By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium
The COT metals markets speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.
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The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-13,545 contracts), Copper (-5,019 contracts), Palladium (-1,282 contracts), Platinum (-1,085 contracts), Silver (-901 contracts) and with Steel (-778 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.
Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (83 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Copper (39 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength scores were Platinum (49 percent) and Palladium (48 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (84.9 percent)
Silver (67.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (68.2 percent)
Copper (38.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.4 percent)
Platinum (48.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.0 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.7 percent)
Gold tops the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.
Platinum (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-27 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.
Move Statistics:
Gold (2.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.2 percent)
Silver (-16.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-24.3 percent)
Copper (-16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.9 percent)
Platinum (-36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-49.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.2 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.0 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 262,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 275,586 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 64.9 | 13.1 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 8.8 | 74.2 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | 262,041 | -285,233 | 23,192 |
| – Gross Longs: | 302,978 | 61,012 | 48,388 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 40,937 | 346,245 | 25,196 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 7.4 to 1 | 0.2 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 79.7 | 19.6 | 54.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.5 | -0.8 | -16.4 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 46.4 | 23.9 | 20.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 19.0 | 63.1 | 8.3 |
| – Net Position: | 40,264 | -57,510 | 17,246 |
| – Gross Longs: | 68,183 | 35,135 | 29,396 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,919 | 92,645 | 12,150 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.4 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.0 | 30.8 | 54.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.5 | 18.5 | -17.7 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,959 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 39.3 | 35.8 | 8.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 36.4 | 41.5 | 5.6 |
| – Net Position: | 5,940 | -11,750 | 5,810 |
| – Gross Longs: | 81,540 | 74,275 | 17,360 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 75,600 | 86,025 | 11,550 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 38.8 | 60.3 | 52.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -16.5 | 19.4 | -28.6 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,829 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 57.4 | 19.4 | 12.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.4 | 41.1 | 4.3 |
| – Net Position: | 13,744 | -21,341 | 7,597 |
| – Gross Longs: | 56,233 | 18,959 | 11,841 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,489 | 40,300 | 4,244 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.5 | 45.1 | 81.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -36.2 | 32.4 | 13.5 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,029 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.5 | 48.6 | 14.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 76.9 | 10.8 | 8.3 |
| – Net Position: | -7,311 | 6,358 | 953 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,633 | 8,182 | 2,356 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 12,944 | 1,824 | 1,403 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.4 to 1 | 4.5 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.4 | 49.3 | 79.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -26.7 | 26.9 | -5.9 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,780 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 23.7 | 67.7 | 0.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 35.3 | 56.2 | 0.7 |
| – Net Position: | -3,558 | 3,550 | 8 |
| – Gross Longs: | 7,338 | 20,911 | 226 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 10,896 | 17,361 | 218 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.2 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 82.7 | 18.1 | 33.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -12.0 | 12.4 | -13.1 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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