Bitcoin: Wedged between 50 and 200-day SMA

• Bitcoin ↓ 2.6% in October

• HBO doc identifies Peter Todd as Bitcoin creator

• Over past year Fed minutes triggered moves of ↑ 2.2% & ↓ 1%
  

• Over past year US CPI triggered moves of ↑ 1.8% & ↓ 2.9%
  

• Technical levels: $63,500 & $61,000

Bitcoin has found itself trapped within a range on the daily charts.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency could be waiting for a fresh fundamental spark to trigger significant price swings.

Despite the growing anticipation, Bitcoin offered a muted response after HBO’s documentary pointed to Canadian Bitcoin developer Peter Todd as Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Todd immediately denied these claims on social media.

This was initially a big deal due to the mystery surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto who is estimated to hold 1.1 million Bitcoins worth $66 billion. If Satoshi’s identity was truly unmasked, it could have various implications for Bitcoin which has skyrocketed over the years and gained mainstream acceptance.

With our attention back to key data, here are 3 things to keep an eye on this week:

  1) Fed speeches + FOMC meeting minutes

Last Friday’s strong jobs report boosted confidence in the US economy and erased hopes around a 50bp Fed cut in November.

It will be interesting to see what Fed officials think about the latest developments and the potential impacts it could have on future rate cuts. Regarding the FOMC minutes, investors will be looking for fresh insight into the outlook for labour markets or future policy moves.

Given how cryptocurrencies have shown sensitivity to interest rates, the incoming event may spark price swings.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the FOMC minutes have triggered upside moves of as much as 2.2% or declines of 1% in a 6-hour window post-release.

  2) US September CPI report

As highlighted in our week ahead report, the incoming inflation data may impact bets around how deep the Fed cuts rates in Q4.

Signs of cooling price pressures may boost expectations around lower interest rates, supporting Bitcoin as a result. The same is true vice versa.

Golden nugget: Over the past year, the US CPI report has triggered upside moves of as much as 1.8% or declines of 2.9% in a 6-hour window post-release.

• A hotter-than-expected CPI report could drag Bitcoin prices lower as the dollar strengthens and rate cut bets cool.

• A soft inflation report may support the argument around lower US interest rates, boosting Bitcoin prices

  3) Technical forces

Bitcoin remains trapped within a range on the daily charts with support around $61,000 and resistance at $63,500 where the 200-day SMA resides. 

• A solid breakout and daily close above $63,500 could encourage a move toward $65,000 $66,000.

• A break below the 100-day SMA at $61,000 could see prices test $60,000. Sustained weakness below here may encourage bears to attack $57,600.