By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Russell & S&P 500
The COT stock markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the stock markets was the Russell-Mini (31,390 contracts), the S&P500-Mini (22,034 contracts), the Nasdaq-Mini (10,189 contracts), the VIX (6,108 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 (2,136 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-2,360 contracts) and with the DowJones-Mini (-6,169 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard
Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)
Strength Scores led by Russell-Mini & DowJones-Mini
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Russell-Mini (83 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (72 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The S&P500-Mini (70 percent) and VIX (68 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
The MSCI EAFE-Mini (44 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently.
Strength Statistics:
VIX (68.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (61.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (69.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (66.5 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (82.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (58.7 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (42.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (83.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (61.0 percent)
Nikkei USD (65.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (47.2 percent)
EAFE-Mini (44.2 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (46.7 percent)
Russell-Mini & Nikkei 225 top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Russell-Mini (34 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The Nikkei 225 (27 percent), the VIX (19 percent) and the S&P500-Mini (15 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.
Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (18.9 percent) vs VIX previous week (-0.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (14.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (18.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (12.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (19.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (8.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (33.6 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (16.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (27.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (11.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (3.5 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (3.5 percent)
Individual Stock Market Charts:
VIX Volatility Futures:
The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -43,545 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 6,108 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -49,653 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| VIX Volatility Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.0 | 51.1 | 6.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.6 | 38.7 | 9.0 |
| – Net Position: | -43,545 | 55,847 | -12,302 |
| – Gross Longs: | 99,536 | 231,326 | 28,694 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 143,081 | 175,479 | 40,996 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 68.0 | 40.9 | 32.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 18.9 | -8.5 | -48.2 |
S&P500 Mini Futures:
The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 22,034 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,956 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.1 | 69.5 | 12.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 14.4 | 75.3 | 8.2 |
| – Net Position: | 33,990 | -118,575 | 84,585 |
| – Gross Longs: | 326,376 | 1,407,615 | 250,827 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 292,386 | 1,526,190 | 166,242 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 69.8 | 23.5 | 72.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.8 | -10.0 | -10.8 |
Dow Jones Mini Futures:
The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 7,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,169 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,538 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 25.4 | 57.5 | 14.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 16.7 | 66.1 | 14.7 |
| – Net Position: | 7,369 | -7,321 | -48 |
| – Gross Longs: | 21,484 | 48,536 | 12,361 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,115 | 55,857 | 12,409 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.5 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 72.3 | 27.6 | 47.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 12.8 | -8.7 | -10.0 |
Nasdaq Mini Futures:
The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,611 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 10,189 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,422 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.4 | 60.0 | 17.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.3 | 72.6 | 9.8 |
| – Net Position: | 12,611 | -31,501 | 18,890 |
| – Gross Longs: | 50,888 | 149,544 | 43,363 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 38,277 | 181,045 | 24,473 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.3 to 1 | 0.8 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 58.7 | 18.0 | 90.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 8.1 | -14.5 | 15.3 |
Russell 2000 Mini Futures:
The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -2,595 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 31,390 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,985 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 16.4 | 74.9 | 7.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 17.0 | 76.4 | 5.0 |
| – Net Position: | -2,595 | -6,502 | 9,097 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,303 | 320,588 | 30,609 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 72,898 | 327,090 | 21,512 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 83.3 | 16.3 | 59.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 33.6 | -32.2 | 9.2 |
Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:
The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,727 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,136 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,863 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 12.3 | 63.0 | 24.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 25.3 | 56.3 | 18.4 |
| – Net Position: | -1,727 | 889 | 838 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,625 | 8,358 | 3,278 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 3,352 | 7,469 | 2,440 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.4 | 32.7 | 59.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 27.1 | -21.1 | -2.8 |
MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:
The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,455 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,360 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,095 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Sell – Short Position.
| MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 7.4 | 89.7 | 2.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 12.5 | 86.1 | 1.1 |
| – Net Position: | -21,455 | 15,280 | 6,175 |
| – Gross Longs: | 31,139 | 378,833 | 10,919 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 52,594 | 363,553 | 4,744 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.6 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 44.2 | 52.4 | 47.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.5 | -2.7 | -3.8 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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