COT Metals Charts: Speculator bets led higher by Gold, Silver & Platinum

August 31, 2024

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 27th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold, Silver & Platinum

The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while only one market had lower speculator contracts.


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Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (3,192 contracts) with Silver (2,862 contracts), Platinum (907 contracts), Palladium (405 contracts) and Steel (279 contracts) also registering positive weeks.

The market with a decline in speculator bets was Copper with a decrease by -3,129 contracts on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Gold & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Gold (100 percent) and Silver (88 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Steel (78 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (15 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (100.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (98.7 percent)
Silver (88.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (84.1 percent)
Copper (49.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (52.1 percent)
Platinum (60.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (57.6 percent)
Palladium (15.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.1 percent)
Steel (77.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (76.6 percent)


Steel & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Steel (7 percent) and Gold (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.  is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Copper (-39 percent) and Platinum (-17 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Move Statistics:
Gold (3.9 percent) vs Gold previous week (15.1 percent)
Silver (-10.8 percent) vs Silver previous week (-15.9 percent)
Copper (-38.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (-33.3 percent)
Platinum (-16.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-20.9 percent)
Palladium (-10.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-19.9 percent)
Steel (7.4 percent) vs Steel previous week (3.3 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 294,445 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,192 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 291,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:65.816.310.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.478.15.1
– Net Position:294,445-322,31927,874
– Gross Longs:343,33085,10254,689
– Gross Shorts:48,885407,42126,815
– Long to Short Ratio:7.0 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.071.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:3.9-5.013.0

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 52,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,862 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 49,324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.425.721.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.676.77.6
– Net Position:52,186-72,14019,954
– Gross Longs:65,71536,44430,674
– Gross Shorts:13,529108,58410,720
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.3 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.014.167.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.812.9-17.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 17,145 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,129 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,274 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:41.532.99.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.545.05.3
– Net Position:17,145-26,0028,857
– Gross Longs:89,06370,51820,271
– Gross Shorts:71,91896,52011,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.248.071.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-38.937.8-12.7

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,733 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 907 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,826 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:55.722.312.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.351.14.4
– Net Position:15,733-22,1576,424
– Gross Longs:42,95117,2049,838
– Gross Shorts:27,21839,3613,414
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.4 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.032.572.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.618.5-12.7

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -11,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,265 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.557.46.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.611.06.5
– Net Position:-11,86011,921-61
– Gross Longs:7,07414,7591,623
– Gross Shorts:18,9342,8381,684
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 15.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.189.030.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.312.7-18.1

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -4,892 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 279 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,171 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 26.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.876.40.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:32.556.50.9
– Net Position:-4,8924,942-50
– Gross Longs:3,17718,955180
– Gross Shorts:8,06914,013230
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.4 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.723.426.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.4-7.77.2

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.