By ForexTime
Monday, 15th July
Tuesday, 16th July
Wednesday, 17th July
Thursday, 18th July
Friday, 19th July
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Our spotlight shines on FXTM’s EU50 which has been trapped within a weekly range since mid-February 2024. Still, the index has gained 10% year-to-date and is 3% away from its 2024 high at 5142.3.
Note: FXTM’s EU50 tracks the underlying Euro Stoxx 50 index – which represents the performance of the 50 largest blue-chip companies operating within eurozone nations.
With all the above discussed, here are 3 forces that may rock the EU50 in the week ahead:
Economic releases from Europe may impact bets around when the ECB cuts rates again in 2024.
Keep an eye on the latest Eurozone industrial production, the final print of June’s inflation reading along with the ZEW survey expectations from Germany – the largest economy in Europe. While the incoming data is unlikely to impact what decision the ECB makes this month, it could expectations for September and beyond.
Markets widely expect the ECB to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday 18th July.
In June, the central bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 but adopted a cautious stance on future moves. Much focus will be on Lagarde’s press conference for additional clues on future policy moves, especially after the recent political drama in Europe.
Traders are currently pricing in an 82% probability of a 25-basis point ECB cut by September with a move fully priced in by October.
Prices remain trapped within a wide range on the daily charts with the first layer of support at 4880 and resistance at 5010. The candlesticks are trading marginally below the 50 and 100-day SMA as of writing with the MACD below zero.
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