By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 14th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the way for the metals this week was Silver with a total gain of 4,145 contracts.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Platinum (-10,954 contracts), Gold (-10,840 contracts), Copper (-6,320 contracts), Steel (-465 contracts) and Palladium (-207 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Nov-14-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 486,634 | 30 | 155,376 | 45 | -177,019 | 56 | 21,643 | 38 |
| Silver | 134,826 | 26 | 22,398 | 50 | -31,634 | 56 | 9,236 | 18 |
| Copper | 206,072 | 47 | -16,608 | 16 | 16,449 | 85 | 159 | 19 |
| Palladium | 27,381 | 100 | -11,230 | 2 | 11,283 | 99 | -53 | 39 |
| Platinum | 85,870 | 97 | -3,996 | 6 | -2,365 | 89 | 6,361 | 53 |
Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (93 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (50 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.
On the downside, Palladium (2 percent), Platinum (6 percent) and Copper (16 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels this week and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (45.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (50.2 percent)
Silver (50.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (44.3 percent)
Copper (16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (22.0 percent)
Platinum (6.4 percent) vs Platinum previous week (31.6 percent)
Palladium (1.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (3.1 percent)
Steel (92.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (94.4 percent)
Gold & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (28 percent) and Steel (15 percent) topped the past six weeks trends for the metals category.
Platinum (-15 percent) and Palladium (-10 percent) were the leaders for the downside trend scores on the week.
Move Statistics:
Gold (28.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (22.2 percent)
Silver (10.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-2.6 percent)
Copper (4.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.0 percent)
Platinum (-15.3 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-0.8 percent)
Palladium (-9.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-4.7 percent)
Steel (14.7 percent) vs Steel previous week (19.4 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 155,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -10,840 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,216 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.3 | 22.8 | 9.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.3 | 59.1 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 155,376 | -177,019 | 21,643 |
| – Gross Longs: | 254,352 | 110,728 | 45,409 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 98,976 | 287,747 | 23,766 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.6 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 1.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 45.5 | 55.6 | 37.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 28.2 | -25.1 | 2.5 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 22,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,145 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,253 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 37.3 | 33.8 | 18.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 20.7 | 57.2 | 12.0 |
| – Net Position: | 22,398 | -31,634 | 9,236 |
| – Gross Longs: | 50,291 | 45,551 | 25,379 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 27,893 | 77,185 | 16,143 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.8 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 1.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 50.2 | 55.6 | 17.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bullish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 10.1 | -1.5 | -32.3 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -16,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -6,320 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,288 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 30.1 | 39.0 | 7.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 38.1 | 31.0 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -16,608 | 16,449 | 159 |
| – Gross Longs: | 61,976 | 80,287 | 15,028 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 78,584 | 63,838 | 14,869 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 16.5 | 85.3 | 19.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.6 | -2.9 | -11.4 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,996 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -10,954 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,958 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.2 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.4 | 29.0 | 11.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 57.0 | 31.8 | 4.1 |
| – Net Position: | -3,996 | -2,365 | 6,361 |
| – Gross Longs: | 44,969 | 24,942 | 9,842 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 48,965 | 27,307 | 3,481 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.9 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 | 2.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.4 | 88.6 | 53.2 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -15.3 | 10.6 | 19.5 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -11,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -207 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,023 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.8 | 49.6 | 7.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 61.8 | 8.4 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | -11,230 | 11,283 | -53 |
| – Gross Longs: | 5,689 | 13,583 | 1,911 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 16,919 | 2,300 | 1,964 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 5.9 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 1.7 | 98.9 | 38.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.9 | 9.0 | 5.4 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -1,768 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -465 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,303 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 19.0 | 75.4 | 2.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.8 | 66.4 | 1.4 |
| – Net Position: | -1,768 | 1,628 | 140 |
| – Gross Longs: | 3,446 | 13,641 | 400 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,214 | 12,013 | 260 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 92.5 | 7.6 | 47.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 14.7 | -15.7 | 28.3 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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