By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Copper & Steel
The COT metals markets speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (6,867 contracts) with Steel (732 contracts) and Palladium (584 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-24,589 contracts) with Silver (-4,761 contracts) and Platinum (-4,710 contracts) also having lower bets on the week.
| Oct-03-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 431,226 | 4 | 91,226 | 17 | -111,982 | 81 | 20,756 | 32 |
| Silver | 125,847 | 14 | 15,344 | 40 | -30,358 | 57 | 15,014 | 50 |
| Copper | 208,795 | 49 | -21,912 | 12 | 19,952 | 88 | 1,960 | 31 |
| Palladium | 18,421 | 86 | -9,718 | 9 | 9,861 | 93 | -143 | 33 |
| Platinum | 81,529 | 85 | 2,616 | 22 | -7,514 | 78 | 4,898 | 34 |
Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (65 percent) and Silver (40 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Palladium (9 percent), Copper (12 percent) and Gold (17 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (17.2 percent) vs Gold previous week (28.0 percent)
Silver (40.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (46.9 percent)
Copper (11.9 percent) vs Copper previous week (6.0 percent)
Platinum (21.6 percent) vs Platinum previous week (32.5 percent)
Palladium (8.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (4.9 percent)
Steel (65.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (62.9 percent)
Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (4 percent) and Platinum (4 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Steel (-6 percent), Gold (-5 percent) and Palladium (-2 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-4.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (-2.3 percent)
Silver (3.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (17.5 percent)
Copper (2.3 percent) vs Copper previous week (-2.7 percent)
Platinum (4.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.9 percent)
Palladium (-2.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.0 percent)
Steel (-5.8 percent) vs Steel previous week (-8.9 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 91,226 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -24,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 115,815 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 53.0 | 25.7 | 10.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 31.8 | 51.6 | 5.7 |
| – Net Position: | 91,226 | -111,982 | 20,756 |
| – Gross Longs: | 228,406 | 110,666 | 45,256 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 137,180 | 222,648 | 24,500 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.7 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.8 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 17.2 | 80.7 | 32.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -4.7 | 3.5 | 4.2 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 15,344 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -4,761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,105 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 40.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.8 | 30.0 | 22.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 28.7 | 54.1 | 10.6 |
| – Net Position: | 15,344 | -30,358 | 15,014 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,405 | 37,769 | 28,386 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 36,061 | 68,127 | 13,372 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.4 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 40.1 | 57.1 | 49.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 3.5 | -7.9 | 22.9 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -21,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 6,867 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,779 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 33.2 | 41.1 | 7.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 43.7 | 31.5 | 6.7 |
| – Net Position: | -21,912 | 19,952 | 1,960 |
| – Gross Longs: | 69,273 | 85,785 | 15,950 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 91,185 | 65,833 | 13,990 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.8 to 1 | 1.3 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 11.9 | 88.2 | 30.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 2.3 | -2.1 | -1.0 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 2,616 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,710 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,326 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.7 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.8 | 27.5 | 10.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 52.6 | 36.8 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | 2,616 | -7,514 | 4,898 |
| – Gross Longs: | 45,496 | 22,452 | 8,772 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 42,880 | 29,966 | 3,874 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.1 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 21.6 | 77.9 | 33.7 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 4.1 | -2.5 | -7.7 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -9,718 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 584 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,302 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 21.8 | 59.9 | 8.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 74.5 | 6.4 | 9.4 |
| – Net Position: | -9,718 | 9,861 | -143 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,007 | 11,038 | 1,588 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 13,725 | 1,177 | 1,731 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 9.4 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 8.8 | 93.3 | 33.1 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.4 | 1.1 | 11.5 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,487 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 732 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,219 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 8.2 | 85.9 | 1.1 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 37.0 | 56.4 | 1.7 |
| – Net Position: | -5,487 | 5,606 | -119 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,560 | 16,354 | 214 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,047 | 10,748 | 333 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 65.4 | 35.4 | 19.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -5.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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