By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday September 26th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Silver & Palladium
The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just one out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the metals was Silver with a gain of 4,874 contracts.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-19,348 contracts), Copper (-12,479 contracts), Platinum (-2,668 contracts), Steel (-1,064 contracts) and Palladium (-72 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.
| Sep-26-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 435,620 | 6 | 115,815 | 28 | -134,836 | 72 | 19,021 | 28 |
| Silver | 126,206 | 15 | 20,105 | 47 | -33,080 | 54 | 12,975 | 38 |
| Copper | 216,031 | 55 | -28,779 | 6 | 27,192 | 94 | 1,587 | 28 |
| Palladium | 18,004 | 83 | -10,302 | 5 | 10,458 | 97 | -156 | 32 |
| Platinum | 72,957 | 61 | 7,326 | 32 | -12,349 | 68 | 5,023 | 35 |
Strength Scores led by Steel & Silver
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (60 percent) and Silver (47 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Copper (6 percent) and Palladium (5 percent) come in at the lowest strength level currently and are both in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (28.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (36.6 percent)
Silver (46.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (40.0 percent)
Copper (6.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (16.8 percent)
Platinum (32.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (38.6 percent)
Palladium (4.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (5.4 percent)
Steel (60.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (63.5 percent)
Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (18 percent) and Platinum (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Steel (-9 percent), Palladium (-6 percent) and Copper (-3 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-2.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (-3.4 percent)
Silver (17.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (2.7 percent)
Copper (-2.7 percent) vs Copper previous week (-5.4 percent)
Platinum (16.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (16.2 percent)
Palladium (-6.0 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-0.3 percent)
Steel (-8.5 percent) vs Steel previous week (-6.4 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 115,815 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -19,348 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 135,163 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.6 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 54.1 | 25.4 | 10.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 27.5 | 56.4 | 6.0 |
| – Net Position: | 115,815 | -134,836 | 19,021 |
| – Gross Longs: | 235,560 | 110,844 | 45,213 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 119,745 | 245,680 | 26,192 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.0 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 1.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 28.0 | 71.9 | 27.6 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.3 | 2.7 | -4.5 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 20,105 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 4,874 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,231 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 40.8 | 32.0 | 20.3 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 24.9 | 58.2 | 10.0 |
| – Net Position: | 20,105 | -33,080 | 12,975 |
| – Gross Longs: | 51,539 | 40,346 | 25,601 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 31,434 | 73,426 | 12,626 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.5 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.9 | 53.8 | 38.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 17.5 | -11.9 | -13.6 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -28,779 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -12,479 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,300 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.5 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 32.7 | 40.5 | 7.4 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 46.0 | 27.9 | 6.6 |
| – Net Position: | -28,779 | 27,192 | 1,587 |
| – Gross Longs: | 70,663 | 87,518 | 15,925 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 99,442 | 60,326 | 14,338 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 6.0 | 94.1 | 28.5 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -2.7 | 5.4 | -21.7 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 7,326 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 9,994 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 55.2 | 25.3 | 11.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 45.2 | 42.2 | 4.9 |
| – Net Position: | 7,326 | -12,349 | 5,023 |
| – Gross Longs: | 40,305 | 18,443 | 8,612 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 32,979 | 30,792 | 3,589 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.2 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.5 | 67.9 | 35.4 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 16.9 | -13.4 | -11.2 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -10,302 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -72 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,230 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 22.5 | 63.5 | 8.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 79.7 | 5.4 | 8.9 |
| – Net Position: | -10,302 | 10,458 | -156 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,043 | 11,424 | 1,443 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,345 | 966 | 1,599 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 11.8 to 1 | 0.9 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.9 | 97.2 | 32.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -6.0 | 4.8 | 8.6 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,219 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,064 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,155 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 5.7 | 87.2 | 0.7 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 33.3 | 58.5 | 1.8 |
| – Net Position: | -6,219 | 6,460 | -241 |
| – Gross Longs: | 1,283 | 19,640 | 164 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 7,502 | 13,180 | 405 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.2 to 1 | 1.5 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.1 | 41.0 | 6.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -8.5 | 9.2 | -22.6 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
See our Weekly Trend Model Readings and Actions for each COT Futures Market and Category. All information contained in this data are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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