By InvestMacro
Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 20th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.
Weekly Speculator Changes led by Palladium & Gold
The COT metals markets speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other two markets had lower speculator contracts.
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Leading the gains for the metals was Copper (14,794 contracts) with Gold (2,766 contracts), Palladium (501 contracts) and Steel (175 contracts) also showing positive weeks.
The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-3,678 contracts) and Platinum (-2,500 contracts) having lower bets on the week.
Copper Speculators raise their bets into first bullish position in 9 weeks
Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the gains for the Copper speculative positions. The large speculator position in Copper futures rose by +14,794 contracts this week following a gain by +13,050 contracts last week. The speculator position has now risen by over +37,590 contracts in total over the past three weeks.
This renewed positive sentiment has brought the net position standing back into a small bullish level after spending the past eight weeks in bearish territory.
Despite the bullish return of speculators, Copper prices closed out the week lower following three straight weeks of gains. The futures price touched a six-week high on Thursday at 3.967 before turning lower and finishing the week at 3.8035.
| Jun-20-2023 | OI | OI-Index | Spec-Net | Spec-Index | Com-Net | COM-Index | Smalls-Net | Smalls-Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | 438,037 | 7 | 162,975 | 49 | -186,537 | 52 | 23,562 | 39 |
| Silver | 152,633 | 40 | 20,058 | 47 | -36,210 | 50 | 16,152 | 56 |
| Copper | 204,399 | 46 | 1,888 | 32 | -4,003 | 68 | 2,115 | 32 |
| Palladium | 12,304 | 87 | -6,635 | 5 | 7,214 | 96 | -579 | 7 |
| Platinum | 69,436 | 70 | 19,472 | 61 | -25,052 | 42 | 5,580 | 43 |
Strength Scores led by Steel & Platinum
COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (68 percent) and Platinum (61 percent) lead the metals markets this week.
On the downside, Palladium (5 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).
Strength Statistics:
Gold (48.8 percent) vs Gold previous week (47.6 percent)
Silver (46.9 percent) vs Silver previous week (52.1 percent)
Copper (32.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.7 percent)
Platinum (60.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (66.3 percent)
Palladium (4.6 percent) vs Palladium previous week (0.0 percent)
Steel (67.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (67.3 percent)
Copper & Steel top the 6-Week Strength Trends
COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (23 percent) and Steel (6 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for metals.
Platinum (-20 percent), Silver (-18 percent) and Gold (-14 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.
Move Statistics:
Gold (-14.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-15.6 percent)
Silver (-17.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (-11.7 percent)
Copper (23.1 percent) vs Copper previous week (7.6 percent)
Platinum (-19.9 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-10.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.1 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-6.4 percent)
Steel (5.9 percent) vs Steel previous week (4.5 percent)
Individual Markets:
Gold Comex Futures:
The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 162,975 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,766 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 160,209 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.0 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Gold Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 52.3 | 27.7 | 10.8 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 15.1 | 70.3 | 5.4 |
| – Net Position: | 162,975 | -186,537 | 23,562 |
| – Gross Longs: | 229,308 | 121,419 | 47,402 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 66,333 | 307,956 | 23,840 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 3.5 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.0 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 48.8 | 51.9 | 39.0 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -14.5 | 13.9 | -7.9 |
Silver Comex Futures:
The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 20,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,678 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,736 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.3 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Silver Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 34.4 | 30.1 | 18.5 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.3 | 53.8 | 7.9 |
| – Net Position: | 20,058 | -36,210 | 16,152 |
| – Gross Longs: | 52,547 | 45,941 | 28,208 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 32,489 | 82,151 | 12,056 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.6 to 1 | 0.6 to 1 | 2.3 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 46.9 | 50.0 | 56.3 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -17.6 | 12.1 | 13.0 |
Copper Grade #1 Futures:
The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 1,888 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 14,794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,906 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Copper Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 31.7 | 42.4 | 8.2 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 30.7 | 44.4 | 7.2 |
| – Net Position: | 1,888 | -4,003 | 2,115 |
| – Gross Longs: | 64,740 | 86,761 | 16,759 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 62,852 | 90,764 | 14,644 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 1.0 to 1 | 1.0 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 32.5 | 68.3 | 31.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish | Bullish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 23.1 | -19.7 | -19.0 |
Platinum Futures:
The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,472 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,500 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,972 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.8 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Platinum Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 49.1 | 28.3 | 12.9 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.0 | 64.4 | 4.8 |
| – Net Position: | 19,472 | -25,052 | 5,580 |
| – Gross Longs: | 34,059 | 19,682 | 8,936 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 14,587 | 44,734 | 3,356 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 2.3 to 1 | 0.4 to 1 | 2.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 60.5 | 41.7 | 42.8 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -19.9 | 15.4 | 15.7 |
Palladium Futures:
The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -6,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 501 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,136 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.
| Palladium Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 20.5 | 67.2 | 9.6 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 74.4 | 8.6 | 14.3 |
| – Net Position: | -6,635 | 7,214 | -579 |
| – Gross Longs: | 2,525 | 8,268 | 1,182 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 9,160 | 1,054 | 1,761 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.3 to 1 | 7.8 to 1 | 0.7 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 4.6 | 96.4 | 6.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bearish-Extreme | Bullish-Extreme | Bearish-Extreme |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | -9.1 | 10.3 | -15.7 |
Steel Futures Futures:
The Steel Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,855 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,030 net contracts.
This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 32.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.9 percent.
Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend
Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.
| Steel Futures Statistics | SPECULATORS | COMMERCIALS | SMALL TRADERS |
| – Percent of Open Interest Longs: | 14.8 | 78.0 | 1.0 |
| – Percent of Open Interest Shorts: | 21.5 | 71.8 | 0.4 |
| – Net Position: | -1,855 | 1,710 | 145 |
| – Gross Longs: | 4,085 | 21,522 | 264 |
| – Gross Shorts: | 5,940 | 19,812 | 119 |
| – Long to Short Ratio: | 0.7 to 1 | 1.1 to 1 | 2.2 to 1 |
| NET POSITION TREND: | |||
| – Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): | 67.8 | 32.0 | 38.9 |
| – Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): | Bullish | Bearish | Bearish |
| NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX: | |||
| – 6-Week Change in Strength Index: | 5.9 | -6.4 | 22.1 |
Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter
*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.
The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.
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