07 Jan

Metals Speculators push their Platinum bullish bets to 91-week high

January 7, 2023

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 3rd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Platinum & Gold

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

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Leading the gains for the metals was Platinum (5,837 contracts) with Gold (4,786 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Copper (-5,399 contracts), Palladium (-336 contracts) and Silver (-93 contracts) registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued gains in bets for the Platinum positions. The large speculator position in Platinum futures rose this week for a second straight week and for the fifth time over the past six weeks. Over the past fourteen weeks, Platinum bets have been higher in twelve of those weeks. The speculator position (sitting at +30,503 contracts) has now risen to the most bullish level since April 6th of 2021, a span of 91 weeks.

Platinum prices have been moving higher since hitting a multi-year low in early September as well. Since falling to a low just beneath $800 on September 1st, Platinum futures have been in a strong uptrend and closed this week above the $1100 price level for an almost 40 percent rise (since Sept. 1st) and the highest weekly close since March 2022.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jan-03-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Gold449,3937141,66630-159,9747018,30826
Silver131,990930,93448-44,2115313,27737
Copper164,59413-4,67533-163674,83853
Palladium8,45612-2,542102,4228712049
Platinum69,6873830,50350-33,157542,6544

 

Strength Scores led by Platinum & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Platinum (50 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (48 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (10 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (30 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (29.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (28.1 percent)
Silver (48.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.3 percent)
Copper (32.6 percent) vs Copper previous week (36.9 percent)
Platinum (50.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (42.3 percent)
Palladium (9.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.0 percent)

 

Silver & Platinum top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Silver (16 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Platinum (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Copper (-6 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (8.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (3.5 percent)
Silver (15.6 percent) vs Silver previous week (14.8 percent)
Copper (-6.2 percent) vs Copper previous week (-7.2 percent)
Platinum (10.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (2.9 percent)
Palladium (-9.3 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-7.4 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 141,666 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 4,786 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 136,880 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.8 percent.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:51.425.39.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.860.95.3
– Net Position:141,666-159,97418,308
– Gross Longs:230,801113,52042,337
– Gross Shorts:89,135273,49424,029
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.4 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.769.825.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.5-9.211.0

 

Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -93 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,027 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:43.833.517.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.467.07.8
– Net Position:30,934-44,21113,277
– Gross Longs:57,80144,22923,576
– Gross Shorts:26,86788,44010,299
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.253.536.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.6-15.712.2

 

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -4,675 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,399 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 724 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.741.910.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:37.642.07.4
– Net Position:-4,675-1634,838
– Gross Longs:57,19168,90517,079
– Gross Shorts:61,86669,06812,241
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.666.953.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.24.610.6

 

Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 30,503 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 5,837 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,666 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.9 percent.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.626.99.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.974.56.1
– Net Position:30,503-33,1572,654
– Gross Longs:41,55518,7346,879
– Gross Shorts:11,05251,8914,225
– Long to Short Ratio:3.8 to 10.4 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.154.23.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.8-7.1-31.8

 

Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,542 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -336 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,206 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.9 percent.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.155.615.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:55.126.913.6
– Net Position:-2,5422,422120
– Gross Longs:2,1204,7001,270
– Gross Shorts:4,6622,2781,150
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.1 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.886.848.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.37.811.9

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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