17 Dec

COT Speculator Extremes: Soybean Meal, 5-Year Bond lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

December 17, 2022

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on December 13th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Top Bullish and Top Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table).

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing this week. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 100.0 percent score or at the exact top of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score shows a gain of 7.7 over the past six-weeks.

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The overall net speculator position was a total of 133,532 net contracts this week with a rise of 11,358 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Bloomberg Commodity Index

The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index speculator level is now at a 95.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the strength score was a gain of 11.3 percent.

The speculator position registered -3,090 net contracts this week with a weekly edge higher by 149 contract in speculator bets.

Nasdaq

The Nasdaq speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Nasdaq speculator level resides at a 85.8 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at a plus 19.2 change over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was 19,198 net contracts this week with a boost of 5,681 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

5-Year Bond

The 5-Year Bond speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The 5-Year Bond speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score or at the bottom of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -19.6 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -691,537 net contracts this week with a drop of -32,931 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -23.7 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -39,918 net contracts this week with a tiny decline of -21 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level resides at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is -4.7 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -101,471 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,481 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

WTI Crude Oil

The WTI Crude Oil speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The WTI Crude Oil speculator level is at a 5.0 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score has fallen by -6.7 percentage points over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was 229,559 net contracts this week with a dip of -2,161 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Coffee

Finally, the Coffee speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The Coffee speculator level is at a 7.7 percent score of its 3-year range. The trend for the speculator strength score is fall of -13.4 over the past six-weeks.

The speculator position was -9,470 net contracts this week with a gain of 5,172 contract in this week’s speculator bets.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.


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