WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil led last week’s speculator changes

November 14, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The COT release was delayed due to a Federal Holiday last week.

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 8th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

WTI Crude Oil & Heating Oil lead the Weekly Speculator Changes

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher last week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

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Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,981 contracts) with Heating Oil (6,578 contracts), Gasoline (5,069 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (2,608 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Natural Gas (-3,655 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (-293 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Nov-08-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,446,658	1	274,790	17	-301,325	83	26,535	43
Gold	488,471	16	82,338	10	-91,144	91	8,806	2
Silver	140,437	13	13,003	28	-22,088	74	9,085	14
Copper	169,929	10	2,913	39	-3,426	64	513	28
Palladium	9,467	17	-2,410	10	2,573	89	-163	32
Platinum	60,301	22	19,449	35	-23,295	67	3,846	20
Natural Gas	982,596	7	-152,308	33	120,222	69	32,086	56
Brent	135,078	1	-22,201	74	18,085	23	4,116	65
Heating Oil	266,730	23	27,958	84	-51,059	17	23,101	78
Soybeans	611,011	8	87,809	40	-60,966	68	-26,843	26
Corn	1,484,427	31	301,554	69	-254,182	36	-47,372	16
Coffee	217,646	25	-4,683	4	1,912	100	2,771	38
Sugar	766,340	14	90,182	44	-122,561	56	32,379	48
Wheat	350,843	27	-17,214	0	23,686	93	-6,472	77

Bloomberg Commodity Index & Heating Oil lead the Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) and Heating Oil (83.6 percent) lead the energy category and are both in bullish extreme positions (above 80 percent). Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Gasoline (20.8 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (16.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (11.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (74.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (74.5 percent)
Natural Gas (32.9 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.9 percent)
Gasoline (20.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (15.7 percent)
Heating Oil (83.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (73.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (94.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Brent Crude Oil & Heating Oil top the Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (24.3 percent), the Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) fill out the next top movers in the latest trends data.

Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) came in as the only market with lower trend scores for last week.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (12.9 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (3.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (32.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (26.9 percent)
Natural Gas (-0.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (2.1 percent)
Gasoline (4.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-3.4 percent)
Heating Oil (24.3 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (10.7 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (16.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (16.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

The WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 274,790 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 19,981 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.5	38.1	5.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.5	59.0	3.5
– Net Position:	274,790	-301,325	26,535
– Gross Longs:	368,585	551,749	77,784
– Gross Shorts:	93,795	853,074	51,249
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.9	82.9	43.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	12.9	-14.7	9.7

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

The Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,201 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -293 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,908 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.9 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	23.1	44.3	6.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.5	30.9	3.7
– Net Position:	-22,201	18,085	4,116
– Gross Longs:	31,215	59,785	9,133
– Gross Shorts:	53,416	41,700	5,017
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.0	23.4	64.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	32.0	-37.2	45.3

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -152,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,655 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -148,653 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent.

Natural Gas Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.6	45.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	33.4	3.6
– Net Position:	-152,308	120,222	32,086
– Gross Longs:	133,199	448,264	67,376
– Gross Shorts:	285,507	328,042	35,290
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	32.9	68.8	56.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-0.1	-0.3	2.6

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 48,753 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 5,069 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 43,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.5 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	33.6	45.0	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.9	68.9	4.8
– Net Position:	48,753	-59,226	10,473
– Gross Longs:	83,270	111,348	22,245
– Gross Shorts:	34,517	170,574	11,772
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.8	74.5	82.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-11.8	50.8

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,958 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 6,578 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,380 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent.

Heating Oil Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.6	41.5	17.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.1	60.7	9.1
– Net Position:	27,958	-51,059	23,101
– Gross Longs:	46,818	110,820	47,495
– Gross Shorts:	18,860	161,879	24,394
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	83.6	16.9	78.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.3	-31.4	44.7

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

The Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -3,439 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,047 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	21.3	75.2	0.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.2	65.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-3,439	5,797	-2,358
– Gross Longs:	12,268	43,434	373
– Gross Shorts:	15,707	37,637	2,731
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.3	15.6	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	16.0	-6.3	-54.6

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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