By JustForex
The European Central Bank raised its three official interest rates by 75 basis points, the largest interest rate change in ECB history. The Central Bank also warned of further hikes as it struggled to get record-high inflation back under control. “Based on its current assessment, the Governing Council expects to raise interest rates even further in the next few meetings to reduce demand and guard against the risk of persistent increases in inflation expectations,” the ECB said in a statement. Goldman Sachs recommends investors sell the euro against the Swiss franc after the ECB’s record rate hike, as they believe it is likely that the Swiss National Bank will want to take action to stop the franc from depreciating.
From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish, but the price is trading at the priority change level, and the probability of a trend change is very high. Technically, the price is still trading in a wide balance with a range of 0.9912-1.0077. The MACD indicator became positive, there is buying pressure. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0016 or 0.9971. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance levels of 1.0077, but only after an additional confirmation in the form of a false breakout of the level and reverse initiative.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out of the 1.0077 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.
British Prime Minister Liz Truss on Thursday announced a broad stimulus package to help Britons cope with rising energy bills and attract investment in the energy sector. In her first major step in her leadership position, Truss announced that households will pay no more than 2,500 pounds ($2,880) a year each of the next two years. The restriction will take effect October 1. According to politicians, such a move will reduce inflation to 5%. A similar guarantee for businesses will be in effect for the next six months. Then further support will be given to vulnerable sectors. Reports also indicate that there will be a £40 billion package to support businesses with their energy costs, bringing the total expected amount of support measures to 180 billion.
From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading at the level of moving averages, and the MACD indicator is positive again. It is best to look for sell trades on intraday time frames, the nearest resistance level is 1.1669. Buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1518, but only with confirmation.
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Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1669 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.
Japan’s GDP increased from 2.2% to 3.5% (y/y) in the second quarter, showing confidence in the economy. But it had little effect on the Japanese Yen. The dollar index rose against the yen on Thursday amid new announcements by Fed officials to raise the rate by 0.75% at the September 20-21 meeting. USD/JPY quotes have been rising for 9 out of the last 10 trading sessions. Analysts say the worst is not over for the Japanese yen, and it could fall even more in the coming months. Analysts think that the rate can easily go to 150 or even 160.
From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. Today, the price has fallen below the average lines, the buyers’ pressure has eased. The MACD indicator has become negative. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level 142.83 or 141.77, but with additional confirmation. Sell positions can be searched for on the intraday time frames from the level of 144.05, but only with an additional confirmation, because fundamentally USD/JPY quotes are inclined to grow.
Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 141.00, the downtrend will likely resume.
The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly dependent on the dynamics of oil prices as well as the dynamics of the dollar index. At the moment, the Canadian dollar is strengthening for two reasons. The first is that the Bank of Canada is holding the highest interest rate among major economies. The second is that crude oil prices increased by 1% on Thursday after falling to a seven-month low in the previous session, as Russia threatened to halt oil and gas exports to some buyers.
From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price is now trading below the moving averages, the MACD indicator has become negative, and there is slight seller pressure. Under such market conditions, buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level 1.3020, but only with confirmation. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3108, but only after the additional confirmation.
Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the 1.3020 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.
By JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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