COT Metals Speculator bets fall this week led by Gold & Silver

September 11, 2022

The latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) showed that speculator positioning was lower across the board. The latest COT data for Week 36 is updated through Tuesday September 6th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes are lower led by Gold & Silver

The COT precious metals speculator bets were lower this week as all five of the metals markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Gold (-13,877 contracts) with Silver (-4,513 contracts), Platinum (-1,373 contracts), Copper (-735 contracts) and Palladium (-473 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Highlighting the COT metals changes this week is the continued decline in the Gold speculator positions. Gold speculative bets have declined for four straight weeks and by a total of -38,994 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has brought the overall Gold speculator standing (currently at +103,857 contracts) to the lowest level in six weeks, dating back to July 26th. The average speculator position over 2022 has been a total of +185,566 contracts and compared to this week’s position, illustrates the weakness in speculator sentiment for Gold. The futures price is currently in a downtrend after hitting a high over $2,078 in March of this year and closed this week at $1,728.

The Silver speculative positioning has continued to fall lower. The Silver speculator bets have declined for three straight weeks and have now been in a bearish position for three straight weeks as well. The overall speculator standing is currently at -12,784 contracts which is the lowest or most bearish level since May 28th of 2019, a span of 171 weeks. The Silver futures price has dipped below $18 in recent weeks but has found consistent support at that level. This week the Silver price closed higher for the week at $18.75 following three straight weeks of decline.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Sep-06-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,480,320	1	214,478	1	-240,417	99	25,939	43
Gold	465,908	4	103,857	4	-114,064	98	10,207	0
Silver	138,300	5	-12,784	0	5,055	100	7,729	6
Copper	160,251	2	-23,990	19	26,820	84	-2,830	9
Palladium	6,065	1	-1,602	14	2,129	87	-527	13
Platinum	78,610	53	-6,751	0	3,152	100	3,599	12
Natural Gas	984,642	5	-138,638	37	105,802	64	32,836	58
Brent	163,666	11	-36,388	50	32,508	47	3,880	62
Heating Oil	280,210	27	17,860	69	-36,089	33	18,229	62
Soybeans	606,187	7	81,251	38	-50,826	71	-30,425	20
Corn	1,280,087	2	286,547	67	-230,702	39	-55,845	11
Coffee	193,938	7	47,168	80	-49,276	25	2,108	19
Sugar	760,601	11	57,771	49	-61,944	56	4,173	13
Wheat	289,329	0	-9,759	6	13,677	79	-3,918	90

Strength Scores

Strength scores (a measure of the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that all the metals markets are currently in bearish extreme scores under 20 percent. Copper (18.8 percent) is at the highest level of the metals currently followed by Palladium (13.8 percent) and Gold (4.3 percent). Silver (0.0 percent) and Platinum (0.0 percent) are currently at the bottom of their 3-year ranges of strength scores.

Strength Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (9.6 percent)
Silver (0.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (5.0 percent)
Copper (18.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (19.4 percent)
Platinum (0.0 percent) vs Platinum previous week (1.8 percent)
Palladium (13.8 percent) vs Palladium previous week (16.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Palladium (10.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals this week. Gold (4.3 percent) and Copper (2.0 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data.

Silver (-9.1 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next market with lower trend scores was Platinum at -3.1 percent.

Move Statistics:
Gold (4.3 percent) vs Gold previous week (8.7 percent)
Silver (-9.1 percent) vs Silver previous week (-10.6 percent)
Copper (2.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (0.5 percent)
Platinum (-3.1 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-1.5 percent)
Palladium (10.2 percent) vs Palladium previous week (14.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 103,857 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -13,877 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 117,734 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	49.7	27.8	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.4	52.3	6.1
– Net Position:	103,857	-114,064	10,207
– Gross Longs:	231,527	129,683	38,798
– Gross Shorts:	127,670	243,747	28,591
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.5 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.3	98.0	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-2.0	-14.7

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -12,784 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -8,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.4	40.4	16.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.6	36.7	10.8
– Net Position:	-12,784	5,055	7,729
– Gross Longs:	51,714	55,823	22,687
– Gross Shorts:	64,498	50,768	14,958
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	6.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.1	7.3	2.8

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,990 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -735 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -23,255 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.9 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.1	51.2	7.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	34.5	9.6
– Net Position:	-23,990	26,820	-2,830
– Gross Longs:	46,581	82,038	12,521
– Gross Shorts:	70,571	55,218	15,351
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	18.8	84.3	8.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.0	-0.0	-14.8

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -6,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,373 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,378 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	38.7	10.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.3	34.7	5.6
– Net Position:	-6,751	3,152	3,599
– Gross Longs:	33,598	30,451	8,025
– Gross Shorts:	40,349	27,299	4,426
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	12.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.1	4.2	-14.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,602 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -473 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,129 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.4 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.2	62.9	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.6	27.8	22.9
– Net Position:	-1,602	2,129	-527
– Gross Longs:	1,344	3,814	863
– Gross Shorts:	2,946	1,685	1,390
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.8	86.7	13.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.2	-9.9	-2.4

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

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