The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.07.29

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0200
• Prev Close: 1.0196
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04%

US gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.9% y/y in the second quarter. Consumer spending grew at the slowest pace in two years, and business spending declined, raising the risk that the economy is on the brink of a recession. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth of 0.5%. Today in Europe, there will be many vital macroeconomic statistics, and volatility will be higher.

• Support levels: 1.0170, 1.0142, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
• Resistance levels: 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance, and buyer pressure prevails now. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0170 or 1.0142. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0284, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone French GDP (q/q) at 08:30 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Spanish GDP (q/q) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone German GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US PCE Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
• – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2149
• Prev Close: 1.2177
• % chg. over the last day: +0.23%

Brexit is only one of the major problems facing the next British prime minister. Other problems include high inflation, the cost of living crisis, gov sector wages, and the healthcare crisis. Add to that the interest rate differential between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve, and you get a rough picture of how much stronger the US dollar is now than the British currency. However, the British pound has been strengthening for the last two weeks as the US Dollar Index has declined amid a decrease in hawkish sentiment by the US Fed.

• Support levels: 1.2143, 1.2089, 1.2063, 1.1907, 1.1803
• Resistance levels: 1.2238, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Buyer pressure remains. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone but shows signs of divergence already in several time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level 1.2143 or 1.2089, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2238, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2006 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 136.48
• Prev Close: 134.22
• % chg. over the last day: -1.68%

Tokyo’s core Consumer Price Index rose from 2.1% to 2.3% annually. The unemployment rate remained at 2.6%. Retail sales increased by 1.5% in June, while the industrial production index added 8.9% in the last month against an expected 7.5% decline. The Japanese Yen has strengthened today in the background of such production growth.

• Support levels: 131.67, 130.99
• Resistance levels: 134.72, 135.10, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. Over the last three trading sessions, the Japanese yen has been getting stronger. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the sellers’ pressure is still there, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 131.67, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 134.72 or 135.10 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 137.11, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
• – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2819
• Prev Close: 1.2805
• % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The situation on the USD/CAD currency pair remains the same. When the US Dollar Index is falling and oil prices are rising, it is a green light for the Canadian currency, because the Canadian is a commodity currency and is directly dependent on these indicators. The interest rates of the central banks of the USA and Canada are at the same level now, so the price will keep a certain balance without any significant trends.

• Support levels: 1.2781
• Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2923, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. Currently, the price is forming a wide balance and trading on the lower border of the descending channel. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence, which indicates that it is harder for the price to move lower. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2880, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2781 or the channel’s lower border, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.3006 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).