COT Week 27 Charts: Bond Market Speculators bets higher overall led by Ultra US Bonds & 2-Year Bonds

July 9, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 5th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

COT bonds market speculator bets were mostly higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning this week while three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Ultra US Bond (19,328 contracts) and the 2-Year Bond (15,076 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (11,180 contracts), the Long US Bond (10,580 contracts) and the Ultra 10-Year (3,338 contracts) also having positive weeks. Meanwhile, leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Eurodollar (-192,721 contracts) and the 5-Year Bond (-51,789 contracts) with the Fed Funds (-24,396 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

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Strength scores (measuring the 3-Year range of Speculator positions, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the US Treasury Bond (75.6 percent) is at the highest level of the bonds markets again this week followed by the 2-Year Bond (64.7 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (55.2 percent). On the lower end, the 3-Month Eurodollars (9.7 percent) is the weakest bond market among the speculators and is in a bearish-extreme level again this week. The Ultra 10-Year Bonds (22.9 percent) comes in as the next weakest speculator strength score at the moment but has been on the rise (see chart below) and has come out of the bearish extreme level of the past few weeks.

Strength score trends (or move index, that calculate 6-week changes in strength scores) shows that the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (19.8 percent), the 3-Month Eurodollars (8.9 percent) and the 10-Year Bonds (8.3 percent) are leading the rising trend scores over the past six weeks. The 5-Year Bonds (-23.5 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-18.3 percent) leads the trends on the downside while the 2-Year Bonds (-10.5 percent) and the Ultra US Treasury Bond (-4.4 percent) also show negative six-week trends.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jul-05-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	9,569,471	14	-2,349,151	10	2,628,720	88	-279,569	43
FedFunds	1,599,372	47	96,186	51	-88,543	49	-7,643	40
2-Year	2,103,356	14	-87,042	65	171,591	57	-84,549	13
Long T-Bond	1,192,980	47	-27,673	76	22,028	18	5,645	57
10-Year	3,469,680	28	-170,500	47	303,820	58	-133,320	48
5-Year	4,013,995	52	-254,453	39	404,953	63	-150,500	40

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,349,151 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -192,721 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,156,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.9 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.8	71.0	4.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.4	43.6	7.4
– Net Position:	-2,349,151	2,628,720	-279,569
– Gross Longs:	557,177	6,798,600	424,934
– Gross Shorts:	2,906,328	4,169,880	704,503
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.7	88.0	42.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.9	-10.7	25.4

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week was a net position of 96,186 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -24,396 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 120,582 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 40.3 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.6	72.4	2.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	6.6	77.9	3.0
– Net Position:	96,186	-88,543	-7,643
– Gross Longs:	201,100	1,157,169	40,944
– Gross Shorts:	104,914	1,245,712	48,587
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.9 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.5	49.1	40.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-6.1	-9.3

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -87,042 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 15,076 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -102,118 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.3 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.0	78.2	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.1	70.0	10.9
– Net Position:	-87,042	171,591	-84,549
– Gross Longs:	273,378	1,643,875	144,139
– Gross Shorts:	360,420	1,472,284	228,688
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	64.7	57.4	13.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.5	14.2	-5.4

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -254,453 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -51,789 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -202,664 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.0	83.9	7.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	73.8	11.3
– Net Position:	-254,453	404,953	-150,500
– Gross Longs:	280,011	3,368,874	303,153
– Gross Shorts:	534,464	2,963,921	453,653
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.6	62.7	39.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.5	13.7	5.8

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week was a net position of -170,500 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -181,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.6	79.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.5	71.0	12.8
– Net Position:	-170,500	303,820	-133,320
– Gross Longs:	297,724	2,767,198	310,990
– Gross Shorts:	468,224	2,463,378	444,310
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.1 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	46.5	58.0	48.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-8.7	4.3

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week was a net position of -22,742 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,080 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	5.2	82.5	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.2	69.9	22.4
– Net Position:	-22,742	146,293	-123,551
– Gross Longs:	60,503	959,975	136,617
– Gross Shorts:	83,245	813,682	260,168
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	22.9	77.8	42.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.8	-16.8	-6.6

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -27,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,580 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -38,253 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.1 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.1	77.5	13.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.4	75.7	13.5
– Net Position:	-27,673	22,028	5,645
– Gross Longs:	96,356	924,975	166,387
– Gross Shorts:	124,029	902,947	160,742
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.6	18.5	57.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	11.9	18.2

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week was a net position of -318,655 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,328 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -337,983 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.8 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	84.1	11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.1	61.8	8.9
– Net Position:	-318,655	285,953	32,702
– Gross Longs:	53,639	1,077,401	147,290
– Gross Shorts:	372,294	791,448	114,588
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.2	54.9	51.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.4	-2.1	10.8

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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