The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.06.27

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.0518
• Prev Close: 1.0551
• % chg. over the last day: +0.31%

German Business Climate Index data showed a decline over the past month. The ifo Business Climate Index fell to 92.3 in June from 93.0 in May. The most significant decline was in the manufacturing sector. But the business climate -improved in the services sector. This was due to a considerable decrease in skepticism from service providers. The business climate also continues to improve in the construction sector. Many European countries will release inflation data this week, and then the overall figure for the Eurozone will be published on Friday. Analysts believe that inflation will continue to accelerate.

• Support levels: 1.0408, 1.0379
• Resistance levels: 1.0555, 1.0611, 1.0680, 1.0723

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price forms a wide corridor, and the MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0555 or from the upper border of the flat, but only after the additional confirmation. A price move above 1.0611 will change the priority. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0408 or from the lower border of the flat, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.0611 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2249
• Prev Close: 1.2275
• % chg. over the last day: +0.21%

A three-day forum with the main theme “Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world” will start on Monday in Sintra, Portugal. The forum will end with speeches by the heads of the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England on Wednesday, so investors should keep a close eye on this event.

• Support levels: .2238, 1.2093, 1.1974
• Resistance levels: 1.2422, 1.2470, 1.2523, 1.2629

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The situation is very similar to the euro. The price forms a wide corridor, while the MACD indicator shows no activity. Under such market conditions, sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2422 or from the upper border of the flat, but only after the additional confirmation. Buy trades are best to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2238 or from the lower border of the flat, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2422 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 134.92
• Prev Close: 135.15
• % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

The Japanese yen has strengthened these days slightly, but it should be noted that this strengthening was due to a decrease in the dollar index. There is no fundamental reason for the yen to strengthen at the moment, as the Bank of Japan is still keeping its soft monetary policy, while the US Federal Reserve, as well as the central banks of England and Canada, are tightening policy. Such divergence has- caused the Japanese yen to make new price lows against major currencies.

• Support levels: 134.10, 133.35, 131.67, 131.00, 130.12, 129.48, 128.76
• Resistance levels: 135.23, 135.77, 136.66

The medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading near the moving average lines and forming a wide price balance. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 134.10 or 133.35, but with confirmation. A resistance level of 135.23 is good for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below 133.35, the downtrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2995
• Prev Close: 1.2892
• % chg. over the last day: -0.80%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it depends on the US Dollar Index and oil prices. The dollar index declined on Friday, while oil prices jumped during the last two trading sessions. As a result, the Canadian dollar has strengthened. It should be noted that the Bank of Canada is on its way to raising interest rates and the latest inflation data from Canada showed that inflation has not stopped rising. Therefore, on expectations of an aggressive rate hike at the next meeting, the Canadian dollar may continue its upward momentum in the near term.

• Support levels: 1.2815, 1.2709, 1.2618, 1.2578, 1.2510
• Resistance levels: 1.2893, 1.2956, 1.3068

In terms of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. But the MACD indicator became negative, and the price is trading below the moving averages. Buyers are losing the initiative. A price move below 1.2815 will change the priority. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals in the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2815. For sell deals, it is better to consider the resistance level of 1.2956, but it is also better with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through and consolidates below the 1.2815 support level, the downtrend will likely resume.