Copper Speculator bets fall to 2-year low as China lockdowns dent demand

May 7, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday May 3rd 2022 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Copper futures bets. The speculative net position in the Copper futures has fallen for two consecutive weeks and by a total of -19,408 contracts over that time-frame. This weakness has dropped the current standing for Copper net positions into a bearish position for a second straight week. Last week was the first time Copper has been in a bearish position since June 2nd of 2020, a span of ninety-nine weeks. This week’s further decline in speculator bets brings the current net standing (-15,623 contracts) to the lowest level in two years, dating back to May 5th of 2020.

Weighing heavily on the Copper sentiment is the shut downs in China due to Covid-19 outbreaks, particularly in Shanghai and Beijing. China is among the largest producers of Copper in the world and is the largest consumer of Copper in the world with the red metal being used in numerous manufacturing processes, industries and electronics being produced in the country. Any prolonged slowdown in China economic activity will have an outsized effect on the current demand for Copper.

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The Copper price has pulled back recently with declines in each of the last four weeks that has taken approximately 10 percent off the futures price. Copper has been on a torrid bullish run that started in March 2020 when the pandemic burst open globally. Since the lows in March of 2020, Copper’s price rose by over 100 percent and now currently trades around the $4.25 per pound futures level.

The only metals market we cover with higher speculator bets this week was Platinum (+816 contracts) while the markets with lower spec bets were Silver (-7,338 contracts), Gold (-18,856 contracts), Copper (-11,838 contracts) and Palladium (-245 contracts).

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme OI Strength = Current Open Interest level compared to last 3 years range Spec Strength = Current Net Speculator level compared to last 3 years range Strength Move = Six week change of Spec Strength

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

May-03-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,751,564	2	321,701	6	-366,213	94	44,512	78
Gold	560,441	31	199,168	42	-231,852	55	32,684	57
Silver	137,692	5	28,068	50	-39,317	60	11,249	8
Copper	185,255	16	-15,623	31	10,080	66	5,543	57
Palladium	7,638	6	-2,752	6	2,455	90	297	61
Platinum	66,545	33	-1,541	1	-3,667	100	5,208	35
Natural Gas	1,138,319	12	-117,706	43	72,861	54	44,845	92
Brent	168,128	14	-27,318	65	26,014	37	1,304	27
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	700,856	22	190,402	77	-165,353	27	-25,049	29
Corn	1,513,880	23	501,865	94	-451,210	8	-50,655	14
Coffee	206,337	1	40,697	77	-43,007	28	2,310	5
Sugar	818,627	1	201,592	78	-236,394	23	34,802	51
Wheat	319,233	0	20,012	60	-14,225	30	-5,787	82

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 199,168 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -18,856 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 218,024 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.4	23.3	9.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	64.7	3.3
– Net Position:	199,168	-231,852	32,684
– Gross Longs:	293,439	130,795	51,270
– Gross Shorts:	94,271	362,647	18,586
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.4 to 1	2.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.1	55.4	57.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-18.3	17.9	-2.5

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 28,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,338 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,406 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.4 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	36.4	17.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.8	65.0	9.2
– Net Position:	28,068	-39,317	11,249
– Gross Longs:	56,764	50,184	23,860
– Gross Shorts:	28,696	89,501	12,611
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.3	60.3	8.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-19.8	24.8	-31.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -15,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -11,838 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,785 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.3 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	35.4	46.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	43.8	41.2	6.7
– Net Position:	-15,623	10,080	5,543
– Gross Longs:	65,590	86,458	18,009
– Gross Shorts:	81,213	76,378	12,466
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.1	66.4	57.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.6	30.7	-13.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,541 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 816 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,357 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	44.4	38.8	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	46.7	44.3	5.6
– Net Position:	-1,541	-3,667	5,208
– Gross Longs:	29,516	25,830	8,956
– Gross Shorts:	31,057	29,497	3,748
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	1.2	100.0	34.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-30.5	32.3	-28.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.1 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.7	59.8	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.8	27.7	13.0
– Net Position:	-2,752	2,455	297
– Gross Longs:	973	4,567	1,290
– Gross Shorts:	3,725	2,112	993
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.8	90.5	61.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.8	12.7	-38.9

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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