COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

April 23, 2022

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has fallen for two out of the past three weeks and in four out of the past six weeks. Previously, Gold speculator positions had added bullish bets for five consecutive weeks from February 8th through March 8th and brought the speculator bullish standing to the highest level in sixty-one weeks at +274,388 contracts.

The recent reduction in speculator bets and the slight cool off in the Gold price do not necessarily mean that sentiment for the shiny metal is turning. In fact, the Gold position may have greater heights in store as open interest levels have not recently touched any significant peak high (typically a surge of opinions and counter-opinions that can stop a trend especially at key levels) and the speculator strength level has not reached (or gotten close to) a bullish-extreme level (both of these levels can be signs of a top and exhaustion in trends). The net position for Gold, even after the recent weakness, remains above the 2022 weekly average of +230,004 contracts (the weekly average of all of 2021 was +204,623 contracts). So despite a rising interest rate environment (which may hurt or may help Gold), the combination of super-hot inflationary pressures, a war-time crisis and strong sentiment could help make Gold primed to stay on its bullish path.

Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (443 contracts) and Platinum (1,122 contracts).


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The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-14,530 contracts), Copper (-4,510 contracts) and Palladium (-149 contracts).


Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Apr-19-2022 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
WTI Crude 1,740,300 0 307,697 1 -351,252 100 43,555 76
Gold 575,202 40 239,757 60 -275,525 37 35,768 66
Silver 170,577 35 46,429 69 -63,288 37 16,859 41
Copper 203,896 29 18,840 56 -28,307 40 9,467 80
Palladium 6,435 0 -2,182 9 1,560 85 622 80
Platinum 61,603 24 7,537 13 -13,812 89 6,275 50
Natural Gas 1,144,047 14 -130,006 40 82,113 57 47,893 100
Brent 191,883 33 -40,102 44 37,663 56 2,439 42
Heating Oil 349,618 31 6,455 52 -32,434 37 25,979 88
Soybeans 762,855 36 200,098 80 -174,873 25 -25,225 28
Corn 1,625,198 42 500,612 94 -456,269 7 -44,343 18
Coffee 209,410 0 41,803 79 -45,447 24 3,644 15
Sugar 909,622 21 239,515 86 -295,470 12 55,955 77
Wheat 337,038 1 23,245 67 -20,425 21 -2,820 98

 


Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 239,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 57.5 22.5 9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 15.8 70.4 3.3
– Net Position: 239,757 -275,525 35,768
– Gross Longs: 330,745 129,157 55,032
– Gross Shorts: 90,988 404,682 19,264
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.6 to 1 0.3 to 1 2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 60.4 37.0 65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -12.0 10.6 9.1

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.5 32.1 16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 13.3 69.2 6.8
– Net Position: 46,429 -63,288 16,859
– Gross Longs: 69,088 54,719 28,471
– Gross Shorts: 22,659 118,007 11,612
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.0 to 1 0.5 to 1 2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.6 36.8 41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.9 6.2 -2.6

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 40.8 39.4 10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.6 53.3 5.4
– Net Position: 18,840 -28,307 9,467
– Gross Longs: 83,261 80,280 20,538
– Gross Shorts: 64,421 108,587 11,071
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.3 to 1 0.7 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 55.9 40.0 80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.3 8.1 7.0

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 45.9 35.1 15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 33.7 57.5 4.8
– Net Position: 7,537 -13,812 6,275
– Gross Longs: 28,293 21,617 9,250
– Gross Shorts: 20,756 35,429 2,975
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.4 to 1 0.6 to 1 3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 12.5 89.3 49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -26.6 26.6 -3.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 22.9 55.5 21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 56.8 31.3 11.3
– Net Position: -2,182 1,560 622
– Gross Longs: 1,475 3,573 1,349
– Gross Shorts: 3,657 2,013 727
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.8 to 1 1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 9.1 85.4 79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -10.9 12.1 -12.3

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.