COT Metals Speculators reduce their Gold bullish bets but positions remain strong

April 23, 2022

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday April 19th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting the COT metals data is the recent decline in the Gold futures bets. The speculative net position in the Gold futures has fallen for two out of the past three weeks and in four out of the past six weeks. Previously, Gold speculator positions had added bullish bets for five consecutive weeks from February 8th through March 8th and brought the speculator bullish standing to the highest level in sixty-one weeks at +274,388 contracts.

The recent reduction in speculator bets and the slight cool off in the Gold price do not necessarily mean that sentiment for the shiny metal is turning. In fact, the Gold position may have greater heights in store as open interest levels have not recently touched any significant peak high (typically a surge of opinions and counter-opinions that can stop a trend especially at key levels) and the speculator strength level has not reached (or gotten close to) a bullish-extreme level (both of these levels can be signs of a top and exhaustion in trends). The net position for Gold, even after the recent weakness, remains above the 2022 weekly average of +230,004 contracts (the weekly average of all of 2021 was +204,623 contracts). So despite a rising interest rate environment (which may hurt or may help Gold), the combination of super-hot inflationary pressures, a war-time crisis and strong sentiment could help make Gold primed to stay on its bullish path.

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Overall, the markets with higher speculator bets this week were Silver (443 contracts) and Platinum (1,122 contracts).

The markets with declining speculator bets this week were Gold (-14,530 contracts), Copper (-4,510 contracts) and Palladium (-149 contracts).

Speculator strength standings for each Commodity where strength index is current net position compared to past three years, above 80 is bullish extreme, below 20 is bearish extreme

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Apr-19-2022	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,740,300	0	307,697	1	-351,252	100	43,555	76
Gold	575,202	40	239,757	60	-275,525	37	35,768	66
Silver	170,577	35	46,429	69	-63,288	37	16,859	41
Copper	203,896	29	18,840	56	-28,307	40	9,467	80
Palladium	6,435	0	-2,182	9	1,560	85	622	80
Platinum	61,603	24	7,537	13	-13,812	89	6,275	50
Natural Gas	1,144,047	14	-130,006	40	82,113	57	47,893	100
Brent	191,883	33	-40,102	44	37,663	56	2,439	42
Heating Oil	349,618	31	6,455	52	-32,434	37	25,979	88
Soybeans	762,855	36	200,098	80	-174,873	25	-25,225	28
Corn	1,625,198	42	500,612	94	-456,269	7	-44,343	18
Coffee	209,410	0	41,803	79	-45,447	24	3,644	15
Sugar	909,622	21	239,515	86	-295,470	12	55,955	77
Wheat	337,038	1	23,245	67	-20,425	21	-2,820	98

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 239,757 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,530 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 254,287 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.7 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	57.5	22.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.8	70.4	3.3
– Net Position:	239,757	-275,525	35,768
– Gross Longs:	330,745	129,157	55,032
– Gross Shorts:	90,988	404,682	19,264
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.6 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.4	37.0	65.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-12.0	10.6	9.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 46,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 443 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,986 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.5	32.1	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	69.2	6.8
– Net Position:	46,429	-63,288	16,859
– Gross Longs:	69,088	54,719	28,471
– Gross Shorts:	22,659	118,007	11,612
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.0 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.6	36.8	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.9	6.2	-2.6

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 18,840 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,510 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.0 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.8	39.4	10.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.6	53.3	5.4
– Net Position:	18,840	-28,307	9,467
– Gross Longs:	83,261	80,280	20,538
– Gross Shorts:	64,421	108,587	11,071
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.9	40.0	80.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.3	8.1	7.0

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of 7,537 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,122 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,415 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	45.9	35.1	15.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.7	57.5	4.8
– Net Position:	7,537	-13,812	6,275
– Gross Longs:	28,293	21,617	9,250
– Gross Shorts:	20,756	35,429	2,975
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	12.5	89.3	49.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.6	26.6	-3.5

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week was a net position of -2,182 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -149 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,033 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.9 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.9	55.5	21.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.8	31.3	11.3
– Net Position:	-2,182	1,560	622
– Gross Longs:	1,475	3,573	1,349
– Gross Shorts:	3,657	2,013	727
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.8 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	9.1	85.4	79.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.9	12.1	-12.3

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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