By Orbex
The GBPJPY currency pair is moving within a cycle impulse. Right now, the third part of this impulse is under development.
The second half of the powerful impulse wave III is visible on the 1H timeframe. At the end of December, the correction wave ④ of the primary degree ended. This correction took the form of an intermediate triple zigzag.
Since then, there was a rise in the price in the primary wave ⑤, which takes the form of an intermediate 5-wave impulse (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).
The entire primary wave ⑤ can complete its pattern near 163.55. At that level, it will be at 61.8% of wave ③.
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Let’s consider an alternative scenario, where the primary wave ⑤ is not an impulse, but an ending diagonal consisting of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5).
There is a high probability that the price will rise in the sub-wave (5) to the price level of 158.32, which marked the primary impulse ③ (this is not visible on the current chart).
After the completion of cycle impulse III, prices could drop in the development of a cycle correction IV. It is possible that wave IV will be at 38.2% of impulse III.
The correction could complete its pattern near 147.32.
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