The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.12.02

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1335
• Prev Close: 1.1318
• % chg. over the last day: -0.15%

German retail sales fell by 0.3% in October while a 1% increase was expected. The ECB balance continues to rise despite growing inflation. Total assets increased by another €14.7 billion last week to a new level of €8,457 billion. The ECB balance now equals 81.2% of Eurozone GDP, against 37.4% of the Fed, 42% of the Bank of England, and 134.6% of the Bank of Japan.

• Support levels: 1.1263, 1.1230, 1.1168
• Resistance levels: 1.1371, 1.1436, 1.1535, 1.1613, 1.1667, 1.1717

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is still bearish. The price is currently trading in a narrow corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the priority change level of 1.1371. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame, given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1371 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US Treasury Secretary Yellen Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3293
• Prev Close: 1.3272
• % chg. over the last day: -0.16%

Home prices in the UK continue to grow, hitting a new record again as demand remains strong. According to Nationwide, the average UK home price increased by 0.9% last month after rising 0.7% in October. Home prices have risen nearly 15% since March 2020.

• Support levels: 1.3232
• Resistance levels: 1.3307, 1.3360, 1.3434, 1.3507, 1.3575, 1.3685, 1.3748

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator has become negative but is still signaling divergence on several time frames. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average. Buy trades should be considered on the support levels of higher time frames, given the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3385 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.13
• Prev Close: 112.76
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

Japan’s Ministry of Transportation is asking international airlines to stop booking all incoming flights to the country until 2022 because of the Omicron strain. The Japanese Yen is at seven-week highs as investors shift their assets into safe-haven currencies.

• Support levels: 112.87, 112.30
• Resistance levels: 113.79, 114.48, 115.15, 115.50

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. At the moment the price is trading in the corridor with the 112.87-113.79 range. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels around the moving average or from the upper border of the corridor. Buy positions should be considered from the false breakdown zone, which was formed below when the price tried to move down.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 114.52, the uptrend will likely resume.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2779
• Prev Close: 1.2820
• % chg. over the last day: +0.32%

From a fundamental point of view, the dollar index is now inclined to rise as the Fed has started cutting the QE program and may accelerate the process at the next meeting. Analysts are confused about how the new Omicron coronavirus strain will affect oil supply and demand and what OPEC+ will do after many countries release their strategic reserves to the market.

• Support levels: 1.2729, 1.2646, 1.2598, 1.2571, 1.2483, 1.2416, 1.2388
• Resistance levels: 1.2828

From a technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency is bullish. The price is trading flat in the corridor with a range of 1.2729-1.2828. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the lower border of the flat corridor. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2646 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

• – OPEC+ Meeting at 12:00 (GMT+2).