04 Dec
soft commodities

COT Speculators sharply decrease bullish bets in Corn, Sugar, Wheat & Soybeans

December 4, 2021

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 30th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Highlighting this week’s COT soft commodities data was the strong decrease for many of the soft commodities speculator positions. This week saw speculators cut back on bets for Sugar (-34,631 contracts), Cocoa (-23,422 contracts), Wheat (-23,195 contracts), Corn (-22,177 contracts) and Soybean Meal (-21,150 contracts).

Most of the soft commodities have been seeing strong bullish sentiment on the part of the speculators and this week’s drop marked their largest declines in some time. Corn fell by largest amount in the past twelve weeks while Sugar saw the biggest shortfall of the past six weeks. Wheat speculator bets fell this week by most in the past one-hundred and forty-four weeks, dating back to March of 2019.

The only two soft commodities that saw higher speculator positions this week were live cattle and lean hogs.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-30-2021OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude2,033,28614387,23435-432,8855345,65179
Gold531,86833225,86060-258,6033932,74357
Silver138,003538,43461-52,0094813,57519
Copper184,214159,19149-15,763496,57263
Palladium9,62114-2,97323,27798-30427
Platinum62,385268,94815-14,696885,74842
Natural Gas1,269,87936-132,6783993,5606039,11878
Brent217,78153-15,4949312,21283,28254
Heating Oil298,300011,22559-26,8344315,60952
Soybeans671,4331555,31744-16,98062-38,3378
Corn1,405,1055394,91280-341,09423-53,81812
Coffee266,0013366,02597-69,14463,11910
Sugar882,19915214,99581-242,9272227,93242
Wheat371,5751918,29463-10,43031-7,86464

 

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CORN Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 394,912 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -22,177 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 417,089 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.846.18.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.770.412.6
– Net Position:394,912-341,094-53,818
– Gross Longs:474,354647,620123,204
– Gross Shorts:79,442988,714177,022
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.523.312.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.1-17.52.9

 

SUGAR Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 214,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -34,631 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 249,626 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.145.69.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.773.16.0
– Net Position:214,995-242,92727,932
– Gross Longs:274,020402,37281,292
– Gross Shorts:59,025645,29953,360
– Long to Short Ratio:4.6 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):80.822.142.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.70.1-5.0

 

COFFEE Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,025 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 67,904 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.845.23.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.071.22.6
– Net Position:66,025-69,1443,119
– Gross Longs:79,225120,2309,983
– Gross Shorts:13,200189,3746,864
– Long to Short Ratio:6.0 to 10.6 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):96.65.69.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.13.1-7.6

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 55,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,897 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 66,214 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.1 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.358.56.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.161.012.5
– Net Position:55,317-16,980-38,337
– Gross Longs:129,653392,77845,663
– Gross Shorts:74,336409,75884,000
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 11.0 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.161.88.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-1.7-7.3

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 61,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -21,150 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 82,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.348.712.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.970.06.2
– Net Position:61,121-84,38623,265
– Gross Longs:88,336192,66547,820
– Gross Shorts:27,215277,05124,555
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):64.634.163.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.4-29.40.8

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 74,654 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,193 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 65,461 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.138.09.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.057.913.1
– Net Position:74,654-61,828-12,826
– Gross Longs:121,310117,80927,865
– Gross Shorts:46,656179,63740,691
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.157.055.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-18.2-10.2

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 59,949 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,756 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 55,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 73.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:42.932.86.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.750.914.8
– Net Position:59,949-41,359-18,590
– Gross Longs:98,14975,04815,217
– Gross Shorts:38,200116,40733,807
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.6 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):73.139.90.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.58.1-10.6

 

COTTON Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 96,995 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -10,116 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 107,111 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:45.436.66.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:5.879.43.3
– Net Position:96,995-104,8837,888
– Gross Longs:111,08289,51315,879
– Gross Shorts:14,087194,3967,991
– Long to Short Ratio:7.9 to 10.5 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.516.762.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.77.6-34.1

 

COCOA Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -7,497 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,422 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.5 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.055.04.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.152.14.5
– Net Position:-7,4977,141356
– Gross Longs:62,102136,42811,601
– Gross Shorts:69,599129,28711,245
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.1 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):16.585.312.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-27.730.6-44.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 18,294 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,195 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,489 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.0 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.235.58.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.338.310.6
– Net Position:18,294-10,430-7,864
– Gross Longs:115,857132,06131,535
– Gross Shorts:97,563142,49139,399
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.630.764.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:22.9-27.98.4

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.


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