The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.04

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1579
• Prev Close: 1.1612
• % chg. over the last day: +0.28%

The ECB President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that the ECB wouldn’t have a reason to raise interest rates next year as the inflation outlook in the medium term remained restrained. Given the ECB’s conservatism, Europe will remain soft on monetary policy for the longest time. Europe’s unemployment rate slightly decreased from 7.5% to 7.4%.

• Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1548, 1.1502, 1.1453
• Resistance levels: 1.1618, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD is bearish on the hour time frame. But the price managed to return above the breakdown level, which indicates a possible false break move. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. It is best to look for buy trades from the support levels of lower time frames given the buyers’ initiative, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

• – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
• – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3612
• Prev Close: 1.3684
• % chg. over the last day: +0.53%

The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting today. Analysts don’t have a single opinion. Most experts think that the Bank of England will not immediately raise the interest rates. Still, the stimulus program may be reduced from November, especially considering that the Fed has officially started to reduce the QE.

• Support levels: 1.3617, 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360
• Resistance levels: 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD has changed to bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and the price has formed a wide price corridor. Buy trades should be considered only from the support levels of the higher time frame. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3780 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

• – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Monetary Policy Report (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 113.96
• Prev Close: 113.96
• % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

After the announcement of the “tapering” from the Fed, fundamentally, the dollar index will be inclined to rise, which will lead to the growth of USDJPY quotes. The Japanese yen is highly correlated with the dollar index, and Japan’s monetary policy will remain soft for at least a few more months.

• Support levels: 113.42, 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
• Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price is trading in a wide price corridor. The MACD indicator has become positive, which indicates buyers’ pressure. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zones on the lower time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher time frame, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend will likely be broken.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2404
• Prev Close: 1.2387
• % chg. over the last day: -0.14%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. Yesterday, The dollar index sharply fell on the news about reducing the QE program but recovered its position by the end of the trading session. At the same time, oil prices continued to fall ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which is scheduled today. As a result, USD/CAD quotes were very volatile.

• Support levels: 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
• Resistance levels: 1.2428, 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. Yesterday, the price attempted to break through the priority change level, but the sellers sharply returned the price back to the wide corridor, forming a false breakout zone. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the false breakout area. Buy trades should be considered from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2428 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

• – OPEC+ Meeting (All Day).