COT Currency Charts: Speculators push US Dollar Index bullish bets to 104-week high

October 15, 2021

By InvestMacro | COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 12th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is the speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets which have risen to the highest level in 104 weeks. Speculator wagers in favor of the Dollar Index have now increased for eight straight weeks and have climbed higher for sixteen out of the past seventeen weeks. This pushes the current position (35,062 contracts) to the most bullish standing dating back to October 15th of 2019 when net positions totaled 37,436 contracts. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) also shows that spec sentiment has now moved into an extreme bullish position (86 percent score) for a second week.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Oct-12-2021 OI OI-Index Spec-Net Spec-Index Com-Net COM-Index Smalls-Net Smalls-Index
USD Index 62,836 95 35,062 86 -42,692 4 7,630 100
EUR 695,329 82 -18,398 29 -8,953 73 27,351 23
GBP 172,829 21 -11,979 65 20,191 42 -8,212 39
JPY 243,617 100 -76,634 21 95,092 84 -18,458 12
CHF 57,341 38 -12,972 47 29,963 65 -16,991 13
CAD 127,827 15 -27,860 32 11,728 59 16,132 71
AUD 177,932 66 -87,608 2 102,000 95 -14,392 20
NZD 37,340 19 8,748 86 -8,151 18 -597 45
MXN 171,754 34 -39,634 0 37,759 100 1,875 51
RUB 54,771 61 19,308 59 -21,718 36 2,410 100
BRL 27,338 26 -373 68 -107 33 480 73
Bitcoin 10,918 69 -1,426 64 555 0 871 18

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 35,062 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 3,036 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 32,026 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.


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US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 78.6 3.4 14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 22.8 71.3 2.4
– Net Position: 35,062 -42,692 7,630
– Gross Longs: 49,394 2,131 9,108
– Gross Shorts: 14,332 44,823 1,478
– Long to Short Ratio: 3.4 to 1 0.0 to 1 6.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 86.3 3.7 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 24.8 -27.4 23.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,398 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 3,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,334 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.3 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 29.1 57.0 12.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.8 58.3 8.8
– Net Position: -18,398 -8,953 27,351
– Gross Longs: 202,512 396,224 88,733
– Gross Shorts: 220,910 405,177 61,382
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.9 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 29.4 73.2 23.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 12.2 -22.7

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -11,979 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,039 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,018 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 38.6 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 27.1 57.0 14.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 34.0 45.3 19.1
– Net Position: -11,979 20,191 -8,212
– Gross Longs: 46,794 98,512 24,778
– Gross Shorts: 58,773 78,321 32,990
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 1.3 to 1 0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 65.4 41.6 38.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 2.1 3.4 -18.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -76,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -12,940 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -63,694 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.4 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 14.7 76.2 8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 46.2 37.1 16.1
– Net Position: -76,634 95,092 -18,458
– Gross Longs: 35,810 185,560 20,735
– Gross Shorts: 112,444 90,468 39,193
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.3 to 1 2.1 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 20.7 84.3 12.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.4 7.9 -4.6

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,972 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,679 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.2 79.0 14.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 28.8 26.8 44.3
– Net Position: -12,972 29,963 -16,991
– Gross Longs: 3,560 45,327 8,435
– Gross Shorts: 16,532 15,364 25,426
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.2 to 1 3.0 to 1 0.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 47.3 64.6 13.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -29.6 30.7 -30.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -27,860 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -994 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,866 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 17.5 52.3 29.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 39.3 43.1 16.5
– Net Position: -27,860 11,728 16,132
– Gross Longs: 22,382 66,803 37,224
– Gross Shorts: 50,242 55,075 21,092
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.4 to 1 1.2 to 1 1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 31.8 59.0 71.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish Bullish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -20.8 9.9 13.9

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -87,608 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 2,371 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 6.3 82.2 9.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 55.5 24.8 17.3
– Net Position: -87,608 102,000 -14,392
– Gross Longs: 11,193 146,176 16,345
– Gross Shorts: 98,801 44,176 30,737
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.1 to 1 3.3 to 1 0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 2.2 95.0 20.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -25.9 15.2 16.7

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 8,748 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 692 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,056 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.0 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 54.8 33.7 9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 31.4 55.5 11.4
– Net Position: 8,748 -8,151 -597
– Gross Longs: 20,467 12,586 3,646
– Gross Shorts: 11,719 20,737 4,243
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.7 to 1 0.6 to 1 0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 85.9 17.8 45.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: 18.3 -16.2 -4.2

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,634 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,055 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -35,579 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 51.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 43.2 52.6 3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 66.2 30.6 2.2
– Net Position: -39,634 37,759 1,875
– Gross Longs: 74,129 90,283 5,577
– Gross Shorts: 113,763 52,524 3,702
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.7 to 1 1.7 to 1 1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 0.0 100.0 51.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bearish-Extreme Bullish-Extreme Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -8.9 9.7 -8.5

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -373 contracts in the market data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,917 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 52.9 35.1 11.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 54.2 35.5 9.8
– Net Position: -373 -107 480
– Gross Longs: 14,449 9,600 3,154
– Gross Shorts: 14,822 9,707 2,674
– Long to Short Ratio: 1.0 to 1 1.0 to 1 1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 68.1 33.3 72.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -16.9 18.7 -16.7

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 19,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,409 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 55.1 39.0 5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 19.9 78.7 1.4
– Net Position: 19,308 -21,718 2,410
– Gross Longs: 30,193 21,388 3,190
– Gross Shorts: 10,885 43,106 780
– Long to Short Ratio: 2.8 to 1 0.5 to 1 4.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 59.1 35.8 100.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bearish Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -5.1 3.1 21.7

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,426 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 92 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,518 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 63.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics SPECULATORS COMMERCIALS SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs: 62.7 6.3 16.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts: 75.7 1.2 8.1
– Net Position: -1,426 555 871
– Gross Longs: 6,844 689 1,751
– Gross Shorts: 8,270 134 880
– Long to Short Ratio: 0.8 to 1 5.1 to 1 2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct): 63.8 92.3 18.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range): Bullish Bullish-Extreme Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index: -9.4 62.4 -8.5

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).