The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.08.06

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1836
• Prev Close: 1.1831
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04%

The EUR/USD currency pair is slowly correcting to the support level. In recent weeks, the ECB has started to consider the issue towards the cutting of stimulus measures in Europe as high vaccination rates help businesses to recover. But some government groups call on not to rush to cut the aid because of the global spread of the Delta strain. In France, there is a sharp increase in the number of new coronavirus strain cases.

• Support levels: 1.1817, 1.1784, 1.1754, 1.1609
• Resistance levels: 1.1854, 1.1894, 1.1934, 1.1969

From a technical point of view, the general trend of the EUR/USD currency pair remains bullish. The price fell below the moving average; the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it’s better to consider intraday trading. Buy positions should be considered from the nearest support levels. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels, but only throughout the day and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1784 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend is likely to be broken.

• – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3886
• Prev Close: 1.3928
• % chg. over the last day: +0.30%

Unlike the euro, the British pound gained a more confident position. The Bank of England expectedly kept interest rates unchanged but indicated that some moderate tightening of monetary policy is likely to be needed to keep inflation under control in the near term. The inflation forecast is 4% by the end of the year, but the period of high inflation will be temporary. The UK’s recovery from the pandemic is accelerating at a rapid pace – most of the economy is open and businesses are reporting strong sales.

• Support levels: 1.3886, 1.3825, 1.3772, 1.3714, 1.3676 ,1.3641, 1.3614, 1.3525
• Resistance levels: 1.3935, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101

On the hour timeframe, the trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bullish. The MACD indicator has become inactive; the price is still inside of a corridor. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades after the breakthrough of the 1.3935 resistance level. There are no optimal points for sell positions right now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3714 support level and consolidates below, the bearish scenario is likely to resume.

• – UK BoE MPC Member Broadbent’s Speech at 14:15 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.48
• Prev Close: 109.78
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

The Japanese yen is losing its positions. Japan’s economy slightly recovered in the second quarter after a sharp decline at the beginning of the year, but economists believe that Japan will be in recession again in the third quarter and the economy will fail to keep pace with other developed countries, as the strengthening of restrictions, as well as the Olympics without spectators, will cause significant financial damage to businesses and production.

• Support levels: 109.43,109.19, 108.65
• Resistance levels: 109.88, 110.22, 110.41, 110.56

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. But the price has reached the priority change level. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better for traders to look for sell positions from the priority change level. Buy trades should be considered only after the price pulls back to the buyers’ initiative zone or to the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 109.88, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2534
• Prev Close: 1.2500
• % chg. over the last day: -0.27%

The Canadian dollar is highly dependent on the dollar index and the oil price dynamics. The dollar index did not change much yesterday, while oil price slightly increased, which caused the strengthening of the Canadian dollar and the decline of the USD/CAD currency pair. Analysts expect fuel prices to rise in the nearest future, which will play in favor of a stronger Canadian dollar. Today, Canada will report on the state of the labor market.

• Support levels: 1.2471, 1.2425, 1.2370, 1.2312
• Resistance levels: 1.2531, 1.2602, 1.2671, 1.2787, 1,2951

Considering technical analysis, the USD/CAD trend is bearish. The MACD indicator is inactive. Under such market conditions, traders should look for sell positions from the resistance levels after sellers show initiative. Only intraday time frames should be considered for opening buy positions.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2671 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

• – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).