The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.07.01

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1896
• Prev Close: 1.1857
• % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

Excess liquidity in the European financial system is having a negative impact on the euro. The ECB is now printing more money than the US Fed. The European Consumer Price Index has remained at the same level. Manufacturing activity macrostatistics will be released today.

• Support levels: 1.1847, 1.1809
• Resistance levels: 1.1911, 1.1973, 1.2002, 1.2050, 1.2109, 1.2144, 1.2174, 1.2212

The trend is still bearish, with sellers’ pressure gaining strength again. The price reached the support level of 1.1847, but buyers did not react to this level. The MACD indicator has returned to the negative zone. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for sell trades from resistance levels. Traders can look for long positions on intraday timeframes from the H1 support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2144 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

• – ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:00 (GMT+3);
• – France Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
• – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US ISM Manufacturing PMI at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3830
• Prev Close: 1.3832
• % chg. over the last day: +0.01%

The strengthening of the dollar index has a negative impact on the British pound rate. The fundamental picture in the UK remains unchanged. Coronavirus restrictions in the United Kingdom are still holding back business activity in various sectors of the economy. The speech of the head of the Bank of England is expected today.

• Support levels: 1.3801, 1.3767
• Resistance levels: 1.3931, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

The GBP/USD trend is bearish on the H1 timeframe. The price is trading below the moving average, while the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but it shows signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels on the intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.4101 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

• – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).
• – UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 110.48
• Prev Close: 111.10
• % chg. over the last day: +0.56%

The USD/JPY currency pair increased by 0.56% yesterday, mainly due to a stronger dollar index, as the Large Manufacturers Index in Japan improved in the second quarter to a two-and-a-half-year high. Non-manufacturing sentiment also improved to plus 1 from minus 1 in the previous survey, reaching the highest index value since March 2020. Service sector sentiment also turned positive for the first time in five quarters, indicating a recovery in the country.

• Support levels: 110.82, 110.47, 110.23, 109.83, 109.62, 109.31
• Resistance levels: 111.09, 111.48

The trend remains bullish. The price is trading above the moving average. The MACD indicator is in the overbought zone, but there is no sign of divergence. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from support levels, but after a slight downward correction. The price has reached resistance levels now, so sell positions can be considered too, but only on intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.83, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

• – Japan Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3).
• – Japan Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index (q/q) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2396
• Prev Close: 1.2396
• % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

The USD/CAD currency pair remained unchanged at the end of the day. The USD/CAD exchange rate is highly dependent on two factors: the dollar index and the price of oil quotes, as the Canadian dollar is a commodity currency. Canada’s GDP contracted by 0.3% in monthly terms.

• Support levels: 1.2347, 1.2312, 1.2251, 1.2190, 1,2148 1.2121, 1.2096
• Resistance levels: 1.2404, 1.2478, 1.2519

Technically, the trend remains bullish. The price is trading above the moving average, and the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is best to trade on the lower timeframes. Buyers may look for buy trades from support levels. Traders can look for entry points on intraday timeframes for sell positions, but only with short targets because it is trading against the trend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2190 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.