The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.04.08

The EUR/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.1875
• Prev Close: 1.1867
• % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

The euro declined against the US dollar by the end of the day amid a narrowing yield spread on the credit market and the dollar’s stabilization. The spread between the German Bonds and the American T-Note dropped by 20 basis points, which stopped the pair’s growth, and a bearish engulfing candlestick formed on the daily chart.

• Support levels: 1.1836, 1.1704
• Resistance levels: 1.1915, 1.1990

The main scenario for EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.1915 and 1.1836. The MACD fell to zero, while the ADX declined to its lowest levels. The trend indicator did not show a significant reaction to the last wave of growth on the H4 timeframe. The price is still anchored above the moving averages, which leaves little chance of further gains in the short term.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below the level of 1.1836, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1704. A breakout of 1.1915 will indicate continued growth.

• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Jerome Powell’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.3819
• Prev Close: 1.3735
• % chg. over the last day: -0.61%

The sterling showed the most significant drop among the G10 currencies on Wednesday. Traders remain concerned that the summer travel season could be disrupted this year as well, and problems with the AstraZeneca drug are only exacerbating bearish pressures.

• Support levels: 1.3705, 1.3680
• Resistance levels: 1.3848, 1.3929

The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. The ADX shows a significant reaction to the decline, but at the same time, reacts to the pair’s rise, indicating a temporary halt in the fall. But as long as the MACD is below zero and the price is below the moving averages, selling will be relevant.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3800, the pound may move upward to 1.3848.

The USD/JPY currency pair

• Prev Open: 109.75
• Prev Close: 109.84
• % chg. over the last day: +0.08%

The dollar-yen pair has stopped the decline, showing a slight increase within the day. The S&P 500 index has renewed its highs again, and the Treasuries have stabilized, supporting the pair. However, it is too early to speak about the resumption of growth, as 2-year bonds decline gradually.

• Support levels: 109.59, 109.38
• Resistance levels: 110.32, 110.98

The main scenario is selling. The price is still fixed below the moving averages, and the MACD is below zero. The ADX reacts to southern impulses, which indicates the presence of significant bearish pressure. Another sign of continued decline is that the price has been unable to rise above SMA50 during consolidation.

The alternative scenario implies the price fixing above 110.32. In this case, the pair may resume growth to 109.98.

• – US Initial Jobless Claims at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – Jerome Powell’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

• Prev Open: 1.2564
• Prev Close: 1.2606
• % chg. over the last day: +0.33%

The pair ceased growing near March highs as the decline in oil prices stopped. WTI quotes have stabilized in the range of $60.00 – $58.00 per barrel. Because the market ignored the strong performance in the Canadian services sector, the likelihood of continued movement northward remains.

• Support levels: 1.2501, 1.2466
• Resistance levels: 1.2629, 1.2646

The main scenario is buying. Specifications remain bullish. The price is still fixed above the moving averages, and the MACD is in the positive area. The ADX is showing a moderate response to growth.

Alternative scenario: if the price consolidates below 1.2568, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2501.

• – Jerome Powell’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+3).