by JustForex
The euro fell slightly on Friday and continued to decline during the Asian session amid growing tensions in the vaccination program. Also, new quarantine measures in European countries cast doubt on the rapid recovery of the EU economy from the crisis. Economists estimate that the planned recovery could be delayed until September.
The main scenario for EUR/USD is trading sideways between 1.1882 and 1.1990. The price only pierced the first support level on low liquidity at the beginning of trading, which indicates the bears’ weakness. The ADX shows no significant southward trend. But the moving averages and the MACD indicate a low probability of the price-fixing below the support level. In general, the signal is neutral.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below the level of 1.1882, the pair may return to the decline to 1.1834. A breakdown of 1.1990 could send the pair towards 1.2113.
On Friday, the sterling tended to decline more against the dollar than against the euro. The disappointment of the currency market after the meeting of the Bank of England seems to continue. In addition, the commodity market is declining as well as bond yields and stock prices, making the US dollar rise.
The main scenario for GBP/USD is selling. The ADX is starting to show signs of rising bearish strength. The support level has been broken, and the price is firmly consolidating below. A combination of factors results in a bearish signal of medium strength.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3902, it may resume growth to 1.3997.
The dollar-yen pair continues to show signs of correction both from the technical side and from the fundamental one. The decline in stock markets continues, putting pressure on the pair. The decline in bond yields signals an increase in demand for defensive assets, including the Japanese yen.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 109.34 and 108.35. The ADX on the hourly timeframe shows growth on the pair’s decline, which indicates the presence of bears. The likelihood of a corrective decline is increasing. But as long as the pair is above the support level, the sideways movement scenario remains in effect.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08. A breakdown of 109.34 will resume growth.
The Canadian dollar has slowed down the corrective growth as the oil prices stopped falling. But the outlook for commodity markets remains negative in the medium term, as the threat of a third wave of the coronavirus pandemic has emerged.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2546 and 1.2466. Thursday’s northern impulse hardly continued on Friday. The ADX shows a fall in bullish strength. The MACD is above zero and the price is above the moving averages. In general, there is a weak northern signal limited by the first resistance level.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold below 1.2466, the pair may resume its southern movement. A breakout of 1.2546 may resume corrective gains.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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