by JustForex
The euro continues to decline gradually but at the same time does not show signs of increasing bearish pressure. The decrease in volatility is also based on the expectation of a two-day Fed meeting results announcement. At the end of the American session, we can expect the growth of fluctuations in the US dollar when the FOMC publishes new economic forecasts and Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference.
The main scenario for EUR/USD is trading in a sideways range between 1.1967 and 1.1834. The ADX has stopped responding to price movements. The MACD remains below zero, and the price is below the moving averages. There are signs of further gradual decline in the pair, but the first support level may limit it.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1967, the pair may return to growth to 1.2113. A breakdown of 1.1834 could trigger a steep dive.
The sterling showed a smaller intraday decline against the dollar, and the price returned above the first support level, making a false break. The pair continues to show bullish signs ahead of the Bank of England meeting as traders wait for signals to start curtailing the stimulus program.
The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3857 and 1.3997. The southern price movement on Tuesday triggered a strong reaction from the ADX. It indicates the presence of bearish strength in the pair, but some points call into question further decline. A false breakout of the support level and a long shadow below on the daily candle indicate a likely stop or reversal of the price to the north.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3997, it may resume growth to the year’s highs. The consolidation below 1.3857 will indicate the resumption of the fall.
The growth of risky assets stopped, the yield on government bonds remained at the same level. It caused the pair to stop growing, and the 109.34 level became a strong resistance. Today, in the American session, one can observe an increase in volatility, which will determine the further medium-term direction, continued growth or a southern correction.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 109.34 and 108.35. The ADX on the 1-hour timeframe has declined to its minimum values but still shows significant bullish pressure on the H4 and D1. It indicates the likelihood of an early resumption of growth in the pair, although calm trading can be expected until the end of the American session.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 108.35. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08. A breakdown of 109.34 will resume growth.
Oil prices continue to put pressure on the pair. The instrument managed to gain a foothold below the February lows, but there was no further rapid decline. It looks more like the pair has formed a new support level, and further downward movement may be difficult without additional drivers.
The main scenario is trading in a sideways range between 1.2500 and 1.2435. The ADX is starting to show signs of declining bearish pressure. A divergence has formed on the MACD, which portends a correction. In this light, a stop of the southern movement is possible. The beginning of the correction may take place if the pair rises above the SMA 100 moving average.
Alternative scenario: If the price consolidates below 1.2435, the pair may resume its decline to 1.2400. A breakdown of 1.2500 will indicate the beginning of a correction.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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