by JustForex
The European currency has dropped below 1.1952 for the first time since February 5, as the dollar is rapidly growing after the past week’s events. The fundamental background is putting significant pressure on the pair. The German-US 10-year bond yield spread fell to -184.8%, 200 basis points higher than in February.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. The ADX shows strong bearish pressure on higher timeframes H4 and D1. There is a slight decrease in pressure on H1, which may signal a slight pullback. This is also indicated by the MACD, showing a divergence. But the main direction will remain south as long as the price is below 1.1952.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above the level of 1.1952, the pair may return to growth up to 1.2113.
The sterling is showing a less rapid decline against the dollar than the euro. The expectations regarding the monetary policy of the Bank of England are approximately equal to those of the Fed. Investors are betting on the completion of the easing policy, while the option contracts for tightening are growing. This provides some support for the British currency.
The main scenario for GBP/USD is trading sideways between 1.3869 and 1.3775. The ADX declined after Monday’s sideways movement. The MACD dropped to zero. At the same time, the price is close to the moving averages. This indicates that the decline has stopped, but the medium-term direction remains south.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3869, the pair may resume its growth. A breakdown of 1.3775 could trigger a further decline.
Fundamental factors point to further growth of the pair in the medium term, but in the short term, there are factors that can provoke a temporary pullback. The yield on 10-year US bonds fell below 1.60%, while the stock market is below February values.
The main scenario is cautious buying. In the short term, the pair may pull back, as the ADX began to decline after hitting the short-term overbought area. The MACD shows divergence. These are initial signs of an impending southern pullback, but buying on a decline looks safe now.
An alternative scenario implies the price-fixing below 107.95. In this case, the pair may return to the decline to 107.08.
This currency pair continues to remain in a narrow sideways range. Despite the pullback in the oil market, the oil price remains above the February highs. This is supporting the Canadian currency. At the same time, the growth of the US dollar prevents the pair from falling. As a result, a weekly flat is observed.
The main scenario is trading in the sideways range between 1.2673 and 1.2592. The ADX stopped reacting to any price change. The MACD is near zero, and the price is between the moving averages. This indicates the continuation of trading in a narrow sideways range.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to gain a foothold above 1.2673, the pair may resume growth to 1.2745. A breakdown of 1.2592 will strengthen the southern movement.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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