by JustForex
On Monday, EUR/USD accelerated its growth and stopped near the support levels – the lows of December 21. In the long term, technical models still indicate growth; however, in the event of a breakdown of the important level of 1.2059, everything will reveal a deeper correction about the entire trend since May last year.
The main scenario for trading EURUSD is selling on growth. A rebound from the support level indicates a possible pullback that could push the price down to 1.2190 – 1.2240. This possibility is indicated by the ADX, which reacted very weakly to yesterday’s decline, which shows the bears’ trend weakness. However, while the rest of the indicators are rearranged to the south, selling looks safer.
Alternative scenario: if the price can consolidate above the level of 1.2240, the pair may return to the maximum values of 1.2349.
On Monday, sterling regained some of the positions lost on Friday and Monday’s Asian session, forming a long shadow below. This is a bad sign for bears. However, there are not enough drivers for bulls either. The British Gilts’ profitability continues to be significantly below the American Treasuries, which puts pressure on the pair.
The main scenario for GBP/USD is cautious selling on growth. Despite the significant rebound, the price remains fixed below the moving averages. But ADX, on the rebound, was able to rebuild in the north direction. But the potential for bullish pressure is still weak. MACD is near zero. These are all signs of the possibility of getting stuck in a sideways range. But as long as the price is below SMA 100 and SMA 50, sales are safer.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3561, the decline is likely to stop, and the pair will return to 1.3634 – 1.3670.
On Monday, the USD/JPY continued its upward movement, which has little trouble. The stock market has stabilized in the area of maximum values; the Treasury yield continues to rise. The dollar index is also bullish.
The main scenario is range trading. The pair managed to gain a foothold above key levels and is confidently holding above the moving averages. But the ADX shows weakening intraday upward pressure. A divergence has formed on the MACD. This indicates the likelihood of a temporary retreat of the bulls, and the pair may stop.
An alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing below 103.67. In this case, the pair may fall to 102.89. A breakdown of 104.76 will open the way to 105.68.
On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar surpassed itself. Despite the absence of a correction in the oil market, the pair rose above the levels of the beginning of the year, showing the greatest movement in favor of the US dollar among the major currency pairs. The driver of this movement was the Bank of Canada’s announcement on the continuation of monetary easing measures.
The main scenario is range trading. Despite the significant pullback from the highs, the pair remained fixed above the moving averages. But MACD is near zero. ADX is already starting to react to the southern movement, but bearish pressure is weak. On a mixed technical background, the pair could be stuck between 1.2715 and 1.2797.
Alternative scenario: if the price can consolidate below 1.2715, the pair may return to 1.2630. Price fixation above 1.2797 will open the way to 1.2875.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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