by JustForex
EUR/USD has dropped significantly after a series of economic releases in the US. During the Asian session, the southern movement continued. Although it is too early to talk about a reversal, technical indicators indicate the beginning of a deep correction. Fundamental factors also point to a rise in the dollar against the European currency. The yield spread on the credit market among 10-year bonds widened significantly in the last week in favor of US securities.
The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. The breakdown of the main support level at 1.2216 indicated the beginning of a deep correction. ADX is still weakly reacting to the movement, which indicates the likelihood of consolidation near current levels or a pullback. Convergence has formed on MACD, confirming the bearish trend.
Alternative scenario: if the price can consolidate above the level of 1.2283, the pair may return to the maximum values of 1.2349.
On Friday, sterling bulls made an unsuccessful attempt to buy. The pound rose to its maximum values; however, it fell back to the American session’s opening price, leaving a long shadow at the top. A breakout of a significant support level indicates the presence of bears in the British currency.
The main scenario in GBP/USD is selling on growth. The price firmly consolidated below the moving averages and the level of 1.3540, which was the key to further movement. ADX showed a strong reaction to the southern movement, which indicates the growth of the bearish trend. Convergence was formed in MACD.
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Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates above 1.3583, the decline is likely to be stopped, and the pair will return to the range.
On Friday, the USD/JPY slowed down a bit, although there are no visible obstacles to the continuation of the northern movement. The stock market continues to hit new highs, driven by rising US bond yields. Usually, during such periods, the USD/JPY is in demand.
The main scenario is to purchase. The pair managed to consolidate above key levels, but so far, it looks more and more like a return to the range of the first half of December. Specifications indicate solid growth. ADX shows a high potential for an upward movement, but little is left to the overbought area. Accordingly, the first resistance can limit the first wave of correction.
An alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing below 103.67. In this case, the pair may fall to 102.89.
At the end of Friday, the US dollar closed slightly higher against the Canadian currency. However, there is a long shadow at the top of the daily chart, which does not indicate the instrument’s precise northern movement. Rising prices of the commodity market continue to put pressure on quotes.
The main scenario is cautious buying on growth. Not all indicators point to accelerating growth. Price fixing above the moving averages and convergence in MACD indicates the presence of bulls in the instrument. But the ADX is weak. The first resistance can be overwhelming for the pair.
Alternative scenario: if the price manages to consolidate below 1.2697, the pair may return to 1.2630.
by JustForex
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
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