InvestMacro

Former Investment Officer of One of the World’s Largest Sovereign Wealth Funds Shares His Current Focus

Source: Streetwise Reports (1/25/23)

Streetwise Reports sat down with Øyvind Schanke, the chief investment officer of TD Veen and the former investment officer of one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds as he shares his current focus.

While some investment companies focus solely on the bottom line, some have a much brighter goal in mind. And while money is still important to TD Veen, it is not the mission. Instead, TD Veen is a family-centered investment company with one goal in mind: to invest only in that which benefits society. We at Streetwise Reports were intrigued by TD Veen’s premise, so we sat down with its chief investment officer Øyvind Schanke to learn more about TD Veen and the companies it invests in.

Øyvind Schanke joined the company in 2020 after years of investment experience. Before working with TD, Veen Schanke spent almost 16 years at the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth fund, one of the world’s largest sovereign wealth funds, the last years as the CIO for asset management based in London.

Main Investment Positions

The public companies TD Veen invests in are listed below.

Public Companies
Country	Company	Website	Sector
NO	Pexip	https://www.pexip.com/	Video technology / Video conferencing
NO	Statt Torsk	https://statt.no/en/	Cod Farming
NO	Nordic Halibut	https://www.nordichalibut.com/	Halibut farming
NO	Nycode	https://nykode.com/	Therapeutics Platform
US	Atai Life Science	https://atai.life/	Mental Health Biopharma
CA	Awakn	https://awaknlifesciences.com/	Life Sciences
NO	Klaveness Combination Carriers	https://www.combinationcarriers.com/	Carbon Efficient Shipping
NO	CO2 Capsol	https://www.co2capsol.com/home	Carbon Capture
US/AUS	Bionomics ADS	https://www.bionomics.com.au/	Biopharma
NO	Quantafuel	https://www.quantafuel.com/	Wast handling technology

You can download a full list of their investment positions. However, no matter the investment, TD Veen was founded under the premise that people needed to invest in social entrepreneurship, so the company keeps a boutique list of companies under its list, with a special focus on the health and life science sectors, especially mental health.

Why TD Invests in Mental Health

While Schanke spoke positively about emergency care within Norway’s public health system, he pointed out an incredible need to increase the quality of preventative care in his country.

He said, “there is no cure, just a bandaid,” especially regarding addiction and other mental health disorders.

Norway has an incredibly high suicide rate per capita, with 10.9 suicides per 100,000. In fact, according to The Borgen Project, “about half of all people in Norway experience a mental health disorder at some point in their life,” and this has only been exacerbated by Covid-19.

In fact, according to The Borgen Project, “about half of all people in Norway experience a mental health disorder at some point in their life.”

Not only are Norwegians experiencing higher rates of mental illness due to Covid-19, but the lack of light during the winter months can make things a lot worse by adding seasonal affective disorder on top of general issues.

Linda Geddes from The Atlantic gave an overview of this issue and spoke with those in Northern European countries to get their personal take on how the lack of light in winter months affects them here.

The main treatment for depression is currently therapy and antidepressants, which Norwegians take a lot of. However, while antidepressants can calm the symptoms of depression, they don’t go to the root of the problem. This is why the team at TD Veen saw an overarching need for more comprehensive mental health care within Norway and the world, so they put their money where their heart is and began investing in it — literally.

Chart Source: Dadaviz. Data Source: OECD.

TD Veen first built a relationship with Atai Life Sciences NV (ATAI:NASDAQ), a mental-health-focused bio-pharmaceutical company headquartered in Berlin, Germany. This began in 2018, as Øyvind Schanke had a call with the company and decided he needed to learn more about the medicinal use of psychedelics in treating mental health disorders. He then met with the company in Oslo, where he was introduced to

Awakn Life Sciences Corp. (AWKN:NEO; AWKNF:OTCQB), a biopharma company using controversial drugs to treat alcohol use disorder and other addictions. Currently, Awakn is using ketamin in their clinics, with five clinics in total, two of which are in Norway. They are also in the middle of trials for MDMA.

Psychedelics a Burgeoning Market

While the use of psychedelics is a controversial practice, it is gaining more and more traction. Research and Markets predicted that the global psychedelic drugs market would reach US$10.75 billion by 2027. And this is not for recreational use but rather for its ability to aid in treating mental illness. A study from the Centre for Psychedelic Research at Imperial College London found that psilocybin, the active compound in magic mushrooms, could be just as effective as anti-depressants in a clinical setting.

In 2022, Netflix released a docu-series on the waves psychedelics have been making in the bio-pharma world titled “How to Change Your Mind.”

The third episode of the series focuses heavily on the history of MDMA, its effects, and how it could be used to treat both PTSD and addiction as the drug turns off the fear center of the brain, allowing for a patient and therapist to dig into deepest wounds without pain or fear.

“The unmet medical need and opportunity for innovative approaches to treatment is very high,” Maxim Equity Research’s Jason McCarthy wrote.

Overall, studies have shown the positive effects of MDMA on these patients, and this is one of the reasons TD Veen is now a proud investor in Awakn. Øyvind Schanke told Streetwise Reports, “We believe in combining the [MDMD] compound with therapy at Awakn, and that is our belief that it needs to happen . . . I know this is needed.”

It seems many analysts agree with him. In July, H.C. Wainright & Co. Senior Healthcare Analyst Patrick Trucchio noted that “Awakn is advancing MDMA-assisted therapy for AUD in Europe, which we estimate could have blockbuster drug potential based on the significant unmet medical need and evidence generated to-date pointing to the potential of MDMA-assisted therapy in a variety of mood disorders.”

Then in November, Maxim Equity Research’s Jason McCarthy wrote, “Considering that private addiction treatment comes with a 70%-80% fail rate and treatment can cost north of US$30K, the opportunity for Awakn to improve this model is significant.” He went on to say, “The unmet medical need and opportunity for innovative approaches to treatment is very high.”

Awakn currently has five main clinics in Norway, and both the company and TD Veen hope this will continue to expand.

What’s Next?

Going forward, TD Veen will continue to invest in companies that, in their eyes, improve the world. They aim to generate enough funds so that exits aren’t needed because the fewer exists, the better. In 2022, TD Veen only had four exits and invested in six new companies. As Schanke said, “We want to be the world’s best minority shareholder.”

TD Veen was founded by Tor Dagfinn Veen in 1986. According to the company, “Today, Tor Dagfinn and Tone Veen own 28% of the shares, while daughters Camilla and Silje Veen own 36% each.

TD Veen has US$250 million under management, and they do not currently take money globally but focus on their family-centered business model. They are headquartered in Stavanger, Norway, and no matter what they invest in, they will do so under their mantra: An investment is only good if it also benefits society.

Disclosures:
1) Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

2) The following companies mentioned in this article are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports: Awakn Life Sciences Corp. Click here for important disclosures about sponsor fees. As of the date of this article, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports has a consulting relationship with: Awakn Life Sciences Corp. Please click here for more information.

3) Statements and opinions expressed are the opinions of the author and not of Streetwise Reports or its officers. The author is wholly responsible for the validity of the statements. The author was not paid by Streetwise Reports for this article. Streetwise Reports was not paid by the author to publish or syndicate this article. Streetwise Reports requires contributing authors to disclose any shareholdings in, or economic relationships with, companies that they write about. Streetwise Reports relies upon the authors to accurately provide this information and Streetwise Reports has no means of verifying its accuracy.

4) This article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional and any action a reader takes as a result of information presented here is his or her own responsibility. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

5) From time to time, Streetwise Reports LLC and its directors, officers, employees or members of their families, as well as persons interviewed for articles and interviews on the site, may have a long or short position in securities mentioned. Directors, officers, employees or members of their immediate families are prohibited from making purchases and/or sales of those securities in the open market or otherwise from the time of the decision to publish an article until three business days after the publication of the article. The foregoing prohibition does not apply to articles that in substance only restate previously published company releases. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Awakn Life Sciences Corp., a company mentioned in this article.

Financial News Stock Market News

30 Jan

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.01.30

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0889
Prev Close: 1.0867
% chg. over the last day: -0.20 %

The core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index declined from 4.7% to 4.4%. This indicator is on the US Federal Reserve’s list of monitored inflation indicators and influences monetary policy. It is clear that inflationary pressures in the US are declining, and the peak of inflation is behind us. The next move is up to the US Fed. A 0.25% rate hike this week is pretty much a done deal. The only uncertainty remains as to when the Fed will make its last rate hike and take a long pause.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0834, 1.0801, 1.0781, 1.0710, 1.0650, 1.0597, 1.0535
Resistance levels: 1.0882, 1.0926

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price is forming a price range again, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, the sellers’ pressure remains, but it is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0833 with confirmation in the form of a false breakdown on intraday time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0882, but better with a confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0801 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2023.01.30:

– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2397
Prev Close: 1.2393
% chg. over the last day: -0.03 %

There will be a lot of economic data on the UK this week. The main event will be the Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting, where an interest rate hike of 0.5% is expected. The British pound has been holding steady during the last trading week, but economists are not optimistic about the prospects of the UK economy and forecast a decrease in the quotes in the near future. According to experts, the UK economy is already in recession, and raising the rate will only increase the negative pressure.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2344, 1.2292, 1.2263, 1.2220, 1.2080, 1.2000, 1.1928, 1.1875, 1.1684
Resistance levels: 1.2413, 1.2446, 1.2519

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is still bullish. The price forms a narrow price range. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and buying pressure is decreasing, with liquidity narrowing into a triangle. This often happens before an impulse movement. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2344 but with a confirmation in the form of a false breakdown. It is better to look for sell trades from the resistance level of 1.2413, but it is also better to confirm in the form of a reverse initiative because a false breakout has already occurred.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2263 support level and fixes above it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 130.21
Prev Close: 129.83
% chg. over the last day: -0.29 %

Despite good economic data last week showing US GDP and Michigan sentiment outperforming expectations, the USD/JPY quotes were unable to move above 131.00. This suggests that investors are anticipating dollar weakness ahead of this week’s interest rate decision. Also, last week the IMF suggested that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) should be prepared to end economic stimulus quickly if inflation continues to rise and provide clear guidance to the market on any future policy changes.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 129.05, 128.16, 127.53, 126.19
Resistance levels: 130.27, 130.58, 131.10, 130.61, 131.58, 132.37, 132.95, 133.23

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is still bearish. The price is trading in the price corridor. The MACD indicator has become inactive, but within the day, sellers prevail. It is better to look for buy trades from the support level of 129.05, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be searched for from the resistance level of 130.27 in case of a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above the resistance level of 131.58, the uptrend will be renewed with a high probability.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3315
Prev Close: 1.3310
% chg. over the last day: -0.04 %

OPEC+ countries will meet this week. Delegates expect the advisory committee of ministers to recommend that production levels remain unchanged as global demand shows signs of potential recovery. Given current production and increasing Chinese demand, fundamentally, this could serve as the basis for a further rise in oil prices. Rising oil prices contribute to the strength of the Canadian currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3303, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3376, 1.3428, 1.3445, 1.3496, 1.3520, 1.3554, 1.3595, 1.3632

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price is trading at the level of moving averages. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there is a divergence. The return of the price above the trend line may provoke a sharp rise in quotes. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered when the price returns above 1.3325, but with additional confirmation in the form of an impulse initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.3376, but only with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3513, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

30 Jan

This week investors are waiting for interest rate decisions and reports from major companies

By JustMarkets

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.08% (+1.61% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.25% (+2.32% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.95% on Friday (+4.03% for the week).

The latest inflation data showed an improvement in the trajectory of core commodity prices and rate-sensitive components. The Fed’s favorite measure of Core PCE inflation fell from 4.7% to 4.4%, reinforcing the sense that interest rates are nearing a peak. Now the focus of policymakers has shifted to rebalancing the labor market and taking all measures to bring inflation to the target level. Will the Fed be able to do a “soft landing” of the economy, and what is the likelihood of the scenario? The data show an improving inflation picture, an orderly rebalancing of the labor market, and a relatively healthy consumer — all of these currently support the case for a “soft landing” more than a “hard landing.”

Many large companies report this week, so volatility in the stock market will increase substantially. Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com Inc (AMZN), Apple Inc (AAPL), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), Caterpillar Inc (CAT), Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Alibaba Group Holdings (BABA) are on the calendar.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.11% (+0.48% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.02% (+1.17% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.27% (+1.49% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) gained 0.05% (-0.07% for the week).

The ECB will hold an important monetary policy meeting this week. The ECB is expected to raise the rate by 0.5%, and this scenario, according to economists, is already priced in. The rate is expected to peak in May 2023 at 3.25-3.5% (the current rate is 2.5%). Next, economists predict a pause until late 2023, when the deteriorating economy leads to a series of quarter-point cuts, which will begin in June 2024. Although the economy did better late last year, thanks to falling natural gas prices, government assistance to households and businesses, and easing supply disruptions, two-thirds of respondents still expect a shallow recession in the region.

The Bank of England will also hold an interest rate meeting this week, where a 0.5% increase is expected. This will raise the cost of borrowing from 3.5% to 4.0%. The rate is expected to peak in March 2023 at 4.25%. The overall inflation rate should also begin to decline at a faster pace starting in March as the impact of last year’s steep rise in energy bills fades, and the pressure on commodities and food begins to ease more noticeably. A rate cut is expected in early 2024.

Last week, Chinese markets celebrated the Lunar New Year. Economists predict that this will give a boost to optimism about oil demand ahead of this week. Early data released from China showed an increase in tourism spending and box office receipts with outbound travel in the first six days of the Lunar New Year, up 120% compared to the same period last year. This will serve to bolster markets’ confidence in the world’s largest oil importers moving forward. Also, this week is the OPEC+ meeting. Delegates expect the advisory committee of ministers to recommend that production levels remain unchanged as global demand shows signs of potential recovery. Given current production and increasing Chinese demand, fundamentally, this could serve as the basis for further gains in oil prices.

Asian markets mostly rallied last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.87% over the week, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) did not trade all week due to Chinese New Year celebrations, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the week up by 5.46%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) decreased by 2.67%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the week up by 0.79%.

In the commodities market, lumber futures (+14.93%), coffee (+9.3%), sugar (+6.64%), and cocoa (+1.95%) showed the biggest gains last week. Natural gas futures (-10.11%), heating oil (-8.07%), palladium (-6.8%), WTI oil (-2.77%), platinum (-2.75%), and gasoline (-2.38%) showed the biggest drops.

According to strategists at Global Goldman Sachs, a key element of Japan’s ultra-easy monetary policy, known as yield curve control (YCC), has been the target of growing market skepticism in recent months, raising the possibility that the country may eventually abolish it entirely. The Bank of Japan originally introduced the YCC in September 2016 to prevent deflationary risks and to meet its 2% inflation target. But now, a number of factors, including the risk of inflation well above BOJ expectations, the prospect of higher wage growth, the deteriorating functioning of Japan’s government bond market, and the impending transition to a new BOJ governor, make a course change possible. The Bank of Japan may make further adjustments to the YCC as early as its next monetary policy meeting (MPM) in March.

According to Beijing University estimates, the number of Covid infections in China peaked in January. The subsequent higher level of immunity among the general population means that the secondary waves should have a smaller impact in terms of the number of severe cases. A recovery in Chinese consumption will be real but moderate. The housing market will face the prospect of a slower recovery than consumption or broad domestic demand.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) +4,070.56 +10.13 (+0.25%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,978.08 +28.67 (+0.084%)

DAX (DE40) 15,150.03 +17.18 (+0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,765.15 +4.04 (+0.052%)

USD Index 101.92 +0.08 (+0.08%)

Important events for today:

– Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
– Germany GDP (q/q) at 11:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Jan

Currency Speculators add to EuroFX bullish bets as EURUSD trades at 1.0900

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large market participants (for-profit speculators and commercial traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by EuroFX & US Dollar Index

The COT currency market speculator bets were higher this week as six out of the eleven currency markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the currency markets was the EuroFX (7,365 contracts) with the US Dollar Index (1,805 contracts), Japanese Yen (1,326 contracts), British Pound (763 contracts), Brazilian Real (592 contracts) and the Australian Dollar (449 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The currencies seeing declines in speculator bets on the week were the New Zealand Dollar (-3,884 contracts), the Canadian Dollar (-3,453 contracts), Swiss Franc (-1,567 contracts), Bitcoin (-810 contracts) and the Mexican Peso (-101 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT currency’s data this week is the strength of the speculator’s positioning in the Euro. Large speculative positions rose this week by over +7,300 contracts and have risen in four out of the past six weeks. Euro weekly positions have now also been higher in sixteen out of the past twenty-one weeks, going from a total of -47,676 contracts on August 30th to this week’s total net position of +134,349 contracts.

The Euro speculator positions have now been above +100,000 contracts for the past thirteen consecutive weeks which is the best streak since early in 2021. The Euro strength index, a measure of positions compared to the past three year’s range, has now moved up to a level of 76 percent strength of last three years.

The Euro exchange rate against the US Dollar hit it’s highest level this week since April above the 1.0900 exchange level. Since October, the Euro has now had higher weekly closes in eleven out of the past fifteen weeks and looks to soon make a run at the psychological 1.1000 level.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	41,233	48	15,163	50	-17,909	47	2,746	47
EUR	777,569	100	134,349	76	-186,450	23	52,101	62
GBP	194,051	33	-23,934	48	27,654	53	-3,720	51
JPY	173,321	34	-21,635	56	17,145	44	4,490	63
CHF	35,368	20	-9,508	29	11,565	64	-2,057	51
CAD	137,476	22	-30,712	5	29,159	93	1,553	33
AUD	129,490	29	-33,171	54	29,706	41	3,465	61
NZD	32,710	12	2,174	60	-4,241	36	2,067	75
MXN	272,655	83	-48,740	7	42,327	90	6,413	95
RUB	20,930	4	7,543	31	-7,150	69	-393	24
BRL	45,128	34	22,785	70	-23,618	30	833	71
Bitcoin	17,390	93	-1,437	52	912	0	525	25

Strength Scores led by EuroFX & Brazilian Real

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the EuroFX (76 percent) and the Brazilian Real (70 percent) lead the currency markets this week. The New Zealand Dollar (60 percent), Japanese Yen (56 percent) and the Australian Dollar (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Canadian Dollar (5 percent) and the Mexican Peso (7 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength scores are the Swiss Franc (29 percent) and the British Pound (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
US Dollar Index (50.2 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (47.2 percent)
EuroFX (76.2 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (74.0 percent)
British Pound Sterling (48.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (47.8 percent)
Japanese Yen (55.6 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (54.7 percent)
Swiss Franc (29.5 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (33.6 percent)
Canadian Dollar (5.2 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (9.3 percent)
Australian Dollar (54.1 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (53.7 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (60.0 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (70.4 percent)
Mexican Peso (6.7 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (6.8 percent)
Brazilian Real (70.3 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (69.7 percent)
Bitcoin (51.9 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (66.0 percent)

New Zealand Dollar & Brazilian Real top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the New Zealand Dollar (26 percent) and the Brazilian Real (21 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for the currencies. The Japanese Yen (19 percent), the Swiss Franc (6 percent) and the Australian Dollar (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Mexican Peso (-41 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Bitcoin (-24 percent), the US Dollar Index (-18 percent) and the Canadian Dollar (-4 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
US Dollar Index (-17.7 percent) vs US Dollar Index previous week (-19.2 percent)
EuroFX (3.0 percent) vs EuroFX previous week (0.6 percent)
British Pound Sterling (1.5 percent) vs British Pound Sterling previous week (3.0 percent)
Japanese Yen (19.4 percent) vs Japanese Yen previous week (26.5 percent)
Swiss Franc (6.1 percent) vs Swiss Franc previous week (11.3 percent)
Canadian Dollar (-4.1 percent) vs Canadian Dollar previous week (-6.2 percent)
Australian Dollar (4.3 percent) vs Australian Dollar previous week (6.4 percent)
New Zealand Dollar (25.9 percent) vs New Zealand Dollar previous week (33.6 percent)
Mexican Peso (-40.6 percent) vs Mexican Peso previous week (-42.1 percent)
Brazilian Real (20.7 percent) vs Brazilian Real previous week (21.4 percent)
Bitcoin (-24.4 percent) vs Bitcoin previous week (-12.1 percent)

Individual COT Forex Markets:

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 15,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,805 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 13,358 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 46.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	80.7	2.4	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	45.8	7.0
– Net Position:	15,163	-17,909	2,746
– Gross Longs:	33,291	981	5,614
– Gross Shorts:	18,128	18,890	2,868
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.8 to 1	0.1 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	50.2	47.3	46.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-17.7	16.8	0.5

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 134,349 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 7,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 126,984 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.6	55.2	12.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	13.3	79.2	5.7
– Net Position:	134,349	-186,450	52,101
– Gross Longs:	237,743	429,253	96,793
– Gross Shorts:	103,394	615,703	44,692
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.2	23.1	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.0	-8.2	31.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -23,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 763 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,697 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.7 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	65.6	13.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	51.3	15.5
– Net Position:	-23,934	27,654	-3,720
– Gross Longs:	34,756	127,207	26,309
– Gross Shorts:	58,690	99,553	30,029
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	48.5	52.9	50.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.5	-2.5	3.6

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -21,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,326 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,961 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 44.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.9	65.4	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.4	55.6	15.3
– Net Position:	-21,635	17,145	4,490
– Gross Longs:	27,620	113,437	31,009
– Gross Shorts:	49,255	96,292	26,519
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.6	44.0	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	19.4	-20.4	21.0

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -9,508 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,567 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -7,941 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.2	57.1	32.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	37.1	24.4	38.4
– Net Position:	-9,508	11,565	-2,057
– Gross Longs:	3,624	20,185	11,540
– Gross Shorts:	13,132	8,620	13,597
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.3 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.5	64.1	50.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.1	-7.3	7.1

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -30,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,453 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,259 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	18.9	56.4	22.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	41.2	35.2	21.4
– Net Position:	-30,712	29,159	1,553
– Gross Longs:	25,978	77,571	30,927
– Gross Shorts:	56,690	48,412	29,374
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.6 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	5.2	93.0	33.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	3.5	-1.6

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -33,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 449 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -33,620 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.8	57.8	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	48.4	34.8	15.0
– Net Position:	-33,171	29,706	3,465
– Gross Longs:	29,466	74,818	22,903
– Gross Shorts:	62,637	45,112	19,438
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.1	41.0	60.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-9.8	20.7

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 2,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,884 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 6,058 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.4 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	50.9	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.4	63.9	9.2
– Net Position:	2,174	-4,241	2,067
– Gross Longs:	10,170	16,662	5,077
– Gross Shorts:	7,996	20,903	3,010
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.0	36.5	75.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.9	-24.4	7.6

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -101 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,639 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.3 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.4	42.2	3.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.3	26.7	0.8
– Net Position:	-48,740	42,327	6,413
– Gross Longs:	148,265	115,053	8,628
– Gross Shorts:	197,005	72,726	2,215
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.6 to 1	3.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	90.3	95.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-40.6	39.2	5.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 22,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 592 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 22,193 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.4 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	79.1	13.0	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	28.6	65.3	6.1
– Net Position:	22,785	-23,618	833
– Gross Longs:	35,691	5,847	3,585
– Gross Shorts:	12,906	29,465	2,752
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.8 to 1	0.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.3	30.3	71.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.7	-18.9	-14.2

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -1,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -627 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 51.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	75.0	7.8	8.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	83.2	2.6	5.4
– Net Position:	-1,437	912	525
– Gross Longs:	13,036	1,365	1,467
– Gross Shorts:	14,473	453	942
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	3.0 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	51.9	100.0	24.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.4	59.0	1.7

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Forex and Currency News Opinions

29 Jan

COT Stock Markets: Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500-Mini

The COT stock markets speculator bets were lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other five markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (17,827 contracts) with the DowJones-Mini (647 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were MSCI EAFE-Mini (-5,924 contracts) with the Nasdaq-Mini (-4,628 contracts), Russell-Mini (-4,486 contracts), Nikkei 225 (-887 contracts) and the VIX (-794 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
S&P500-Mini	2,024,437	2	-208,991	17	202,765	77	6,226	28
Nikkei 225	14,537	11	-4,712	55	5,546	57	-834	18
Nasdaq-Mini	273,887	56	-25,261	61	37,079	49	-11,818	30
DowJones-Mini	77,652	39	-9,966	28	12,227	73	-2,261	29
VIX	295,825	36	-53,149	76	58,259	24	-5,110	67
Nikkei 225 Yen	32,904	5	6,480	54	-3,912	0	-2,568	76

Strength Scores led by VIX & Nasdaq-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the VIX (76 percent) and the Nasdaq-Mini (61 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The Nikkei 225 (55 percent) and Nikkei 225 Yen (54 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (2 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score is the S&P500-Mini (17 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (76.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (76.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (17.5 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (14.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (28.3 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (27.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (60.9 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (63.5 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (30.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (32.9 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.1 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (59.3 percent)
EAFE-Mini (2.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (9.7 percent)

VIX & S&P500-Mini top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the VIX (21 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The S&P500-Mini (4 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (4 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Nasdaq-Mini (-25 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-24 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (20.6 percent) vs VIX previous week (15.3 percent)
S&P500-Mini (3.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-4.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (3.9 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-24.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (-19.1 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-2.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (6.1 percent)
Nikkei USD (-10.0 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-6.1 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-23.7 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-26.2 percent)

Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

The VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -53,149 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -794 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -52,355 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	17.9	56.0	6.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.8	36.3	8.4
– Net Position:	-53,149	58,259	-5,110
– Gross Longs:	52,816	165,673	19,828
– Gross Shorts:	105,965	107,414	24,938
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	76.0	23.9	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.6	-18.2	-12.7

S&P500 Mini Futures:

The S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -208,991 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -226,818 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 77.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.7 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	12.4	73.4	12.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	63.4	11.8
– Net Position:	-208,991	202,765	6,226
– Gross Longs:	250,474	1,485,629	244,122
– Gross Shorts:	459,465	1,282,864	237,896
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.5 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	77.3	27.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-1.3	-2.3

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

The Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -9,966 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 647 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -10,613 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	50.9	17.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	35.1	20.8
– Net Position:	-9,966	12,227	-2,261
– Gross Longs:	21,106	39,500	13,893
– Gross Shorts:	31,072	27,273	16,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.3	73.5	29.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.9	-11.6	28.0

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

The Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -25,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -4,628 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -20,633 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	22.0	63.4	12.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.2	49.8	16.3
– Net Position:	-25,261	37,079	-11,818
– Gross Longs:	60,241	173,611	32,846
– Gross Shorts:	85,502	136,532	44,664
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	60.9	49.3	29.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-24.8	30.7	-10.3

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

The Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -67,401 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,486 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -62,915 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 30.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 45.5 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.9	83.7	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	24.8	69.2	4.7
– Net Position:	-67,401	61,283	6,118
– Gross Longs:	37,737	354,541	26,065
– Gross Shorts:	105,138	293,258	19,947
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	30.3	65.8	45.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.1	2.0	-0.1

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

The Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -887 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,825 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.9 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.2	63.8	16.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.6	25.7	22.7
– Net Position:	-4,712	5,546	-834
– Gross Longs:	2,786	9,279	2,461
– Gross Shorts:	7,498	3,733	3,295
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	55.1	57.4	17.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	21.0	-26.1

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

The MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -34,202 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -5,924 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -28,278 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.9 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.5	89.8	3.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	15.5	82.7	1.2
– Net Position:	-34,202	27,075	7,127
– Gross Longs:	24,429	339,047	11,492
– Gross Shorts:	58,631	311,972	4,365
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.1 to 1	2.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	2.4	91.8	78.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.7	26.8	-21.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Financial News Stock Market News

29 Jan

COT Bonds Speculators cut back on Eurodollar bearish bets for 10th time in 11 weeks

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Fed Funds & 5-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the eight bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the Fed Funds (50,405 contracts) with the 5-Year Bonds (41,918 contracts), the Eurodollar (39,979 contracts), the 10-Year Bonds (3,236 contracts), and the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (410 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-29,935 contracts), the US Treasury Bonds (-3,423 contracts) and the 2-Year Bonds (-14,352 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT bond’s data this week is the continued improvement of the speculator positioning in the Eurodollar. Large speculative positions for the Eurodollar rose this week by almost +40,000 contracts and have now improved (or become less bearish) in ten out of the past eleven weeks. This recent improvement has taken +1,098,777 contracts off of the overall bearish position, going from a total bearish net position of -2,112,650 contracts on November 8th to this week’s total net position of -1,013,873 contracts (an improvement of approximately 50 percent).

Eurodollar futures contracts are one of the largest futures markets and are essentially a bet on short-term interest rates. As Eurodollar prices fall, the implied interest rises (and vice versa) and at this moment, the price of Eurodollar futures is approximately 95.00 for an implied interest rate of 5.00 percent.

The decrease in the bearish positioning of speculators suggests that traders are anticipating a possible peak has happened in the short-term interest rates. This is likely due to falling inflation and anticipation of the US Federal Reserve slowing their interest rate hikes.

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Eurodollar	5,949,563	1	-1,013,873	34	1,212,772	63	-198,899	61
FedFunds	1,798,641	72	-35,830	35	61,847	67	-26,017	0
2-Year	2,416,615	29	-477,023	16	454,881	79	22,142	62
Long T-Bond	1,235,758	50	-195,816	21	155,710	66	40,106	84
10-Year	4,124,381	73	-541,821	0	598,839	93	-57,018	67
5-Year	4,162,628	61	-638,737	7	633,820	84	4,917	82

Strength Scores led by Fed Funds & Eurodollar

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Fed Funds (35 percent) and the Eurodollar (34 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The US Treasury Bonds (21 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the 10-Year Bonds (0 percent), the Ultra Treasury Bonds (5 percent), the 5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (16.2 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are all in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (35.2 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (29.0 percent)
2-Year Bond (16.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (18.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (1.4 percent)
10-Year Bond (0.4 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (0.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (0.0 percent)
US Treasury Bond (20.9 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (22.0 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (4.8 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (18.6 percent)
Eurodollar (34.5 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (33.8 percent)

Eurodollar & 2-Year Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Eurodollar (11 percent) and the 2-Year Bonds (7 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 5-Year Bonds (7 percent) is the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The US Treasury Bonds (-26 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the 10-Year Bonds (-23 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-22 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (4.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-0.9 percent)
2-Year Bond (6.6 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (10.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (6.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-2.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-22.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (-24.2 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (-6.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-4.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-25.7 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-25.1 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-22.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-6.3 percent)
Eurodollar (11.1 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (10.9 percent)

Individual Bond Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

The 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,013,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 39,979 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,053,852 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.8	68.5	5.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	25.8	48.1	8.3
– Net Position:	-1,013,873	1,212,772	-198,899
– Gross Longs:	522,881	4,073,591	295,903
– Gross Shorts:	1,536,754	2,860,819	494,802
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.5	62.8	60.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.1	-11.3	7.5

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

The 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -35,830 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 50,405 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,235 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	9.7	75.4	1.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	11.7	72.0	3.2
– Net Position:	-35,830	61,847	-26,017
– Gross Longs:	174,466	1,356,289	31,773
– Gross Shorts:	210,296	1,294,442	57,790
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.2	67.4	0.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.7	-2.6	-45.1

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -477,023 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -14,352 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -462,671 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 61.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.7	81.6	8.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	27.5	62.8	7.7
– Net Position:	-477,023	454,881	22,142
– Gross Longs:	186,740	1,972,486	207,471
– Gross Shorts:	663,763	1,517,605	185,329
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.3 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	16.2	79.5	61.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.6	-9.7	8.7

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -638,737 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 41,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -680,655 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 6.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.4 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	6.2	83.8	8.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.6	68.6	8.4
– Net Position:	-638,737	633,820	4,917
– Gross Longs:	259,978	3,489,305	354,429
– Gross Shorts:	898,715	2,855,485	349,512
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	6.7	84.1	82.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.7	-15.9	24.0

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

The 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -541,821 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,236 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -545,057 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	8.7	80.3	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.8	65.7	10.1
– Net Position:	-541,821	598,839	-57,018
– Gross Longs:	359,177	3,310,111	360,007
– Gross Shorts:	900,998	2,711,272	417,025
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	93.0	66.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.8	14.7	9.8

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

The Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -125,911 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 410 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -126,321 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	10.7	77.5	10.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	62.9	16.6
– Net Position:	-125,911	216,769	-90,858
– Gross Longs:	158,914	1,148,114	155,215
– Gross Shorts:	284,825	931,345	246,073
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.2 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.1	95.9	66.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.1	5.5	1.8

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -195,816 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,423 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -192,393 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent.

US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.2	80.9	14.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.0	68.3	11.2
– Net Position:	-195,816	155,710	40,106
– Gross Longs:	51,463	1,000,159	178,920
– Gross Shorts:	247,279	844,449	138,814
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.2 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	66.1	84.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.7	28.3	-0.3

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

The Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -415,363 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -29,935 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -385,428 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 73.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	3.8	84.4	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	32.9	58.8	8.2
– Net Position:	-415,363	365,215	50,148
– Gross Longs:	53,821	1,203,706	166,548
– Gross Shorts:	469,184	838,491	116,400
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	1.4 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.8	100.0	73.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-22.2	30.9	-5.1

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

Bonds COT Updates Opinions

28 Jan

Speculators Weekly: Soybean Meal, Heating Oil & Wheat lead Bullish & Bearish Positions

By InvestMacro

The latest update for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report was released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday for data ending on January 24th.

This weekly Extreme Positions report highlights the Most Bullish and Most Bearish Positions for the speculator category. Extreme positioning in these markets can foreshadow strong moves in the underlying market.

To signify an extreme position, we use the Strength Index (also known as the COT Index) of each instrument, a common method of measuring COT data. The Strength Index is simply a comparison of current trader positions against the range of positions over the previous 3 years. We use over 80 percent as extremely bullish and under 20 percent as extremely bearish. (Compare Strength Index scores across all markets in the data table or cot leaders table)

Here Are This Week’s Most Bullish Speculator Positions:

Soybean Meal

The Soybean Meal speculator position comes in as the most bullish extreme standing again this week and has been for multiple weeks. The Soybean Meal speculator level is currently at a 92.3 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score totaled 7.5 this week. The overall net speculator position was a total of 149,785 net contracts this week with a change of -16,565 contract in the weekly speculator bets.

Heating Oil

The Heating Oil speculator position comes next in the extreme standings this week. The Heating Oil speculator level is now at a 79.7 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the percent strength score was 11.8 this week. The speculator position registered 25,360 net contracts this week with a weekly change of 6,854 contracts in speculator bets.

Euro

The Euro speculator position comes in third this week in the extreme standings. The Euro speculator level resides at a 76.2 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score came in at 3.0 this week. The overall speculator position was 134,349 net contracts this week with a change of 7,365 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

VIX

The VIX speculator position comes up number four in the extreme standings this week. The VIX speculator level is at a 76.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score totaled a change of 20.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -53,149 net contracts this week with a change of -794 contracts in the speculator bets.

Brazil Real

The Brazil Real speculator position rounds out the top five in this week’s bullish extreme standings. The Brazil Real speculator level sits at a 70.3 percent score of its 3-year range. The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was 20.7 this week.

The speculator position was 22,785 net contracts this week with a change of 592 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

This Week’s Most Bearish Speculator Positions:

Wheat

The Wheat speculator position comes in as the most bearish extreme standing this week. The Wheat speculator level is at a 0.0 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -7.6 this week. The overall speculator position was -48,320 net contracts this week with a change of -6,306 contracts in the speculator bets.

Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note

The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator position comes in next for the most bearish extreme standing on the week. The Ultra 10-Year U.S. T-Note speculator level is at a 0.1 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -6.1 this week. The speculator position was -125,911 net contracts this week with a change of 410 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Lean Hogs

The Lean Hogs speculator position comes in as third most bearish extreme standing of the week. The Lean Hogs speculator level resides at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -36.8 this week. The overall speculator position was 3,166 net contracts this week with a change of -12,741 contracts in the speculator bets.

10-Year Note

The 10-Year Note speculator position comes in as this week’s fourth most bearish extreme standing. The 10-Year Note speculator level is at a 0.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -22.8 this week. The speculator position was -541,821 net contracts this week with a change of 3,236 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

MSCI EAFE MINI

Finally, the MSCI EAFE MINI speculator position comes in as the fifth most bearish extreme standing for this week. The MSCI EAFE MINI speculator level is at a 2.4 percent score of its 3-year range.

The six-week trend for the speculator strength score was -23.7 this week. The speculator position was -34,202 net contracts this week with a change of -5,924 contracts in the weekly speculator bets.

Speculators or Non-Commercials Notes:

Speculators, classified as non-commercial traders by the CFTC, are made up of large commodity funds, hedge funds and other significant for-profit participants. The Specs are generally regarded as trend-followers in their behavior towards price action – net speculator bets and prices tend to go in the same directions. These traders often look to buy when prices are rising and sell when prices are falling. To illustrate this point, many times speculator contracts can be found at their most extremes (bullish or bearish) when prices are also close to their highest or lowest levels.

These extreme levels can be dangerous for the large speculators as the trade is most crowded, there is less trading ammunition still sitting on the sidelines to push the trend further and prices have moved a significant distance. When the trend becomes exhausted, some speculators take profits while others look to also exit positions when prices fail to continue in the same direction. This process usually plays out over many months to years and can ultimately create a reverse effect where prices start to fall and speculators start a process of selling when prices are falling.

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions

28 Jan

Large Metals Speculators continue to boost Gold bullish bets to 30-week high

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Gold & Copper

The COT metals markets speculator bets were lower this week as two out of the five precious metals markets we cover had higher positioning while the other three markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the metals was Gold (4,433 contracts) with Copper (3,932 contracts) also showing a positive week.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Silver (-5,784 contracts), Platinum (-3,283 contracts) and Palladium (-546 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT metals data this week is the continued bullishness for the Gold speculative positions. The large speculator position in Gold futures advanced once again this week for an eighth straight week and for the tenth time out of the past twelve weeks. The Gold position has now risen from a total of +64,623 contracts on November 1st to a new 30-week high at a total of +157,673 contracts this week.

The Gold futures price closed slightly higher again this week and has now been up for six consecutive weeks. This week’s high was right below the $1,950.00 level and marked the highest Gold prices have reached since April. Gold may be due for a breather with the daily RSI Indicator showing overbought levels but with the US Dollar trending lower, Gold may have a bright outlook in 2023.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42

Strength Scores led by Copper & Silver

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Copper (52 percent) leads the metals markets this week. Silver (42 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Palladium (8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent). The next lowest strength score was Gold (35 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (35.0 percent) vs Gold previous week (33.5 percent)
Silver (42.4 percent) vs Silver previous week (48.8 percent)
Copper (52.4 percent) vs Copper previous week (49.2 percent)
Platinum (38.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (43.6 percent)
Palladium (7.5 percent) vs Palladium previous week (12.9 percent)

Copper & Gold top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Copper (14 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals. Gold (11 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Palladium (-24 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Platinum (-12 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (10.6 percent) vs Gold previous week (12.6 percent)
Silver (3.2 percent) vs Silver previous week (13.5 percent)
Copper (14.0 percent) vs Copper previous week (11.6 percent)
Platinum (-11.8 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-3.0 percent)
Palladium (-23.9 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-13.7 percent)

Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

The Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 157,673 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,433 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 153,240 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

Gold Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	50.7	25.5	9.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.1	61.6	5.0
– Net Position:	157,673	-180,554	22,881
– Gross Longs:	253,311	127,419	47,880
– Gross Shorts:	95,638	307,973	24,999
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.6 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	35.0	63.4	37.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	10.6	-13.0	25.1

Silver Comex Futures:

The Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 25,684 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,784 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,468 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 57.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.0 percent.

Silver Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	35.1	17.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.2	64.3	7.5
– Net Position:	25,684	-39,461	13,777
– Gross Longs:	55,595	47,359	23,875
– Gross Shorts:	29,911	86,820	10,098
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	42.4	57.9	41.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	3.2	-3.5	4.2

Copper Grade #1 Futures:

The Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,170 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 3,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,238 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent.

Copper Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	41.2	35.0	9.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	31.8	47.4	6.3
– Net Position:	20,170	-26,542	6,372
– Gross Longs:	87,941	74,715	19,913
– Gross Shorts:	67,771	101,257	13,541
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	52.4	46.4	62.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	14.0	-15.5	13.7

Platinum Futures:

The Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 20,261 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,283 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 23,544 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.5 percent.

Platinum Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.1	30.9	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	26.2	66.4	3.6
– Net Position:	20,261	-25,819	5,558
– Gross Longs:	39,279	22,428	8,206
– Gross Shorts:	19,018	48,247	2,648
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	60.9	42.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	9.2	18.3

Palladium Futures:

The Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -3,297 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -546 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,751 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 91.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent.

Palladium Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.1	62.2	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	54.3	24.5	15.5
– Net Position:	-3,297	3,534	-237
– Gross Longs:	1,787	5,826	1,212
– Gross Shorts:	5,084	2,292	1,449
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.5 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	7.5	91.1	27.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-23.9	24.3	-16.0

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Metals Opinions

28 Jan

Soft Commodities Speculators drop Lean Hogs bets for 4th week to 134-week low

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday January 24th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Cotton & Corn

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were lower this week as just three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Cotton (9,880 contracts) with Corn (5,496 contracts) and Coffee (4,017 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Soybean Oil (-20,245 contracts) with Soybean Meal (-16,565 contracts), Soybeans (-13,843 contracts), Lean Hogs (-12,741 contracts), Live Cattle (-7,915 contracts), Wheat (-6,306 contracts), Cocoa (-2,757 contracts) and Sugar (-1,614 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Highlighting the COT soft commodities data this week is the swift and strong decrease in the Lean Hogs speculator’s positioning. The large speculator bets for Lean Hogs fell this week for a fourth consecutive week (by a total of -41,547 contracts) and for the sixth time in the past nine weeks.

The speculator’s net position has dropped from a total of +44,713 contracts on December 27th to an overall bullish level of just +3,166 contracts this week. This recent weakness in speculator sentiment has now pushed the overall net position standing for Lean Hogs to the lowest level in the past 134 weeks, dating back to June 30th of 2020.

Lean Hogs prices have been under pressure since reaching a recent high in July above the 115.00 price level as the market has responded to ample hogs supply. Since then, the Lean Hog futures price (front-month) has fallen by over 30 percent and closed this week at the lowest level since late in 2021.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend

Jan-24-2023	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
WTI Crude	1,660,450	23	249,799	12	-273,246	88	23,447	38
Gold	499,927	25	157,673	35	-180,554	63	22,881	37
Silver	134,922	12	25,684	42	-39,461	58	13,777	41
Copper	213,398	52	20,170	52	-26,542	46	6,372	62
Palladium	9,363	20	-3,297	8	3,534	91	-237	27
Platinum	72,613	46	20,261	39	-25,819	61	5,558	42
Natural Gas	1,102,760	27	-170,972	24	138,482	78	32,490	57
Brent	153,686	14	-36,800	41	33,917	57	2,883	48
Heating Oil	278,159	27	25,360	80	-48,540	20	23,180	79
Soybeans	667,416	20	155,222	59	-117,945	52	-37,277	8
Corn	1,274,410	11	277,369	65	-205,662	43	-71,707	2
Coffee	231,360	35	-22,728	4	20,167	96	2,561	35
Sugar	924,848	42	185,084	58	-229,339	37	44,255	63
Wheat	350,331	27	-48,320	0	50,423	100	-2,103	99

Strength Scores led by Soybean Meal & Corn

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (92 percent) and Corn (65 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Live Cattle (62 percent), Soybeans (59 percent) and Sugar (58 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Lean Hogs (0 percent), Wheat (0 percent) and Coffee (4 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (65.5 percent) vs Corn previous week (64.8 percent)
Sugar (57.6 percent) vs Sugar previous week (58.1 percent)
Coffee (4.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (0.0 percent)
Soybeans (59.4 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (63.9 percent)
Soybean Oil (29.9 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (43.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (92.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (100.0 percent)
Live Cattle (62.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (72.3 percent)
Lean Hogs (0.4 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (15.8 percent)
Cotton (20.9 percent) vs Cotton previous week (13.3 percent)
Cocoa (41.5 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (44.2 percent)
Wheat (0.0 percent) vs Wheat previous week (5.7 percent)

Soybeans & Live Cattle top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Soybeans (13 percent) and Live Cattle (9 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (8 percent), Soybean Meal (8 percent) and Cotton (3 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

Lean Hogs (-37 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Coffee (-14 percent), Soybean Oil (-11 percent) and Wheat (-8 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (8.3 percent) vs Corn previous week (9.4 percent)
Sugar (-2.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (1.2 percent)
Coffee (-13.6 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-12.4 percent)
Soybeans (13.5 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (25.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-11.3 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-4.7 percent)
Soybean Meal (7.5 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (20.5 percent)
Live Cattle (9.3 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (23.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (-36.8 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (-27.8 percent)
Cotton (2.6 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-8.2 percent)
Cocoa (1.6 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (9.6 percent)
Wheat (-7.6 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-1.9 percent)

Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

The CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 277,369 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 5,496 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 271,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 42.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.1 percent.

CORN Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	43.8	9.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	8.7	60.0	14.7
– Net Position:	277,369	-205,662	-71,707
– Gross Longs:	388,317	558,456	115,106
– Gross Shorts:	110,948	764,118	186,813
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.5 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.5	42.6	2.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-4.6	-22.3

SUGAR Futures:

The SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 185,084 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,614 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 57.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent.

SUGAR Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.2	43.8	9.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	9.2	68.6	5.1
– Net Position:	185,084	-229,339	44,255
– Gross Longs:	270,150	404,948	91,086
– Gross Shorts:	85,066	634,287	46,831
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.2 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	57.6	37.4	62.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.7	-0.2	10.8

COFFEE Futures:

The COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -22,728 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -26,745 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

COFFEE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	19.6	52.9	4.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.4	44.2	3.5
– Net Position:	-22,728	20,167	2,561
– Gross Longs:	45,404	122,400	10,598
– Gross Shorts:	68,132	102,233	8,037
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.2 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.1	95.9	35.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-13.6	11.6	21.5

SOYBEANS Futures:

The SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 155,222 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,843 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 169,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.0 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	46.6	6.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	7.7	64.3	12.5
– Net Position:	155,222	-117,945	-37,277
– Gross Longs:	206,329	311,307	46,219
– Gross Shorts:	51,107	429,252	83,496
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.0 to 1	0.7 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	59.4	52.5	8.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	13.5	-11.7	-10.6

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

The SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 59,495 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 72.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	20.1	50.6	8.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	10.3	61.6	7.4
– Net Position:	39,250	-44,514	5,264
– Gross Longs:	80,599	203,133	34,963
– Gross Shorts:	41,349	247,647	29,699
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	29.9	72.2	33.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.3	15.1	-28.4

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

The SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 149,785 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -16,565 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 166,350 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.1	32.9	11.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	4.5	73.2	7.1
– Net Position:	149,785	-169,008	19,223
– Gross Longs:	168,470	138,088	49,137
– Gross Shorts:	18,685	307,096	29,914
– Long to Short Ratio:	9.0 to 1	0.4 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.3	7.8	32.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	7.5	-7.7	3.2

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

The LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 66,228 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 74,143 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.4 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	37.0	30.6	11.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.1	50.4	12.2
– Net Position:	66,228	-62,823	-3,405
– Gross Longs:	117,249	96,720	35,368
– Gross Shorts:	51,021	159,543	38,773
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	62.4	27.2	70.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	9.3	-10.5	1.4

LEAN HOGS Futures:

The LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 3,166 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -12,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,907 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 96.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.4 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.3	36.7	11.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.8	37.0	12.5
– Net Position:	3,166	-682	-2,484
– Gross Longs:	66,938	75,927	23,357
– Gross Shorts:	63,772	76,609	25,841
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.4	96.9	95.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-36.8	27.7	47.8

COTTON Futures:

The COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 17,833 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,880 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent.

COTTON Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	29.6	48.5	6.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	58.0	5.3
– Net Position:	17,833	-19,679	1,846
– Gross Longs:	61,599	100,981	12,918
– Gross Shorts:	43,766	120,660	11,072
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	20.9	79.2	22.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.6	-3.4	9.5

COCOA Futures:

The COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,941 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -2,757 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,698 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.9 percent.

COCOA Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.1	47.3	4.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.6	57.2	2.9
– Net Position:	24,941	-28,978	4,037
– Gross Longs:	90,986	138,394	12,460
– Gross Shorts:	66,045	167,372	8,423
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	41.5	58.8	36.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	1.6	-2.3	6.9

WHEAT Futures:

The WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,320 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -6,306 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.5 percent.

WHEAT Futures Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.3	40.7	9.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	39.1	26.3	10.3
– Net Position:	-48,320	50,423	-2,103
– Gross Longs:	88,787	142,422	33,981
– Gross Shorts:	137,107	91,999	36,084
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.5 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.0	100.0	99.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-7.6	8.2	4.5

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

COT Updates Opinions Soft Commodities

27 Jan

Murrey Math Lines 27.01.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates prevalence of an uptrend. The RSI has broken through the resistance line. The quotes are now expected to rise above 8/8 (87.50) and later reach the resistance level of +2/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 7/8 (85.94). In this case, the quotes may drop to 5/8 (82.81).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which confirms the uptrend and increases the probability of further growth.

S&P 500

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates an uptrend. A divergence has formed on the RSI, being a signal for a correction to start. As a result, a bounce off 4/8 (4062.5) should be expected, followed by falling of the support level of 2/8 (3906.2). The scenario can be cancelled by an upwards breakaway of the resistance level. In this case, the quotes might keep growing and reach 5/8 (4141.6).

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

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