The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC, BLUR). Overview for 15.02.2023

By RoboForex.com

The BTC found a foothold and recovered. The quote on Wednesday is 22,127 USD. The fact that the BTC has out falling on halt is good news. The market did not reach the support level of 21,500 USD, after all. This means, sliding down to 20,500 USD is postponed. To go on growing, the BTC needs to secure above 22,450-22,500 USD. The growth to 23,000 and 25,000 USD will become quite realistic.

Capitalisation of the crypto market has returned to 1.025 trillion USD. The BTC takes up 41.6% of the market and the ETH – 18.5%.

Companies got class action after FTX ads

Venture business faced a class action from its clients after a series of ads about the FTX exchange. Earlier, the exchange crashed. Now such companies as Paradigm, Sequoia and Thoma Bravo will have to answer for money withdrawal at the collapse of the exchange.

BLUR dropped by 85%

The BLUR price lost 85% overnight. The trading day was volatile: the coin had just been released to the exchange with capitalisation of 772 million USD. The price was initially 5 USD but then dropped to 0.78 USD.

Binance: stablecoins need to be bound not only to USD

At a question-answer Twitter session, the head of the Binance exchange mentioned that stablecoins need to be bound to more currencies than the USD. This will reverse the course of the crusade against stablecoins and will increase rivalry with other coins bound to fiat currencies. The market will only win.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Solid US CPI sees rates move higher

By ForexTime 

The latest US CPI data showed us that the headline rate for prices rose 6.4% in January – a small slowdown from the prior month but higher than economists had predicted. The core annual figure also came in mildly stronger than expected but still lower compared to the prior readings, while the monthly prints hit the consensus estimates.

However, a core reading of 0.4% is still too strong for the Fed whose inflation target is 2%.

Economists believe an increase of around 0.17% is needed over time to hit this key objective.

A bumper US jobs report had stoked fears of stronger-than-expected numbers all round. So the data does suggest a slowing at least in the falling price pressures that we have seen over the past few months from last year’s high above 9%.

The “super core” number which excludes housing and is Powell’s key variable, remains uncomfortably high and is consistent with another couple of smaller rate hikes. Concerns about the tight labour market may also linger while the new seasonal adjustment is likely to be modestly inflationary.

DXY still stuck in a range

In which light, after some initial selling in the greenback immediately after the data, USD clawed back all its intraday losses and finished marginally in the green on the day.

Importantly, US Treasury yields also rebounded strongly from their initial move with the 10-year hitting levels not seen since the start of the year close to 3.80%.

Money markets have pushed the Fed funds terminal rate higher by a few basis points and it now stands around 5.27% in July.

There is now less than a 25bp rate cut priced in by the end of the year.

The dollar index, measured against six of its major trading partners, has rebounded this month after dropping to a multi-month low at 100.82 at the start of February.

The scarcely believable headline NFP print at the start of the month encouraged more buying, but prices have hit a long-term resistance zone between 103 and 104. This includes the pandemic spike high at 102.99 and the top from January 2017 at 103.82, as well as the 50-day simple moving average at 103.22.

The index dipped intraday yesterday and made an intraday low at 102.58 but buyers quickly stepped in. The longer prices track sideways, the stronger the breakout and range expansion will be.

 


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ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.02.15

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0718
  • Prev Close: 1.0735
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.16 %

The US inflation rate declined from 6.5% to 6.4% (forecast 6.2%) annually, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also declined from 5.7% to 5.6% (forecast 5.5%). Although inflationary pressures are easing, the fall in inflation is not happening as quickly as the US Federal Reserve had predicted. This factor increases the likelihood that the US Fed will hold one or two more interest rate hikes before pausing. Therefore, in the short term, the dollar has fundamental reasons to strengthen. On the other hand, the ECB is now acting more aggressively than the US Fed, and the narrowing of the interest rate differential should play in favor of a stronger euro in the medium term.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0686, 1.0597
  • Resistance levels: 1.0838, 1.0906, 1.0926, 1.0967, 1.1017, 1.1077

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is forming a wide corridor. Yesterday, the liquidity above the level of 1.0791 was tested, after which the price returned to the balance. The MACD indicator became inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.0686. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0839, but it is better with confirmation in the form of reverse initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the resistance level of 1.0926 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2023.02.15:
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2132
  • Prev Close: 1.2174
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.35 %

The GBP/USD quotes strengthened on Tuesday after UK employment figures beat estimates. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7% while the economy added 74K jobs last month, with expectations of 40K. But the potential for growth in quotes was limited by stronger-than-expected January US consumer price indices that resulted in an increase in Treasury bond yields. Expectations for the Fed’s final rate could rise slightly, which would create a favorable environment for the US dollar, and threaten the pound’s recovery, especially if the rate differential widens.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2082, 1.2000, 1.1930
  • Resistance levels: 1.2188, 1.2311, 1.2416

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading above the moving averages, and there is a slight buying pressure inside the day. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2200, but with confirmation in the form of initiative and short targets. Sell trades are best sought after a pullback from the resistance level of 1.2188 but are also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2416 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2023.02.15:
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 132.40
  • Prev Close: 133.08
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.87 %

The Japanese government on Tuesday introduced Kazuo Ueda as a candidate for the next governor of the Bank of Japan, suggesting the academic and former Bank of Japan policymaker will replace Haruhiko Kuroda. The new leadership is said to be attuned to the complex challenges facing the central bank, from addressing the side effects of years of monetary policy easing that has distorted bond markets and widened the Bank of Japan’s balance sheet. Ueda’s nomination, along with those of two deputy governors, Ryozo Himino, a former Financial Services Agency commissioner, and Shinichi Uchida, the Central Bank’s executive director, is expected to be approved by mid-March. Given that Ueda will not dramatically change monetary policy, the Japanese yen continued its decline.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 131.43, 129.68, 129.98, 129.19, 129.04, 128.16
  • Resistance levels: 133.47, 134.65

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is forming a wide-volatile corridor. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of divergence. Buying pressure is present, but it is limited. It is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 131.43, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be sought after an impulse return of the price to the balance below the level of 132.89.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below the support level of 128.16, the downtrend will be renewed with a high probability.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3331
  • Prev Close: 1.3335
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.03 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it highly depends on instruments such as the dollar index and oil. A decline in oil prices on the back of rising inventories and a strengthening dollar index are negative factors for the Canadian currency. Higher than expected US inflation data added to fears of more hawkish actions by the Federal Reserve, which caused the dollar to rise. At the moment, the interest rate differential between the US Fed and the Bank of Canada is only 0.25%, so any rise in oil prices would help to strengthen the Canadian economy.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3333, 1.3295, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3416, 1.3496, 1.3520, 1.3554, 1.3595

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price corrected up to the priority change level, after which there was a sharp rebound. The MACD indicator became positive, and buyers would dominate during the day. Buy trades can be considered from the support at 1.3333, but with additional confirmation on the lower time frames, as the level has already been tested. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.3416 but on the condition of a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3263, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2023.02.15:
  • – Canada Manufacturing Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The prospect of higher interest rates increases the likelihood of a recession in the US this year

By JustMarkets

The US indices traded yesterday without a single dynamic. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) Index decreased by 0.46%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.57%. The latest consumer price data showed that the US inflation rate fell from 6.5% to 6.4% (forecast 6.2%) annually, with core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also falling from 5.7% to 5.6% (forecast 5.5%). Inflationary pressures are declining, but not as quickly as the US Fed would like. Because of this, expectations for the Fed’s final interest rate may rise slightly, which would create a favorable environment for the US dollar and government bonds and an unfavorable situation for stock indices. The prospect of higher interest rates also increases the likelihood of a US recession this year, as rising short-term yields reflect investor fears of slower economic growth.

NVIDIA (NVDA) shares closed up more than 5% after Bank of America said Nvidia is in a winning position to lead the “AI arms race.” Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was also a source of optimism for tech companies, as the data analytics company’s share price rose by 21% after it reported its first quarterly earnings. Shares of some Asian tech companies came under pressure from Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa), which dumped most of its Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp (TSMC) shares and increased its stake in Apple Inc (AAPL).

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.11%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) increased by 0.07%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.70%, and Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed Tuesday up by 0.08%.

Eurozone GDP rose by +0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis. The European Commission’s winter economic forecast, released yesterday, said the EU economy is set to avoid a recession, but “headwinds persist.” In additional positive news, the inflation forecast has been revised downward. Overall inflation is projected to fall from 9.2% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2023 and to 2.8% in 2024 in the EU. In the euro area, it is projected to decline from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.6% in 2023 and to 2.5% in 2024.

The UK Consumer Price Index fell from 10.5% to 10.1% (forecast 10.3%) in annual terms. Core inflation fell even more sharply, from 6.3% to 5.8% (forecast 6.2%). Such data on the back of a strong labor market may provide the Bank of England with at least one more 0.25% rate hike at its next meeting.

Oil prices decreased by 1% on Tuesday as traders worried about supply growth as data from the American Petroleum Institute showed a large increase in crude inventories. Another inventory report from the US Department of Energy will be released today, which is considered more significant. Rising inventories, in most cases, are a factor in lower oil prices. But sometimes, it does not work due to a more complicated oil price formation mechanism.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.64%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.09%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) ended the day down by 0.24%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) gained 0.89%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) ended the day up by 0.18%.

The Japanese government on Tuesday introduced Kazuo Ueda to parliament as a candidate for the next governor of the Bank of Japan, suggesting the academic and former Bank of Japan policymaker will replace Haruhiko Kuroda. The Bank of Japan, the most dovish central bank among the G7 countries, is facing market pressure to adjust its policies. Ueda’s comments in parliament will be scrutinized for any signs of a shift away from the current adaptive monetary policy. Kuroda’s second five-year term ends April 8 after a decade marked by strong monetary easing, and his current deputies, Masayoshi Amamiya, and Masazumi Wakatabe will leave their posts on March 19.

Shares of Australia’s four biggest banks (Commonwealth Bank Of Australia, Westpac Banking Corp, National Australia Bank Ltd, and ANZ Group Holdings Ltd) fell Wednesday after Commonwealth Bank, the largest of them, noted a potential worsening of credit conditions due to pressure on consumers from high-interest rates and overheated inflation.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,136.13 −1.16 (−0.028%)

Dow Jones (US30)34,089.27 −156.66 (−0.46%)

DAX (DE40) 15,380.56 −16.78 (−0.11%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,953.85 +6.25 (+0.079%)

USD Index 103.25 −0.10 (−0.09%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 02:15 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Manufacturing Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Donations by top 50 US donors dropped sharply to $14 billion in 2022 – Bill Gates, Mike Bloomberg and Warren Buffett lead the list of biggest givers

By David Campbell, Binghamton University, State University of New York; Elizabeth J. Dale, Seattle University, and Michael Moody, Grand Valley State University 

The 50 Americans who gave or pledged the most to charity in 2022 committed to giving US$14.1 billion to foundations, universities, hospitals and more – a total that was 60% below an inflation-adjusted $35.6 billion in 2021, according to the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s latest annual tally of these donations.

The Conversation U.S. asked David Campbell, Elizabeth Dale and Michael Moody, three scholars of philanthropy, to assess the significance of these gifts and to consider what this data indicates about the state of charitable giving in the United States.

What trends stand out overall?

Elizabeth Dale: After two years of giving that was close to record levels, the nation’s biggest donors seem to have resumed giving at pre-pandemic levels, with support largely directed to the causes they have historically favored: higher education, hospitals and medical research. They also put a lot of money into foundations, for the most part those bearing the names of these extremely wealthy donors or their relatives.

I believe that the decline in giving likely had something to do with last year’s stock market volatility – major indices lost as much as 33% of their value in 2022 – and the onset of high inflation. Both financial markets and inflation can influence charitable giving.

David Campbell: Despite giving from these very rich Americans being so much lower than in 2021 and 2020, the total for 2022 was still higher than more than half of the years since 2000. Nonetheless, nearly half of the total came from two donors, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates and former New York City mayor and financial media entrepreneur Mike Bloomberg, both of whom have led this list three of the past four years. Some $8 billion – more than half of these gifts – went to foundations in 2022, with $5 billion injected into the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation alone.

This means that the benefit of these donations will not be experienced immediately but rather over many years. U.S. foundations are required to spend only 5% of their assets annually, and most foundations try to preserve their holdings so that they may continue operating well into the future.

Michael Moody: The gifts from Bill Gates and Warren Buffett both point to how the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has been evolving in the past couple years, following the founders’ divorce in 2021.

Bill Gates’ contribution to the foundation came from him alone, and Buffett’s big gifts last year went to foundations led by his relatives rather than to the Gates Foundation, an institution that he announced years ago would receive the bulk of his fortune. While Buffett has said he still fully supports the Gates foundation, he did step off its board in 2021. That board has since gained new members who aren’t related to Bill Gates or Melinda French Gates.

What surprises you about the biggest donors?

Campbell: One thing that stands out to me is not only that some donors appear on this list year after year but also that they have a clear vision for their philanthropy and consistently use it to focus on a few core passions: John and Laura Arnold on a specific set of public policy concerns, including reproductive rights and civil rights; Gates on global health; and Bloomberg on higher education access, public health and gun safety.

Dale: I’d like to point out that only 19 of this year’s top 50 donors are on the Forbes list of the 400 wealthiest Americans. It’s worth paying attention to who isn’t giving on a big scale, especially in an era of such extreme wealth inequality and an effective 8.2% tax rate on the wealthiest Americans. It can be easier to pay a lot of attention to the perennial donors on this list like Bill Gates, Bloomberg, the Arnolds, Sergey Brin and a few others who have consistently been among the country’s top charitable donors for years.

I also find it interesting that three big donors all re-upped their commitments to the Alzheimer’s Drug Discovery Foundation Diagnostics Accelerator. Leonard Lauder – an heir to the Estée Lauder Cos. cosmetics fortune – Amazon founder Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates each made $11.25 million gifts to this venture, which they helped launch in 2018 to research ways to make earlier diagnoses Alzheimer’s disease.

Moody: I find it noteworthy that none of the top 50 donors in 2022 was under 40 and that only five of them were under 50. That the top donors skew older should not be too surprising given that Baby Boomers have nine times as much wealth as millennials. But some members of Generation X and millennials are starting to enter the echelon of the world’s wealthiest, so I’d expected to see more of them crack this list.

What concerns do you have?

Moody: I think a lot of Americans would say that one of our biggest problems as a country right now is our divisiveness and our apparent inability to overcome it. Yet with the notable exception of Pierre and Pam Omidyar, who support efforts to ensure free and fair elections as well as what they term “constructive politics” through their Democracy Fund, few of the biggest donors are focused on overcoming this polarization.

Dale: I’m struck by how little money in 2022 was clearly identified as being directed to the environment and climate change, especially given the climate-related disasters of Hurricane Ian in Florida, heat waves in Europe and flooding in Pakistan and India.

While several of these top donors did announce that they had made gifts totaling $186.8 million to environmental-related causes, only $27.6 million was directly given to an environmental organization and $50 million to address climate change. Other large gifts went to the Schmidt Ocean Institute and the ocean program at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Campbell: I think it is important to note that giving by MacKenzie Scott is not included on this list because she did not respond to the Chronicle of Philanthropy’s survey. She has given at least $14 billion to some 1,600 nonprofits since 2019.

Scott’s approach to philanthropy stands out because of its unusual scale, as well as her focus on equity and marginalized groups and her no-strings-attached grants. Her gifts to organizations to use for their immediate needs provide a stark contrast to other top givers who place their donations in foundations, where much of the public benefit is deferred.

What do you expect to see in 2023 and beyond?

Campbell: I have more questions than answers.

How will the devastating earthquake in Turkey and Syria affect giving? Will the scale of the disaster, which had left 36,000 people dead by mid-February 2023, be a motivator, considering that many of the largest U.S. donors focus their giving on causes operating in the United States? Will declining inflation spur more giving by the wealthiest Americans next year and a return to the levels seen in recent years?

I imagine we will see Melinda French Gates on this list next year. Will her giving look more like Scott’s, making donations to organizations that address equity issues a priority? Or will it look more traditional and long-term, emphasize foundation giving and be shaped by the input of in-house experts?

Dale: While the composition of the data obscures much about the end recipients of this elite giving, I believe it’s clear that more philanthropy, in addition to large-scale public funding, is needed to address major diseases, climate change and social and racial inequality. I’d like to see more of these donors make efforts to work together and a speedier disbursement of grants from foundations.

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has provided funding for The Conversation U.S. and provides funding for The Conversation internationally. Arnold Ventures provides funding for The Conversation U.S.The Conversation

About the Authors:

David Campbell, Professor of Public Administration, Binghamton University, State University of New York; Elizabeth J. Dale, Associate Professor of Nonprofit Leadership, Seattle University, and Michael Moody, Chair for Family Philanthropy, Grand Valley State University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Market caution returns on hot US CPI data

By ForexTime

Asian shares flashed red on Wednesday along with US futures as investors evaluated sticky American inflation data and remarks from Fed officials. European futures are pointing to a negative open this morning amid the cautious sentiment and this could find its way back to Wall Street later today.

In the currency arena, dollar bulls were injected with some renewed confidence as expectations intensified over interest rates remaining higher for longer than initially anticipated. Gold struggled to keep above $1850 during early trade and could extend losses as expectations shift towards a more hawkish Fed in the near term. Given how the latest red-hot US inflation figures are likely to create some uncertainty over the US economy, caution may remain the name of the game.

Sticky inflation data rekindles rate fears

Buying sentiment towards the dollar slightly improved after the latest US inflation figures printed higher than expected.

The headline consumer price index number climbed 6.4% in January from a year earlier, one-tenth lower than the 6.5% print in December. Although this was higher than the forecast of 6.2%, it was still the lowest reading since October 2021.  The core reading, which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, cooled for the fourth consecutive month to 5.6%. This figure was above market expectations of 5.5% but still, the lowest witnessed since December 2021.

While inflation in the world’s largest economy continues to slow, it’s not falling as quickly as investors anticipated – ultimately rekindling Fed rate hike bets. Given how these latest inflation figures add to January’s blowout jobs report, the dollar could edge higher in the short term. However, the bigger picture has not changed with the Fed closer to a peak in rates in the coming few months.

It will be wise to keep a close eye on the US retail sales and industrial production figures released later today. There has been a lot of hype and excitement around the US CPI but the retail sales data may provide fresh insight into consumer behaviour and health of the economy. A strong set of economic data will most likely stimulate expectations around US rates being higher for longer.

On the technical front, the DXY could be gearing up for a breakout above 104.00. Such a move could open the doors towards 105.00. Alternatively, sustained weakness below 104.00 may open a path back toward 102.00.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

After swinging between losses and gains in the previous session, gold kicked off Wednesday on a negative note.

The precious metal is trading below $1850 thanks to the sticky US inflation print and conflicting views from Fed officials. Given how the dollar is likely to draw strength from expectations around the Fed staying hawkish for longer, this could translate into more pain for zero-yielding gold down the road. Buying sentiment towards the precious metal could also take another hit this afternoon if the US retail sales and industrial production data exceed market forecasts.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold is under pressure on the daily charts. A solid daily close under $1850 may open the door toward $1815 and $1800, respectively.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Murrey Math Lines 14.02.2023 (AUDUSD, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes have broken through the 200-day Moving Average and are now above it, which reveals possible development of an uptrend. The RSI has bounced off the support line. An upward breakaway of 7/8 (0.7019) should be expected, followed by growth of the resistance level of 8/8 (0.7080). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 5/8 (0.6897). In this case, the pair may drop to 3/8 (0.6774).

AUDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of further growth on H4.

AUDUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which reveals the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI is testing the resistance line. A test of 3/8 (0.6286) is expected, followed by falling to the support level of 2/8 (0.6225). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 5/8 (0.6408), which might lead to a trend reversal and growth to 6/8 (0.6469).

NZDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, an additional signal confirming the decline will be a breakaway of the lower border of VoltyChannel.

NZDUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 14.02.2023 (EURUSD, USDJPY, NZDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD has pushed off the support level. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 1.0755 is expected, followed by falling to 1.0505. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.0875, which will mean further growth to 1.0965.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is testing the Tenkan-Sen line. The instrument is going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 131.15 is expected, followed by growth to 135.05. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 130.25, which will mean further falling to 129.35.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is correcting by the Head and Shoulders pattern. The instrument is going below the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the lower border of the Cloud at 0.6365 is expected, followed by falling to 0.6175. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.6420, which will mean further growth to 0.6515. The scenario can be confirmed by a breakaway of the lower border of the Head and Shoulders pattern and securing under 0.6265.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
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US CPI: Investors look through near-term squalls, focus on earnings

By George Prior 

Month-on-month inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s responses won’t fixate investors, says the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group’s warning comes as a new report on U.S. inflation reveals the annual rate of price increases was 6.4% in January following a decline to 6.5% in December. More broadly, inflation has cooled from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022.

He says: “It’s slightly higher than most analysts had expected, but it’s nothing too dramatic. All other reports were in line with expectations.

“It should also be noted that different calculation metrics were used this month.

“There has been a shift as markets are now betting on a longer period of higher interest rates as they begin to take heed of the message from U.S. Federal Reserve officials that there’s still a way to cool inflation in the face of a robust labour market.

“The tight labour market is a headache for the Fed, as it contributes to strong wage growth. However, Fed Chair Powell made clear last week that embedded inflation, caused by wage growth, is not yet a problem.”

The deVere CEO continues: “Despite the higher-than-expected inflation print, it’s clear to investors that we’re far closer to the ‘home run’ now.

“I think investors will, sensibly, be prepared to look through any near-term squalls on inflation and interest rate news.

“Instead, rightly, they will be focused more on earnings. Fourth-quarter 2022 earnings have fallen from a year ago, now a decline in the first quarter of 2023 would push the S&P 500 into an earnings recession.”

This, says Nigel Green, will be more front and center in investors’ minds.

“They are less fixated on the month-on-month inflation reports and the Federal Reserve’s response.

“Inflation seems to have peaked and investors are looking to the future, not in the rear-view mirror.”

As we move past peak-inflation, it’s critical that investors ensure their portfolios are suitably diversified across asset classes, sectors, currencies and regions, so as to make the most of the considerable opportunities that will inevitably present themselves.

“As the economic cycle moves ahead, and economies readjust, there will be big winners and big losers – it’s about being invested in the right companies, those which can consistently maintain or steadily grow margin, as well as diversification across sectors, asset classes and regions.

“A good fund manager will be critical in identifying these winners and losers as the economic cycle moves on,” affirms the deVere CEO.

He concludes: “As we’re seeing, some companies are struggling to maintain margin and are failing to report as had been expected.

“This is now a bigger deal for investors looking to build wealth than individual inflation reports.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2023.02.14

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0679
  • Prev Close: 1.0724
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.42 %

New inflation data will be released in the US today. The Consumer Price Index is expected to fall from 6.5% to 6.3% year-over-year, while basic inflation (excluding food and energy prices) will also decrease from 5.7% to 5.4%. If the actual data matches, or at least is no worse, the dollar index will probably start to lose ground, as falling inflation would indicate that the US Fed is on the right track and the high probability of a “soft” economic landing. But if inflation turns out to be hotter, especially the core index, it will give confidence to the dollar on the back of the fact that the US Fed will not stop and continue to raise interest rates.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0651, 1.0597
  • Resistance levels: 1.0739, 1.0838, 1.0906, 1.0926, 1.0967, 1.1017, 1.1077

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. The price is forming a wide corridor, and volatility in anticipation of CPI data is reducing. The MACD indicator has become positive, but buying pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0651 or after the breakout of the 1.0739 resistance level, but with confirmation in the form of impulse movement. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0739, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative on the lower time frames.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the resistance level of 1.0926 and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2023.02.14:
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 21:05 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2062
  • Prev Close: 1.2139
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.64 %

Important labor market data will be released today in Great Britain. The unemployment rate is projected to be unchanged, with jobless claims up slightly. Such data is likely to cause a less aggressive reaction from the Bank of England (BoE) at the expense of easing inflationary pressure in the services sector. Traders need to understand that a strong labor market does not benefit the central bank in raising rates, as rising wages fuel inflationary indicators.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2078, 1.2073, 1.2000, 1.1930
  • Resistance levels: 1.2150, 1.2202, 1.2147, 1.2202, 1.2311, 1.2416

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bearish. At the moment, the price is trading above the moving averages, and there is a slight buying pressure inside the day. The MACD indicator has turned positive. Under such market conditions, buy trades are better to look for on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2078, but with confirmation in the form of initiative and short targets. Sell trades are best sought after a pullback from the resistance level of 1.2150 or 1.2203, but also better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2416 resistance level and fixes above it, the uptrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2023.02.14:
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 131.25
  • Prev Close: 132.40
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.87 %

The new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will be announced today, and Kazuo Ueda is expected to be endorsed by the government. His attitude to monetary policy is somewhat unclear. During his tenure as representative of the Bank of Japan board from 1998 to 2005, Ueda played a key role in introducing new monetary policy easing tools to combat the domestic banking crisis and ease deflation. Analysts believe that Kazuo Ueda is likely to be in no rush to revise the ultra-soft policy and instead let economic data determine the future outcome, especially inflation and wage data.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 131.45, 129.68, 129.98, 129.19, 129.04, 128.16
  • Resistance levels: 132.89, 133.23

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bullish. The price is forming a wide-volatile corridor. At the same time, at the level of 132.89, a double top has been formed. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is worth expecting the price to rise above 132.89 to test the liquidity above the level. Most likely, it will happen at the publication of today’s CPI. Buy trades are best to look for from the support level of 131.46, but only with confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be searched for from the resistance level of 132.89, but only after a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes below the support level of 128.16, the downtrend will be renewed with a high probability.

USD/JPY
News feed for 2023.02.14:
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3340
  • Prev Close: 1.3330
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.08 %

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so it is highly dependent on instruments such as the dollar index and oil. Concerns about another hot US inflation figure have led to speculation that the Federal Reserve may have to be more hawkish than previously thought. Any rally in the US currency would put pressure on commodities, led by oil. The dollar index will get fundamental support if today’s US inflation data is worse than forecast and vice versa.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3333, 1.3295, 1.3212
  • Resistance levels: 1.3416, 1.3496, 1.3520, 1.3554, 1.3595

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bullish. The price has corrected to the “discount” market area, where traders can look for good buying points. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and there are signs of divergence. Buy trades can be considered from the support of 1.3333, but with additional confirmation in the form of impulse initiative on the lower time frames. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance level of 1.3416 but on the condition of a reverse reaction.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down and consolidates below the support level of 1.3263, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.