InvestMacro

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators trimmed their bearish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -3,034 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday October 6th. This was a weekly gain of 2,521 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,555 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) gaining by 3,669 contracts (to a weekly total of 18,509 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a lesser advance of 1,148 contracts on the week (to a total of 21,543 contracts).

The US Dollar Index speculators decreased their bearish bets for a second straight week this week and by a total of +6,112 contracts over this two-week period. This improvement over the past two weeks brings the overall position to the least bearish level since June 9th when the net position was in bullish territory at +4,689 contracts. The dollar speculator standing has now continued to remain in bearish territory for a total of seventeen straight weeks.

Individual Currencies Data this week: Euro bets drop sharply

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw only one substantial change (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

Euro positions dropped sharply this week by over -13,000 contracts. The euro bets have fallen for two straight weeks and for three out of the previous four weeks as well. The euro bullish position has been historically strong in the past four-to-six months and rode a surge of bullish bets to a record high level of +211,752 contracts on August 25th. Since then, the euro speculator position has cooled off but remains extremely bullish at a net level over +174,000 contracts.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the US dollar index (2,521 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (1,447 contracts), Swiss franc (355 contracts), Canadian dollar (901 contracts), Australian dollar (1,910 contracts), New Zealand dollar (1,761 contracts) and the Mexican peso (8,706 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-13,808 weekly change in contracts) and the Japanese yen (-3,687 contracts).

Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 174,308 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -13,808 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 188,116 net contracts.

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -11,298 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly lift of 1,447 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,745 net contracts.

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of 21,102 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly reduction of -3,687 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,789 net contracts.

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,096 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 355 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,741 net contracts.

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators was a net position of -18,047 contracts this week. This was a rise of 901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,948 net contracts.

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures reached a net position of 10,847 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 1,910 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,937 net contracts.

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing reached a net position of 5,090 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly lift of 1,761 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,329 net contracts.

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators came in at a net position of 21,342 contracts this week. This was a weekly rise of 8,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 12,636 net contracts.

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators decreased their bearish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -5,555 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday September 29th. This was a weekly improvement by 3,591 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -9,146 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position (longs) growing by 2,908 contracts (to a weekly total of 14,840 contracts) compared to the gross bearish position (shorts) which saw a reduction by -683 contracts on the week (to a total of 20,395 contracts).

US Dollar Index speculators reduced their bearish bets this week following two straight weeks of rising bearish positions that had brought the overall standing to the lowest level in 147 weeks. The +3,591 net contracts this week marks the best one-week gain in 27 weeks, dating back to March 24th. The overall speculator standing remains in a bearish position for the 16th consecutive week but has now improved to the least bearish level of the past eleven weeks.

Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw two substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

The British pound sterling dropped sharply by over -15,000 contracts this week. This sharp decline pushed the overall net position back into bearish territory for the first time in the past seven weeks. The messy Brexit divorce from the EU is weighing on the pound and has pushed the GBPUSD currency pair back under the 1.30 exchange rate.

Mexican peso positions fell by over -14,000 contracts this week following four straight weeks of gains. The peso speculator position remains in bullish territory for the sixteenth straight week after a short spell in a bearish position in May and June. Overall, peso bets are in a small bullish level (+12,636 contracts) and down from stronger bullish levels in early 2020 that included an all-time record high of +170,366 contracts on January 28th.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week was just the US dollar index (3,591 weekly change in contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the euro (-2,706 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-15,709 contracts), Japanese yen (-4,792 contracts), Swiss franc (-3,175 contracts), Canadian dollar (-66 contracts), Australian dollar (-7,402 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-1,531 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-14,014 contracts).

Chart: Current Strength of Each Currency compared to their 3-Year Range

The above chart depicts each currency’s current speculator strength level compared to data of the past 3 years. A score of 0 percent would mean speculator bets are currently at the lowest level of the past three years. A 100 percent score would be at the highest level while a 50 percent score would mean speculator bets are right in the middle of the data (a neutral score). We use above 80 percent (extreme bullish) and below 20 percent (extreme bearish) as extreme score measurements.

Please see the data table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 188,116 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -2,706 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 190,822 net contracts.

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level was a net position of -12,745 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly decrease of -15,709 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,964 net contracts.

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators equaled a net position of 24,789 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly reduction of -4,792 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 29,581 net contracts.

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week reached a net position of 12,741 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,175 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 15,916 net contracts.

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators totaled a net position of -18,948 contracts this week. This was a decrease of -66 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,882 net contracts.

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures totaled a net position of 8,937 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,402 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 16,339 net contracts.

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing totaled a net position of 3,329 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly decline of -1,531 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,860 net contracts.

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators recorded a net position of 12,636 contracts this week. This was a weekly reduction of -14,014 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 26,650 net contracts.

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

December 22nd – By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

US Dollar Index Speculator Positions

Large currency speculators lowered their bullish net positions in the US Dollar Index futures markets this week while also adding to their British pound bearish positions, according to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday.

The non-commercial futures contracts of US Dollar Index futures, traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of 36,049 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday December 18th. This was a weekly decrease of -2,073 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 38,122 net contracts.

This week’s net position was the result of the gross bullish position declining by -3,362 contracts to a weekly total of 43,298 contracts compared to the gross bearish position which saw a decrease by just -1,289 contracts for the week to a total of 7,249 contracts.

The USD Index speculative position has now declined for five consecutive weeks and has dipped to the lowest bullish level since September 11th of this year.

Individual Currencies Data this week:

In the other major currency contracts data, we saw four substantial changes (+ or – 10,000 contracts) in the speculators category this week.

British pound sterling bets dropped sharply by over -18,000 contracts this week and have fallen for three straight weeks. The current standing is now at the most bearish level since September 25th when the net position totaled -67,078 contracts.

Mexican peso bets dropped by over -10,000 bets this week and for the second time in the past three weeks. The speculative position has now flipped over to a net bearish level for the first time since June 26th.

New Zealand dollar bets strongly jumped this week by over +18,000 contracts and have now gone back into an overall bullish position. This is the first time speculators have been bullish on the NZD since June 12th.

Australian dollar speculators continued to reduce their bearish bets this week and trimmed the position by over +10,000 contracts this week. Speculative bets have now improved seven straight weeks and by a total of +35,343 contracts. The Aussie spec level is at the least bearish position since June 12th of this year.

Overall, the major currencies that saw improving speculator positions this week were the euro (3,163 weekly change in contracts), Canadian dollar (4,212 contracts), Australian dollar (10,462 contracts) and the New Zealand dollar (18,652 contracts).

The currencies whose speculative bets declined this week were the US dollar index (-2,073 weekly change in contracts), British pound sterling (-18,304 contracts), Japanese yen (-5,165 contracts), Swiss franc (-4,659 contracts),  and the Mexican peso (-12,211 contracts).

See the table and individual currency charts below.

Table of Large Speculator Levels & Weekly Changes:

This latest COT data is through Tuesday and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

The Euro large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -53,124 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly change of 3,163 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,287 net contracts.

British Pound Sterling:

The large British pound sterling speculator level resulted in a net position of -60,723 contracts in the data reported this week. This was a weekly drop of -18,304 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -42,419 net contracts.

Japanese Yen:

Large Japanese yen speculators resulted in a net position of -102,771 contracts in this week’s data. This was a weekly reduction of -5,165 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -97,606 net contracts.

Swiss Franc:

The Swiss franc speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -22,926 contracts in the data through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -4,659 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,267 net contracts.

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian dollar speculators recorded a net position of -7,457 contracts this week. This was a gain of 4,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,669 net contracts.

Australian Dollar:

The large speculator positions in Australian dollar futures came in at a net position of -35,069 contracts this week in the data ending Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 10,462 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,531 net contracts.

New Zealand Dollar:

The New Zealand dollar speculative standing resulted in a net position of 3,411 contracts this week in the latest COT data. This was a weekly gain of 18,652 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,241 net contracts.

Mexican Peso:

Mexican peso speculators totaled a net position of -769 contracts this week. This was a weekly fall of -12,211 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,442 net contracts.

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).