InvestMacro

by JustForex

Stock markets continue to grow amid approval of the Covid-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford. This move will help the UK to increase vaccinations from Monday next week. Another positive news is the support for British Prime Minister Boris Johnson from the Conservative Party. On Tuesday, party officials said that the deal “upholds UK sovereignty” and requested the House of Commons to vote in favor of it.

Apparently, the year is not ending as badly as it could. The global stock index MSCI AC World showed an increase of 14% over the past month, and the overall growth after falling in March was almost 68%. Markets are now focused on economic recovery, and soft monetary policy is supporting the bulls.

Things may not be that simple in the foreign exchange market. The euro continues to fluctuate near annual highs. The sterling is in no rush to refresh the tops of the month following the EU-UK deal. The euro is also bouncing off its records. Traders continue to assess the consequences of the withdrawal, and not everything is cloudless here. European logistics companies are canceling freight contracts for fear of returning empty after January 1.

Against this backdrop, the British FTSE 100 slowed down its growth rates, and the German DAX opened trading with a decrease. But the credit market is still calm. Major 10-year bonds are in the green zone. Britain’s Gilts added 30 basis points to 0.241%. German Bonds increased by 22 basis points to -0.554%. American Treasuries remain stable at 0.950%.

Major stock indexes are trading in different directions. The index continues to decline.

S&P 500 (F) 3,733.38 +13.38 (+0.36%)

Dow Jones 30,335.67 -68.30 (-0.22%)

DAX 13,758.70 -2.68 (-0.02%)

FTSE 100 6,620.99 +18.34 (+0.28%)

Индекс USD 89.767 -0.151 (-0.17%)

• – Pending Home Sales Index (MoM) (Nov) at 18:00 (GMT+2);
• – US crude oil stocks at 18:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2214
• Prev Close: 1.2247
• % chg. over the last day: +0.27%

EUR/USD continues to rise and has already updated the highs of the year in the Asian session. However, there has been no rapid progress in the northern direction so far. German Bonds remained on a par while US Treasuries were growing. This is a headwind for the euro bulls.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2151, 1.2130
• Resistance levels: 1.2272

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is risk-averse buying on a decline. The pair’s withdrawing from the triangle has strengthened the upward signal, but it is necessary to check if the price will fix above 1.2272. In case the day closes below, there will be a “false break-through”, which indicates a southern signal. The indicators are fully tuned for an upward movement.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2220, it is possible that the price will move further to 1.2130, and a break-through of the last point may signal a complete reversal.

News feed for 2020.12.30:

• – Pending Home Sales Index (MoM) (Nov) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3447
• Prev Close: 1.3498
• % chg. over the last day: +0.38%

The pound has won back some of its losses on Monday. Now everything looks like a consolidation near the highs with no hints of selling. However, the fundamental background is starting to signal an impending bearish scenario. UK Gilts decreased by 100 basis points in two days. As a result, the yield spread between the UK and the US securities has narrowed significantly.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3287, 1.3187
• Resistance levels: 1.3623

The main scenario is cautious buying on a decline. Now the technical indicators are demonstrating an increase of bullish potential. The pair is trading above the moving averages. The ADX indicates a significant rise of upward pressure. But the rally from Monday’s lows looks like a pullback after the decrease. “The double top” pattern indicates the need for bulls to be vigilant.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes below 1.3498, the northern scenario is likely to reverse and the pair will head towards 1.3287.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 103.78
• Prev Close: 103.51
• % chg. over the last day: -0.26%

The stock market stepped back, and the US Treasuries lost 20 basis points, so the situation immediately affected the yen. Gold and franc rose in price, which indicates that investors are leaving for defensive assets. It looks like the dollar-yen has lost its last hope for growth this year.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 103.26, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 103.90, 104.15

The main scenario is selling on growth. On Tuesday, the pair closed trading below the moving averages. At the same time, the ADX reacted to the southern movement, which indicates the strengthening of the bearish onslaught. The MACD returned to the negative zone. The price has broken through the lower border of the local channel, which indicates that there are no bulls in the pair.

An alternative scenario assumes a break-through of 103.61 from the bottom up. In this case, the pair may reach the area of 103.90 – 103.98.

News feed for 2020.12.30:

• – Pending Home Sales Index (MoM) (Nov) at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2847
• Prev Close: 1.2815
• % chg. over the last day: -0.25%

Oil quotes show a slight increase again, which creates pressure on the pair. An additional bearish driver is the continued decline in the dollar index, which has no reasons for growth so far. Today, traders will be having an eye on the data on US oil inventories, which could cause fluctuations in the Canadian dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2789, 1.2689
• Resistance levels: 1.2954, 1.3079

The main scenario is risk-averse selling. The MACD has moved into the negative zone but is still close to zero values. The ADX still shows an increase in the potential of the southern trend. In this regard, the southern scenario remains relevant. The signal will strengthen with the break-through of 1.2789.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to return above 1.2838, the pair may resume the upward correction.

News feed for 2020.12.30:

• – US crude oil stocks at 18:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By Orbex

DXY Remains Pressured

The US index closed on a negative footing yesterday as it once again triggered the 90 handle.

Even though a US government shutdown has been avoided, after the US fiscal stimulus is formalized, investors aren’t exactly lining up to take on more risk.

As we move closer to the changing of the guard in the White House, Joe Biden said his team was facing roadblocks with the Department of Defense and the Office of Management and Budget.

Whereas Trump’s administration stated they have been fully transparent, will this be his last attempt to sow chaos in the final weeks of his administration?

Eurozone Boosted by Vaccine Rollout

The euro closed 0.21% higher on Monday as European countries started to vaccinate people against Covid-19.

Early predictions show the economy will grow at its fastest rate in 2021, should the vaccine rollout be successful.

However, the pandemic is likely to leave significant scars. Expectations are for unemployment in the 19-country bloc to rise above 10% for the first time in more than four years.

Brexit Vs Pandemic

The pound dropped by 0.72% yesterday as it crashed through the 1.35 handle.

Positive sentiment surrounding a Brexit deal was quickly put to bed as the UK continues to record higher infection rates.

NHS England said the number of people being treated for the virus in hospital is now higher than the previous peak in April.

The risk of the new variant is looking to overwhelm the economy, as further lockdowns are likely in Q1.

Indices Wrap Up Record Highs

The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all touched record highs yesterday on the back of a signed coronavirus bill that will send direct payments to Americans.

Optimism rested on the approval of the $900 billion fiscal rescue package that Congress recently agreed to, and President Trump signed.

The Santa Claus rally usually gives bulls a lift towards the end of the year. However, this recent news propelled stocks even higher than usual.

Will this continue into 2021?

Gold Retraces At $1900

Gold closed 0.47% lower on Monday after initially touching $1900.

The sell-off saw investors looking towards the greenback and a global record stock rally.

The yellow metal has failed to hold on to key levels recently, denting risk appetite for some traders.

As more vaccinations hit the headlines, will we see more resistance in the metal market?

Bulls Flirt With $49

WTI finished 0.25% higher yesterday having failed in an earlier attempt to push above $49.

Headlines have been mixed for the black gold, which has seen sentiment shift back and forth.

President Donald Trump’s signing the $900B Covid-19 aid package will give US demand a boost.

However, the Covid-19 situation is clearly getting worse on both sides of the Atlantic, which continues to weigh on prices.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after a divergence on MACD, EURUSD is stuck within the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2167 and 1.2262 respectively. The first descending impulse tried to reach 23.6% fibo at 1.2115 but failed. If the asset fails to break the high at 1.2273, it may start a new decline towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 1.2018 and 1.1937 respectively. However, if the price does break the high, the pair may continue growing to reach the long-term fractal high at 1.2555.

The H1 chart shows potential upside targets. The asset has already reached 76.0% fibo. If the price breaks the high at 1.2273, it may move upwards to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2327 and 1.2362 respectively. On the other hand, if EURUSD breaks the local low at 1.2130 again, the asset may continue the mid-term correction to the downside.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the pair is trying to start a new correction to the upside after a convergence on MACD. The correctional targets may be 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 104.95, 106.25, and 107.28 respectively. After breaking the low at 102.87, USDJPY may continue falling towards the fractal low at 101.18.

In the H1 chart, the pair is consolidating around 23.6% fibo; this movement may be considered as a correction. If the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may resume trading upwards to reach 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 103.94, 104.28, and 104.61 respectively.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After breaking 1.2230, EURUSD is expected to continue growing with the target at 1.2270. Today, the pair may reach 1.2260 and then start a new correction to return to 1.2230. After that, the instrument may resume growing towards the above-mentioned target.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has completed the correction at 1.3460; right now, it is growing to reach 1.3722. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1.3460.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB has finished the descending wave at 73.73; right now, it is consolidating above this level. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another correction towards 74.80; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 72.62.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating around 103.50; it has rebounded from the upside border at 103.88 and right now is falling to break 103.50. After that, the instrument may fall to break 103.30 and then continue trading downwards with the short-term target at 102.70.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

After forming the consolidation range above 0.8880 and breaking it to the downside, USDCHF is expected to fall towards 0.8860. Later, the market may return to 0.8880 to test it from below and then start another decline with the target at 0.8840.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After finishing the correction at 0.7580, AUDUSD is growing towards 0.7600. Possibly, the pair may break the latter level to the upside and continue trading upwards to reach 0.7673. Later, the market may correct with the target at 0.7560.

BRENT

Brent is still forming a consolidation range around 51.36. Possibly, the asset may expand the range down to 50.70 and then grow to reach 52.30. After that, the instrument may fall to break 51.36 and then continue the correction towards 50.10. Later, the market may resume trading upwards with the target at 53.50.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1880.00. Possibly, today the metal may fall to reach 1869.50. If later the price breaks this range to the downside, the market may resume falling towards 1842.40; if to the upside – start a new growth with the target at 1900.00.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

BTCUSD is still consolidating above 25650.00. Possibly, the asset may break the range to the downside and then resume trading downwards to reach 23230.00. Later, the market may form one more ascending structure with the target at 28500.00.

S&P 500

After breaking the consolidation range to the upside, the S&P index is still growing towards 3759.0. Later, the market may start a new correction to reach 3700.0 and then form one more ascending structure with the short-term target at 3800.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2184
• Prev Close: 1.2215
• % chg. over the last day: +0.25%

EUR/USD continued its growth on Monday, adding 0.25%, but it takes it slow to break through the maximum of this month at the level of 1.2272. Low liquidity reduces volatility shortly before the holidays. Traders refrain from opening new deals, which may even cause a correction.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2151, 1.2130
• Resistance levels: 1.2272

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is buying on a decline. The bullish signal strengthened after the break-through of the upper border of the triangle. Thus, the pair confirmed its bullish intentions. Other indicators also point to growth. The moving averages have rebuilt and demonstrated a north direction. The ADX indicates high trend potential.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2208, it is possible that the price will move further to 1.2130, and a break-through of the last point may signal a complete reversal.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3544
• Prev Close: 1.3457
• % chg. over the last day: -0,65%

It may seem paradoxical, but after the news about the readiness to reach a deal, the sterling decreased. It seems that investors fully appreciated the availability of an agreement between the two parties in advance and will now focus on economic problems. Britain will start the new year with problems in the economy, which may worsen after the official withdrawal from the European bloc.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3287, 1.3187
• Resistance levels: 1.3623

The main scenario is selling on growth. Technical specifications are now mixed. The upward momentum has slowed down. The pair is stuck between the two moving averages SMA 50 and SMA 100. The MACD moved into the negative zone, but the ADX still indicates the presence of bulls in the currency pair. The trend potential oscillator doesn’t react to a decline. The “double top” pattern is a strong sign of a possible departure of the currency pair for compensation.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes above 1.3523, the southern scenario is likely to reverse and the pair can reach 1.3623.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 103.66
• Prev Close: 103.77
• % chg. over the last day: +0.10%

The break-through of the maxima on the stock markets helped the bulls to overcome the first resistance at 103.73. But it hasn’t yet managed to fix. The currency pair continues to fluctuate around 103.50, showing no particular signs of movement in this or other direction. Technical indicators point to the unlikely development of both the northern and southern scenarios.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 103.26, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 103.90, 104.15

The main scenario is trading in a sideways range. Signs of a narrow rising channel are emerging but are not yet convincing. The ADX stopped responding to the movement of the pair, and the MACD returned to zero values. Most likely, the instrument will continue to show low volatility and remain within the range of 103.90 – 103.50.

An alternative scenario assumes a break-through of 103.26 and the development of a further fall. In case of breaking 103.73, further growth to 104.15 or higher is possible.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2841
• Prev Close: 1.2846
• % chg. over the last day: +0.04%

On Monday, the trading session brought the pair a symbolic 0.04% on a slight decline in oil prices. The market is awaiting the OPEC+ decision on oil production, so the Brent and WTI quotations slightly decreased.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2789, 1.2689
• Resistance levels: 1.2954, 1.3079

The main scenario is risk-averse selling. The daily candle has left shadows above and below, which provides equal signals to bulls and bears. The MACD is near zero. But the moving averages indicate a resumption of the southern scenario. The same is observed on the ADX oscillator – an increase in the potential of the southern trend. In this regard, there is a possibility of renewed bearish sentiment. The signal will strengthen with the break-through of 1.2789.

Alternative scenario: if the price manages to return above 1.2858, the pair may resume the upward correction.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

Optimism continues to reign on stock markets. The US stimulus package and the Brexit agreement pushed the MSCI global stock indicator closer to record maxima.

The successful conclusion of negotiations, which began in 2013 on an investment agreement between the EU and China, will be a blow to the former so-called “America First” strategy. The deal will give European investors access to the Chinese market in a variety of industries, from automobiles to biotechnology. Against this background, the dollar continues to decline, and the American Treasuries confidently hold around 0.950%.

The only weak link in the credit market is the British Gilts. There is some kind of tension and fear here. Since the negotiations no longer affect the market, investors are starting to assess the current economic situation and the consequences of the actual withdrawal. Due to the fact that the British economy has suffered significantly from long-running negotiations, and the coronavirus pandemic has increased the pressure on the economy, the beginning of the year for Foggy Albion can turn out to be very difficult.

Industrialists in the automotive industry face great difficulties. Of course, the sector escaped disaster, but there is even more damage that can be done after last week’s deal. The costs related to the need to switch suppliers and the burden of customs declarations, certificates and audits can still keep investing in this industry at a very low level.

Against this backdrop, the sterling feels uncertain, and the FTSE accelerated its growth in anticipation of a decline of the British currency.

Major stock indices are trading with the rise. The dollar index didn’t receive any drivers to growth.

S&P 500 (F) 3,745.62 +18.12 +0.49%

Dow Jones 30,403.97 +204.10 +0.68%

DAX 13,870.80 +80.51 +0.58%

FTSE 100 6,664.55 +162.44 +2.50%

USD Index 90.052 -0.223 -0.25%

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Lukman Otunuga, Research Analyst, ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com