InvestMacro

By Orbex

The USDCAD currency pair forms a primary wave Ⓩ which is part of a global triple zigzag.

The bearish wave Ⓩ takes the form of an intermediate (A)-(B)-(C) zigzag, with the final impulse wave (C) under development.

Minor corrective wave 4, which has taken the form of a skewed triangle, has ended.

In the short term, we expect USDCAD to devalue in wave 5 to the 1.245 area. At that level, it will be at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension of minor impulse 3.

An alternative scenario shows that the minor correction wave 4 is still under construction.

The fifth-minute wave of the bearish impulse 3, which took the form of an ending diagonal, has completed.

In the near future, we could see the completion of correction wave ⓑ, after which an increase in the impulse ⓒ to the 1.281 area is possible. At that level, minor wave 4 will be at 38.2% of impulse 3.

Then we expect a bearish impulse decline in wave 5, as shown in the chart.

By Orbex

Article By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after finishing the pullback, GBPUSD is still forming another rising impulse to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.3790 and 1.3980 respectively. However, a divergence on MACD implies a possible descending correction towards 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.3528, 1.3365, 1.3233, and 1.3100 respectively after the price reaches the area’s downside border.

In the H1 chart, after correcting by 23.6%, pair is trying to update its high again. If the price does break and fixes above it, the asset may continue growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.3798 and 1.3830 respectively. The support is the local low at 1.3609.

EURJPY, “Euro vs. Japanese Yen”

In the H4 chart, EURJPY has completed its correctional decline after another divergence on MACD; right now, it is moving upwards. The structure of the current movement may be considered as a correction after the previous descending wave and this implies a new decline within the correction. After completing the correction, the pair may resume growing to break the mid-term 61.8% fibo at 128.65 and then continue moving to reach the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 129.16 and 130.43 respectively.

As we can see In the H1 chart, the pair is moving upwards to return to the local resistance at 23.6% fibo. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD, which may hint at a new decline. The first descending wave has reached 50.0% fibo, while the next one may be heading towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 124.62 and 123.96 respectively. The resistance is the high at 127.49.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.2160; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1.2165 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.2105. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be the completion of a Head & Shoulders reversal pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.2190. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.2275. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the cloud’s downside border and fix below 1.2085.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is trading at 75.25; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 74.30 and then resume moving upwards to reach 76.75. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the upside border of a Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 73.45. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 72.65. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the resistance area and fix above 76.05: as we can see, the price is rebounding from this level for the second time.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1849.00; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1840.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1885.00. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1825.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1785.00. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the cloud’s upside border and fix above 1865.00.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2138
• Prev Close: 1.2158
• % chg. over the last day: +0.16%.

EUR/USD has developed a narrow short-term range. Traders are expecting new drivers for moving in one direction or another. Despite the apparent weakness of the euro against other currencies, it is unlikely to decline against the dollar. Huge amounts of money are pouring into the American economy, as the LIBOR rates show us. In light of all the negative fundamental data, the euro can’t overcome the support level.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2107, 1.2077, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2189, 1.2222, 1.2283

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is trading sideways between 1.2189 and 1.2107. All specifications are neutral. The moving averages show horizontal position, the ADX is near zero. The MACD is slightly positive, which gives expectations for a northward move. Though, it is difficult to expect the movement beyond the designated range before the FED press conference.

Alternative scenario: if the price can gain a foothold above the level of 1.2189, the pair may grow to 1.2222. A break-through of 1.2107 downwards could bring the pair to 1.2077 – 1.2059 level.

News feed for 2021.01.27:

• Durable Goods Orders in the United States (m/m) (Dec) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• FED Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
• Fed press-conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3672
• Prev Close: 1.3731
• % chg. over the last day: +0,43%

The British pound is retaining its leading position versus the dollar among the G10 currencies. Its price has returned to the annual highs, although the market did not receive additional drivers for growth. Gilts profitability remains below the range of the previous two weeks, which casts doubt on further advance north.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3744, 1.4386

The main scenario for GBP/USD is cautious buying. Tuesday’s daily candlestick showed a “bullish engulfing” pattern, which indicates strong upward momentum. The ADX indicates high growth potential. As a result, all technical indicators speak in favor of a bullish movement, except for one – another stop near the resistance at 1.3744. If the price fails to overcome and fix above this level, the price may move to a decline again.

Alternative scenario: if the pair consolidates below 1.3695, it is likely to return to 1.3622.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 103.73
• Prev Close: 103.60
• % chg. over the last day: -0,12%

The pair’s volatility continues to decline. Treasury yields are slightly lower than last week, and the stock market is showing minor fluctuations around the established highs. As a result, the amplitude of fluctuations in the dollar-yen has decreased, and the increase in volatility is not expected without significant drivers.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 103.32, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 103.94, 104.09, 104.40

The main scenario is trading within the range of 103.94 and 103.32. Specifications are completely neutral. Even the minimum priority of the direction is lost. Before the Fed press conference, the pair may continue to move in a very narrow range.

An alternative scenario involves price fixing above 103.94. In this case, the pair may be able to return to 104.40 or higher. A break-through of 103.32 will indicate a continued decline.

News feed for 2021.01.27:

• – Durable Goods Orders in the United States (m/m) (Dec) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – FED Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
• – Fed press-conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2734
• Prev Close: 1.2691
• % chg. over the last day: -0.34%

On Tuesday, the Canadian dollar showed strong movement, forming a bearish engulfing on the daily chart. But it is too early to talk about the development of the bearish trend. The pair is trading in its consolidation area and may stay there for a while. Oil prices remain in the same range, which fully satisfies the current price position of USD/CAD.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2686, 1.2624
• Resistance levels: 1.2797, 1.2834, 1.2875

The main scenario is trading sideways between 1.2797 and 1.2686. The ADX showed an increase in potential while declining on Tuesday, but it is lower than during the previous growth. Thus, the further downward direction remains in question. Price is stuck between moving averages, which is a sign of a short-term stop.

The alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2686, the pair may resume southward direction. A break-through of 1.2797 upwards will open the way to 1.2834 or even higher.

News feed for 2021.01.27:

• – Durable Goods Orders in the United States (m/m) (Dec) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US crude oil reserves at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
• – Fed press-conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By Orbex

Dollar Slides Ahead of FOMC

The dollar index closed 0.27% lower yesterday as we await the latest Fed meeting.

FOMC investors are anticipating a dovish tone from the Fed, as there is apprehension about a delay in rolling out President Biden’s proposal for an additional $1.9 trillion stimulus package.

In addition, Republicans seem to have made a U-turn on Trump’s impeachment bid, as 45 out of 50 Senate Republicans voted to consider stopping the trial before it even starts.

Euro Continues Choppy Start

The euro climbed 0.20% higher on Tuesday as it erased losses at the start of the trading week.

The ECB is reportedly going to investigate the impact of relative Fed vs ECB monetary policy stances on the exchange rate.

This comes after the French finance minister pushed the EU to overcome blockages to ensure faster disbursement of its €750bn recovery fund to member states.

The euro bloc first needs to detail how they plan to use the grants and loans by April. Then, once approved, the disbursements can begin.

Sterling Lifted Despite Economic Woes

The pound rose by 0.48% on Tuesday as it pushed through the 1.37 handle.

The speed of the vaccine rollouts was a contributing factor to the rise, as sentiment shifted towards sterling.

This comes despite the UK death toll reaching over 100,000, with Boris Johnson saying he takes full responsibility. Although he added that he truly did everything he could.

There is no end in sight for the lockdown measures imposed by the British PM, as restrictions look to stay in place until the summer, as the jobless rate hit the highest rate in 5 years.

Earnings Season Keeps on Giving

Indices finished in a buoyant mood on Tuesday as investors dug through a slew of high-profile corporate earnings reports. This came a day after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite scored another round of all-time highs.

Shares of Johnson & Johnson gained 2.7% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and revenue and delivering an upbeat 2021 outlook.

General Electric also shares ticked modestly higher, reporting higher-than-expected cash flows of $4.4 billion in Q4 after cutting back on its aviation division.

Gold Pokes the $1850 Mole

Gold fell by 0.25% yesterday as it seemed to have a difficult time making a decisive move in either direction.

Stimulus hopes and FOMC caution have kept the yellow metal underpinned for now.

Vaccination rollouts and positive sentiment to tackle the coronavirus will give gold a direction for the remainder of the week.

Oil Slides but Maintains Grasp

Oil closed 0.30% lower yesterday despite the weekly crude stock report from the API, showing a decrease in stockpiles.

The update joins the likely decrease in oil supply as Iraq is up for reducing its output while compensating for the breach of the OPEC quota.

We now await the EIA data for another possible eclipse of $53.

By Orbex

by JustForex

Consumer confidence in the US rose in January as Americans became more optimistic about the outlook for the economy and labor market amid expectations of a further bailout. The Conference Board sentiment index rose slightly to 89.3 from a revised one of 87.1 in December. The average forecast in a survey of economists assumed a value of 89.0.

Expectations rose to a three-month high of 92.5, while sentiment indicator fell to 84.4 for current conditions, the worst value since May. While the core consumer confidence indicator has risen slightly, it remains well below the level when the pandemic has started. But consumers foresee an improvement in conditions in the not-too-distant future.

The number of Americans who said it is difficult to find jobs at the moment has risen to its highest level since May, highlighting the volatility of the labor market. More than 2/3 of the respondents believe that their income will remain unchanged in the next six months. The remaining 1/3 were evenly divided regarding the question of whether their wages will rise or fall.

The market actually ignored the data from the Conference Board. The dollar index remained in its weekly range. The stock market continues to consolidate near the set record values. Treasury yield is stable at 1.040%. Investors are awaiting the results of the Fed meeting today, which will be published at the end of the American trading session.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,838,38 -4,12 (-0.11%)

Dow Jones 30,937,04 -22,96 (-0.07%)

DAX 13,829,90 -41,09 (-0.30%)

FTSE 100 6,624,43 -29,58 (-0.44%)

USD Index 90,188 +0,040 (+0.04%)

• – Australia CPI (q/q) (4 q.) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
• – Durable Goods Orders in the United States (m/m) (Dec) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
• – US crude oil reserves at 17:30 (GMT+2);
• – Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
• – Fed press-conference at 21:30 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs. US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the correction within the ascending tendency continues. Right now, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Engulfing, close to the resistance level, EURUSD may reverse in the form of another pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be at 1.2020. After that, the pair may rebound from the support level and resume trading upwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may start a new growth to reach 1.2180 without testing 1.2020.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs. Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after rebounding from the channel’s upside border and forming a Shooting Star pattern, the pair has reversed. The downside target is still the support area at 102.85. After completing another correction, USDJPY may resume trading downwards. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may continue its growth to return to 104.00 before resuming its decline.

EURGBP, “Euro vs. Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support level, EURGBP is reversing and may start another pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be the resistance area at 0.8935. However, judging by previous movements, the pair may yet continue its decline to reach 0.8785 without testing the resistance area.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

After failing to fix above the upside border of the consolidation range at 1.2170 and then breaking the downside one at 1.2150, EURUSD has reached 1.2117; right now, it is still consolidating around 1.2150. Possibly, the pair may expand the range down to 1.2108 and then form one more ascending structure to return to 1.2170.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD is still consolidating around 1.3680; right now, it is correcting to expand this range down to 1.3636. After that, the instrument may start another growth with the target at 1.3760.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still correcting towards 75.90. Later, the market may fall to break 74.58 and then continue trading downwards with the target at 73.30.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still consolidating above 103.66. Possibly, today the pair may expand the range up to 103.98 and then start a new decline with the target at 103.22.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still correcting towards 0.8894. After that, the instrument may form a new descending structure to reach 0.8833 and then resume trading upwards with the target at 0.8900.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is still falling towards 0.7670. Later, the market may start another growth to break 0.7736 and then continue trading within the uptrend with the target at 0.7790.

BRENT

Brent is still consolidating above 55.35. Today, the asset may break the range to the downside and complete the correctional wave at 54.10. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to break 55.50 and then continue trading upwards with the target at 56.60.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

Gold is still consolidating around 1854.30. Possibly, the metal may expand the range down to 1833.50 and then grow towards 1854.40. Later, the market may form a new descending structure to break 1830.00 and then continue falling with the target at 1800.00.

BTCUSD, “Bitcoin vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 34600.00, BTCUSD is falling towards 31000.00. After that, the instrument may form one more ascending structure to reach 36000.00 and then resume trading downwards with the target at 30000.00.

S&P 500

After completing the descending wave at 3800.0 along with the correction towards 3859.0, the S&P index is consolidating around 3836.2. If later the price breaks this range to the upside, the market may start another growth to expand the range up to 3875.5; if to the downside – resume trading downwards with the target at 3790.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2170
• Prev Close: 1.2137
• % chg. over the last day: -0.27%

EUR/USD dropped in price by the end of Monday. The business climate in Germany, which decelerated amid new restrictions, was one of the reasons for the decline. German Bonds yield decreased by 40 basis points to -0.550%, following the Treasury. It should be noted that the last-mentioned lost more, which raises doubts about the further southern movement of the pair.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2077, 1.2059
• Resistance levels: 1.2222, 1.2283

The main scenario for trading EUR/USD is selling. The movement to the north stopped and the price was able to fix below the moving averages. The MACD moved into the negative zone. The ADX shows the growth of potential on the decline, which indicates a likely acceleration of the movement to the south.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix above the level of 1.2156, the pair may move to an increase to 1.2222.

There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.3677
• Prev Close: 1.3671
• % chg. over the last day: -0.04%

On Monday, the sterling began to show signs of a correction again. Stopping near annual highs, the price quickly declined, leaving a long shadow at the top of the daily chart. The fundamental background remains negative. The National Statistical Office released data on the rise of unemployment to 5.0% in November. With the consideration of the tightening of quarantine in January, the numbers are expected to continue to rise.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.3622, 1.3517
• Resistance levels: 1.3716, 1.3744

The main scenario in GBP/USD is selling. Long shadow at the top on the daily chart and continued decline in the Asian session could trigger a wave of cuts of the long positions. At the moment, the important level for the sterling is 1.3622, a break-through of which could send the pair to 1.3517 or below. The ADX grows and if it fixes below the specified price, the movement in the south direction may exceed 100 points before the first rollback.

Alternative scenario: if the pair fixes above 1.3683, the pair is likely to remain in the same range.

News feed for 2021.01.26:

• – Average UK salary including bonuses (Nov) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Jobless Claims Change (Dec) at 09:00 (GMT+2);.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 103.75
• Prev Close: 103.74
• % chg. over the last day: -0.01%

USD/JPY price practically didn’t change on Monday. The intraday growth was completely erased, and a long shadow at the top formed on the daily chart. Treasury yields fell sharply, which could put pressure on the stock market and, accordingly, on the pair for the short time. On the other hand, bulls may be supported by the growth of the dollar index. The fundamental background remains neutral.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 103.32, 102.89
• Resistance levels: 104.09, 104.40

The main scenario is trading in a range between 104.09 and 103.32. Specifications are completely neutral. The North direction has only minimal priority, as the price is trying to fix above the moving averages, and the SMA 50 is directed up. Oscillators show zero values.

The alternative scenario assumes the price-fixing above 104.09. In this case, the pair may be able to return to 104.40 or higher. A break-through of 103.32 will indicate a continued decline.

News feed for 2021.01.26:

• – United States CB Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

• Prev Open: 1.2710
• Prev Close: 1.2735
• % chg. over the last day: +0.20%

On Monday, the Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar and continues to fall amid a new wave of tightening quarantine in Canada. Everyone who has arrived in the country must have a confirmed negative coronavirus test and follow the 14-day quarantine rule.Shares of the country’s airlines fell sharply because of this, and the Canadian dollar became the leader among the G10 currencies, falling against the dollar.

Trading recommendations

• Support levels: 1.2686, 1.2624
• Resistance levels: 1.2797, 1.2834, 1.2875

The main scenario is to purchase. The first and second growth waves are accompanied by a strong rise in the ADX, which indicates the likelihood of further rapid movement to the north. 1.2834 is an important level for the pair, consolidation above which cancels the medium-term southern movement and will signal the beginning of a deep correction.

Alternative scenario: if the price can fix below 1.2724, the pair may resume its southward direction.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

by JustForex

With the extension of state aid, the UK labor market showed more resilience than expected. Although the negative tendency prevails, it is not as severe as experts had predicted. The Office for National Statistics claims that the unemployment rate rose by 5% in the country during this period, the highest level since 2016. The economists predicted its growth at a level of 5.1%. Job losses comprised 88,000, the lowest mark since July. The total number of people who have lost their jobs since the start of the crisis is 828,000.

There are fewer catalysts for further stock market growth. German IFO data showed a lack of optimism regarding the economic recovery in the medium term. As Germany extends COVID-19 restrictions at least till mid-February, fears of economic contraction in the first quarter are growing.

The financial assistance package implementation may take more time than many investors would want. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says that it’s unlikely that new stimulus measures on Joe Biden’s bill will take place until mid-March. In light of the news, contracts on the Nasdaq 100 declined. Treasury bond prices rose sharply overnight, dropping the yields. US Treasuries have lost about 60 basis points, and now the yield is hovering around 1.040%.

The reports on the rate of vaccination in Europe serve as an additional negative factor. The drugmaker Merck discounted the development of a vaccine due to insufficient test data. After that, the World Health Organization warned that the current level of vaccination would not be sufficient to stop the spread of the virus in the foreseeable future.

In the light of this new information, the stock market is losing its position while the dollar is growing.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 3,841.88 -6.62 (-0.17%)

Dow Jones 30,960.00 -36.98 (-0.12%)

DAX 13,821.50 +177.55 (+1.30%)

FTSE 100 6,681.75 +42.90 (+0.65%)

USD Index 90.427 +0.054 (+0.06%)

• – The UK Average Earnings Index including bonuses (Nov) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – UK Jobless Claims Change (Dec) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
• – United States CB Consumer Confidence Index (Jan) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.