Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 272

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 01.06.2021 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.2227; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.2195 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.2355. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.2155. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.2065.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1915.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 1900.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1970.00. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1865.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1825.00.

GOLD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7739; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7750 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7625. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7805. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7905.

AUDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 01.06.2021 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the uptrend continues. After testing the support area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including Doji and Engulfing. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and start a new growth towards the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 1.2295. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1.2180 first and then resume growing.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support area. At the moment, the asset is reversing and may soon resume its growth. In this case, the upside target is the resistance level at 110.35. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may start a new pullback towards 109.15 before resuming its ascending tendency.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Inverted Hammer, close to the support area, EURGBP may reverse and fall to reach the resistance level. In this case, the upside target may be at 0.8630. Later, the market may rebound from this level and resume falling. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may fall to reach 0.8570 without reversing and correcting.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.01

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2197
  • Prev Close: 1.2223
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.21%

The euro ended the month on a positive note. The US Federal Reserve is not planning to change its monetary policy until the end of the year, so the European currency still has enough time to continue its growth. A lot of economic statistics from Europe will be released today.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2205, 1.2168, 1.2138, 1.2115, 1.2074, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
  • Resistance levels: 1.2243, 1.2311

The trend remains bullish. The price is trading above the moving average again. Yesterday, the price managed to fix above the resistance level of 1.2205, despite the bank holiday in the US. But there is a slight divergence on the MACD indicator, so traders should expect a small pullback. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2168 support level and fixes below, the general uptrend is likely to be broken.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.06.01:
  • – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – EU Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – EU Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.4175
  • Prev Close: 1.4205
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.21%

The British pound broke through a three-month high in the Asian session today and moved higher. London Interbank Offered Rate LIBOR is at a historic low, which plays in favor of further strengthening of the British currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.4207, 1.4110, 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
  • Resistance levels: 1.4338

For the GBP/USD currency pair, the trend remains bullish. The price is above the moving average, the MACD indicator has returned to the positive zone. Traders are better to look for buy trades from the nearest support levels. A breakout of the 1.4107 resistance level opened the way to 1.4338.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.06.01:
  • – UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.76
  • Prev Close: 109.57
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.17%

Yesterday, the USD/JPY currency pair broke through the local uptrend line and lowered to the moving average. The correction was deeper, but this is normal for reversal movements.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.28, 109.00, 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77, 107.47
  • Resistance levels: 109.64, 109.95, 110.51

At the moment, the mid-term trend is bullish. The price is above the moving average and the priority change level of 109.00. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from the support levels, relying on the continuation of the price growth.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.00, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2063
  • Prev Close: 1.2057
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.05%

The USD/CAD currency pair decreased from the narrow flat and is moving towards the lower boundary of the 1.2032-1.2137 range. The quarterly Canadian GDP report is expected today, so volatility may increase.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2032, 1.1944
  • Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

The local uptrend line was broken. With the price trading below the moving average and the priority change level, the mid-term trend remains bearish. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for sell trades from the nearest resistance levels. But it should not be missed that the price is inside a wide corridor.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2021.06.01:
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Australia’s central bank did not change its monetary policy and left the interest rate unchanged at 0.1%

by JustForex

The US stock futures did not change much after the bank holiday on Monday. Despite the fact that the US inflation data exceeded forecasts last week, analysts expect further growth of stock indices. The statistics of the ADP non-farm payrolls may have great influence at the end of the week. Negative data may lead to the revision of the monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

European stock indices declined slightly at the close of the trading day on Monday. The reason for the decrease was a strengthening of inflation in Germany. However, May closed on a positive note, and it is the 4th consecutive month in a plus. Such dynamics is explained by growing expectations of economic recovery in the Eurozone after the pandemic. Today, there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics from the leading European countries.

Today, there will be an OPEC+ meeting. The experts predict that the OPEC+ will not yet adjust its plans to gradually increase production, which plays in favor of further growth in oil prices. However, the prospect of Iranian oil coming on the market slightly restrains the market rise. Although many analysts are confident that it will not significantly affect the dynamics of demand.

Gold jumped to five-month highs. As long as the Federal Reserve maintains its current monetary policy and the bond yields remain unchanged, precious metals will continue to rise.

Asian stock indices showed mixed dynamics on Monday. Equity indices in Taiwan and South Korea rose slightly, while Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong indices declined. Chinese manufacturing capacity has been growing rapidly again. It is very likely that China will be the first country to emerge from the COVID-19 crisis into a new cycle of economic growth.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,204.11 +3.23 (+0.08%)

Dow Jones 34,529.45 +64.81 (+0.19%)

DAX 15,421.13 -98.85 (-0.64%)

FTSE 100 7,022.61 +2.94 (+0.04%)

USD Index 89.85 -0.18 (-0.20%)

Important events:
  • – Australia RBA Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – EU Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – EU Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3);
  • – OPEC+ Meetings, all day (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Data in the driving seat

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

Subdued trading yesterday should give way to something more exciting today as UK and US traders are back at their desk eagerly hunting for more opportunities in a very busy week for economic data releases and potential risk events.

The dollar sold off yesterday and is moving lower again this morning as US equity futures are in the green, while Asian stocks are generally better bid.

Asian manufacturing figures out earlier today largely decelerated but remain above the key 50 threshold. The China Caixin PMI increased slightly to 52.0 in May, but firms continue to struggle with increasing raw material costs with the input costs index in China reaching the highest level since 2016.

 

Euro inflation rising

The eurozone CPI figures have just been released, with the May flash estimate registering a slightly better-than-expected 2% year-on-year growth for the first time since November 2018. Much of the increase is still driven by energy base effects, though core inflation came in at 0.9% year-on-year, right in line with market expectations. While the European Central Bank has oft repeated that it’s still premature to consider easing up its support measures, that stance may have to be massaged should consumer prices continue hitting or even exceeding the central bank’s medium-term target.

With next week’s ECB meeting looming, EURUSD has struggled to firm above 1.22 convincingly, with two attempts last week failing to hold. However, Friday’s price action was more constructive with lower prices being snapped up by buyers and printing a bullish hammer candlestick. The ISM manufacturing report out of the US is also released later, which is set to rise a bit from an already high level.

 

RBA opts not to rock the boat

Meanwhile overnight the RBA did very little and pointed to their July meeting as the next point where they reassess their quantitative easing (QE) and yield curve control (YCC) stimulus programmes. They did use slightly more positive labour market language by saying that progress in reducing unemployment has been faster than expected. On the flip side, they mentioned the ongoing uncertainty of further virus outbreaks though the hope here is that vaccinations will overcome this concern in time.

AUDUSD initially popped higher above 0.7760 but has since given back these gains.

 

Oil breaking higher

The US Memorial holiday traditionally starts the summer driving season stateside, which obviously has big implications for demand. But all eyes are on the OPEC+ meeting today with the possibility of hiking oil output again as the global recovery is widely expected to gather more pace in the coming months and stockpiles to be drawn down.

Any signs that the group hold output steady for now would likely provide more support to oil and oil-sensitive currencies like the CAD.

The year-to-date March high for Brent at $71.03 is firmly in view and then the spike high in April 2019 at $74.70, if bulls can hold prices up here and we get helpful news from the cartel.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 31.05.2021 (GOLD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking 50.0% fibo, the uptrend is approaching 61.8% fibo at 1922.50. At the same time, there is a divergence on MACD, which may hint at a possible descending correction. After finishing it, XAUUSD may start another wave to the upside to reach 76.0% fibo at 1979.00. The key support remains the low at 1676.78.

GOLD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the H1 chart, after breaking the consolidation range and the previous high, the asset reached the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1904.35 and 1913.10 respectively. However, this movement was followed by a divergence on MACD and a new decline towards 23.6% fibo. At the moment, the price is growing to reach the high at 1912.73, a rebound from which may lead to another correctional; decline towards 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1873.00, 1860.77, and 1848.38 respectively.

GOLD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after falling and reaching 76.0% fibo, USDCHF has rebounded from it to start a new correctional uptrend. The possible upside targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 0.9058, 0.9139, 0.9202, and 0.9267 respectively. If the asset breaks the support at 0.8930, the instrument may continue falling towards the fractal low at 0.8758.

USDCHF_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows that a new rising wave after a convergence on MACD, which is heading towards 23.6% fibo at 0.9058.

USDCHF_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 31.05.2021 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, EURUSD is trading above the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to break 8/8 and continue growing to reach the resistance at +1/8. Still, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 7/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue falling towards 5/8.

EURUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth.

EURUSD_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, GBPUSD is trading the 200-day Moving Average, thus indicating an ascending tendency. In this case, the asset is expected to test +1/8, break it, and then continue growing towards the resistance at +2/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks 8/8 to the downside. After that, the instrument may continue trading downwards to reach the support at 7/8.

GBPUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue the ascending tendency.

GBPUSD_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.05.31

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2190
  • Prev Close: 1.2191
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.01%

On Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair temporarily fell below the priority change level but failed to hold there. A strong reaction followed from the support level of 1.2138, and the price returned back to the moving average on the impulsive move.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2168, 1.2138, 1.2115, 1.2074, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
  • Resistance levels: 1.2205, 1.2243, 1.2311

The trend remains bullish, as the price has failed to consolidate below 1.2168 and returned back to the wide range of 1.2168-1.2243, forming a false breakdown. Now the price is accumulating near the moving average again. Under such market conditions, it is better for traders to look for buy trades from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2168 support level and fixes below, the general uptrend is likely to be broken.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.4201
  • Prev Close: 1.4185
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The British pound is still trading within a wide range of 1.4110-1.4207. Now the price is holding near the 3-month high and is pushing up to the upper boundary of the range. All this increases the probability of a possible breakout.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.4110, 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
  • Resistance levels: 1.4207, 1.4338

For the GBP/USD currency pair, the trend remains bullish. The price is above the moving average, the MACD indicator is inactive for now. On Friday, the price corrected a little bit to the moving average line, but the buyers quickly bought the pound back. Traders are better to look for buy trades on intraday timeframes. A breakout of the 1.4107 resistance level will open the way to 1.4338.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.75
  • Prev Close: 109.83
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.07%

As expected, the USD/JPY currency pair corrected to the support level of 109.64. Despite the weakness of the dollar index, the price of USD/JPY is rising, indicating very low fundamental support for the Japanese currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.64, 109.28, 109.00, 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77, 107.47
  • Resistance levels: 109.95, 110.51

At the moment, the mid-term trend has changed to bullish. The price is above the moving average and is supported by the local uptrend line. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from the support levels, relying on the continuation of price growth.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.00, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2063
  • Prev Close: 1.2073
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.08%

The USD/CAD currency pair formed a narrow flat again within a wider range of 1.2032-1.2137. A breakout from this range will activate an alternative scenario and break the medium-term downward dynamics.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2032, 1.1944
  • Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

At the moment, the price is trading right in the middle of the wide corridor, which makes it difficult to find good entry points. The local trend line does not allow the sellers to lower the price. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for trades on intraday timeframes only. But it is worth opening a sell position only after a breakdown of the local trend line.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

The key US inflation indicator (PCE) showed stronger-than-expected price increases

by JustForex

On Friday, the major US indices closed with a slight increase. The S&P 500 index increased by 0.08%, the Nasdaq added 0.09%, and the Dow Jones Industrials jumped by 0.19%. Inflationary pressures continue to be a major theme of economists in the US. The key inflation indicator (PCE) showed that prices are rising faster than expected. The fundamental picture for the dollar index remains weak. However, investors have renewed appetite for meme stocks. GameStop Corp (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC) are back in the growth leaders.

In the US and the UK, it is a bank holiday today, so traders should not expect much activity in the financial markets.

Oil prices reached a 2-year all-time high on Friday but corrected slightly by the end of the trading session. At Monday’s opening, the price of “black gold” rose slightly again. A big OPEC+ meeting is expected this week on Tuesday. With fuel demand rising ahead of summer, oil prices are likely to continue to rise.

Gold is back above $1,900 per ounce. With prices in the US rising for almost all commodity groups, this rise in inflation will be good for gold and other precious metals. For example, hedge fund analysts are already predicting silver will rise to $50 this year.

Asian stock indices showed mixed dynamics on Friday. Asia-Pacific’s broadest stock index outside Japan, the MSCI, added 0.4% and increased by 2.2% last week. Japan’s Nikkei decreased by 1.1% on Friday, while Australia’s ASX200 made a new all-time high. Chinese blue chips dropped 0.4% as recent macrostatistic data showed a slight slowdown in the manufacturing sector. However, the Chinese yuan continued its rally to three-year highs.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,204.11 +3.23 (+0.08%)

Dow Jones 34,529.45 +64.81 (+0.19%)

DAX 15,519.98 +113.25 (+0.74%)

FTSE 100 7,022.61 +2.94 (+0.04%)

USD Index 90.06 +0.09 (+0.09%)

Important events:
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Sun’s out, risk events everywhere

By Han Tan, Market Analyst, ForexTime

It’s a quiet, range bound and directionless day in the markets with the UK and US on holiday. The dollar is flat having given up all its bumper US inflation (core PCE) gains late Friday.

Many economists believe that neither the CPI or PCE numbers have peaked this year and yet bond yields, an excellent indicator ahead of such news, are still very subdued (and actually fell on Friday).

Have we seen the temper tantrum already since US yields have advanced from 0.5% last August to a peak of 1.77% in late March?

While we covered in brief the defining economic data of the week, NFP, in our morning report, there are numerous other events that could move markets and currencies, some of them pointers along the way towards Friday’s release. The employment index of the ISM report out Tuesday and the ADP data the following day, as well as the weekly initial jobless claims may help inform on the US monthly job figures.

Wednesday’s ISM will also be closely watched to see if the manufacturing recovery is staying strong. Slowing growth in new orders and output dampened the previous month after the index raced to a 37-year high in March with a reading of 64.7. Fed Chair Powell speaks on Friday at a climate change conference along with the ECB’s Lagarde, and this week will be the last chance for several Fed officials to talk on policy before the blackout period starts on June 5.

RBA to follow the RBNZ?

‘No’ is most certainly the answer with weak inflation numbers and a slowdown in total employment combining to keep policy measures unchanged. In fact, the RBA did signal in their most recent minutes that they would make a decision on the next stage of their QE and bond yield control programme (YCC) at their July meeting. As economies open up round the world, so the RBA will be aware that the domestic recovery should improve, even as Melbourne has been forced into its fourth lockdown since the pandemic began.

AUD/USD has tracked sideways around 0.77 for some months now, sitting on the 50-day moving average and buffeted by competing forces on its economy.

Any hawkish tilt by the RBA, in step with the Bank of Canada and RBNZ, would see the bulls take charge and push the pair to the top of the range near this month’s high at 0.7891. If the meeting is simply a holding event, traders will wait for the US jobs data to see if the pair can find some direction.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com