Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 267

Key events this week: Fed to frustrate Dollar bulls?

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

Amid the obsession surrounding the Fed’s timeline for tapering, the mid-week FOMC meeting takes centerstage this week, sandwiched by several other potential market-moving events:

Monday, June 14

Eurozone, Japan industrial production
PM Johnson announcement: UK to end lockdown on June 21?

Tuesday, June 15

BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speech
UK unemployment rate
Eurozone trade
US industrial production, PPI, retail sales

Wednesday, June 16

China industrial production, retail sales
UK inflation, PPI
FOMC decision

Thursday, June 17

Eurozone CPI
US initial jobless claims

Friday, June 18

BOJ decision
Germany PPI
UK retail sales

Of course, as has been the case for much of 2021 so far, market participants would like to know when will the Fed begin tapering its bond purchases? That’s the most pressing question that Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have to field after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

Though the central bank is likely to keep preaching the message of patience, the slightest hint that policymakers are getting closer to pulling back its pandemic support measures could lift the greenback.

Note the recent range-bound performance of the FXTM US dollar index, which is an equally-weighted index comprising the following currency pairs:

The FXTM US dollar index has refused to take things lying down, having displayed its relative resilience. The greenback has been kept sideways by some push and pull factors of late, including a second consecutive monthly disappointment in the May US nonfarm payrolls, and the highest year-on-year growth for the headline consumer price index in 13 years

This past Friday, the buck also saw broad-based gains versus its G10 counterparts, boosted by a better-than-expected reading on US consumer sentiment in early June, which prompted a slight uptick in US Treasury yields.

All this shows that the dollar remains sensitive to markets’ shifting expectations surrounding the economic data that could guide the Fed’s hand before tapering its support measures for global financial markets. And with more key US data due this week, including industrial production, producer prices, retail sales, and of course, the weekly jobless claims, the dollar is expected to keep gyrating to these economic prints, as per markets’ interpretation about how it could influence the central bank’s policy bias.

Ultimately, it could require an overt shift in tone out of the FOMC to move the dollar out its sideways range that it has adhered to since early May.

UK reopening timeline to impact Pound

While awaiting the dollar’s mid-week catalyst, Pound traders could be in for some action later today. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is scheduled to announce whether the UK’s lockdown measures will end on 21 June, although doubts about this timeline has increased given the spike in Covid-19 cases of late, particularly those of the delta variant.

Overall, GBPUSD has been trading sideways in recent weeks too. The currency pair, also known as “cable”, has been supported by enough optimism surrounding the UK economic reopening, coupled with a national vaccination rate that’s envied by many other countries. Amid such a backdrop, there are even whispers that the Bank of England could turn hawkish sooner than expected.

For today, GBPUSD could be put on a path towards a new year-to-date high if the UK government does stick to the June 21 reopening timeline. If not, Sterling bears may use the disappointment to unwind some of the Pound’s gains of late, even as GBP strengthens against most Asian currencies as well as its G10 peers, except for New Zealand dollar, at the time of writing.

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

COT Forex Charts: US Dollar, Euro, Yen, Pound, Bitcoin, Swiss Franc, Brazil Real

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday June 08 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,212 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 2,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 28.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	64.3	10.8	15.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	60.8	22.7	7.2
– Net Position:	1,751	-5,864	4,113
– Gross Longs:	31,891	5,373	7,690
– Gross Shorts:	30,140	11,237	3,577
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	28.8	64.8	72.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.7	-0.6	17.6

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week was a net position of 107,213 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,109 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 109,322 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 24.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.1 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	31.2	51.5	15.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.8	76.1	5.2
– Net Position:	107,213	-182,479	75,266
– Gross Longs:	232,103	382,766	113,822
– Gross Shorts:	124,890	565,245	38,556
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	3.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.9	24.2	99.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.1	-13.2	29.0

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week was a net position of 27,714 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,589 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,125 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.1 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.5	39.6	22.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	18.4	65.4	12.5
– Net Position:	27,714	-44,343	16,629
– Gross Longs:	59,238	67,888	38,028
– Gross Shorts:	31,524	112,231	21,399
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	94.0	3.5	90.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-1.1	1.8	-3.1

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week was a net position of -37,314 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 9,801 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -47,115 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	16.9	67.4	13.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	40.0	33.8	23.6
– Net Position:	-37,314	54,268	-16,954
– Gross Longs:	27,248	108,879	21,222
– Gross Shorts:	64,562	54,611	38,176
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.4 to 1	2.0 to 1	0.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	47.0	60.3	23.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	6.8	-3.6	-6.8

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,076 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 752 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 324 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	25.7	39.8	34.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	44.2	32.2
– Net Position:	1,076	-2,171	1,095
– Gross Longs:	12,649	19,564	16,922
– Gross Shorts:	11,573	21,735	15,827
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.0	26.6	67.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.7	-13.0	29.3

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 45,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -3,491 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 48,772 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.8	37.1	22.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	16.2	72.1	8.4
– Net Position:	45,281	-77,183	31,902
– Gross Longs:	80,989	81,541	50,357
– Gross Shorts:	35,708	158,724	18,455
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.3 to 1	0.5 to 1	2.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	92.7	3.3	94.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	24.6	-19.1	1.4

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of -9,437 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -7,512 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,925 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.4	40.6	20.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.7	43.5	11.6
– Net Position:	-9,437	-4,303	13,740
– Gross Longs:	48,150	60,293	31,047
– Gross Shorts:	57,587	64,596	17,307
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	71.2	17.6	87.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.0	9.1	-6.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week was a net position of 5,506 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -421 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 5,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.8 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	47.9	31.5	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	51.3	6.5
– Net Position:	5,506	-9,060	3,554
– Gross Longs:	21,962	14,424	6,521
– Gross Shorts:	16,456	23,484	2,967
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.3 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	80.5	16.4	92.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-2.5	-0.4	18.9

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week was a net position of -6,561 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -3,646 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.5 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	39.9	49.7	5.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	44.0	48.8	2.8
– Net Position:	-6,561	1,483	5,078
– Gross Longs:	63,814	79,394	9,489
– Gross Shorts:	70,375	77,911	4,411
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	2.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	11.5	86.9	64.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.8	3.1	5.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week was a net position of 20,048 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 15,960 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,088 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.9 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	69.9	20.1	9.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	22.7	71.8	5.0
– Net Position:	20,048	-21,967	1,919
– Gross Longs:	29,705	8,561	4,035
– Gross Shorts:	9,657	30,528	2,116
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	95.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	65.0	-66.0	14.8

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week was a net position of 1,740 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,846 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 4,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 92.9 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	27.2	62.7	7.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.1	70.4	3.7
– Net Position:	1,740	-3,245	1,505
– Gross Longs:	11,480	26,447	3,053
– Gross Shorts:	9,740	29,692	1,548
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.2 to 1	0.9 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	17.5	78.1	92.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.0	7.9	39.9

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week was a net position of -1,181 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,442 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 70.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.1 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	63.5	3.1	25.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	79.1	1.7	10.9
– Net Position:	-1,181	103	1,078
– Gross Longs:	4,804	235	1,903
– Gross Shorts:	5,985	132	825
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.8 to 1	2.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	70.7	43.2	25.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	20.5	-17.1	-19.0

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

11 Jun

Week In Review: Red Hot CPI, Treasury Yields Fall, Gold Slips

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

Monday kicked off on a mixed note as investors braced for a week filled with key economic releases, the European Central Bank meeting and highly anticipated US inflation report.

The dollar found itself under renewed pressure on Monday afternoon as investors mulled over last Friday’s payroll report. Although the headline employment numbers disappointed, other figures from the monthly release illustrated a more complicated picture of labour market tightness.

On Tuesday, it became increasingly clear that markets were awaiting the next catalyst. The dollar experienced a minor rebound from the 90.00 support level while gold flirted around the $1900 psychological level.

In the United Kingdom, rising Covid-19 cases raised doubts over the planned easing of restrictions on June 21. Speculation started to grow over the date being pushed back by two weeks.

The GBPUSD was stuck within a 100-pip range with support at 1.42 and resistance at 1.41. We will keep a close eye on this pair next week as a breakout could be on the horizon.

Our trade of the week was the EURUSD which remained rangebound as markets awaited the ECB meeting and US inflation report. Given how the ECB was widely expected to leave interest rates and stimulus unchanged, we highlighted how the Euro was more likely to be influenced by the US CPI report. Looking at the technical picture, the EURUSD is under pressure with prices trading around the 1.2100 support level as of writing.

Mid-week, stock markets remained near record highs as the Fed’s patient message soothed fears over the proverbial stimulus punch bowl being taken away sooner than expected. In another reminder of rising price pressures, China’s producer prices increased at their fastest pace in 13 years.

It was all about the ECB meeting and US inflation numbers on Thursday.

As widely expected, the ECB kept its interest rates and stimulus program unchanged despite rising inflation across the bloc. All in all, the central bank expressed optimism over the Eurozone economy and saw broadly balanced risk and stable financial conditions. Despite the optimism expressed, the ECB maintained a safe distance from the ‘T’ word.

The major highlight this week was the red hot US inflation report.

In May, the annual inflation rate for the United States rose at its fastest rate since 2008. Consumer prices jumped 5% year-on-year, up from 4.2% while core inflation rose 3.8% annually. Despite this super-hot release, Treasury yields tumbled, dragging the Dollar lower while US stocks rallied to fresh record highs.

Digging deeper into the report, CPI was boosted by hefty contributions in used car prices and airline ticket prices which analysts are seeing as short-term in nature. In other words, the spike in inflation was fuelled by “transitory” factors – something the Fed has repeatedly highlighted.

On Friday, Dollar bulls made a return thanks to upbeat consumer sentiment figures from the United States. The University of Michigan’s preliminary read for June improved more than expected, rising to 86.4 from 82.9 in May and higher than the 83.0 forecast. The Dollar Index is trading above 90.45 as of writing and could target 91.00 this month if a weekly close above this level is achieved.

In the commodities arena, gold failed to conquer the psychological level $1900 level this week while oil prices edged up to their highest in over two years.

Focusing on the technical picture, gold bulls have the potential to strike back if $1855 proves to be reliable support. However, a breakdown below this point could encourage a decline towards $1842 and possibly lower this month.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

The Week Ahead – Inflation From Supply Shortages Could Well Be Transitory

By Orbex

SPX 500 rises as inflation seems transitory

The S&P 500 broke to a new high as investors make sense of hotter-than-expected inflation.

A closer look at consumer prices reveals that the surge comes mainly from commodities and travel. This reopening effect is due to supply shortages. Price pressure could ease once companies’ output catches up with demand.

Markets also find reassurance from a volatile job market, a reminder that the real economy does not go into a V-shaped recovery but the long way round.

The breakout above 4240 could extend the rally to 4400. In case of a pullback, the area between the rising trendline and 4060 may offer support.

EURUSD remains on recovery trajectory

The euro holds at a 3-1/2-month high as the latest ECB meeting came in line with the market’s expectations.

The central bank gave no hint at reducing its massive stimulus package but stressed that inflation could remain below the 2% target in the foreseeable future. Consumer price indices would only be meaningful when compared like for like, by excluding noises from the start of the crisis last year.

As a result, post-summer data would be more suitable as a policy lever.

In the meantime, the pair continues to recover along the 20-day moving average. 1.2350 may see selling interest while 1.9870 is the immediate support.

USDCHF drops as markets play cautiously

The Swiss franc recouped most losses from earlier this year as risk appetite took a hit across markets.

The franc had been sold off on an improved economic outlook notably with the reopening of its European neighbors.

However, rising Covid cases and new restrictions in Asia mean the world is not out of the woods yet. The SNB is caught by rising demand for its safe-haven currency. Along with low inflation and growth at home policymakers have all the incentive to weaken the franc.

The pair is sliding to the key support at 0.8870. A rebound will need to close above 0.9090 to be meaningful.

USDCAD finds respite from patient BoC

The Canadian dollar stays muted after the BoC’s mild statement in their latest policy meeting.

The central bank has put itself in the US Fed’s shoes by saying that the pace of the QE will depend on the strength and durability of the recovery. A mixed bag of labor data lately suggests the path to a normalized economy could be choppier than what the bulls may expect.

Inflation-wise, high reading may suffer from base-year effects due to lockdowns last year, thus mitigating its significance. The pair is hovering above the psychological level of 1.2000. A fall could trigger a new round of sell-off. 1.2350 is the closest resistance.

By Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Fakes Rebound

By Orbex

USDCHF fails to bounce back

The US dollar surged after May’s core CPI rose by 3.8% yoy.

The pair remained under pressure after it broke below the lower band of the consolidation range at 0.8930. An oversold RSI has led to a brief whipsaw, which has turned out to be more of an opportunity to sell into strength.

Unless the greenback can lift the offers around the psychological level of 0.9000, the price could see another round of sell-off. February’s low at 0.8870 would be the next target should the pair dip below 0.8920.

EURJPY capped by key resistance

The euro weakened after the ECB maintained its accommodative monetary stance.

The pair has so far kept its bullish bias following a rally above April 2018’s high at 133.48. The price action has bounced off 132.90, the base of a previous rally which also coincides with the 20-day moving average on the daily chart.

133.80 is a major resistance, as its breach could clear the path for an extended rally above 134.

However, a drop below the aforementioned congestion area may prolong the sideways actions towards 132.50.

GER 30 seeks support on key daily level

The DAX consolidates gains as investors weigh high valuation against the pace of recovery.

On the daily chart, a bullish MA cross is a sign of acceleration in the rally after a six-week-long consolidation.

The index is currently looking for support from the 20-day moving average (15475). Bullish sentiment remains strong as long as buyers hold above this key level. Failing that, 15350 would be the next line of defense.

On the upside, a recovery to 15720 would bring in momentum players for a runaway rally.

By Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 11.06.2021 (AUDUSD, USDJPY, AUDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7760; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.7725 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7845. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the support level. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.7690. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.7595. To confirm further growth, the asset must break the descending channel’s upside border and fix above 0.7785.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 109.37; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 109.55 and then resume moving downwards to reach 108.40. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the resistance level. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 110.95. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 110.80.

AUDCAD, “Australian Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

AUDCAD is trading at 0.9377; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.9345 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.9490. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9280. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9195.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 11.06.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, a convergence on MACD made the pair the correctional downtrend at 61.8% fibo and start a quick rising impulse. In the nearest future, the asset may form a slight pullback and then resume growing to break the high at 0.7891 and then reach the fractal at 0.8007. Still, an alternative scenario implies a further downtrend towards 76.0% fibo and the key support at 0.7618 and 0.7532 respectively but it is highly unlikely.

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows the potential upside targets. By now, AUDUSD has already broken 38.2% fibo and is currently testing 50.0% fibo at 0.7768. Later, the market may continue growing towards 61.8% and 76.0% fibo at 0.7797 and 0.7832 respectively, as well as the high at 0.7891. The local support is the high at 0.7645.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

In the H4 chart, the situation remains stable. The pair is consolidating between the low and 23.6% fibo at 1.2007 and 1.2160 respectively. The asset may break this range both downwards and upwards but the second option is more probable. The next upside targets may be 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 1.2254, 1.2331, and 1.2407 respectively.

The H1 chart shows a correctional decline after the rising impulse and a possible breakout of the consolidation range to the downside. The correctional decline has tested 61.8% fibo at 1.2055 twice. On the other hand, a breakout of the low at 1.2007 may lead to a further downtrend towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.1959 and 1.1929 respectively. The resistance is the local high at 1.2133.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.06.11

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2179
Prev Close: 1.2175
% chg. over the last day: -0.03%

Thursday was volatile for the EUR/USD currency pair, but the price remained at the same level at the end of the day. As expected, the ECB did not change its monetary policy and left the interest rate unchanged. Considering the fact that the Fed is not likely to cut its stimulus measures, it is a positive factor for the euro.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2168, 1.2134, 1.2112, 1.2074, 1.2026, 1.2002, 1.1957
Resistance levels: 1.2212, 1.2243, 1.2311

The price is slowly pushing up to the priority change level of 1.2112, which may be broken soon as the uptrend is likely to resume. However, until that happens, traders can look for both sell trades from the nearest resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels. It is better to look for long positions on the intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2212 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to resume.

News feed for 2021.06.11:

– US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.4111
Prev Close: 1.4174
% chg. over the last day: +0.44%

The GBP/USD currency pair increased by 0.44% on Thursday. Yesterday, during the inflation news release, the price tested the priority change level of 1.4075, but the buyers managed to defend this level with a sharp rebound reaction. Buyers’ pressure is much stronger now. As a lot of UK statistics are expected today, volatility will remain high.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.4110, 1.4075, 1.3996, 1.3913,1.3835, 1.3801, 1.3756, 1.3690
Resistance levels: 1.4191, 1.4212, 1.4338

At the moment, the price is trading above the moving average. The MACD indicator went into the positive area. The GBP/USD currency pair trend remains bullish, as the price is above the priority change level. The selling pressure has been exhausted. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for buy trades from the support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.4075 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be canceled.

News feed for 2021.06.11:

– UK Gross Domestic Product (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 109.59
Prev Close: 109.31
% chg. over the last day: -0.25%

On Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair remained in the 109.18-109.63 trading range. The currency pair is in a contradictory situation right now, as both the dollar index and the Japanese yen are showing weakness. When both currencies show weakness, the price of the currency pair is usually trading in a corridor.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 109.63, 109.35, 109.18, 108.66, 108.44, 108.19, 107.77
Resistance levels: 109.83, 110.09 110.51, 110.73

Technically, the mid-term trend is bullish as the price is above the priority change level of 109.18. The price is trading near the moving average while the MACD indicator is inactive. Under such market conditions, traders can look for both buy trades from the nearest support levels and sell trades from the resistance levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 109.18, the general downtrend is likely to resume.

News feed for 2021.06.11:

– Japan BSI Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2110
Prev Close: 1.2096
% chg. over the last day: -0.11%

The USD/CAD currency pair is still trading within the 1.2032-1.2137 range. The inflation news has increased the volatility, which led to a slight strengthening of the Canadian dollar. But with the price trading in the middle of the range and near the moving average level, the situation makes it difficult to find good entry points.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2069, 1.2032, 1.1944
Resistance levels: 1.2137, 1.2251, 1.2321, 1.2388, 1.2414, 1.2519

Technically, the trend remains bearish. But the buyer’s pressure is slightly higher than the pressure of sellers. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the nearest resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels, but only on intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2137 resistance level and fixes above, a local corrective uptrend is likely to form.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

The inflation data reduced investors’ concerns. The Federal Reserve is likely to leave monetary policy unchanged

by JustForex

The inflation growth in the United States up to 5% in annual terms was insufficient to change the monetary policy by the Fed. Monthly dynamics showed a slowdown in inflation growth. The number of new jobless claims also reported its lowest level in the last 15 months. Considering this statistics, the US stock indices rose to new highs. The S&P 500 Index increased by 0.47% to a new all-time high. The Dow Jones Index added 0.06% and the Nasdaq Composite Index jumped by 0.78%. Companies in the healthcare sector were the leaders.

The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged. Considering the increasing vaccination rate in Europe, and against the background of the lifting of restrictions after the pandemic, the economic climate in the Eurozone will be improving, which plays in favor of strengthening the euro, the British pound and the Swiss franc. However, the European stock indices closed with multidirectional results on Thursday.

Gold and silver futures increased sharply on inflation news. Treasury yields fell to a three-month low, so with the weakness of the dollar index, precious metals remain in an uptrend. Mining stock companies are at good buying points now.

The price of WTI crude oil fell sharply below $70 at the opening of the US trading session, but it recovered by the end of the trading day. In China, the US and Europe, an increase in the demand for fuel ahead of the summer season is expected, so a significant drop in oil prices is unlikely to be expected. The bullish trend in natural gas is maintained.

The broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan, the MSCI, increased by 0.18% at the opening trading in Asia. But Japan’s Nikkei lost its previous position and fell by 0.11%. The Japanese economy is having hard times, which also affects the national currency. Chinese index CSI300 also declined on Thursday amid falling shares of companies producing essential commodities.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,239.18 +19.63 (+0.47%)

Dow Jones 34,466.24 +19.10 (+0.06%)

DAX 15,571.22 -9.92 (-0.06%)

FTSE 100 7,088.18 +7.17 (+0.10%)

USD Index 90.07 -0.06 (-0.06%)

Important events:

– New Zealand Business Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan BSI Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– UK Gross Domestic Product (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Governor Andrew Bailey Speaks at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

11 Jun

The morning after the day before…

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

After blockbuster US inflation numbers and the ECB avoiding taper talk, stock markets hit all-time highs in the US with large cap growth stocks outperforming all other sectors as bond yields touched three-month lows. Declining rates are a boon to interest rate sensitive stocks like tech and investors have been moving out of value and into the growth sector for the whole of this week with the Nasdaq gaining 0.8% yesterday while the Dow edged higher by 0.1%.

Yesterday’s consensus-busting CPI data was boosted by hefty contributions in used car prices and airline ticket prices which analysts are seeing as short-term in nature – “transitory” in the Fed’s words! Bond markets are certainly taking this view as the market has concluded that enough inflation risk is now discounted. This should see more pressure on the dollar which continues to trade around 90 after a few narrow range days this week.

EUR/USD nears 1.22

The ECB left policy measures unchanged but their upbeat tone saw them move the balance of risks to broadly balanced. Growth and inflation forecasts were revised higher but the latter was downplayed with the 2023 projection of 1.4% pointing to a very gradual taper of bond buying. President Lagarde swatted away any taper talk during the press conference and the ECB will remain flexible on the amounts of bond buying and continue with very accommodative monetary conditions through the summer.

EUR/USD was fairly unmoved by the meeting and bulls need to claim 1.22 before they can revisit the may highs. Strong support below lies at 1.21 with the 50-day SMA just below.

FTSE eyeing new highs

The UK economy missed forecasts for its GDP figures this morning printing 2.3% m/m, up from 2.1% but one tenth below analyst estimates. The FTSE has found support above 7,000 and looks be making new highs for the month this morning. The index is trading above the upward sloping 50-day and 100-day SMA in a bullish trend. 7,100 is a round number target before the May high at 7164.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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