Forex and Currency News

Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 254

US dollar regains ground against the main currencies

As we commented in our previous analysis of the Forex market, during the first quarter of the year the trend in the dollar index was positive, scoring 3.718%. However, during the months of April and May this suffered a setback with losses that reached 2.11% and 1.40% respectively against the main currencies, reaching quarterly lows at $89.50.

Since that time, the price began to recover and after registering a rise of 2.71% during the month of June, the dollar index finally managed to close the second quarter of the year with a slight decrease of 0.863%, which allowed it to finally close the first half with an appreciation of 2.822%.

Attention in the foreign exchange market remains focused on possible measures and changes that the Federal Reserve may undertake in the coming months to deal with rising inflation in the United States brought about by the economic recovery and consumption growth thanks to the advanced vaccination process, since a change in policies and an eventual rise in interest rates could boost the dollar.

For its part, the European Central Bank has recently announced a historic change in relation to its inflation target, since as Christine Lagarde commented at its last meeting, the ECB is embarking on the project of incorporating the cost of owned housing into the price index, in turn making it more flexible, and removing the commitment to keep inflation around 2% in order to avoid taking decisions too early during the economic recovery.

EURUSD Analysis

If during the past year 2020 the trend was clearly bullish in the EURUSD, in the first half this has lost 2.93% against the dollar due to the recovery that the greenback is experiencing, as we have mentioned previously.

Technically speaking, if we look at the daily chart we can see that EURUSD slowed at the 1.2240 level forming a double a double (green) ceiling which has caused the price to lose several support levels including the uptrend line and its 200-session moving average.

This bearish move has also caused a cross of bearish moving averages of its short and medium term averages (white and orange) and its short and long term averages (white and red) thus confirming the change from uptrend to bearish.

Currently, the price is making a possible pullback to its important resistance support zone in the green and red band, so we must be aware of the evolution of the price in this area, since a failure in the attempt to recover this level could generate a further fall to the annual lows around the 1.1713 level.

Source: Daily EURUSD chart of Admiral Markets’ MetaTrader 5 platform from March 17, 2020 to July 12, 2021. Held on July 12 at 11:30 a.m. CEST. Please note that past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Evolution of the last 5 years:

2020 = +8,93%
2019 = -2.21%
2018 = -4.47%
2017 = +14.09%
2016 = -3.21%

GBPUSD analysis

In the case of GBPUSD, we can see that during the first half of the year it has risen by 1.12%, thus continuing the upward trend since it marked lows on March 20, 2020 around the level of 1.14100 to almost reach the level of 1.42400, which has led it to exceed its long-term downtrend line (in the red). Despite this, we can see that during the month of June the pound sterling lost 2.69% against the dollar due to the strength of the greenback.

As we can see in the weekly chart, after marking highs last February, the price as in the EURUSD has made a double-deck formation in the annual highs that has led it to lose the important level of 1.40 in search of its average of 18 weeks where it has found an important point of support.

The definitive loss of this support level could cause a further fall in search of its next support level in the red band that previously acted as resistance at the level close to $1.35. Conversely, if the price manages to maintain and bounce off its short-term average, the price could find new momentum in search of its annual highs.

Source: Weekly chart of GBPUSD on Admiral Markets’ MetaTrader 5 platform from November 23, 2014 to July 12, 2021. Held on July 12 at 12:05 pm CEST. Please note that past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Evolution of the last 5 years:

2020 = +3.10%
2019 = +3.95%
2018 = -5.54%
2017 = +9.43%
2016 = -16.26%

USDJPY Analysis

Finally, if we look at USDJPY, we can see how the Japanese Yen was one of the big losers with the rises of the dollar, since during the first half of the year this has lost 7.61% against the dollar thanks to the strong rises in February and March, where it went from trading at levels close to 102,700 to trading at levels close to 111,000.

After setting annual highs in early April, USDJPY experienced a pullback in search of its 18-session average and after repeatedly leaning on this price until it reached this resistance level again in the green band.

Technically speaking, we will have to be very attentive to the evolution of the quote in the coming weeks, since if the price manages to overcome this level of resistance, we could find a bullish rally in search of the upper band of the side channel in green. On the contrary, in its stochastic indicator we can observe a cumulative overbought and a bearish divergence so we cannot rule out some kind of correction in the price.

Source: Weekly chart of USDJPY on Admiral Markets’ MetaTrader 5 platform from November 23, 2014 to July 12, 2021. Held on July 12 at 12:30 p.m. CEST. Please note that past returns do not guarantee future returns.

Evolution of the last 5 years:

2020 = -4.95%
2019 = -0.88%
2018 = -2.76%
2017 = -3.59%
2016 = -2.85%

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By Admiral Markets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

10 Jul

COT Currency Futures Charts: US Dollar, Swiss Franc, Euro, Brazil Real, Japanese Yen, Pound, Peso, Bitcoin

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 6th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,569 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 8,017 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -448 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 53.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	73.8	2.0	20.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.4	37.0	5.7
– Net Position:	7,569	-13,020	5,451
– Gross Longs:	27,442	735	7,557
– Gross Shorts:	19,873	13,755	2,106
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.1 to 1	3.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	38.8	53.0	89.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-12.7	36.7

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 77,190 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,956 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 87,146 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.4 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.5	55.2	13.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.4	73.0	6.8
– Net Position:	77,190	-124,158	46,968
– Gross Longs:	212,998	386,189	94,301
– Gross Shorts:	135,808	510,347	47,333
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	58.7	40.6	57.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-8.2	15.7	-42.6

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,903 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 4,180 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 17,723 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 63.0 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	32.0	49.4	16.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.8	63.7	14.7
– Net Position:	21,903	-25,435	3,532
– Gross Longs:	57,232	88,387	29,841
– Gross Shorts:	35,329	113,822	26,309
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.6 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.8	14.6	63.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.3	14.6	-33.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -69,136 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 759 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,895 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	15.4	75.8	8.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	49.1	31.0	19.3
– Net Position:	-69,136	92,131	-22,995
– Gross Longs:	31,625	155,707	16,701
– Gross Shorts:	100,761	63,576	39,696
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	27.8	78.2	12.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.5	14.6	-22.5

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 10,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -903 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,065 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 37.3 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	43.0	35.2	21.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	20.3	36.2	43.2
– Net Position:	10,162	-446	-9,716
– Gross Longs:	19,230	15,763	9,595
– Gross Shorts:	9,068	16,209	19,311
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.1 to 1	1.0 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.1	28.4	37.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	17.7	-4.4	-20.4

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 41,178 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -4,623 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,801 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.2 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	34.6	42.6	21.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	14.2	75.6	9.3
– Net Position:	41,178	-66,667	25,489
– Gross Longs:	69,923	86,106	44,346
– Gross Shorts:	28,745	152,773	18,857
– Long to Short Ratio:	2.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	2.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	89.3	9.9	85.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-3.0	5.6	-7.9

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -24,870 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -7,070 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.6 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	36.2	46.8	15.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	53.1	28.8	16.9
– Net Position:	-24,870	26,485	-1,615
– Gross Longs:	53,352	68,894	23,265
– Gross Shorts:	78,222	42,409	24,880
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	1.6 to 1	0.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	54.0	43.4	53.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-26.8	33.0	-33.4

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 1,761 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,363 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,124 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 67.9 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	46.5	39.6	11.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	42.3	46.9	8.0
– Net Position:	1,761	-3,063	1,302
– Gross Longs:	19,412	16,518	4,622
– Gross Shorts:	17,651	19,581	3,320
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.1 to 1	0.8 to 1	1.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	74.2	25.7	67.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.4	13.3	-20.1

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -22,333 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,879 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,454 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	48.0	45.8	5.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	63.2	34.4	1.8
– Net Position:	-22,333	16,747	5,586
– Gross Longs:	70,788	67,470	8,220
– Gross Shorts:	93,121	50,723	2,634
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	1.3 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	3.6	94.4	66.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-6.9	6.4	3.6

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 21,305 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 819 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 20,486 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	72.3	19.3	8.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	23.5	73.0	3.3
– Net Position:	21,305	-23,470	2,165
– Gross Longs:	31,593	8,438	3,628
– Gross Shorts:	10,288	31,908	1,463
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.1 to 1	0.3 to 1	2.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	100.0	0.0	93.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	21.6	-22.3	8.0

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 8,897 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,441 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,338 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	40.3	53.7	6.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	21.0	75.8	3.2
– Net Position:	8,897	-10,154	1,257
– Gross Longs:	18,556	24,696	2,742
– Gross Shorts:	9,659	34,850	1,485
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.9 to 1	0.7 to 1	1.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	34.4	62.3	80.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	8.3	-8.3	2.4

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,271 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 74 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,345 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 68.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.7 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.3	8.2	23.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	76.8	1.6	11.4
– Net Position:	-1,271	450	821
– Gross Longs:	4,018	562	1,603
– Gross Shorts:	5,289	112	782
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	5.0 to 1	2.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	68.2	82.3	16.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	11.3	3.9	-14.4

Article By CountingPips.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

09 Jul

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 09.07.2021 (NZDUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.6940; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.6960 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6805. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the downside border of a Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7050. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7145.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 109.97; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 110.10 and then resume moving downwards to reach 108.95. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 110.25. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 111.10.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9157; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.9190 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9050. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the bullish channel’s downside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9260. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9350.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jul

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 09.07.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the daily chart, there is a steady descending correctional wave after divergence on MACD, which is testing and trying to break 23.6%% fibo at 0.7415. The next downside targets may be 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 0.7053 and 0.6757 respectively. The resistance is the high at 0.8007.

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows convergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback to the upside towards 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, and 61.8% fibo at 0.7524, 0.7594, 0.7651, and 0.7707 respectively. A breakout of the low at 0.7410 will result in a further downtrend.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking 76.0% fib, USDCAD is approachi9ng the fractal high at 1.2654. The support remains at the low at 1.2007. At the same time, there is divergence on MACD, which may indicate a new pullback after the asset tests the high.

In the H1 chart, the pair is growing towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 1.2576 and 1.2632 respectively. The local support is at 1.2252.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

09 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.07.09

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1789
Prev Close: 1.1846
% chg. over the last day: +0.48%

The European Central Bank has slightly adjusted its monetary policy. The ECB raised its inflation target to 2%. The figure is symmetric, meaning that negative and positive deviations from the target are equally undesirable. Eurozone inflation is expected to fall in June as labor shortages, and delays in raw material supplies are beginning to decrease. The rate of asset purchases on the ECB balance sheet decreased, which supported the euro.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1809, 1.1746, 1.1609
Resistance levels: 1.1847, 1.1889, 1.1934, 1.1969

The trend is still bearish. But there was an initiative from the buyers, who pushed the price to the moving average, forming a false breakdown zone below. The MACD indicator returned to the positive zone. Under such market conditions, it is better to trade intraday. It is necessary to wait for a pullback to the nearest resistance levels for short positions. Long positions can be considered from the support levels. The divergence on the MACD indicator on higher timeframes is not yet completely worked out; in other words, there is still potential for growth.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1889 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to be resumed.

News feed for 2021.07.09:

– ECB President Christine Lagarde’s Speech at 13:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3799
Prev Close: 1.3789
% chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The British pound is trading in a narrow price range. The LIBOR lending rate on the interbank market in London began to decline again, which is favorable for the British currency. Today, the UK will present the GDP report for the month and the quarter, and the head of the Bank of England will give a speech. Volatility on the GBP/USD currency pair will increase.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3756
Resistance levels: 1.3835, 1.3923, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

The GBP/USD trend is bearish on the H1 timeframe. Buying pressure has become weak now; the price drops below the moving average. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for both sell trades from the resistance levels and buy trades from the support levels on the intraday timeframes.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3922 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

News feed for 2021.07.09:

– UK GDP (m/m, q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK BoE Gov Andrew Bailey’s Speech at 13:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 110.60
Prev Close: 109.75
% chg. over the last day: -0.77%

The situation on the USD/JPY currency pair has changed. Yesterday, the price broke down through the change priority level on a big impulsive move, and the quotes fell by 0.77% by the end of the day. The Japanese Yen futures continue to increase due to a decline in US government bond yields (inverse correlation). This is the reason why the USD/JPY currency pair differs from the other pairs, where the main currency is the US dollar.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 109.62, 109.31
Resistance levels: 110.47, 110.73, 111.06, 111.48, 110.73, 112.18

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend has changed to a downtrend. Yesterday, the price confidently broke down through the change priority level and fixed lower. Under such market conditions, it is best for traders to look for sell positions from the resistance levels. There are no optimal entry points for buy positions now.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 110.73, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2474
Prev Close: 1.2532
% chg. over the last day: +0.46%

The USD/CAD currency pair began a corrective movement downwards within the ascending trend. Today, Canada will report on the labor market, which will allow estimating the fundamental picture and forecasting the actions of the Bank of Canada. At the moment, the Canadian dollar is highly correlated with the US currency and oil prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2519, 1.2478, 1.2404, 1.2347, 1.2312, 1.2260, 1.2190
Resistance levels: 1.2587

Technically, the trend remains bullish. The price is trading above the moving average, but there is a strong deviation from the midline. The MACD indicator has returned to the positive zone but with signs of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is best to trade on the lower timeframes. Buyers need to wait for a slight pullback to the nearest support levels. Traders can also look for entry points on intraday timeframes for short positions, but only with short targets because it will be trading against the trend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2370 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

News feed for 2021.07.09:

– Canada Employment Change (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

GBPJPY Has The Second Intervening Wave Ⓧ Begun?

By Orbex

The formation of the GBPJPY pair hints at a large triple zigzag of the primary degree, consisting of sub-waves Ⓦ-Ⓧ-Ⓨ-Ⓧ-Ⓩ.

It is quite likely that the development of the second intervening wave Ⓧ has started. This is similar to the intermediate double (W)-(X)-(Y) zigzag. The final intermediate actionary wave (Y), consisting of minor sub-waves A-B-C, is currently under development.

Prices could fall in the impulse wave C to the level of 147.32, at which, the primary wave Ⓧ will be at 38.2% of wave Ⓨ.

An alternative scenario shows the primary actionary wave Ⓨ of a large double zigzag has begun. This wave is similar to a simple zigzag. The last bullish wave (C), of an intermediate degree, has started and could be completed by sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5.

Wave (C) has the structure of an ending diagonal, since the end of wave 4 has gone beyond the end of wave 1.

In the coming trading days, we could expect the development of a minute zigzag within the minor wave 5, as shown on the chart.

Wave 5 can complete its growth near 159.12. At that level, wave (C) will be at 61.8% of wave (A).

By Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Grinds Higher

By Orbex

USDCAD rallies above recent peak

The US dollar keeps the high ground after the FOMC minutes delivered no surprises. The greenback saw a strong bid around the important support at 1.2300.

The RSI divergence suggests that the selling pressure has waned in this demand area. The latest bounce above the previous high at 1.2470 is the confirmation the bulls were looking for.

The pair may resume its uptrend and 1.2600 would be the next target. A temporary pullback driven by an overbought RSI may seek support around 1.2400.

XAUUSD meets key resistance

Gold continues to recover as US Treasury yields soften.

The non-yielding metal has slowly cleared the resistance at 1795, which had the benefit of attracting trend followers in joining the rebound.

The former supply area around 1790 has turned into a demand area. The RSI has returned to neutral territory. 1824 is a major hurdle ahead. A bullish breakout could raise volatility and confirm the reversal.

However, a fall below 1790 would dent intraday optimism and trigger a sell-off to retest 1760.

USOIL sinks towards daily support

Oil plunges as the OPEC+ deadlock over supply, fuels concerns for a price war.

The RSI divergence already indicated a loss in the upward momentum.

Price’s successive drop below 75.00, then 73.60, is the confirmation of a correction. Strong momentum suggests that buyers are forced to run for cover.

The bears are pushing for the psychological level of 70.00. Below that, the rising trendline (68.40) from April 2020 would be critical support. 75.30 is now the resistance in case of a rebound.

By Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.07.2021 (EURJPY, NZDCHF, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURJPY, “Euro vs Japanese Yen”

EURJPY is trading at 130.17; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 130.65 and then resume moving downwards to reach 129.25. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 131.35. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 132.25.

NZDCHF, “New Zealand Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

NZDCHF is trading at 0.6461; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s upside border at 0.6450 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.6575. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the bullish channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6435. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6345.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7457; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7505 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7295. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7555. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7645. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fix below 0.7390.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

Forex Technical Analysis & Forecast 08.07.2021

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD continues falling; after forming a new consolidation range around 1.1808 and then breaking it to the downside, the asset has completed the descending structure at 1.1780. Possibly, today the pair may fall to reach 1.1765 and then correct to return to 1.1808. After that, the instrument may start another decline with the target at 1.1722.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

GBPUSD has formed a new consolidation range around 1.3797. Today, the pair may fall to reach 1.3721 and then start another correction to return to 1.3797. Later, the market may form a new descending structure with the target at 1.3673.

USDRUB, “US Dollar vs Russian Ruble”

USDRUB is still consolidating around 74.40. Today, the pair may correct towards 73.23 and then resume growing towards 75.00 to complete the correction. After that, the instrument may start a new decline with the target at 72.00.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is still falling towards 110.27. Later, the market may form one more ascending wave to reach 111.00 and then resume trading downwards with the short-term target at 109.50.

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is still consolidating around 0.9201. Possibly, today the pair may start another growth to reach 0.9277 and then correct towards 0.9131. After that, the instrument may resume moving upwards with the target at 0.9340.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

After rebounding from 0.7600, AUDUSD is still falling with the target at 0.7411. Later, the market may start a new correction to return to 0.7600 and then resume trading downwards to reach 0.7303.

BRENT

After completing the descending wave at 72.33 and then forming a new consolidation range above this level, Brent is expected to correct towards 75.55. After that, the instrument may start a new decline to reach 73.30 and then form one more ascending structure with the target at 79.20.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

After forming a new consolidation range above 1795.83, Gold is expected to form a new descending structure to break 1750.33. Later, the market may continue trading downwards with the target at 1688.29.

S&P 500

The S&P index is still consolidating around 4340.0. Today, the asset may start a new decline with the first target at 4240.0 and then correct towards 4330.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

08 Jul

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.07.08

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1823
Prev Close: 1.1790
% chg. over the last day: -0.28%

Because of the dollar index growth, the EUR/USD currency pair fell by another 0.28%, breaking through the support level of 1.1809. The overall fundamental picture is starting to change as the United States is planning to cut the QE program, and Europe is not doing it so far. It will push the EUR/USD quotes down. The ECB monetary policy meeting is expected today.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1746, 1.1609
Resistance levels: 1.1809, 1.1847, 1.1889, 1.1934, 1.1969

The trend is still bearish. The price broke through the support level of 1.1809 and fixed lower. The initiative from the buyers is very weak. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, and there are signs of divergence on the higher timeframes. Under such market conditions, it is better to trade intraday. To sell, traders need to wait for a pullback to the nearest resistance levels. It is necessary to be careful with buy trades, as the price can drop to the next support level.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1889 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to be resumed.

News feed for 2021.07.08:

– ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 14:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3795
Prev Close: 1.3798
% chg. over the last day: +0.02%

The British pound looks a bit more confident than the euro. First of all, it is because the UK is a major supplier of Brent crude oil. However, for the last 2 days, oil is also correcting downward, so against the background of the dollar index growth, the British pound is slowly sliding to the support level of 1.3756.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3756
Resistance levels: 1.3835, 1.3923, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3922 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 110.61
Prev Close: 110.61
% chg. over the last day: 0.00%

The situation with the USD/JPY currency pair remains the same. The Japanese Yen futures are growing as well as the dollar index futures. It turns out that both currencies are strengthening, even with a slight advantage to the strengthening of the yen. Such a fundamental picture contributes to the formation of trading corridors on the charts.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 110.47, 109.83, 109.62, 109.31
Resistance levels: 110.73, 111.06, 111.48, 110.73, 112.18

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend remains bullish. The price reached the change priority level yesterday and tried to break down through it, but the buyers managed to defend their positions. Today, the sellers are trying to break the priority change level again during the morning session. It’s better to wait for the price to consolidate below the 110.47 level. There is no optimal entry point for buying now, only if a false breakout occurs and the price sharply returns above the 110.47 level.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 110.47, the general downtrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2459
Prev Close: 1.2483
% chg. over the last day: +0.19%

The growth of the dollar index and the fall in oil prices contributes to the upward trend on the USD/CAD currency pair. The price easily breaks throughout all resistance levels, but the first signs of a corrective wave have already appeared.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2478, 1.2404, 1.2347, 1.2312, 1.2260, 1.2190
Resistance levels: 1.2519, 1.2587

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2312 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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