Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 250

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 19.07.2021 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset is moving sideways. After testing the resistance area, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including Engulfing. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and resume trading downwards. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.1717. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1.1880 before resuming the downtrend.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, such as Hammer, not far from the support area. At the moment, USDJPY is reversing and may start a new rising movement. In this case, the upside target may be the resistance level at 110.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may form another pullback towards 109.70 before resuming the ascending tendency.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming an Engulfing reversal pattern near the resistance area, EURGBP may reverse and start a new descending structure. In this case, the downside target may be at 0.8540. Later, the market may break the support level and continue its descending tendency. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may correct towards 0.8610 first and then resume trading downwards.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 19.07.2021 (USDCHF, USDJPY, XAGUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9196; the instrument is moving inside Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a sideways tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.9175 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.9335. Another signal in favor of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the upside border of a Wedge reversal pattern. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.9130. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.9040.

USDCHF
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

USDJPY is trading at 109.95; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 110.10 and then resume moving downwards to reach 108.60. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the upside border of the Triangle pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 110.90. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 111.85. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the pattern’s downside border and fix below 109.40.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAGUSD, “Silver vs US Dollar”

XAGUSD is trading at 25.39; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 25.75 and then resume moving downwards to reach 24.15. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the neckline of a Head & Shoulders pattern. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 26.65. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 27.55.

XAGUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.07.19

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1804
  • Prev Close: 1.1804
  • % chg. over the last day: 0.00%

The consumer price index in the European Union remained unchanged in June, and it is a good factor for THE growth of the EUR/USD currency pair since, unlike the US, there is no acceleration of inflation in Europe.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1791, 1.1746, 1.1609
  • Resistance levels: 1.1834, 1.1889, 1.1934, 1.1969

The trend is still bearish. The price is trading in a narrow price range for the second day. The MACD indicator is inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider intraday trading. For sell positions, traders should wait for a pullback to the resistance level. Entries for long positions can be found on support levels, but with short targets since this kind of trading will be against the trend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.1889 resistance level and fixes above, the general uptrend is likely to be resumed.

EUR/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3820
  • Prev Close: 1.3764
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.40%

The GBP/USD currency pair fell by 0.4% on Friday. Now the price is trading in a wide range with the borders of 1.3756-1.3899. England removes most of its restrictions this week, so there are no fundamental reasons for the British pound to decrease, but technically everything points to the fact that the fall will continue.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3756, 1.3690
  • Resistance levels: 1.3805, 1.3899, 1.3923, 1.4002, 1.4075, 1.4101, 1.4138, 1.4191

The trend of the GBP/USD currency pair is bearish on the H1 timeframe. The MACD indicator went into the negative zone with no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider intraday trading. For sell positions, traders should wait for a pullback to the resistance level. Entries for long positions can be found on support levels.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.3922 resistance level and consolidates above, the bearish scenario is likely to be canceled.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 109.80
  • Prev Close: 110.07
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.24%

The Bank of Japan reviewed its forecasts for consumer inflation on Friday. It expects the inflation to be at 0.6% (previous value 0.1%) now. The upward change in the forecast is caused by two factors: rising energy prices and uncertainty about the spread of the Delta strain of coronavirus, which could have a negative impact on both domestic and foreign economies.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 109.63, 109.31
  • Resistance levels: 110.47, 110.73, 111.06, 111.48, 110.73, 112.18

From the point of view of technical analysis, the situation has not changed. There is a downward trend on the H1 timeframe, as the price is still trading below the priority change level and below the moving average. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, traders are better to look for sell positions from the resistance levels on intraday timeframes. Buy positions should be considered from support levels, but only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price rises above 110.73, the uptrend is likely to be resumed.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2586
  • Prev Close: 1.2608
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.17%

The USD/CAD currency pair added another 0.17% on Friday. The growth was caused by two factors: the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index is slowly growing, while oil prices are falling, which negatively affects the CAD.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2587, 1.2519, 1.2448, 1.2404, 1.2347, 1.2312, 1.2260, 1.2190
  • Resistance levels: 1.2649

Technically, the trend remains bullish. The price is growing, and there isn’t significant resistance from the sellers. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are already the first signs of reversal in the form of divergence. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider intraday trading. You should look for buy positions from the support levels after a small pullback, as resistance levels are ahead and the price is quite strongly deviated from the midline. Sell positions can be found from the resistance levels, but be very careful, as it will be trading against the main trend.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks through the 1.2370 support level and fixes below, the downtrend is likely to be resumed.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Accelerating inflation in the US and rising Delta strain cases continue to weigh on financial markets

by JustForex

On Friday, the US stock indices finished trading in the red zone amid concerns about accelerating inflation. Investors believe that the Fed is unable to control inflation, so even though many major corporations have reported high net profits and revenues due to the economic recovery, the fixation of the previously open positions is still observed in the market. Last week, the Dow Jones decreased by 0.52%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.97%, and the Nasdaq lost 1.87%. This week is not as eventful as the previous week, but it will be decisive and show whether the market is willing to continue the uptrend by turning a blind eye to high inflation. This week, the decline in stock indices could trigger a wave of sell-offs and the start of a big correction in the US stock market.

The European stock market closed with a slight decline on Friday. At the same time, the decline for the whole week was the worst over the last month. In the past week, the FTSE 100 has fallen by almost 2%, German DAX – by more than 1%, French CAC 40 has lost 1.3%. Despite the rising number of coronavirus cases in the UK per day, the country is lifting almost all remaining restrictions today as ministers believe in a vaccination program. However, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will go into self-imposed isolation after coming into contact with a man who was infected with COVID-19.

Oil prices are falling amid OPEC+ decision to increase production. Since August, OPEC+ countries will begin to increase oil production by 400,000 barrels per day until the complete winding down of the cuts, which were provided in May 2020. Thus, demand will begin to catch up with supply, so the price increase to $100 per barrel is canceled.

Despite the drop in gold prices on Thursday and Friday, it closed the week at +0.2%. But at the opening of trading on Monday, gold started falling sharply. The reason for the decline is the growth of the Treasury bonds yield (inverse correlation with gold) on the background of the good report on the US retail sales for June.

Asia-Pacific stock indices are now strongly correlated with US indices, so there is also a decrease. Investors’ concerns are also associated with the growth of Delta strain cases in the region.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,327.16 -32.87 (-0.75%)

Dow Jones 34,687.85 -299.17 (-0.86%)

DAX 15,540.31 -89.35 (-0.57%)

FTSE 100 7,008.09 -3.93 (-0.06%)

USD Index 92.71 +0.09 (+0.10%)

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Slowly Falling

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

Early in another July week, the major currency pair is falling amid market players’ sympathies towards the American currency. EUR/USD is trading at 1.1810.

The “greenback” got some significant support from the latest report on the retail sales in the USA, which showed 0.6% m/m in June after being -1.7% m/m the month before and against the expected reading of -0.4% m/m. The Core Retail Sales report showed 1.3% m/m against market expectations of 0.4% m/m. Despite the fact that Americans are currently spending more money on services, the demand for goods remains quite high.

The preliminary report on the Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan disappointed but was barely noticed by investors. Nevertheless, the indicator dropped to 80.0 points in July after being 85.5 points in the previous months, although it was expected to reach 86.5 points.

In the H4 chart, EUR/USD is forming another descending wave with the target at 1.1725. After testing this level, the instrument may continue falling. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by MACD Oscillator: its signal line is moving below 0, thus indicating that the descending wave continues.

As we can see in the H1 chart, the asset is also trading downwards and may soon reach 1.1750. Later, the market may form a new correction and then resume trading downwards with the target at 1.1725. From the technical point of view, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator: its signal line is steadily moving downwards below 25.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Key events this week: ECB to offer new forward guidance

By Han Tan Market Analyst, ForexTime

This new trading week is already kicking off on an eventful note, with OPEC+ members sealing an agreement to continue gradually raising output. This helps pump out more oil into the recovering global economy that’s in great need of more barrels.

Such an equation helps ease the upward pressure on oil prices, with Brent oil now testing its 50-day simple moving average as the key support level.

As long as global demand for oil remains robust, that should help put a sturdy floor below oil prices, limiting its declines. Even with today’s drop, Brent futures have still gained well over 41% so far this year.

Now that the supply-demand uncertainty in oil markets has been alleviated, investors would be hoping for more clarity in the outlook for other asset classes with some rather telling events in store this week:

Monday, July 19

  • UK “Freedom Day”

Tuesday, July 20

  • Eurozone current account balance
  • RBA minutes
  • Germany PPI
  • Netflix earnings

Wednesday, July 21

  • EIA crude oil inventory report
  • Japan external trade

Thursday, July 22

  • ECB rate decision
  • Eurozone consumer confidence
  • US initial jobless claims, existing home sales
  • Twitter, Snap Q2 earnings

Friday, July 23

  • PMIs for Eurozone, UK, US
  • UK consumer confidence, retail sales

 

ECB modifications: All talk, no action on 22 July

For the upcoming ECB policy meeting on 22 July, the central bank was initially expected to hold a run-of-the-mill meeting, where it keeps its policy settings untouched. And to be sure, that is still the base case, with interest rates still set to be left at minus 0.5% while the ECB’s asset purchases continue.

However, a week ago, ECB President Christine Lagarde informed markets to expect “some interesting variations and changes” to policymaker’s forward guidance this week.

It remains to be seen how “interesting” the ECB’s new choice of words would be this Thursday. For now, markets are expecting mere adjustment to its statement pertaining to its newfound inflation target, with no actual policy tweaks slated for this meeting.

That should explain the relatively subdued performance of EURUSD, not straying far from the 1.18 mark in recent sessions. Still, a decidedly dovish surprise out of the ECB this week, at a time when several of their G10 peers are already turning hawkish, could prompt more weakness in the euro.

Language that points to an extension of support measures for the Eurozone economy could set EURUSD well on its way to forming a death cross (when the 50-day SMA crosses below its 200-SMA).

Such a technical event could then herald further declines for the world’s most popular currency pair.

New record high for FXTM Social Media index?

Tech counters such as Netflix, Twitter and Snap are among the familiar names in the US earnings due this week. However, for the purposes of the Social Media index, the latter two stocks take on a lot more significance. After all, Twitter and Snap make up 50% of the Social Media index, with the other half of this evenly-weighted index comprising Facebook and Google stocks.

Twitter and Snap are due to release their respective Q2 earnings after markets close on Thursday, 22 July. Markets believe that the official figures would once again exceed forecasts, thanks to:

  • solid double-digit growth in its active user base
  • favourable comparisons from Q2 2020
  • the increased spend on online advertising due to a rapidly reopening US economy

Markets are also pricing in the prospects that Twitter and Snap’s stocks would move by more than 10% either way, the day when trading resumes post-earnings (Friday, 23 July). Should those moves materialize to the upside, that could spell a fresh peak for the Social Media index.

From a technical perspective, such a feat is possible, considering that the declines at the tail end of this past week have cleared some of the froth in this index. Its 14-day relative strength index has pulled away from the 70 line while prices have also dipped away from its upper Bollinger band.

Depending on how Twitter and Snap’s actual Q2 results come off, it could add to this Social Media index’s 42% year-to-date gains, as long as the broader market conditions remain conducive as well.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Week In Review: Earnings Kick Off, China Growth Slows, Powell Stays Dovish

By Lukman Otunuga Research Analyst, ForexTime

It was a week packed with key economic data from major economies, updated company earnings, and speeches from numerous central bank officials.

European and US stocks climbed to fresh record highs on Monday as investors eagerly awaited the start of earnings season. In the United Kingdom, Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that “Freedom Day” would take place on Monday 19th of July. There was little action in the FX space with the dollar struggling for direction ahead of the CPI data while gold wobbled above $1800.

The main event risk for Tuesday revolved around the start of US earnings with JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs under the spotlight. Results from both banking giants exceeded expectations thanks to better-than-expected loan losses. Attention was also directed towards the latest US CPI report. Consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years in June while annual inflation saw its biggest jump since 2008. Dollar bulls were inspired by the bumper CPI print with the DXY ending Tuesday’s session on a strong note.

Our trade of the week was the S&P 500 which flirted around record highs. We questioned whether the index would move to earnings season’s tune. 

Mid-week the focus shifted to Jerome Powell’s semi-annual testimony in front of Congress. Investors who were hoping for Powell to dish out a hawkish surprise were left empty handed following the dovish tone seen in his prepared remarks for the House Financial Service Committee. Powell soothed market fears of early easing of monetary support by sticking with the mantra that inflation is transitory.

Back in the United Kingdom, CPI jumped to its highest level since 2018. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), consumer prices rose by 2.5% in June, up from 2.1% in May. Sterling appreciated as the inflation figures were seen pressuring the Bank of England to hike interest rates down the line.

Overall market sentiment turned shaky on Thursday after China reported second-quarter GDP growth that fell short of market expectations. The world’s second largest economy grew by 7.9% in the second quarter of 2021 compared with the same period a year ago. This was significantly slower than the 18.3% year-on-year increase registered in the first quarter. Fears over the rapid spread of the Delta variant added to the caution, fanning fears over the global economic recovery. 

We shared a technical outlook near the end of the week with G10 currencies under the spotlight. It will be interesting to see whether the GBPUSD extends losses in the week ahead and how the EURUSD behaves around the 1.1800 – 1.1770 regions.

Sentiment remained choppy on Friday as investors digested the abundance of risk event, key economic data and speeches from policymakers this week. In the commodities arena, Gold failed to conquer the 200-day Simple Moving Average this week and is descending back towards the $1800 psychological level. Bears are likely to eye $1792 and $1760 if $1800 proves to be unreliable support.

 

Disclaimer: The content in this article comprises personal opinions and should not be construed as containing personal and/or other investment advice and/or an offer of and/or solicitation for any transactions in financial instruments and/or a guarantee and/or prediction of future performance. ForexTime (FXTM), its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness, of any information or data made available and assume no liability as to any loss arising from any investment based on the same.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

COT Currency Charts: US Dollar, Kiwi, Japanese Yen, Pound Sterling, Loonie, Peso, Bitcoin Futures

By CountingPips.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 13 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 11,257 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,688 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 7,569 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.6 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.62.919.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.946.95.6
– Net Position:11,257-16,6875,430
– Gross Longs:27,5021,0817,539
– Gross Shorts:16,24517,7682,109
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.1 to 13.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.246.989.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.3-18.033.0

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 59,713 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -17,477 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 77,190 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 53.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.954.913.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.269.67.3
– Net Position:59,713-101,37141,658
– Gross Longs:212,851378,32991,837
– Gross Shorts:153,138479,70050,179
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):53.347.149.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.223.2-48.4

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,969 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,934 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,903 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.954.917.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.362.215.3
– Net Position:7,969-12,5554,586
– Gross Longs:44,68694,67230,912
– Gross Shorts:36,717107,22726,326
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.722.365.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.618.1-30.0

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -56,250 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 12,886 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,136 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 35.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.971.58.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.534.817.2
– Net Position:-56,25074,736-18,486
– Gross Longs:40,440145,71616,520
– Gross Shorts:96,69070,98035,006
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 12.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):35.670.020.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.55.8-5.8

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 7,137 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -3,025 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,162 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.8 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.540.919.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.936.139.8
– Net Position:7,1372,225-9,362
– Gross Longs:18,07418,7078,825
– Gross Shorts:10,93716,48218,187
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 11.1 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.431.335.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.62.2-26.1

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 26,376 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -14,802 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,178 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.846.121.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.571.59.2
– Net Position:26,376-50,45024,074
– Gross Longs:63,10791,66442,347
– Gross Shorts:36,731142,11418,273
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.6 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):77.020.183.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.720.1-14.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -28,788 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -3,918 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -24,870 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.3 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.449.213.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:54.827.017.2
– Net Position:-28,78834,603-5,815
– Gross Longs:56,72176,75821,022
– Gross Shorts:85,50942,15526,837
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.8 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.650.244.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-30.039.1-43.4

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 3,230 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 1,469 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 1,761 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 76.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.6 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:48.640.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.046.610.2
– Net Position:3,230-2,794-436
– Gross Longs:20,62717,0043,899
– Gross Shorts:17,39719,7984,335
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):76.726.148.6
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.510.0-42.0

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -27,432 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -5,099 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -22,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.648.14.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:65.032.22.1
– Net Position:-27,43223,7393,693
– Gross Longs:69,61171,9086,900
– Gross Shorts:97,04348,1693,207
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.5 to 12.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.097.958.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.912.1-3.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 22,220 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 915 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,305 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:72.118.69.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.880.34.5
– Net Position:22,220-23,9541,734
– Gross Longs:27,9687,1953,490
– Gross Shorts:5,74831,1491,756
– Long to Short Ratio:4.9 to 10.2 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.00.087.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:24.7-24.0-4.6

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 5,791 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,897 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.8 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.959.75.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:23.074.32.6
– Net Position:5,791-7,1201,329
– Gross Longs:17,03629,1532,580
– Gross Shorts:11,24536,2731,251
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.8 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.169.282.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.9-3.713.3

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -1,167 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 104 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,271 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:62.87.621.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.21.511.4
– Net Position:-1,167441726
– Gross Longs:4,4765451,542
– Gross Shorts:5,643104816
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 15.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):71.181.313.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.813.6-13.0

 


Article By CountingPips.comReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 16.07.2021 (EURUSD, GBPJPY, AUDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1804; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1840 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1695. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1875. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1965. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 1.1765 – as we can see, after a couple of tests of this area, bears still failed to break it.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPJPY, “Great Britain Pound vs Japanese Yen”

GBPJPY is trading at 152.00; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 152.25 and then resume moving downwards to reach 150.75. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 153.05. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 154.05. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the support level and fix below 151.45, thus completing a Head & Shoulders pattern.

GBPJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

AUDUSD is trading at 0.7430; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.7455 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.7275. Another signal in favor of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.7525. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.7605.

AUDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 16.07.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

In the H4 chart, there is a steady descending movement towards 61.8% fibo at 0.7379. At the same time, we can see divergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible short-term pullback to the upside. In the future, this pullback may be followed by another descending wave to reach 76.0%% fibo at 0.7236. The resistance is the high at 0.8007.

AUDUSD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows potential correctional targets convergence on MACD, which are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 0.7524, 0.7594, and 0.7651 respectively. A breakout of the low at 0.7411 will result in a further downtrend.

AUDUSD_H1
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking 76.0% fib, USDCAD is approaching the fractal high at 1.2654. At the same time, there is divergence on MACD, which may indicate a new pullback. The support remains at the low at 1.2007.

USDCAD_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

The H1 chart shows potential correctional targets in more details. The targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 1.2471, 1.2382, and 1.2310 respectively. The local resistance is at 1.2614.

USDCAD_H1

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.