Archive for Forex and Currency News – Page 207

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.09

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1557
  • Prev Close: 1.1587
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.26%

The ECB representative said yesterday that the Eurozone is almost back to pre-pandemic levels in economic terms, and inflation has been more resilient than expected. The biggest problem for the Eurozone remains the energy crisis. Rising energy prices in Germany hit a 20-year high yesterday.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1573, 1.1535, 1.1502, 1.1453
  • Resistance levels: 1.1613, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But during the last two trading sessions, EUR/USD quotes are steadily growing without a significant pullback. The MACD indicator has become positive. The local pressure of buyers is higher at the moment. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. There is no optimal entry point for buy trades at the moment.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.11.09:
  • – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Daly’s Speech at 18:35 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3476
  • Prev Close: 1.3564
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.65%

Yesterday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey announced a potential interest rate hike at the December meeting, indicating that the central bank will act decisively to contain inflationary pressures. This statement was a surprise for traders who rushed to close their long positions after the Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. Also, the Bank of England head added that most of the growth of inflation is associated with the resumption of work after lockdowns.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3562, 1.3482, 1.3360
  • Resistance levels: 1.3616, 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator became positive, indicating local buying pressure. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average. There is no optimal entry point for buy trades at the moment.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3685 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.11.09:
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 18:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 113.33
  • Prev Close: 113.22
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.10%

Japan’s new government is working on a 35 trillion yen (307 billion US dollars) economic stimulus package. Such an injection into the economy will surely lead to higher inflation and the weakening of the Japanese currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
  • Resistance levels: 113.42, 114.48, 115.15

The global trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. But the local trend is strictly bearish at the moment. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone on the higher time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend will likely be broken.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2448
  • Prev Close: 1.2440
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.06%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dollar index dynamics and oil prices. The dollar index slightly decreased yesterday, while oil prices remained unchanged. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading flat. Fundamentally, the Canadian dollar is tending to strengthen now as oil prices are rising and the Canadian central bank has begun to cut its stimulus program. On the other hand, a rise in the dollar index may eliminate these factors.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2428, 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
  • Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency trend has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and there are no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2351 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Bank of England ready to raise interest rate at December meeting

by JustForex

The US stock market closed yesterday with a slight increase. The Dow Jones index increased by 0.29%, the S&P 500 index added 0.09%, and the Nasdaq Composite index added 0.07%. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices once again rewrote the historical highs.

According to FOMC officials, the US central bank is actively monitoring inflation indicators and is ready to act decisively if consumer prices continue to rise. But Fed officials are confident that inflation remains under control and interest rates should not be expected to rise until the end of the QE program reduction.

Main from Fed member Harker: “If inflation doesn’t cool, the Fed may have to accelerate rate hikes; I expect inflation to moderate next year as supply chains reopen and problems go away; the federal funds rate will rise before the Fed’s bond-buying cuts are completed.”

Main from Fed member Evans: “We need to reduce inflation by about 2%; it is difficult to predict how long it will take for supply and demand conditions to normalize and bring inflation down; the Fed is on track to complete the asset purchase reduction by mid-2022; it is unknown how long it will take for inflation to come down.”

The main from Fed member Bowman: “Predicting inflation caused by supply chain disruptions and labor market weakness is the Fed’s biggest problem; the problem with higher inflation has a stronger impact on low- and middle-income people.”

Alphabet’s capitalization jumped to $2 trillion. Google’s parent company has the best performance among the “big tech” companies this year, and it’s rising by 70%.

Yesterday, the main European stock indexes closed in different directions. The British FTSE 100 and German DAX lost 0.05%, Italian FTSE MIB decreased by 0.3%, and Spanish IBEX fell by 0.65%. Meanwhile, France’s CAC 40 index added 0.1%. The rise in energy prices in Germany reached a 20-year high. The ECB representative said yesterday that the Eurozone is almost back to pre-pandemic levels in economic terms, and inflation has been more resilient than expected. The biggest problem for the Eurozone remains the energy crisis. In addition, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey announced a potential interest rate hike at the December meeting, indicating that the central bank will act decisively to contain inflationary pressures.

Saudi Arabia also believes the next few weeks will be tight in the oil market, so its official selling price to Asia has been increased by $1.40 per barrel. Demand for jet fuel will rise as more governments remove restrictions on air travel.

Asia-Pacific stock markets are slightly down in Tuesday trading. Japan’s Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.5%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng decreased by 0.13%, and Australia’s ASX 200 lost 0.24%. At the same time, Shanghai Composite added 0.03%.

The value of Chinese real estate developer Evergrande increased by 0.4%. The company recently raised $145 million through the sale of shares in media company HengTen Networks Group Ltd and is on the eve of the next period of payments on dollar bonds now.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,701.70 +4.17 (+0.09%)

Dow Jones 36,432.22 +104.27 (+0.29%)

DAX 16,046.52 −7.84 (−0.049%)

FTSE 100 7,300.40 −3.56 (−0.049%)

USD Index 94.03 −0.29 (−0.30%)

Important events for today:
  • – Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – ECB President Lagarde’s Speech at 15:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 18:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Daly’s Speech at 18:35 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Japanese Candlestick Analysis for 08.11.2021 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, near the support level, the pair has formed several reversal candlestick patterns, including a Hammer and an Engulfing. At this stage, going by the pattern, the pair might start an upward momentum. The aim of growth is 1.1610. After a breakaway of the resistance level, the pair can continue with the uptrend. However, the quotations might pull back to 1.1510 before continuing growth.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotations are testing the resistance level and have formed several reversal patterns, including a Doji. At this stage, going by the patterns, the quotations can start a correction. The aim of the pullback is 114.25. However, the quotations might drop to 112.95 without a pullback to the resistance level.

USDJPY
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

On H4, at the resistance level, the pair has formed several reversal patterns, including an Engulfing. Currently, going by the signals, the quotations might start a correction. The aim of the pullback is 0.8540. Testing the support level and bouncing off it, the price might continue an uptrend. However, the quotations might grow to 0.8620 without any correction to the support level.

EURGBP

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 08.11.2021 (AUDUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 0.7410 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the signal lines of the indicator at 0.7420 is expected, followed by falling to 0.7275. An additional signal confirming the decline might become a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.7515, which will mean further growth to 0.7605.

AUDUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The currency pair is trading at 1.3487 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the signal lines of the indicator at 1.3540 is expected, followed by falling to 1.3295. The decline can be additionally confirmed by a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 1.3755, which will entail further growth to 1.3845.

GBPUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

Gold is trading at 0.7137 under the Ichimoku Cloud, suggesting a downtrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud at 0.7150 is expected, followed by falling to 0.6965. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be canceled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 0.7205, which will entail further growth to 0.7305.

NZDUSD

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.11.08

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.1552
  • Prev Close: 1.1567
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.13%

Europe is again in the epicenter of the COVID-19 Pandemic. According to the WHO, hospitalizations of patients with Covid-19 have more than doubled in just one week, with cases approaching record levels due to the more infectious Delta strain. All of this could lead to new quarantine restrictions in European countries, undoubtedly leading to lower economic numbers.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.1535, 1.1502, 1.1453
  • Resistance levels: 1.1573, 1.1618, 1.1645, 1.1667, 1.1717, 1.1772

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour time frame is bearish. But the price managed to return above the breakdown level, which indicates a possible false break move. The MACD indicator also shows a divergence. Under such market conditions, traders should consider sell positions from the resistance levels near the moving average. It is best to look for buy trades from the false breakdown zone.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.1667 resistance level and fixes above, the mid-term uptrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2021.11.08:
  • – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FED Chair Powell’s Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 17:55 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Evans’s Speech at 20:50 (GMT+2).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.3496
  • Prev Close: 1.3494
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.01%

The British pound is under intense selling pressure after the central bank of England did not tighten its monetary policy. Before the meeting, analysts were sure that it would happen, and the Governor of the Bank of England said that such a possibility existed. The British currency is now looking less confident than the Euro. The British pound may be supported only by the growing Brent oil quotes, as these two instruments are historically correlated.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.3482, 1.3360
  • Resistance levels: 1.3562, 1.3616, 1.3685, 1.3748, 1.3780, 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the trend on GBP/USD is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but there are signs of divergence. After Friday’s false breakdown, traders can look for buy trades on the lower time frames with the expectation of a technical rebound. It is best to look for sell deals from the resistance levels around the moving average, as prices have deviated strongly from the averages.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.3685 resistance level and consolidates above, the bullish scenario will likely resume.

GBP/USD
News feed for 2021.11.08:
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 113.75
  • Prev Close: 113.39
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.32%

At the moment, there is no fundamental reason for the JPY to strengthen. Firstly, the Bank of Japan has kept its monetary policy soft until the end of the year. Secondly, the Fed started to tighten its monetary policy, making the dollar index stronger and leading to the growth of USD/JPY quotes. Thirdly, investors often use the Japanese yen for borrowing to buy assets such as stocks, which usually negatively affect the Japanese currency.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 113.42, 112.30, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
  • Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. The price attempted to break down the “triangle,” but the movement was weak, and the buyers returned the price to the wide corridor, forming a false breakdown zone below. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the buyers’ initiative zone on the lower time frames. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher time frame, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.30, the uptrend will likely be broken.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2455
  • Prev Close: 1.2452
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.02%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so the USD/CAD currency pair highly depends on the dollar index dynamics and oil prices. On Friday, the dollar index remained at the same level, while oil prices increased by the end of the day. As a result, USD/CAD quotes slightly decreased due to strengthening the Canadian currency. The unemployment rate in Canada fell from 6.9% to 6.7%.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2428, 1.2352, 1.2306, 1.2260
  • Resistance levels: 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the USD/CAD currency trend has changed to bullish. The price broke through the priority change level and consolidated above. The MACD indicator has become inactive, and there are no signs of reversal. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades from the support levels, given there is the buyers’ initiative. Sell deals should be considered from the resistance levels of the higher time frame.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2351 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

EUR/USD Resigned to Pressure

By Dmitriy Gurkovskiy, Chief Analyst at RoboForex

At the beginning of the second week of November, euro/dollar is trading at 1.1560. The market keeps supporting the USD, and there are reasons for it.

According to statistics, the unemployment rate in October dropped to 4.6%, which is quite good. Average hourly wage over the reporting period increased by 0.4% m/m, which is a great result. The NFP in October grew above the expected – by 531 thousand.

On the whole, the employment statistics was positive, which supported the dollar. However, it felt quite confident earlier: the results of the Fed conference in November went according the expectations. The Fed cut down on stimulation as forecast.

On H4, EUR/USD performed a wave of decline to 1.1514 and a correction to 1.1560. The correction might continue to 1.1626. When it is over, the next wave of decline should continue, aiming at 1.1480. The goal is local. Then we expect a link of growth to 1.1560. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD: its signal line is trading below zero. Today, the indicator signals a possible correction. When it is over, we expect the signal lines renew next lows.

On H1, EUR/USD bounces off 1.1615 and performed another link of a declining wave to 1.1514. Today the market has performed a correction to 1.1558 and at the moment is trading in the consolidation range. With an escape upwards, a pathway to 1.1605 (at least) will open. With an escape downwards, trend will continue to 1.1480. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is trading above 50. We expect growth to 80. Then the indicator might drop to 20.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Pfizer and Merek are going to approve COVID-19 drug

by JustForex

Last week, investors’ attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data and the FOMC meeting. The Federal Reserve officially announced the reduction of the QE program. An interest rate hike is scheduled for the middle of next year. The labor market statistics were improving. The US economy added 531,000 (vs. 455 000 expected) jobs in October. The US Unemployment Rate fell to 4.6%. On the other hand, the US labor productivity fell in the third quarter, reflecting a sharp slowdown in economic growth and an increase in the number of working hours.

The US stock market ended Friday’s trading with growth. At the close of the day the Dow Jones increased by 0.56% (+1.38% for the week), the S&P 500 gained 0.37% (+1.88% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index increased by 0.20% (+2.77% for the week). But last week’s growth leader was the Russell 2000 index, which jumped by 5.88% by the end of the week, indicating the strengthening of small-cap companies. All four indices hit new all-time highs on Friday.

Pfizer announced that their antiviral COVID-19 drug reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 89% in an interim analysis of the EPIC-HR phase 2/3 study. The company plans to provide data to the FDA soon for approval for emergency use of the drug. Already more than 50 countries appealed to Pfizer for the COVID-19 medicine.

The UK will begin releasing Merck’s antiviral tablet Molnupiravir as part of a drug trial against COVID-19 later this month.

The White House says it is preparing to purchase the COVID-19 drug from both Merck and Pfizer.

European stock indices also closed the week with growth. By the end of the week, the British FTSE 100 gained 0.92%, the German DAX added 1.84%, the Spanish IBEX 35 increased by 0.7%, the Italian FTSE MIB added 2.24%, and the French CAC 40 jumped by 2.48% and became a growth leader. Eurozone industrial production unexpectedly decreased in September, indicating a long-term impact of restrictions on the supply and shortage of semiconductors.

Asian stocks fell on Friday. Japan’s Nikkei index decreased by 0.61% (+2.75% for the week), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.41% (-1.57% for the week), China’s benchmark CSI 300 index decreased by 0.54% (-0.73% for the week), the exception was Australia’s ASX 200, which increased by 0.39% (+1.60% for the week) on Friday.

In the commodities market, sugar futures (+3.68%), natural gas (+3.63%), lumber (+3.3%), palladium (+2.46%), gold (+2.02%), and cotton (+1.95%) showed the biggest gains by the end of the week. Soybean oil futures (-3.93%), cocoa (-3.77%), soybeans (-3.64%), WTI oil (-2.87%), gasoline (-2.73%), corn (-2.73%), and orange juice (-2.72%) showed the largest drop.

Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies rejected US President Joe Biden’s calls for a significant increase in production. That leaves Biden’s ability to use the US strategic reserve.

“The oil market is short of supply, it has entered a period of strong volatility, and prices will continue to rise in the near and medium-term. The emerging disagreement between OPEC and the US administration, the possible release of oil from the US strategic reserves, and the potential resumption of talks with Iran on the nuclear program will increase the volatility of oil prices in the coming weeks,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.

Gold prices unexpectedly increased last week, despite rises in both the dollar index and government bond yields, which have an inverse correlation with gold prices. Analysts are confident that the rise in gold is not supported fundamentally, so they expect gold and silver prices to decline in the coming weeks.

Main market quotes:

S&P 500 (F) 4,697.53 +17.47 (+0.37%)

Dow Jones 36,327.95 +203.72 (+0.56%)

DAX 16,054.36 +24.71 (+0.15%)

FTSE 100 7,303.96 +24.05 (+0.33%)

USD Index 94.22 -0.13 (-0.14%)

Important events for today:
  • – US FOMC Member Clarida’s Speech at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FED Chair Powell’s Speech at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams’s Speech at 17:55 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman’s Speech at 19:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Evans’s Speech at 20:50 (GMT+2).

by JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Attempts Rebound

By Orbex

USDCHF struggles for bids

USDCHF

The US dollar bounced higher on solid jobs performance in October. A bullish RSI divergence indicates a deceleration in the sell-off.

Sellers have started to cover after a close above the immediate support at 0.9170. However, the initial momentum was held back after the RSI shot into the overbought territory.

The bulls will need to lift offers around 0.9225, which sits on the 30-day moving average to attract more followers. On the downside, a break below 0.9100 may trigger a fall towards 0.9020.

USDCAD tests supply area

USDCAD

The Canadian dollar claws back some losses after Canada’s unemployment rate shrank to 6.7% in October. The US dollar’s break above 1.2430 has put the bears under pressure.

An overbought RSI has put a limit on the upside as intraday buyers take profit. The bulls are making an attempt at 1.2500. This level was a key support on the daily chart and has now turned into a resistance.

A bullish breakout may pave the way for a bullish reversal. A fall below 1.2375 would put the demand zone over 1.2300 at the test once again.

US 30 rises as risk appetite grows

US30

The Dow Jones 30 finds support from the passage of the $1 trillion US infrastructure bill. The index saw an acceleration to the upside after it rallied above the previous peak at 35600.

Sentiment remains bullish with short-term price action grinding up along a rising trendline. 36600 would be the next target.

The RSI’s overbought situation has led to a temporary retracement which could be an opportunity for trend followers to stake in. 36070 on the trendline is the first level where we can expect a rebound.


Orbex-LogoArticle by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

COT Currency Charts: Speculators push New Zealand Dollar bets to 34-Week High

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday November 2nd 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is the speculator’s boost of their New Zealand dollar bets. Speculator net positions for the NZD increased for a second consecutive week this week and for the seventh time out of the past nine weeks (9-week total of +16,002 contracts). This recent bullishness has brought the net speculator positions to over +13,000 contracts which is the highest level in the past thirty-four weeks, dating back to March 9th. NZD positions had been in negative or bearish territory as recently as August 31st before this recent bullishness propelled them higher.


Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend
Nov-02-2021OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
USD Index57,9478534,98286-42,05357,07194
EUR678,02475-6,13833-22,7286928,86626
GBP166,7801815,04785-11,73223-3,31549
JPY251,05889-107,6241126,00599-18,38112
CHF51,61330-20,6483425,49760-4,84949
CAD156,194344,16258-27,4413423,27982
AUD162,88854-75,4961473,970741,52656
NZD45,4363513,86195-16,62552,76483
MXN167,67632-51,018048,7951002,22352
RUB61,6017319,98261-21,882351,90086
BRL31,67433-14,2725014,35753-8566
Bitcoin13,51277-1,6126642101,19125

 


US Dollar Index Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 34,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 525 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 34,457 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:78.33.315.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.075.93.0
– Net Position:34,982-42,0537,071
– Gross Longs:45,3951,9118,799
– Gross Shorts:10,41343,9641,728
– Long to Short Ratio:4.4 to 10.0 to 15.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.14.793.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-19.419.4

 


Euro Currency Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Euro Currency large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -6,138 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,118 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,256 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 69.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.7 percent.

EURO Currency StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.257.912.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.161.38.2
– Net Position:-6,138-22,72828,866
– Gross Longs:191,496392,88284,160
– Gross Shorts:197,634415,61055,294
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.169.325.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.66.1-5.2

 


British Pound Sterling Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 15,047 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 94 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,953 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 22.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 48.8 percent.

BRITISH POUND StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:34.347.016.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:25.354.118.4
– Net Position:15,047-11,732-3,315
– Gross Longs:57,25578,42027,293
– Gross Shorts:42,20890,15230,608
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.822.748.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.0-7.6-5.1

 


Japanese Yen Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -107,624 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -588 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -107,036 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.1 percent.

JAPANESE YEN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.182.78.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:51.032.515.7
– Net Position:-107,624126,005-18,381
– Gross Longs:20,337207,61220,944
– Gross Shorts:127,96181,60739,325
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.398.712.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-32.229.5-16.7

 


Swiss Franc Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -20,648 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,379 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:2.870.626.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.821.235.5
– Net Position:-20,64825,497-4,849
– Gross Longs:1,43936,45613,485
– Gross Shorts:22,08710,95918,334
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 13.3 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.959.649.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-20.01.130.6

 


Canadian Dollar Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 4,162 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 842 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,320 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:26.943.928.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.261.513.3
– Net Position:4,162-27,44123,279
– Gross Longs:42,03768,54244,037
– Gross Shorts:37,87595,98320,758
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.7 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.534.581.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.7-29.021.5

 


Australian Dollar Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -75,496 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -250 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -75,246 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.871.515.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:58.126.114.9
– Net Position:-75,49673,9701,526
– Gross Longs:19,187116,46425,749
– Gross Shorts:94,68342,49424,223
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.674.156.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-21.244.5

 


New Zealand Dollar Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 13,861 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 4,955 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,906 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.5 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:60.523.513.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.060.06.9
– Net Position:13,861-16,6252,764
– Gross Longs:27,50410,6595,893
– Gross Shorts:13,64327,2843,129
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.4 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):94.54.883.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.7-11.418.8

 


Mexican Peso Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -51,018 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,729 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -43,289 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.4 percent.

MEXICAN PESO StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.759.13.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:67.130.02.0
– Net Position:-51,01848,7952,223
– Gross Longs:61,55399,0345,560
– Gross Shorts:112,57150,2393,337
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.052.4
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.515.0-6.2

 


Brazilian Real Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -14,272 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -13,330 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -942 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 49.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 52.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent.

BRAZIL REAL StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.461.89.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:73.416.59.8
– Net Position:-14,27214,357-85
– Gross Longs:8,98919,5743,023
– Gross Shorts:23,2615,2173,108
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 13.8 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):49.552.665.8
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.828.2-13.3

 


Russian Ruble Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of 19,982 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -1,480 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,462 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 60.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 35.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:59.136.34.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.671.81.5
– Net Position:19,982-21,8821,900
– Gross Longs:36,38922,3692,843
– Gross Shorts:16,40744,251943
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.5 to 13.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):60.735.486.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.1-4.910.2

 


Bitcoin Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Bitcoin large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -1,612 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 2,800 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,412 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 24.9 percent.

BITCOIN StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:67.15.414.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:79.02.35.6
– Net Position:-1,6124211,191
– Gross Longs:9,0627271,943
– Gross Shorts:10,674306752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.8 to 12.4 to 12.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):65.678.224.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-13.741.65.5

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 05.11.2021 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, USDCHF)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1554; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1.1565 and then resume moving downwards to reach 1.1470. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 1.1620. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 1.1705.

EURUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1796.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1790.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1845.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1765.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1735.00.

XAUUSD
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

USDCHF, “US Dollar vs Swiss Franc”

USDCHF is trading at 0.9123; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.9140 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.9005. Another signal in favour of a further downtrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bearish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.9195. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.9285. To confirm further decline, the asset must break the downside border of the Triangle pattern and fix below 0.9075.

USDCHF

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.