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COT Forex Charts: Speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets rise for 9th straight week

By InvestMacro.com COT Home | Data Tables | Data Downloads | Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday October 19th 2021 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the euro will decline versus the dollar.

Highlighting this week’s COT Currency data is once again the speculator’s US Dollar Index bullish bets which have gained for nine consecutive weeks. Dollar Index speculative bullish positions have now risen for seventeen out of the past eighteen weeks to hit the highest level in the past one-hundred and five weeks, dating back to October 15th of 2019. The speculator strength index score (current levels compared to past three years) rose again this week and shows that spec sentiment is now in an extreme bullish position (88 percent score) for the third week in a row.

Data Snapshot of Forex Market Traders | Columns Legend

Oct-19-2021	OI	OI-Index	Spec-Net	Spec-Index	Com-Net	COM-Index	Smalls-Net	Smalls-Index
USD Index	60,731	91	35,934	88	-42,728	4	6,794	91
EUR	679,418	75	-12,107	31	-17,573	71	29,680	27
GBP	158,961	13	1,615	75	-2,381	28	766	57
JPY	266,750	100	-102,734	4	122,640	98	-19,906	9
CHF	55,600	36	-17,584	39	33,353	68	-15,769	17
CAD	153,912	33	-10,924	46	-7,837	47	18,761	75
AUD	158,531	51	-76,058	13	81,311	80	-5,253	42
NZD	37,730	20	6,440	82	-7,598	19	1,158	65
MXN	164,268	31	-38,571	1	36,459	99	2,112	52
RUB	53,589	59	22,171	66	-24,341	30	2,170	93
BRL	29,983	30	-658	68	-115	33	773	76
Bitcoin	13,605	93	-2,846	24	246	0	2,600	75

US Dollar Index Futures:

The US Dollar Index large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 35,934 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 872 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,062 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 3.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.9 percent.

US DOLLAR INDEX Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	78.3	3.5	14.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	19.2	73.8	3.0
– Net Position:	35,934	-42,728	6,794
– Gross Longs:	47,568	2,104	8,642
– Gross Shorts:	11,634	44,832	1,848
– Long to Short Ratio:	4.1 to 1	0.0 to 1	4.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	87.8	3.6	90.9
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	25.0	-26.0	13.1

Euro Currency Futures:

The Euro Currency large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -12,107 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 6,291 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -18,398 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 31.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.0 percent.

EURO Currency Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	28.5	57.4	12.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	30.2	59.9	8.5
– Net Position:	-12,107	-17,573	29,680
– Gross Longs:	193,320	389,682	87,763
– Gross Shorts:	205,427	407,255	58,083
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.9 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	31.3	70.8	27.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-11.8	15.7	-27.4

British Pound Sterling Futures:

The British Pound Sterling large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 1,615 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 13,594 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -11,979 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.2 percent.

BRITISH POUND Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	30.9	50.0	17.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	29.9	51.5	17.1
– Net Position:	1,615	-2,381	766
– Gross Longs:	49,112	79,459	27,920
– Gross Shorts:	47,497	81,840	27,154
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	75.2	28.3	57.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	18.8	-13.4	-7.2

Japanese Yen Futures:

The Japanese Yen large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -102,734 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -26,100 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -76,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.3 percent.

JAPANESE YEN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	13.4	77.9	7.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	51.9	31.9	15.4
– Net Position:	-102,734	122,640	-19,906
– Gross Longs:	35,713	207,735	21,090
– Gross Shorts:	138,447	85,095	40,996
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.3 to 1	2.4 to 1	0.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	4.4	98.1	9.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-25.2	22.1	-7.7

Swiss Franc Futures:

The Swiss Franc large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -17,584 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,612 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -12,972 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 68.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent.

SWISS FRANC Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	4.3	80.3	15.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	35.9	20.3	43.7
– Net Position:	-17,584	33,353	-15,769
– Gross Longs:	2,365	44,662	8,549
– Gross Shorts:	19,949	11,309	24,318
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.9 to 1	0.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	39.2	68.4	17.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-31.1	27.7	-19.8

Canadian Dollar Futures:

The Canadian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -10,924 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 16,936 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -27,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.1 percent.

CANADIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	26.2	47.2	25.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	33.3	52.3	13.1
– Net Position:	-10,924	-7,837	18,761
– Gross Longs:	40,380	72,675	38,947
– Gross Shorts:	51,304	80,512	20,186
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.8 to 1	0.9 to 1	1.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	45.9	46.7	75.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-4.1	-1.1	10.1

Australian Dollar Futures:

The Australian Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -76,058 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 11,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -87,608 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.7 percent.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	7.3	76.6	13.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	55.3	25.4	17.0
– Net Position:	-76,058	81,311	-5,253
– Gross Longs:	11,632	121,502	21,748
– Gross Shorts:	87,690	40,191	27,001
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.1 to 1	3.0 to 1	0.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	13.1	79.6	41.7
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish	Bearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-5.2	-1.6	18.2

New Zealand Dollar Futures:

The New Zealand Dollar large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 6,440 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -2,308 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 8,748 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	55.7	29.7	12.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	38.6	49.8	9.2
– Net Position:	6,440	-7,598	1,158
– Gross Longs:	21,004	11,194	4,631
– Gross Shorts:	14,564	18,792	3,473
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.4 to 1	0.6 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	82.1	18.7	65.1
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish-Extreme	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	4.3	-4.0	0.4

Mexican Peso Futures:

The Mexican Peso large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -38,571 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,063 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,634 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent.

MEXICAN PESO Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	42.7	52.9	3.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	66.2	30.7	2.3
– Net Position:	-38,571	36,459	2,112
– Gross Longs:	70,192	86,864	5,934
– Gross Shorts:	108,763	50,405	3,822
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.6 to 1	1.7 to 1	1.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	0.5	99.4	52.0
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish-Extreme	Bullish-Extreme	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-10.0	11.1	-10.8

Brazilian Real Futures:

The Brazilian Real large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -658 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -285 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -373 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 76.2 percent.

BRAZIL REAL Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	54.7	33.0	11.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	56.9	33.4	9.2
– Net Position:	-658	-115	773
– Gross Longs:	16,399	9,906	3,535
– Gross Shorts:	17,057	10,021	2,762
– Long to Short Ratio:	1.0 to 1	1.0 to 1	1.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	67.7	33.3	76.2
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-9.4	10.2	-8.2

Russian Ruble Futures:

The Russian Ruble large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of 22,171 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 2,863 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 19,308 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 65.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.5 percent.

RUSSIAN RUBLE Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	58.9	35.0	5.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	17.5	80.5	1.8
– Net Position:	22,171	-24,341	2,170
– Gross Longs:	31,551	18,778	3,134
– Gross Shorts:	9,380	43,119	964
– Long to Short Ratio:	3.4 to 1	0.4 to 1	3.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	65.9	29.7	93.5
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bullish	Bearish	Bullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	2.9	-3.9	13.3

Bitcoin Futures:

The Bitcoin large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -2,846 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,426 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.3 percent.

BITCOIN Statistics	SPECULATORS	COMMERCIALS	SMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:	52.0	3.6	28.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:	72.9	1.8	9.3
– Net Position:	-2,846	246	2,600
– Gross Longs:	7,069	486	3,868
– Gross Shorts:	9,915	240	1,268
– Long to Short Ratio:	0.7 to 1	2.0 to 1	3.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– COT Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):	23.8	59.7	75.3
– COT Index Reading (3 Year Range):	Bearish	Bullish	Bullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:	-49.4	38.0	45.8

Article By InvestMacro.com – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).

22 Oct

EURUSD Impulse Likely To End At 1.2268

By Orbex

EURUSD eyes the development of a large bullish impulse. This impulse consists of intermediate sub-waves (1)-(2)-(3)-(4)-(5). Most likely, the construction of an intermediate correction (4) has recently ended. This has a complex internal structure of a triple zigzag W-X-Y-X-Z of the minor degree.

After the completion of the intermediate correction (4), the market moved higher. The development of an intermediate impulse wave (5) has begun. This consists of sub-waves 1-2-3-4-5, as shown on the chart.

Most likely, in the near future, the price in sub-wave 3 will rise to a high of 1.2268. This was marked by the minor intervening wave X.

Let’s consider an alternative scenario, where the formation of an intermediate correction (4) has not ended. Not so long ago, the market completed the formation of the minute intervening wave ⓧ, which is part of the minor wave Z.

To complete the minor wave Z, a minute wave ⓩ is necessary. Most likely, it will take the form of a minuette simple zigzag (a)-(b)-(c), as shown on the chart. Correction (b) may soon come to an end, after which the development of impulse (c) will begin.

Thus, in the short term, we could expect the market to move down near 1.1353. At that level, minute wave ⓩ will be at 100% of wave ⓨ.

Article by Orbex

Orbex is a fully licensed broker that was established in 2011. Founded with a mission to serve its traders responsibly and provides traders with access to the world’s largest and most liquid financial markets. www.orbex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Oct

Intraday Market Analysis – USD Consolidates Gains

By Orbex

USDJPY seeks support

The US dollar steadies over lower-than-expected initial jobless claims.

Sentiment remains upbeat, however, the pair is struggling to climb past the psychological level of 115.00, probably due to overextension. The RSI’s double top in the overbought area and bearish divergence suggests that the rally could be losing steam.

A breach below 113.90 would prompt weaker hands to exit, leading to a pullback towards 113.00. A rebound past the said resistance would send the price to March 2017’s high of 115.40.

XAGUSD to test critical ceiling

Silver stalls as the greenback reclaims some lost ground. The break above the round number of 24.00 indicates strong commitment from the buy-side.

The bulls are looking at the major resistance at 24.80 from the daily timeframe, as a breakout would end a five-month-long correction and pave the way for a bullish reversal.

However, an overbought RSI coupled with a bearish divergence suggests possible exhaustion in the run-up. 23.60 would be the first level to watch for if the price pulls lower in search of support.

SPX 500 tests all-time high

The S&P 500 flies high supported by better-than-expected third-quarter earnings. The index has reached the previous all-time high at 4550.

A breakout may trigger a runaway rally. Nonetheless, a repeatedly overbought RSI may cause a limited pullback as buyers take profit.

A drop below the immediate support at 4515 would pull the trigger. 4445 would be next as it coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the October rally. The bulls are likely to buy the dips though after sentiment turns optimistic.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Oct

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 22.10.2021 (EURUSD, XAUUSD, NZDUSD)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

EURUSD is trading at 1.1631; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 1.1620 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1.1755. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1.1550. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1.1455.

XAUUSD, “Gold vs US Dollar”

XAUUSD is trading at 1790.00; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 1775.00 and then resume moving upwards to reach 1825.00. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 1760.00. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 1725.00.

NZDUSD, “New Zealand Dollar vs US Dollar”

NZDUSD is trading at 0.7171; the instrument is moving above Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating an ascending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen at 0.7145 and then resume moving upwards to reach 0.7315. Another signal in favour of a further uptrend will be a rebound from the rising channel’s downside border. However, the bullish scenario may no longer be valid if the price breaks the cloud’s downside border and fixes below 0.6950. In this case, the pair may continue falling towards 0.6865.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Oct

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 22.10.2021 (AUDUSD, USDCAD)

Article By RoboForex.com

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, convergence on MACD made the pair start a new rising wave, which, after reaching 50.0% fibo, was followed by another pullback. After the pullback is over, the asset may resume growing to complete the correctional phase at 61.8% fibo (0.7591). Later, the market may reverse and start another decline towards the low and the mid-term 38.2% fibo at 0.7106 and 0.7052 respectively.

The H1 chart of AUDUSD shows that the start of a new correctional decline, which has already reached 23.6% fibo and may later continue towards 38.2% and 50.0% fibo at 0.7402 and 0.7358 respectively. A breakout of the local resistance at 0.7546 will complete the correction and lead to a further uptrend.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, convergence on MACD made the pair stop falling at 61.8% fibo and start a new movement to the upside, which may be the start of another long-term rising wave to break the high at 1.2949 and reach 38.2% fibo at 1.3022. At the same time, an alternative scenario implies one more descending impulse towards 76.0% fibo at 1.2233.

The H1 chart shows a more detailed structure of the current ascending movement after convergence on MACD. The closest upside targets are 23.6%, 38.2%, and 50.0% fibo at 1.2403, 1.2474, and 1.2531 respectively. The support is the low.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

22 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.10.22

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1650
Prev Close: 1.1642
% chg. over the last day: -0.07%

The ECB spokesperson Visco said that the rising debt of the EU will boost European capital markets. But once the crisis is over, debt reduction should be accelerated. According to economists, the ECB will start to reduce its stimulus program in December.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1613, 1.1573, 1.1548, 1.1502, 1.1453
Resistance levels: 1.1658, 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour timeframe is bullish. The MACD indicator became negative. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buying positions from the support levels near the moving average or from the buyer’s initiative areas. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1573 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2021.10.22:

– German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– German Service PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone Service PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
– US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US Service PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3815
Prev Close: 1.3792
% chg. over the last day: -0.17%

Economists forecast the UK economy to increase by 6.8% in 2021; 5.0% in 2022, and the increase in interest rates will not occur until the first quarter of 2022.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3764, 1.3736, 1.3685, 1.3648, 1.3617, 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360
Resistance levels: 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. The British currency looks more confident than the euro due to a direct correlation with oil prices. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Buy trades should be considered only within the day and only from the initiative zone of the buyers. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe, but after an additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative, because the buyers’ pressure is still higher.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3648 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.10.22:

– UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
– UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
– UK Service PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 114.20
Prev Close: 113.99
% chg. over the last day: -0.18%

The national core CPI in Japan increased by 0.1% (forecast 0.1%, previous 0.0%). Inflation expectations in Japan are not rising as fast as in Europe and the USA. Therefore, the Bank of Japan will maintain a monetary policy as long as possible.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 113.93, 112.19, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. At the moment, the price is trading flat and has formed false break zones on both sides. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average or the buyers’ initiative zones on the lower timeframes. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher timeframe, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

News feed for 2021.10.22:

– Japan National Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3).

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2316
Prev Close: 1.2366
% chg. over the last day: +0.40%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index sharply increased yesterday, while oil prices decreased. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair added 0.4% due to the strengthening of the US currency.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2306, 1.2260
Resistance levels: 1.2425 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The narrowing of liquidity in the form of a triangle occurred in the direction of buying. The MACD indicator has become positive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades should be considered only on lower time frames from the initiative zone of buyers near the triangle breakout point.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2518 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2021.10.22:

– Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

by JustForex

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Oct

Fibonacci Retracements Analysis 21.10.2021 (Brent, Dow Jones)

Article By RoboForex.com

Brent

As we can see in the H4 chart, after breaking the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 82.19 and 85.14 respectively, Brent continues growing steadily to reach the fractal high at 87.09. At the same time, there is divergence on MACD, which may indicate a possible pullback to the downside. The key support here remains the local low at 65.03.

The H1 chart shows the potential short-term downside correctional targets after divergence on MACD and a test of 86.10. If the pair fails to break the high in the nearest future, the asset may fall towards 23.6% and 38.2% fibo at 81.13 and 78.05 respectively.

Dow Jones

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset continues trading upwards; right now, it is testing the high at 35631.0, a breakout of the which will lead to a further uptrend towards the post-correctional extension area between 138.2% and 161.8% fibo at 36440.0 and 36937.0 respectively. The key support is the fractal low at 33517.0.

The H1 chart shows divergence on MACD, which indicates a possible pullback to the downside after the price finishes the ascending wave. The correctional targets may be 23.6% and 38.2% fibo at 35295.0 and 35068.0 respectively. After the pullback is over, the asset may resume trading upwards. The local support is at 34101.0.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Oct

October’s Global Flash PMIs: FX Volatility Day

By Orbex

Given the situation in global supply chains, PMI data has returned to focus.

Businesses are increasingly reporting difficulties in obtaining supplies. This translates into lower profits and slower economic growth. Purchasing managers are likely to be at the forefront of the impact. Therefore, investors would be very interested in their perception of the business outlook for the next six months.

Tomorrow’s data is preliminary, and subject to adjustment when the final figures come out two weeks from now. However, the market tends to move the most on the flash data because the final is often not far from the preliminary figure.

We could see some strong volatility in most currency pairs since there are so many countries reporting Flash PMIs over the next 24 hours.

What to look out for

First up is Australia, which could provide the first dose of optimism. Manufacturing PMI could show a slight decline to 56.0 from 56.6 in September.

Most of the focus though, is on the Services component, as that’s the most affected by the lockdowns. There, PMI may expand to 48.0 from 45.5. This is a substantial improvement, but still in contraction. We’d have to see a number above 50 before investors are likely to have enough confidence to push the Aussie higher.

Data from the UK, however, is not immune from a drop in optimism as the new normal reasserts itself. Analysts expect Services PMI to have a retracement to 54.5 from 55.4, while Manufacturing PMI could have a significant move to 55.8 from 57.1.

Both measures are of course above 50 and in expansion territory. Nonetheless, the drop going into the key shopping season might be of concern for investors.

The final PMI release of the month could bring a little bit of optimism from the US. Specifically, there is an expectation for Services PMI to move up marginally to 55.1 from 54.1 prior. The fact that there is unequal recovery across the US because of the varying levels of covid restrictions still in place likely distorts the figure. Manufacturing PMI might decline to 54 from 55. As long as it remains above 50, it’s unlikely to affect the dollar as much.

European PMIs

Moving on to the European PMI releases, the first to report is France. The data often sets the tone for the euro since it’s the first of the big economies to report.

The focus is returning back to the manufacturing sector since the country has been out of lockdown for quite some time. However, economists anticipate that both sectors may fall back in their optimism. Projections are for French Services PMI to fall to 55.5 from 56.2, while Manufacturing PMI drops to 54 from 55.

There is a possibility for German PMIs to have a similar pattern as France – still in growth, but with waning optimism. The trend could weigh on risk sentiment, particularly going into the weekend.

Analysts predict German Services PMI to have the largest decline of the reporting countries, particularly at 55.0, compared to 56.2 in September. Manufacturing PMI could also fall to 56.5 from 58.4 prior.

Lastly, the summary of eurozone PMIs may have a slight decline, with Services’ projection to stay firmly in growth at 55.5 from 56.4. Manufacturing PMI might drop to 57.0 from 58.6.

A modest decline in optimism across Europe wouldn’t hurt growth outlooks too much. This is because a certain pullback from recovery optimism is predictable as the economy returns to its normal growth patterns.

Article by Orbex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Oct

Japanese Candlesticks Analysis 21.10.2021 (EURUSD, USDJPY, EURGBP)

Article By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

As we can see in the H4 chart, the asset has completed the correction by forming several reversal patterns, including Shooting Star, close to the resistance level. At the moment, EURUSD may reverse and start a new decline. In this case, the downside target may be at 1.1542. Later, the market may break the support area and continue trading downwards. However, an alternative scenario implies that the price may correct to reach 1.1700 first and then resume trading downwards.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

As we can see in the H4 chart, USDJPY has formed several reversal patterns, for example, Hanging Man, while testing another resistance area. At the moment, USDJPY is reversing and may start a new correctional impulse towards the rising channel’s downside border. In this case, the correctional target may be at 113.50. At the same time, an opposite scenario implies that the price may grow to reach 114.95 and continue the ascending tendency without any corrections towards the support level.

EURGBP, “Euro vs Great Britain Pound”

As we can see in the H4 chart, after forming several reversal patterns, such as Hammer and Inverted Hammer, near the support level, EURGBP may reverse and start a new pullback. In this case, the correctional target may be at 0.8484. Later, the market may test the resistance area, rebound from it, and resume the descending tendency. Still, there might be an alternative scenario, according to which the asset may continue falling to reach 0.8400 without testing the resistance area.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

21 Oct

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2021.10.21

by JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.1631
Prev Close: 1.1651
% chg. over the last day: +0.17%

The ECB’s balance continues to grow despite the rising inflationary pressures. The total assets increased by another €22.4 billion, reaching a new level of €8,336.7 billion. The ECB continues to fill the economy with “cheap” money.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1629, 1.1548, 1.1502, 1.1453
Resistance levels: 1.1671, 1.1717, 1.1772, 1.1802, 1.1835

From the technical point of view, the EUR/USD on the hour timeframe is bullish. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are signs of buyer’s weakness. Under such market conditions, traders should consider buying positions from the support levels near the moving average or from the buyer’s initiative areas. It is best to look for sell trades from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.1548 support level and fixes below, the mid-term uptrend will likely be broken.

News feed for 2021.10.21:

– US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3789
Prev Close: 1.3823
% chg. over the last day: +0.25%

The UK Consumer Price Index was 3.1% (previous 3.2%), indicating that inflation in the United Kingdom is slowing. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also declined from 3.1% to 2.9%. The UK Secretary of State for Business, Kwasi Kwarteng, is confident that the government will contain inflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3739, 1.3685, 1.3648, 1.3617, 1.3532, 1.3457, 1.3360, 1.3282
Resistance levels: 1.3831, 1.3886

On the hourly time frame, the GBP/USD trend is bullish. The British pound is strengthening due to its direct correlation with oil prices and the weakness of the dollar index. The MACD indicator is in the positive zone, but there are the first signs of buyers’ weakness. Buy trades should be considered only within the day and only from the initiative zone of the buyers. It is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels of the higher timeframe, but after an additional confirmation in the form of a sellers’ initiative because the buyers’ pressure is higher now.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.3648 support level and consolidates below, the bullish scenario is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 114.32
Prev Close: 114.32
% chg. over the last day: 0.00%

Concerns about high energy prices are growing in Japan as it leads to lower corporate profits. The Japanese yen is still trading at highs against the US dollar, and this trend might intensify further.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 114.08, 113.66, 112.19, 111.53, 110.99, 110.65
Resistance levels: 114.48, 115.15

The main trend of the USD/JPY currency pair is bullish. At the moment, the price is trading flat and has formed false break zones on both sides. The MACD indicator has become inactive. However, there is still a divergence on higher time frames, which means that growth is limited, and correction is expected soon. Under such market conditions, it’s better to look for buy positions from the support levels near the moving average or the buyers’ initiative zones on the lower timeframes. Sell positions should be considered from the resistance levels of a higher timeframe, given there is sellers’ initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price falls below 112.19, the uptrend is likely to be broken.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2359
Prev Close: 1.2317
% chg. over the last day: -0.34%

The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency, so USD/CAD is highly dependent on the dynamics of the dollar index and oil prices. The dollar index decreased yesterday, while oil prices reached a new high. As a result, the USD/CAD currency pair continued its downward trend due to a strengthening of the Canadian dollar. Inflation in Canada increased in September at the fastest pace since 2003 due to high gas and housing prices. The annual consumer price index reached 4.4% (+0.3% vs. August), and this is the sixth month in a row that inflation has exceeded the Bank of Canada’s target of 1% to 3%.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2260
Resistance levels: 1.2425 1.2518, 1.2565, 1.2628, 1.2729, 1.2774

From the technical point of view, the trend of the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price has already failed to reach the lower boundary of the descending channel, indicating the weakness of the sellers. The MACD indicator is in the negative area, but there are still signs of divergence on higher time frames. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for sell deals from the resistance levels near the moving average. Buy trades should be considered only on lower time frames after a buyer’s initiative movement out of the triangle upwards.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out through the 1.2518 resistance level and fixes above, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

by JustForex

Financial News Forex and Currency News

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts.

All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.