Archive for Financial News – Page 310

07 Aug

Elliott Waves: Your “Rhyme & Reason” to Mainstream Market Opinions

R.N. Elliott’s stock market observations fell together “into a general set of principles”

By Elliott Wave International

It’s understandable why investors with little experience consult the market opinions of professionals.

But many of these new investors are left scratching their heads. Two headlines from July 29 indicate why:

  • [Fundstrat Managing Partner] says the 2022 bear market is over, stocks could hit new highs before year-end (CNBC)
  • Stock market’s post-Fed bounce is a ‘trap,’ says Morgan Stanley’s [Chief Investment Officer] (Marketwatch]

Yes, two directly opposing opinions that were published on the same day.

The date before those headlines published (July 28), happened to be Ralph Nelson Elliott’s 151st birthday.

You may be interested in his discovery about stock market behavior because it offers an alternative to consulting mainstream financial stories.

Here’s a brief overview: In the 1930s, Ralph Nelson Elliott (1871-1948) discovered that the stock market moves in recurring patterns that he called waves.

Elliott had led an active life as an accountant and management consultant, working at various times for railroad companies in Mexico, Central America and South America, a business magazine, and for the State Department before becoming seriously ill with pernicious anemia.

In the book, R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks, Elliott Wave International President Robert Prechter describes what happened next:

Despite being physically debilitated by his malady, Elliott needed something to occupy his acute mind while recuperating between its worst attacks. … It was around 1932 that Elliott began turning his full attention to … finding out whether there was any rhyme or reason to the stock market. …

Around May 1934 … his numerous observations of general stock market behavior began falling together into a general set of principles that applied to all degrees of wave movement in the stock price averages.

Elliott’s insights continue to be employed by investors today.

The basic Elliott wave pattern consists of five subwaves (denoted by numbers) which move in the same direction as the trend of the next larger size and three corrective subwaves (denoted by letters) which move against the trend of the next larger size:

When this initial eight-wave cycle such as shown by the illustration ends, a similar cycle begins.

In other words, the basic Elliott wave pattern links to form five- and three-wave structures of increasingly larger size.

An important point is that the Wave Principle helps investors to identify turning points in the trends of financial markets.

Indeed, here’s a quote from Frost & Prechter’s Wall Street classic, Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior:

When after a while the apparent jumble gels into a clear picture, the probability that a turning point is at hand can suddenly and excitingly rise to nearly 100%. It is a thrilling experience to pinpoint a turn, and the Wave Principle is the only approach that can occasionally provide the opportunity to do so.

Here’s the good news: You can access the entire online version of the book for free once you become a member of Club EWI, the world’s largest Elliott wave educational community.

Club EWI is free to join without any obligations and members enjoy free access to Elliott wave resources on financial markets and investing, including exclusive articles and interviews with Elliott Wave International’s analysts.

Click on the link to get started right away: Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior — get free and instant access.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Elliott Waves: Your “Rhyme & Reason” to Mainstream Market Opinions. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Financial News Stock Market News
06 Aug

Bonds Speculators bets drop this week led by Fed Funds, Eurodollar & 10-Year Bond

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes: COT Week 31

COT bond market speculator bets were overall lower this week as all eight of the bond markets we cover recorded declining speculative bets on the week.

The bond markets leading the declines in speculator positions were the Fed Funds (-149,893 contracts) and the Eurodollar (-102,744 contracts) with the 10-Year Bond (-95,630 contracts), the 5-Year Bond (-20,772 contracts), the 2-Year Bond (-9,604 contracts), the Long US Bond (-9,408 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year (-5,365 contracts) and the Ultra US Bond (-1,854 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

 

Data Snapshot of Bond Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
Eurodollar9,609,60915-2,786,68323,137,69297-351,00927
FedFunds1,540,43744-2,7253914,19762-11,47231
2-Year2,058,44212-99,46862182,72560-83,25714
Long T-Bond1,172,81540-56,0536643,3232612,73063
10-Year3,540,07632-295,49028382,61767-87,12759
5-Year3,935,26348-335,94524430,65666-94,71155

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the US Treasury Bond (66.3 percent) and the 2-Year Bond (62.2 percent) lead the bonds markets strength positions and are the only two markets above their midpoint positions (above 50 percent) over the past three-year range.

On the downside, the Eurodollar (1.6 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is joined in an extreme bearish level (below 20 percent) by the Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.4 percent). The 5-Year Bond (24.3 percent), the 10-Year Bond (27.5 percent) and the Fed Funds (39.3 percent) come in as the next lowest strength scores this week.


Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (39.3 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (57.8 percent)
2-Year Bond (62.2 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (64.1 percent)
5-Year Bond (24.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (27.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (27.5 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (42.1 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (19.4 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (20.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (66.3 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.4 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (41.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (42.3 percent)
Eurodollar (1.6 percent) vs Eurodollar previous week (3.5 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for bonds this week. The 2-Year Bond (4.0 percent) is the only other positive mover in the latest trends data. The 5-Year Bond (-40.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next markets with lower trend scores were the Fed Funds (-15.7 percent), the Eurodollar (-14.6 percent) and the US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-15.7 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (4.5 percent)
2-Year Bond (4.0 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.2 percent)
5-Year Bond (-40.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-21.8 percent)
10-Year Bond (-10.2 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (0.9 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (13.1 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-12.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (-5.6 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (-2.9 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (-3.5 percent)
Eurodollar (-14.6 percent) vs Eurodollar (-15.3 percent)

Individual Markets:

3-Month Eurodollars Futures:

Eurodollar Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 3-Month Eurodollars large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,786,683 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -102,744 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,683,939 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 97.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 27.2 percent.

3-Month Eurodollars StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.172.04.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:33.139.37.7
– Net Position:-2,786,6833,137,692-351,009
– Gross Longs:391,7556,915,941392,620
– Gross Shorts:3,178,4383,778,249743,629
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.8 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.697.127.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.613.91.4

 

30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -2,725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -149,893 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 147,168 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 39.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.075.32.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.274.32.9
– Net Position:-2,72514,197-11,472
– Gross Longs:153,9481,159,50833,605
– Gross Shorts:156,6731,145,31145,077
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):39.361.630.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.717.0-31.8

 

2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -99,468 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -9,604 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -89,864 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.9 percent.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.579.97.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.371.011.1
– Net Position:-99,468182,725-83,257
– Gross Longs:236,8031,644,805144,664
– Gross Shorts:336,2711,462,080227,921
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.259.813.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:4.0-5.01.3

 

5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -335,945 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,772 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -315,173 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 24.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.9 percent.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.382.18.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.971.210.5
– Net Position:-335,945430,656-94,711
– Gross Longs:327,8963,232,238317,840
– Gross Shorts:663,8412,801,582412,551
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):24.365.854.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-40.717.224.8

 

10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -295,490 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -95,630 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -199,860 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 27.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 58.9 percent.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:6.880.59.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:15.169.612.4
– Net Position:-295,490382,617-87,127
– Gross Longs:239,4382,848,101351,703
– Gross Shorts:534,9282,465,484438,830
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):27.567.358.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.2-2.621.0

 

Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -36,291 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -30,926 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.7 percent.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.782.711.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.869.621.6
– Net Position:-36,291152,427-116,136
– Gross Longs:54,793966,321136,755
– Gross Shorts:91,084813,894252,891
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.2 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):19.479.449.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.1-15.521.7

 

US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -56,053 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -9,408 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -46,645 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 26.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 62.7 percent.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.178.014.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.974.313.0
– Net Position:-56,05343,32312,730
– Gross Longs:83,261915,066164,718
– Gross Shorts:139,314871,743151,988
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.326.162.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.01.924.9

 

Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week totaled a net position of -352,115 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,854 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -350,261 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.0 percent.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:3.784.611.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.461.28.1
– Net Position:-352,115307,87744,238
– Gross Longs:48,8801,114,434150,939
– Gross Shorts:400,995806,557106,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.4 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.665.660.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.9-4.411.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

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06 Aug

COT Week 31 Charts: Soft Commodities Speculator bets rose higher this week led by Corn & Soybean Oil

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT soft commodities speculator bets were mostly higher this week as six out of the eleven soft commodities markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets recorded lower contracts.

Leading the gains for soft commodities markets was Corn (14,827 contracts) with Soybean Oil (9,351 contracts), Soybeans (7,286 contracts), Lean Hogs (4,296 contracts), Soybean Meal (3,269 contracts) and Live Cattle (962 contracts) also having positive weeks.

The softs markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,665 contracts) and Cocoa (-5,365 contracts) with Cotton (-2,035 contracts), Coffee (-1,357 contracts) and Wheat (-750 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,606,9103253,7520-272,86610019,11442
Gold459,6492124,32612-135,5659011,2390
Silver136,26739747-9,064938,0908
Copper184,44116-27,4062327,67278-26624
Palladium6,9453-2,56082,74390-18333
Platinum68,26636-2,5415-1,708964,24921
Natural Gas984,5705-124,9734187,5965837,37769
Brent171,75117-32,7825631,8354694722
Heating Oil276,5202622,06875-35,3893413,32144
Soybeans572,925092,52742-65,63264-26,89526
Corn1,347,8946201,35556-149,43451-51,92113
Coffee207,7401227,28462-27,968446846
Sugar760,0931134,43844-35,229617919
Wheat316,24412-7251810,88875-10,16358

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Soybean Meal (88.6 percent) leads the soft commodity markets currently – up from last week (86.8 percent) and remaining in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent). Coffee (62.4 percent), Corn (55.8 percent) and Lean Hogs (50.0 percent) come in as the next highest soft commodity markets and all are above the midpoint (50 percent) of their three-year ranges. On the downside, Cocoa (15.7 percent) and Wheat (18.1 percent) come in at the weakest strength levels currently and are both in extreme bearish readings (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
Corn (55.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (53.9 percent)
Sugar (43.7 percent) vs Sugar previous week (49.8 percent)
Coffee (62.4 percent) vs Coffee previous week (63.6 percent)
Soybeans (42.3 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (40.1 percent)
Soybean Oil (23.8 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (17.4 percent)
Soybean Meal (88.6 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (86.8 percent)
Live Cattle (25.6 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (24.4 percent)
Lean Hogs (50.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (45.3 percent)
Cotton (46.3 percent) vs Cotton previous week (47.6 percent)
Cocoa (15.7 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (21.0 percent)
Wheat (18.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (19.1 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Lean Hogs (30.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for soft commodity markets. Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) comes in as the only other positive mover in the latest trends data and this, overall, shows the weakening sentiment for soft commodity speculators over the past six weeks after starting the year with strong bullish sentiment. On the downside, Sugar (-26.4 percent) leads the negative trend scores currently with Soybeans (-26.1 percent), Wheat (-25.8 percent) and Soybean Oil (-25.6 percent) following as the next markets with lower trend scores.


Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (-22.8 percent) vs Corn previous week (-27.2 percent)
Sugar (-26.4 percent) vs Sugar previous week (-21.9 percent)
Coffee (-19.1 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-15.8 percent)
Soybeans (-26.1 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (-29.6 percent)
Soybean Oil (-25.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-36.0 percent)
Soybean Meal (8.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (9.8 percent)
Live Cattle (-4.1 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (4.0 percent)
Lean Hogs (30.1 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (30.5 percent)
Cotton (-18.4 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-17.3 percent)
Cocoa (-5.2 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (6.6 percent)
Wheat (-25.8 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-26.6 percent)

Individual Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 201,355 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 14,827 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 186,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.748.09.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:10.859.113.0
– Net Position:201,355-149,434-51,921
– Gross Longs:346,483647,342123,650
– Gross Shorts:145,128796,776175,571
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.850.613.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.825.21.0

 

SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 34,438 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -29,665 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 64,103 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 43.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.8 percent.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.053.18.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.557.78.5
– Net Position:34,438-35,229791
– Gross Longs:182,484403,31965,198
– Gross Shorts:148,046438,54864,407
– Long to Short Ratio:1.2 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):43.761.58.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.427.7-21.5

 

COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 27,284 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,357 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,641 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 43.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 5.8 percent.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.454.73.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.368.23.6
– Net Position:27,284-27,968684
– Gross Longs:44,520113,6798,153
– Gross Shorts:17,236141,6477,469
– Long to Short Ratio:2.6 to 10.8 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.443.95.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-19.122.1-21.0

 

SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 92,527 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 7,286 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 85,241 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 63.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.654.06.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.465.511.1
– Net Position:92,527-65,632-26,895
– Gross Longs:146,533309,59436,964
– Gross Shorts:54,006375,22663,859
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.8 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.363.925.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.126.1-2.5

 

SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 30,381 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 9,351 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,030 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 23.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.057.66.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.966.16.2
– Net Position:30,381-31,6051,224
– Gross Longs:67,218215,40224,405
– Gross Shorts:36,837247,00723,181
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.9 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):23.880.318.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.629.0-34.0

 

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 109,776 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,269 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 106,507 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.239.911.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:2.473.46.1
– Net Position:109,776-132,17222,396
– Gross Longs:119,342157,41946,629
– Gross Shorts:9,566289,59124,233
– Long to Short Ratio:12.5 to 10.5 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.614.249.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.0-6.4-10.5

 

LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,889 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 962 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,927 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 62.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:35.339.212.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.653.912.4
– Net Position:36,889-37,027138
– Gross Longs:88,54598,15031,097
– Gross Shorts:51,656135,17730,959
– Long to Short Ratio:1.7 to 10.7 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.662.682.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.12.25.6

 

LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 39,717 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 4,296 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,421 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.8 percent.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.334.39.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:21.348.813.1
– Net Position:39,717-31,860-7,857
– Gross Longs:86,61675,56320,898
– Gross Shorts:46,899107,42328,755
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.7 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.055.855.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:30.1-34.16.0

 

COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 37,163 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -2,035 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 39,198 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 46.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 21.4 percent.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:36.047.36.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.168.05.1
– Net Position:37,163-38,8841,721
– Gross Longs:67,40188,60011,339
– Gross Shorts:30,238127,4849,618
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.7 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):46.356.121.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-18.420.1-31.8

 

COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -1,957 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,365 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 3,408 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.4 percent.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.445.64.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.045.63.5
– Net Position:-1,957641,893
– Gross Longs:92,787144,15512,923
– Gross Shorts:94,744144,09111,030
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.0 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):15.786.015.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-5.24.83.4

 

WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -725 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 25 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 75.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 57.7 percent.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.340.48.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.537.012.1
– Net Position:-72510,888-10,163
– Gross Longs:95,807127,78427,981
– Gross Shorts:96,532116,89638,144
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 11.1 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):18.175.257.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-25.837.4-33.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Soft Commodities
06 Aug

COT Week 31 Charts: Energy Speculators push bets higher led by Brent Crude Oil & Gasoline

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets recorded lower contracts on the week.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (8,700 contracts) with Gasoline (5,414 contracts), Heating Oil (3,384 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (3,040 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets with declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-6,683 contracts) and WTI Crude Oil with a week change of -5,508 contracts for the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,606,9103253,7520-272,86610019,11442
Gold459,6492124,32612-135,5659011,2390
Silver136,26739747-9,064938,0908
Copper184,44116-27,4062327,67278-26624
Palladium6,9453-2,56082,74390-18333
Platinum68,26636-2,5415-1,708964,24921
Natural Gas984,5705-124,9734187,5965837,37769
Brent171,75117-32,7825631,8354694722
Heating Oil276,5202622,06875-35,3893413,32144
Soybeans572,925092,52742-65,63264-26,89526
Corn1,347,8946201,35556-149,43451-51,92113
Coffee207,7401227,28462-27,968446846
Sugar760,0931134,43844-35,229617919
Wheat316,24412-7251810,88875-10,16358

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that Heating Oil (74.9 percent) leads the energy markets currently and is up from 69.9 percent last week. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.2 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market followed by Brent Crude Oil (56.2 percent). On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) remains at the bottom of its three-year range and is in a bearish extreme level. Gasoline (22.9 percent) comes in as the next lowest followed by Natural Gas (41.1 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (1.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (56.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (41.6 percent)
Natural Gas (41.1 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (43.1 percent)
Gasoline (22.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (17.4 percent)
Heating Oil (74.9 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (69.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (59.2 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (47.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (19.5 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Heating Oil (18.4 percent), Brent Crude Oil (8.8 percent) and the Natural Gas (1.8 percent) fill out the other positive movers in the latest trends data. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.5 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently followed by WTI Crude Oil at -10.7 percent.


Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-10.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-13.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (8.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-8.6 percent)
Natural Gas (1.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (1.6 percent)
Gasoline (19.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (14.0 percent)
Heating Oil (18.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (15.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.5 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-28.1 percent)

Individual Markets:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 253,752 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -5,508 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 259,260 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.538.44.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.755.43.4
– Net Position:253,752-272,86619,114
– Gross Longs:361,810616,74174,356
– Gross Shorts:108,058889,60755,242
– Long to Short Ratio:3.3 to 10.7 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.0100.041.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-10.715.2-21.6

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -32,782 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 8,700 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -41,482 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 56.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 22.0 percent.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.350.34.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.431.83.4
– Net Position:-32,78231,835947
– Gross Longs:28,07486,4156,872
– Gross Shorts:60,85654,5805,925
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.6 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):56.246.222.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.8-7.0-13.7

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -124,973 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,683 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -118,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 68.6 percent.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.740.16.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:30.431.23.0
– Net Position:-124,97387,59637,377
– Gross Longs:174,529394,37166,623
– Gross Shorts:299,502306,77529,246
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.158.568.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:1.80.5-17.7

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 50,818 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 5,414 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 45,404 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 76.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.9 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:31.146.87.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:11.069.44.9
– Net Position:50,818-57,2956,477
– Gross Longs:78,784118,68619,000
– Gross Shorts:27,966175,98112,523
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.976.455.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:19.5-14.6-27.9

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 22,068 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,384 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 18,684 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 74.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 33.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.5 percent.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.852.714.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.865.59.9
– Net Position:22,068-35,38913,321
– Gross Longs:46,505145,84440,829
– Gross Shorts:24,437181,23327,508
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):74.933.644.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-7.7-18.4

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -12,623 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,040 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -15,663 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.7 percent.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.574.40.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.455.90.2
– Net Position:-12,62312,388235
– Gross Longs:15,79149,891373
– Gross Shorts:28,41437,503138
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.240.918.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.517.8-2.1

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Energy Financial News investing
06 Aug

COT Week 31 Charts: Stock Market Speculator bets led lower by Russell 2000 & MSCI EAFE Minis

By InvestMacro | COT | Data Tables | COT Leaders | Downloads | COT Newsletter

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday August 2nd and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes

COT stock market speculator bets were overall lower this week as just two out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other five markets had lower contracts on the week.

Leading the gains for stock markets was the S&P500 Mini (5,750 contracts) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average Mini with a gain of 2,764 contracts.

The stock markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were the Russell 2000 Mini (-14,743 contracts) and the MSCI EAFE Mini (-14,707 contracts) while the Nasdaq Mini (-7,097 contracts), the VIX (-6,273 contracts) and the Nikkei 225 USD (-245 contracts) also had lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Stock Market Traders | Columns Legend
Aug-02-2022OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
S&P500-Mini2,310,6658-231,88513293,137100-61,25214
Nikkei 22513,4108-4,635553,353461,28244
Nasdaq-Mini262,3255024,71289-9,09421-15,61816
DowJones-Mini72,61931-18,4211422,96090-4,53914
VIX322,60433-98,83860105,97141-7,13357
Nikkei 225 Yen59,868438,3486024,11686-32,4648

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (88.8 percent) has the highest strength score currently and remains in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent) although slightly lower from last week (92.8 percent). The VIX (59.8 percent) and the Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) come in as the next highest stocks market in strength scores. On the downside, the Russell 2000-Mini (0.0 percent), the EAFE-Mini (1.9 percent), the S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) and the DowJones-Mini (13.8 percent) all currently have very weak speculator sentiment and are in bearish extreme positions (below 20 percent).


Strength Statistics:
VIX (59.8 percent) vs VIX previous week (62.9 percent)
S&P500-Mini (13.2 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (12.2 percent)
DowJones-Mini (13.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (10.1 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (88.8 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (92.8 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (0.0 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (8.3 percent)
Nikkei USD (55.4 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (56.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (1.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.6 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) is the only stock market that has a positive six week trend for stocks at the moment.  The EAFE-Mini (-35.9 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently while the next lower trend scores were from the VIX (-24.5 percent) followed by the S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) and the Nikkei USD (-14.5 percent).


Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-24.5 percent) vs VIX previous week (-9.2 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-21.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-50.4 percent)
DowJones-Mini (9.4 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (1.5 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (-3.4 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (1.9 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-8.1 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-5.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-14.5 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-9.4 percent)
EAFE-Mini (-35.9 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (-24.8 percent)

Individual Markets:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -98,838 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,273 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,565 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 40.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 56.8 percent.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.262.87.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.929.99.9
– Net Position:-98,838105,971-7,133
– Gross Longs:39,442202,54224,811
– Gross Shorts:138,28096,57131,944
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.1 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.840.756.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.524.5-6.4

 

S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -231,885 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 5,750 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -237,635 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.5 percent.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.377.39.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.364.612.2
– Net Position:-231,885293,137-61,252
– Gross Longs:237,5941,786,757220,741
– Gross Shorts:469,4791,493,620281,993
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.2 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.2100.013.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-21.822.5-6.6

 

Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -18,421 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 2,764 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -21,185 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 89.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:22.362.514.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:47.630.920.4
– Net Position:-18,42122,960-4,539
– Gross Longs:16,16145,38510,253
– Gross Shorts:34,58222,42514,792
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 12.0 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.889.814.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.4-8.0-5.7

 

Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 24,712 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -7,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 31,809 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 20.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.657.111.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.160.617.6
– Net Position:24,712-9,094-15,618
– Gross Longs:74,918149,77330,452
– Gross Shorts:50,206158,86746,070
– Long to Short Ratio:1.5 to 10.9 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):88.820.916.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.411.4-25.5

 

Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -119,954 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -14,743 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -105,211 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.6 percent.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:5.589.53.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.167.34.1
– Net Position:-119,954123,483-3,529
– Gross Longs:30,724497,84419,324
– Gross Shorts:150,678374,36122,853
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.099.716.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.18.1-3.8

 

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,635 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -245 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -4,390 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 55.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 44.4 percent.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.860.829.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.335.820.3
– Net Position:-4,6353,3531,282
– Gross Longs:1,1788,1514,002
– Gross Shorts:5,8134,7982,720
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):55.446.444.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-14.56.123.0

 

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,514 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -14,707 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -16,807 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 1.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 64.8 percent.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.991.42.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.784.91.6
– Net Position:-31,51426,2695,245
– Gross Longs:20,008370,69811,622
– Gross Shorts:51,522344,4296,377
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):1.9100.064.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-35.933.229.5

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Reports by Email

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting).See CFTC criteria here.

CountingPips Forex Blog Financial News investing Stock Market News
05 Aug

The cryptocurrency market digest (BTC). Overview for 05.08.2022

Article By RoboForex.com

After several failed attempts, the BTC is trying to rise once again. As a result, major crypto has been “in the red” for seven consecutive trading sessions, and here’s another attempt to correct that. On Friday, the BTC is looking rather neutral and trading at $23,244.

The struggle between bulls and bears continues as they keep the BTC inside the range of $22,500-$23,500. Nothing will change here until the price breaks either border of the range.

The “greenback” behaviour helps the BTC one day and upsets it the next day. When the USD gets weaker, the BTC goes up, just like today. However, local upward movements in the American currency brought the BTC’s feeble attempts to rise to naught.

Franck Muller accepts payments in BNB

Swiss company Franck Muller, which is involved in selling watches, started accepting payments for its goods in crypto, BNB in particular. Earlier, an auction was completed on the Binance NFT trading platform. The fact that the crypto can be used in real life is good for its price.

ZB was hacked

Crypto exchange ZB was hacked and lost $4.7 million worth cryptocurrency. Daily trading volume at the exchange is estimated at $1.1 billion; it ranks 47th on the list of crypto platforms.

Nomad Bridge managed to get crypto back

Hackers returned $9 million in cryptocurrency they stole after hacking Nomad bridge. They sent it back to a special wallet created for these purposes. Some part of this money came from popular ENS addresses. We remind you that Nomad Bridge was hacked on 1 August.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Cryptocurrencies Financial News
05 Aug

Murrey Math Lines 05.08.2022 (Brent, S&P 500)

Article By RoboForex.com

BRENT

As we can see in the H4 chart, Brent is trading within the “oversold area”. In this case, the price is expected to break -1/8 and continue moving upwards to reach the resistance at 1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks the support at -2/8 to the downside. After that, the lines in the chart will be redrawn, thus helping us to define new downside targets.

BRENTH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the upside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue its growth.

BRENT_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

As we can see in the H4 chart, the S&P Index is still trading below the 200-day Moving Average to indicate a descending tendency. In this case, the price is expected to test 2/8, break it, and then continue falling towards the support at 1/8. However, this scenario may no longer be valid if the asset breaks the resistance at 3/8 to the upside. After that, the instrument may reverse and grow to reach the next resistance at 5/8.

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

In the M15 chart, the pair may break the downside line of the VoltyChannel indicator and, as a result, continue trading downwards.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
05 Aug

Week Ahead: Persistent inflation to revive Dollar bulls?

By ForexTime

Inflation angst could make its jarring presence felt once more, as the upcoming US inflation data release holds court amidst the coming week’s global economic calendar:

Monday, August 8

  • AUD: Australia July foreign reserves
  • NZD: New Zealand 3Q 2-year inflation expectation

Tuesday, August 9

  • AUD: Australia July household spending, August consumer confidence
  • Coinbase 2Q earnings

Wednesday, August 10

  • CNH: China July CPI, PPI
  • USD: US July consumer price index (CPI), speeches by Chicago Fed President Charles Evans, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari
  • US crude: EIA weekly oil inventory report
  • Disney 2Q earnings

Thursday, August 11

  • AUD: Australia August consumer inflation expectations
  • USD: US weekly jobless claims, July PPI, speech by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly

Friday, August 12

  • GBP: UK June GDP, industrial production; 2Q GDP, external trade
  • EUR: Eurozone June industrial production
  • USD: US August consumer sentiment

 

For the US July consumer price index (CPI), the median estimate from the Bloomberg survey comes in at 8.8%.

If so, that would mark a moderation in the headline inflation print from June’s 9.1%, after four consecutive months of the headline CPI print exceeding market forecasts.

Signs of easing inflationary pressures may allow the US Federal Reserve to start backing off from its aggressive rate-hiking stance, having already raised interest rates by a cumulative 225 basis points since March.

Markets are expecting just another 100 basis points to go in this ongoing rate hike cycle, before the Fed then reversing course by mid-2023 to avoid tipping the US economy into a recession.

In other words, markets think that the “largest chunks” of the Fed’s hiking cycle are already behind us.

Such a narrative has put the US dollar in the back seat in recent weeks, in turn allowing risk assets such as stocks and cryptos to stage a recovery.

(Note that such expectations may alter significantly later today – Friday, August 5th – given that this article is being written before the release of the July US nonfarm payrolls report).

 

US dollar pulls away from multi-year high

Since posting a 2-year high on July 14th, the equally-weighted US dollar index has faltered back to its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

This USD index measures the US dollar’s performance against six other major currencies, all in equal proportions:

  • NZDUSD
  • USDCAD
  • GBPUSD
  • USDCHF
  • AUDUSD
  • EURUSD

 

How might the upcoming US CPI print impact the dollar?

A lower-than-expected CPI print may prompt this USD index to fall below its 50-day SMA and test the 1.16832 – 1.17090, being its recent cycle low and a key Fibonacci retracement line since its ascent from early April.

Otherwise, a fifth-consecutive upside surprise in the official CPI data, that forces markets to restore their bets for more larger-than-usual Fed rate hikes in the pipeline, may see the USD index climbing back above its 50-day SMA.

Immediate resistance can be seen around the 1.18913 Fibonacci level, with stronger resistance set to arrive at the “twin peaks” around 1.195.

Pay attention also to the roster of Fed speak in the coming week, which may offer greater insights into how Fed officials interpret the path forward for US interest rates.

Fresh meaningful insights into the path forward for US interest rates are set to sway the greenback, which in turn would reverberate across the FX universe.

Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

 

 

Financial News Forex and Currency News
05 Aug

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.08.05

By JustForex

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.0159
  • Prev Close: 1.0245
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.84%

An important report on US Nonfarm Payrolls will be released today. Economists expect the US economy to have added about 250,000 jobs in July, up from 372,000 the previous month. The jobs report will also serve as an overview of the likely path of monetary policy action by the Federal Reserve, as the Сentral Bank emphasized the strength of the labor market as evidence that the economy remains resilient and able to withstand further rate hikes.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.0196, 1.0112, 1.0035, 1.0000
  • Resistance levels: 1.0245, 1.0264, 1.0284, 1.0365, 1.0415, 1.050

From the technical point of view, the trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is still forming a wide volatile balance with the borders of 1.0112-1.0284. Buyer pressure increased significantly over yesterday. The MACD indicator became positive again. Under such market conditions, buy trades are best sought on intraday time frames from the support level of 1.0196. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0245 or 1.0264, but only after additional confirmation and only with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.0112 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

EUR/USD
News feed for 2022.08.05:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2135
  • Prev Close: 1.2158
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19%

The Bank of England raised the interest rate by 0.5% as expected. The rate is now at the level of 1.75%, higher than the ECB (0.5%) but lower than the US Federal Reserve (2.5%), the Canadian central bank (2.5%), and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (2.5%). Normally when the interest rate rises, the national rate strengthens. Still, as mentioned earlier, the rate hike scenario was already built into the price movement, so the focus was on the Bank of England statement. Having produced the largest rate hike in nearly 30 years, the Bank of England suggested that it may be less decisive in raising rates in the coming months. The report also indicated that the UK would be in recession for more than a year under skyrocketing inflation, which caused traders to sell off the British currency yesterday.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2114, 1.2114, 1.2063, 1.1907, 1.1803
  • Resistance levels: 1.2167, 1.2209, 1.2294

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is now balanced and trading between the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy trades on the intraday time frames from the support level of 1.2114, but only with confirmation. Sell trades can be considered from the resistance level of 1.2167, but only after additional confirmation and with short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the 1.2063 support level and fixes below, the downtrend will likely resume.

GBP/USD
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 133.85
  • Prev Close: 132.92
  • % chg. over the last day: -0.70%

A Reuters poll of strategists showed that 61% of participants believe that the rise in the Japanese yen against the US dollar since mid-July has been temporary. According to analysts, the yen is unlikely to strengthen in the short term as the Bank of Japan remains the exception among global central banks with its ultra-easy monetary policy. At the same time, the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates and will not complete its increases cycle until 2023.

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 132.85, 132.12, 131.37, 130.85
  • Resistance levels: 134.05, 135.29, 136.03, 137.11

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the USD/JPY currency pair is bearish. But now the price has corrected to the average lines and is forming a balance. The MACD indicator has become inactive. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought from the support level of 132.85, but with additional confirmation. Resistance levels of 134.05 may be considered for sell deals, but only with additional confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 135.29, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/JPY
There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:
  • Prev Open: 1.2838
  • Prev Close: 1.2863
  • % chg. over the last day: +0.19%

Canada’s trade surplus widened in June, but the Canadian dollar fell yesterday amid falling oil prices. The Canadian dollar is a commodity currency as oil is one of Canada’s main exports. Therefore, the Canadian currency is under pressure as a wave of sales has swept the crude oil markets. With crude oil inventories rising as the summer auto season draws close, investors are betting that oil prices could fall further in the coming months, negatively affecting the Canadian (USD/CAD rise).

Trading recommendations
  • Support levels: 1.2832, 1.2803, 1.2786
  • Resistance levels: 1.2871, 1.2929, 1.3006, 1.3085, 1.3154

In terms of technical analysis, the USD/CAD currency pair trend is bearish. At the moment, the price is forming a wide balance. The MACD indicator became positive, and there was an initiative of buyers. Under such market conditions, it is better to consider sell deals from the resistance level of 1.2871 but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.2832, but only with confirmation and short targets.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the 1.2929 resistance level, the uptrend will likely resume.

USD/CAD
News feed for 2022.08.05:
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News
05 Aug

RBA raises inflation forecasts. Oil fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since February

By JustForex

The US stock indices traded without a single trend. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.41%.

The US Labor Department reported yesterday that about 260,000 people filed unemployment claims during the previous week, 6,000 more than the previous week. The Nonfarm Payrolls report today will also serve as an overview of the Federal Reserve’s likely path for monetary policy, as the Central Bank emphasized labor market strength as evidence that the economy remains resilient and capable of resisting further rate hikes.

Fed spokeswoman Loretta Mester said yesterday that she would like to see the rate rise to just above 4% at the end of the interest rate cycle. However, analysts predict that the Fed will stop at 3.5-3.75%. Mester added that the Fed could raise rates by 75 bps in September, but it could well be 50 bps, with the Committee guided by inflation and labor market data.

Coinbase stock jumped more than 40% yesterday. The cryptocurrency exchange announced a partnership agreement with BlackRock (BLK) to provide institutional clients access to cryptocurrency trading and storage services.

Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Thursday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.55%, French CAC 40 (FR40) jumped by 0.64%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.23%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on the rise by 0.03%.

The Bank of England raised its interest rate by 0.5% as expected. The rate is now at 1.75%, higher than the ECB (0.5%) but lower than the US Federal Reserve (2.5%), the Canadian Central Bank (2.5%), and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (2.5%). Having made its most significant rate hike in nearly 30 years, the Bank of England suggested that it may be less decisive in raising rates in the coming months. The report also indicates that under the weight of skyrocketing inflation, the UK will be in recession for more than a year.

Russia is beginning to drag out the process of launching the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. Moscow is demanding additional documents confirming that the equipment used in the repairs is not subject to sanctions. Thus, the energy problems in Europe are exacerbated.

On Thursday, US crude oil prices fell below $90 a barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine. The drop to its lowest level since February was driven by lingering fears that global growth slow would hurt oil demand. Fears of a recession intensified after the Bank of England warned of a prolonged recession and expectations of a one-year recession.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are ready to provide a “significant increase” in oil production only if winter’s global supply crisis worsens.

Gold prices reached their highest level a month after rising more than 1.5% yesterday. A weaker dollar helped support gold even as US Treasury yields rose.

Asian markets traded higher yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 0.69%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) jumped by 2.06%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.01%. Asian stock indices rebounded strongly after several declines, as strong earnings reports in the US boosted optimism about the corporate outlook. Investors in the region are preparing for a slew of earnings reports next week from Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean companies.

The Monetary Policy report from the RBA showed that Australia’s economy would slow down sharply soon due to a sharp rise in inflation. A full percentage point cut economic growth forecasts for this year to 3.25%, and for 2023 and 2024 by about a quarter point to 1.75%. The inflation forecast has also increased from 5.9% to 7.75%, requiring further interest rate increases.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,152.02 −3.15 (−0.076%)

Dow Jones (US30) 32,727.19 −85.31 (−0.26%)

DAX (DE40) 13,662.68 +75.12 (+0.55%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,448.06 +2.38 (+0.032%)

USD Index 105.69 −0.81 (−0.76%)

Important events for today:
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustForex

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News
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