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Software Firm’s Q2 FY23 Results Reflect Healthy Growth

This company serving the oil and gas industry grew revenue 14% over the last 12 months and is expected to continue the trend, noted an Echelon Capital Markets report.

Computer Modelling Group Ltd. (CMG:TSX; CMDXF:OTC), which develops and licenses simulation software for the oil and gas industry, posted Q2 FY23 results that beat Echelon Capital Markets and the Street’s projections, reported analyst Amr Ezzat in a November 10, 2022 research note.

After the Canadian tech firm released its quarterly results, Echelon increased some of its FY23 and FY24 estimates on the company to reflect the stronger growth in the annuity/maintenance (A&M) software licenses segment.

These changes boosted Echelon’s target price on Computer Modelling to CA$6.25 per share, up from CA$5.50. In comparison, the software firm’s current price is about CA$5.35 per share.

“The high-quality beat is characterized by recurring revenues growing at 14% year over year (YOY),” Echelon’s Ezzat highlighted. “The strong pick-up in growth is not a one-off.”

Ezzat pointed out that two factors should help Computer Modelling maintain its current growth momentum. One is new CEO Pramod Jain, likely requiring a more concerted effort going forward to increase revenues organically and organically.

The second is “the strong macroeconomic backdrop with higher oil prices.” Echelon rates the software firm Buy.

“The high-quality beat is characterized by recurring revenues growing at 14% year over year (YOY),” Echelon’s Ezzat highlighted. “The strong pick-up in growth is not a one-off.”

Proof of Growth

Computer Modelling’s A&M sales in all geographic locales accounted for about 80% of its total sales during Q2 FY23. At US$14.8 million (US$14.8M), A&M sales exceeded Echelon’s US$13.8M forecast and were 12% higher YOY. Standout regions were the U.S., where sales during the quarter increased by 20%, and the Eastern Hemisphere, where they grew by 15%.

Computer Modelling’s total Q2 FY23 sales were US$18.1M, a 13.4% increase over last year’s. The amount also surpassed Echelon and the Street’s forecasts of US$16.4M and US$16.6M, respectively.

Perpetual license sales amounted to $0.8M, better than Echelon’s US$0.4M estimate but worse YOY, by 7.8%. The professional services segment fared better, with US$2.5M in sales, up 32.9% YOY and better than Echelon’s US$2.2M projection.

Deferred revenues increased 13.8% YOY to US$24.2M and 4.1% quarter over quarter.

Adjusted Q2 FY23 EBITDA was US$8.8M (for a 48.8% margin), beating Echelon and the Street’s estimates of US$7M and US$7.3M, respectively. EBITDA included US$2.3M in charges for restructuring, but most of those changes should be done now, Ezzat noted. Total operating expenses were US$10.2M, 5.5% higher than last year’s US$9.7M.

Earnings per share were US$0.05, between Echelon’s US$0.04 and consensus’ US$0.06 forecasts.

Free cash flow was US$5.7M, up from Q2 FY22’s US$2.1M. The last 12 months of free cash flow amounted to US$25.9M, which exceeds the company’s US$16.1M dividend outlay.

At Q2 FY23’s end, Computer Modelling had US$56.9M in cash and no debt.

Disclosures:
1) Doresa Banning wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor. She or members of her household own securities of the following companies mentioned in the article: None. She or members of her household are paid by the following companies mentioned in this article: None.

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Disclosures For Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., Computer Modelling Group, November 10, 2022

Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is a member of IIROC and CIPF. The documents on this website have been prepared for the viewer only as an example of strategy consistent with our recommendations; it is not an offer to buy or sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security or instrument or to participate in any particular investing strategy. Any opinions or recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc.

Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. cannot accept any trading instructions via e-mail as the timely receipt of e-mail messages, or their integrity over the Internet, cannot be guaranteed.

Dividend yields change as stock prices change, and companies may change or cancel dividend payments in the future. All securities involve varying amounts of risk, and their values will fluctuate, and the fluctuation of foreign currency exchange rates will also impact your investment returns if measured in Canadian Dollars. Past performance does not guarantee future returns, investments may increase or decrease in value and you may lose money. Data from various sources were used in the preparation of these documents; the information is believed but in no way warranted to be reliable, accurate and appropriate. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. employees may buy and sell shares of the companies that are recommended for their own accounts and for the accounts of other clients. Echelon Wealth Partners compensates its Research Analysts from a variety of sources. The Research Department is a cost centre and is funded by the business activities of Echelon Wealth Partners including, Institutional Equity Sales and Trading, Retail Sales and Corporate and Investment Banking.

U.S. Disclosures: This research report was prepared by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc., a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund. This report does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any of the securities discussed herein. Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. is not registered as a broker-dealer in the United States and is not be subject to U.S. rules regarding the preparation of research reports and the independence of research analysts. Any resulting transactions should be effected through a U.S. broker-dealer.

ANALYST CERTIFICATION

Company: Computer Modelling Group| CMG:TSX

I, Amr Ezzat, hereby certify that the views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject securities or issuers. I also certify that I have not, am not, and will not receive, directly or indirectly, compensation in exchange for expressing the specific recommendations or views in this report.

Financial News Stock Market News

29 Nov

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.11.29

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0371
Prev Close: 1.0339
% chg. over the last day: -0.31 %

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed her hawkish side on Monday, pointing out that inflation is not yet at its peak, thus adding more uncertainty to what further action the ECB will take. Isabel Schnabel warned last week against further monetary tightening. At the same time, the ECB’s chief economist Philip Lane posted a dovish blog post on Friday, speaking out against aggressive rate hikes and higher wage growth this year as a sign of higher structural inflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0361, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0420, 1.0504

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading at the level of moving averages, and the MACD indicator is in the negative zone, indicating some weakness of the buyers. The price is adjusting. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0361, but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0421, but it is better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0194 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.29:

– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2054
Prev Close: 1.1954
% chg. over the last day: -0.83 %

Britain won’t meet its energy goals without tens of billions of pounds in additional funding for a new government program to make homes more energy efficient. Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy Minister Grant Shapps said Monday that the government would spend an additional 1 billion pounds ($1.2 billion) on a new plan to insulate homes in A to D council tax bands that people with lower to middle incomes typically own. Additional spending outside the announced budget will create negative investor sentiment.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.1945, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.2043, 1.2147, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading higher at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has become negative, and there is a slight sellers’ pressure inside the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.1945, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2043, but they are also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1800 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.29:

– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3).

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 139.25
Prev Close: 138.90
% chg. over the last day: -0.25 %

Japan’s unemployment rate remained at 2.6%. The number of people with jobs is up about half a million from a year ago, mainly due to growth in the hotel and medical sectors. While the numbers show that good working conditions will put upward pressure on wages, they still show that labor market tightness remains well below pre-pandemic levels. The numbers have not led to the wage growth sought by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has repeatedly said that Japan needs wages to grow at about 3% to meet the central bank’s 2% sustainable inflation target.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 137.65, 136.80
Resistance levels: 139.23, 140.75, 143.17, 145.16, 146.06, 147.34, 148.82, 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator has become inactive. The price is traded at the level of moving averages, and a narrow price range is formed. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be sought on the intraday time frames from the support level of 137.65, but only with confirmation, since the level has already been tested. Sell deals can be sought from the resistance level of 139.23, provided that there is a reversal or a false breakout.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.29:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+3);

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3390
Prev Close: 1.3494
% chg. over the last day: +0.77 %

Canada’s current account balance (seasonally adjusted) recorded an $11.1 billion deficit in the third quarter after a surplus in the first two quarters of 2022. This deficit mainly reflects a much lower surplus in goods and a higher deficit in investment income. Meanwhile, direct investment abroad exceeded direct investment in Canada, resulting in a net outflow of $12.9 billion. This is a negative sign for the Canadian dollar, which is now strengthening only due to rising oil prices.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3386, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3479, 1.3508, 1.3608, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. But the MACD indicator is in the positive zone, and there is buying pressure on the lower time frames inside the day. Sharp fluctuations in oil prices create big uncertainty in the price. The oil market is extremely tense right now due to the introduction of the price ceiling and the turmoil in China, the largest importer. For sell deals, it is best to consider the resistance level of 1.3479, but with confirmation. Buy trades are worth considering on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386, but also with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.29:

– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

29 Nov

Goldman Sachs dampened investor enthusiasm for 2023. Fed officials talk again about further tightening

By JustMarkets

The US indices fell on Monday due to pressure from Federal Reserve officials, who reiterated the need for higher rates for a more extended period. Civil unrest in China, amid intensifying Covid, also added to the negative sentiment. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.45%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.54%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.58%.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard said markets are “underestimating the risk that the FOMC will have to be aggressive for a longer period of time. The remarks followed comments by John Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, who reiterated that inflation remains too high. The remarks further dampened investor sentiment, leading to a rise in the dollar index and a decline in stock indices.

Goldman Sachs analysts dampened investor enthusiasm for 2023. In their report, the analysts warned that next year’s stock market dynamics would be characterized by “no growth in earnings per share (EPS), which will correspond to zero growth in the S&P 500 (US500). GS estimates that earnings per share for the S&P 500 will remain at $224 in&2023, and the index will end next year at $4,000 (up 1%). According to the investment bank, the “hard landing” recession scenario remains a “clear risk.”

Stock markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 1.09%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) lost 0.70%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) was down by 1.11%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 0.17% on Monday.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed her hawkish side on Monday, pointing out that inflation has not yet reached its peak, thus adding more uncertainty to what further action the ECB will take. Some ECB officials favor a 0.75% rate hike, while others insist on a 0.5% step so as not to affect the region’s economic performance so much.

Public protests against Covid blockades in China, the largest oil importer, have added to the already tense oil market. Protests in China put upward pressure on oil quotes, along with rumors that OPEC countries will consider new production cuts this week. On the other hand, the EU and allies are considering imposing a ceiling on oil prices from Russia to limit Russian revenues to finance the war with Ukraine. This situation puts downward pressure on oil prices. According to the Australian-New Zealand bank ANZ, the surge in new infections in China has reduced expected oil demand by at least one million barrels a day from the previous average.

Asian markets traded lower yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down by 0.42% for the day, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.57%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) decreased by 0.42% on Monday.

Analysts believe the protests in China could also prompt the government to eventually roll back its zero COVID policy, a largely positive scenario for the Chinese and broader Asian markets. But given that the country is struggling with a record-high daily increase in infections, the chances of being able to stop COVID-19 in the near future seem slim.

In Japan, the unemployment rate has remained at 2.6%. While the numbers show that good working conditions will put upward pressure on wages, they still show that labor market tensions remain well below pre-pandemic levels. These figures have not led to the wage growth sought by Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, who has repeatedly said that Japan needs wages to grow at around 3% in order to reach the central bank’s goal of 2% sustainable inflation. For the Bank of Japan to move away from its current adaptive policy, further labor market strengthening may be needed to encourage firms to raise wages faster.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday instructed his defense and finance ministers to secure funds to increase Japan’s defense budget to 2% of GDP. The Defense Ministry has said that 48 trillion yen will be needed over the next five years to improve the country’s defense capabilities amid China’s growing military might and North Korea’s missile development.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 3,963.94 −62.18 (−1.54%)

Dow Jones (US30) 33,849.46 −497.57 (−1.45%)

DAX (DE40) 14,383.36 −158.02 (−1.09%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,474.02 −12.65 (−0.17%)

USD Index 106.71 +0.76 (+0.71%)

Important events for today:

– Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+3);
– Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland GDP (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
– German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
– Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– UK BOE Gov Bailey Speaks at 17:00 (GMT+3);
– US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

29 Nov

Risk Sentiment Improves As China Rebounds

By ForexTime

Volatility could be the name of the game over the next few days due to the protests in China, speeches from Fed officials including Jerome Powell, and top-tier economic data.

Investors received a taster early this morning with Asian stocks rallying as Chinese shares rebounded from the heavy selloff triggered by unrest over Covid restrictions. Shares in the region were also supported by a rally in the property sector after China removed restrictions on developers selling stock to raise funds. European futures are pointing to a positive open amid the improving market mood in Asia. This renewed appetite for risk could find its way back to Wall Street as market jitters over the developments in China ease. In the currency space, the dollar fell along with Treasury yields while the euro hovered around the 200-day SMA at 1.0380. Gold prices rebounded during early trading helped by a weaker dollar, while oil prices jumped as speculation around more supply cuts by OPEC+ intensifies.

In Europe, the pending economic sentiment and consumer confidence figures for November could provide insight into the health of the European economy. The euro may find itself under renewed pressure if these reports fail to meet expectations. However, the key focus falls on the German inflation figures scheduled to be released today and then for the wider region on Wednesday. Inflation in Europe is expected to remain at elevated levels, with the CPI projected to ease slightly from a record high of 10.6% in October.

All eyes on Fed Chair Powell

Dollar bulls were injected with renewed inspiration on Monday thanks to hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials. Perennial hawk Bullard said he believed “markets are underpricing a little bit the risk that the FOMC will have to be more aggressive rather than less”. New York Fed President Williams struck a softer tone but also said he saw the rate path higher.

Regardless of recent gains, the greenback could find itself under fresh selling pressure not only due to the improving market mood, but if Powell reinforces expectations over the central bank slowing its pace of interest rate increases in a speech scheduled for Wednesday. Much attention will also be directed toward the PCE Core Deflator on Thursday which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. Any signs of cooling inflation will most likely fortify expectations around the Fed adopting a less aggressive approach toward rates.

Friday could be the main market shaker as all eyes turn to the monthly US non-farm payrolls report. The US economy is expected to have created 200,000 jobs in October with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7%. A report that meets or prints below expectations may justify a change in the pace of the Fed’s policy tightening, ultimately weakening the dollar further.

Talking technicals, the DXY remains under pressure on the daily charts. A move back below 106.00 could encourage a decline toward the 200-day SMA around 105.30. Below this point, the next level of interest can be found at 104.50.

Currency spotlight – EURUSD

This is bound to be a volatile trading week for the EURUSD thanks to the numerous key risk events in Europe and the United States.

With the Eurozone inflation figures and Powell’s speech on Wednesday, the US PCE deflator and US ISM on Thursday, topped off with the US jobs report on Friday, this could be a rollercoaster week for the EURUSD. Looking at the technical picture, the currency pair is bullish on the daily charts but remains capped around the 200-day SMA. A solid daily close above 1.0450, followed by a move towards 1.0500 could signal that bulls remain in control. Alternatively, a selloff towards 1.0300 could result in a move to 1.0190 and 1.0100.

Commodity spotlight – Gold

Gold is waiting for a fresh fundamental spark to get its gears moving and this could come in the form of speeches from Fed officials, geopolitical risks, or key US economic data such as the NFP.

The precious metal remains in a wide range on the daily charts with support at $1735 and resistance at $1785. However, with the fundamentals slowly tilting in favour of gold bulls, a solid breakout could be around the corner. In the meantime, prices are trading above the 50-day and 100-day SMA but below the 200-day SMA. A solid breakout above $1785 could open the doors toward $1800 and $1840. Should prices slip back below $1735, this may result in a selloff towards $1700.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

28 Nov

Ichimoku Cloud Analysis 28.11.2022 (GBPUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD)

By RoboForex.com

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

The quotes are pushing off the support level, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 1.1935, followed by growth to 1.2475. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 1.1565, which will indicate further falling to 1.1475.

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

The pair is getting ready to break through the support level, going under the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests a downtrend. A test of the Kijun-Sen line is expected at 139.40, followed by falling to 133.65. An additional signal confirming the decline will be a bounce off the upper border of the descending channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the upper border of the Cloud and securing above 142.55, which will entail further growth to 143.45.

AUDUSD, “Australian Dollar vs US Dollar”

The pair is correctimg by a Triangle pattern, going above the Ichimoku Cloud, which suggests an uptrend. A test of the upper border of the Cloud is expected at 0.6635, followed by growth to 0.7015. An additional signal confirming the growth will be a bounce off the lower border of the bullish channel. The scenario can be cancelled by a breakaway of the lower border of the Cloud and securing under 0.6545, which will indicate further falling to 0.6455. The growth can be confirmed by a breakaway of the upper border of the Triangle pattern and securing above 0.6805.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Nov

Murrey Math Lines 28.11.2022 (EURUSD, GBPUSD)

By RoboForex.com

EURUSD, “Euro vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, which signifies an uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. Currently, we should expect the quotes to rise over 5/8 (1.0376) and grow to the resistance level of 6/8 (1.0498). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakaway of the support level of 4/8 (1.0253). In this case, the pair may drop to 3/8 (1.0131).

On M15, the upper line of VoltyChannel is too far away from the current price, so growth can only be pointed on by a breakaway of 5/8 (1.0376) on H4.

GBPUSD, “Great Britain Pound vs US Dollar”

On H4, the quotes remain in the overbought area. The RSI has escaped the overbought area and continues declining. We should expect a downward breakaway of +1/8 (1.1962) and subsequent falling to the support level of 8/8 (1.1718). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance at +2/8 (1.2207), which will entail reshuffling of the Murrey grid, so that new goals will be set.

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away, which increases the probability of price falling to 8/8 (1.1718) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Nov

Crude Oil Started with Crash

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Crude oil market started the new week with sales. A Brent barrel is falling to 81.40 USD.

The worst of the news comes from China. The Chinese are rebelling against tough anti-coronavirus measures and lockdowns imposed by the government due to many new cases of COVID-19. The situation generates points of uncertainty because it is yet unclear how the Chinese authorities will react and how it all ends.

The issue with the maximum price level for Russian oil also keeps the market nervous.

According to Baker Hughes, the number of active oil rigs in the US increased last week by 4, reaching 627.

On H4, Brent has completed a wave of decline to 81.05. Today a consolidation range may form around it. With an escape upwards, a correction link to 89.09 might form. Then a link of decline to 78.78 and even 78.25 becomes possible. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD. Its signal line is at the lows, preparing to grow to zero.

On H1, Brent has formed a consolidation range around 85.00. Today with an escape downwards, a local goal of the declining wave has been reached at 81.05. With an escape upwards, a pathway up to 85.00 will open (a test from below). Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is under 20, headed straight upwards. The indicator is expected to grow to 50.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

28 Nov

The Analytical Overview of the Main Currency Pairs on 2022.11.28

By JustMarkets

The EUR/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.0409
Prev Close: 1.0391
% chg. over the last day: -0.17 %

Many European countries will update their inflation data this week. This data, along with the labor market report, will give more clarity to ECB officials on which rate hike step to choose at the December meeting. Some ECB officials are leaning towards a 50 basis point hike, while others are leaning towards a 75 bps hike. If this week’s data shows that inflationary pressures are at least not increasing, no doubt the ECB will favor the 0.5% step. Economists expect all economies except Spain to show a slowdown in inflation.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.0340, 1.0284, 1.0193, 1.0092, 1.0043, 0.9968
Resistance levels: 1.0408, 1.0504

The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. But the price is trading below the moving averages, and the MACD indicator is negative again. The price is adjusting. Buy trades are best considered from the support level of 1.0340 but with additional confirmation. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0408, but better with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down through the support level of 1.0194 and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

News feed for 2022.11.28:

– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

The GBP/USD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.2109
Prev Close: 1.2092
% chg. over the last day: -0.14 %

The Bank of England will release several financial reports this week, including consumer credit, secured lending, and mortgage approvals. Several business reports will also be released, including the CBI distribution trade survey. Sales data showed that Britons spent less money on Black Friday than last year, even though the number of transactions was up 3.2%. Energy-saving products led purchases as Britons look to save money on their energy bills.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.2043, 1.1945, 1.1684, 1.1476, 1.1418, 1.1172, 1.1093, 1.0915, 1.0817
Resistance levels: 1.2147, 1.2167

From the technical point of view, the trend on the GBP/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The price is trading higher at the level of the moving averages. The MACD indicator has turned negative, and there is slight sellers’ pressure during the day. Under such market conditions, it is better to look for buy deals from the support level of 1.2043, but with confirmation. Sell trades are best sought on intraday time frames from resistance levels of 1.2147 or 1.2167, but they are also better with confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks down of the 1.1800 support level and fixes below it, the downtrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/JPY currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 138.57
Prev Close: 139.13
% chg. over the last day: +0.40 %

The situation on the currency pair USD/JPY remains the same. The Bank of Japan intends to keep its monetary policy soft till spring 2023, while the US Federal Reserve is on the path of tightening and plans at least two more interest rate hikes. The difference between the rates will put negative pressure on the Japanese Yen, so fundamentally, it is too early to expect a reversal in the USD/JPY.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 138.50, 137.65, 136.80
Resistance levels: 140.75, 143.17, 145.16, 146.06, 147.34, 148.82, 150.00

From the technical point of view, the medium-term trend on the currency pair USD/JPY is bearish. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but the sellers’ strength is insignificant. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be searched for on intraday time frames from the support level of 138.50, but only with confirmation. Sell deals can be searched from the resistance level of 140.75 under the condition of a reverse reaction or a false breakdown.

Alternative scenario: If the price fixes above 145.84, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

The USD/CAD currency pair

Technical indicators of the currency pair:

Prev Open: 1.3337
Prev Close: 1.3377
% chg. over the last day: +0.30 %

The Bank of Canada and the US Federal Reserve have taken an aggressive stance on interest rate increases this year in an attempt to stem rampant inflation. On the one hand, the result of this policy has been a slowdown in inflation indicators. On the other hand, economic indicators have fallen. The Bank of Canada’s upcoming interest rate decision in December will depend on key data such as the latest employment data and wage trends to be released this week. For now, analysts are predicting that the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates by 0.25% in December before taking a pause.

Trading recommendations

Support levels: 1.3386, 1.3281, 1.3212
Resistance levels: 1.3458, 1.3508, 1.3608, 1.3682, 1.3776, 1.3855

From the point of view of technical analysis, the trend on the USD/CAD currency pair is bearish. The price has corrected to the support levels. But the MACD indicator is in the positive zone. On the lower time frames inside the day, purchases are observed. The best way to sell is to consider the resistance level of 1.3458, but with confirmation. Buy trades should be considered on the lower time frames from the support level of 1.3386, but also with additional confirmation.

Alternative scenario: if the price breaks out and consolidates above the resistance level of 1.3508, the uptrend will likely resume.

There is no news feed for today.

By JustMarkets

Financial News Forex and Currency News

28 Nov

Sales in the United States on Black Friday reached a record high, despite high inflation

By JustMarkets

At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.45% (+2.20% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.03% (+1.51% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.52% on Friday (-0.27% for the week).

According to Adobe Analytics, online sales in the US reached a record $9 billion on Black Friday, despite high inflation. Adobe Analytics measures e-commerce by analyzing transactions on Websites and has access to data on purchases at 85% of the top 100 online stores in the United States. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to also be the biggest online shopping day of the season. Record spending by Americans will undoubtedly be reflected in earnings in companies’ Q4 reports.

The US regulators banned Huawei Technologies Co. and ZTE Corp. from selling electronics in the United States, saying they pose security risks. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) also banned suppliers such as Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co., Dahua Technology Co., and two-way radio manufacturer Hytera Communications Corp.

Finance Canada has modeled various fiscal projections in light of recent developments, such as persistent inflationary pressures and ongoing monetary policy changes that could affect the country’s short-term growth outlook. This scenario indicates that inflation-which is currently at 6.9%-will become more deeply entrenched, forcing central banks to raise interest rates more than initially expected. Financial officials predict that if there is a “hard landing” of the economy, inflation will remain persistently high through 2023 and remain above 3% through the first quarter of 2024, reaching the Bank of Canada’s 2% target by the end of 2024. This would push the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates to 4.5% in the first half of next year (currently at 3.75%) and push Canada into a mild recession in the first quarter of next year.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly up last week. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.01% (+1.01% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added +0.08% (+1.32% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.34% (+3.89% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed on Friday up by 0.27% (+1.37% for the week).

German GDP data for the third quarter was revised upward. Growth was 0.4% q/q. However, the latest surveys show that despite an increase in business activity, the economy is slowing down and might contract this quarter.

The price of Russian offshore oil should be capped at $30 to $40 a barrel, below the level proposed by the G7 countries, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy said Saturday. European Union governments, seeking to limit Moscow’s ability to finance the war in Ukraine without causing an oil supply shock, disagree on setting an upper limit. At the moment, the range of $65-70 per barrel is being considered. Restrictions are due to take effect on December 5, although there is still no decision. Last week, Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister reiterated his support for the OPEC+ cuts, which are set to continue until the end of 2023, and noted that the bloc remains ready to step in when necessary to balance supply and demand. With the group’s OPEC meeting coming up next week, tensions in the oil market will be prohibitive this week.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) increased by 0.98% for the week, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.46%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.24%.

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya said Sunday that the Central Bank would conduct an annual survey of financial institutions and companies looking for ways to support the country’s growing climate finance market. The initial survey showed “high demand” in Japan for green bonds and other debt instruments related to environmental protection, social protection, and governance (ESG).

China’s overall industrial profits declined between January and October as the COVID-19 outbreak restrained economic activity. Profits fell in 22 of China’s 41 major industries.

Protests have broken out in China. Chinese protesters clashed with police in several major cities over the weekend amid growing public discontent with the government’s strict measures to combat COVID. A deadly fire in Urumqi linked to quarantine measures sparked a wave of protests across the country. The unrest now has the potential to stall further China’s economic growth, which is already suffering from the country’s strict measures against COVID this year. China is also struggling with a record-high daily increase in COVID-19 cases.

In the commodities market, futures on natural gas (+14.55%), coffee (+6.06%), orange juice (+4.57%), and silver (+2.3%) showed the biggest gains over the week. Futures on palladium (-4.65%), WTI oil (-4.44%), cotton (-4.31%), Brent oil (-4.23%), sugar (-3.84%), and wheat (-3.56%) showed the biggest drop.

S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,026.12 −1.14 (−0.028%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,347.03 +152.97 (+0.45%)

DAX (DE40) 14,541.38 +1.82 (+0.013%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,486.67 +20.07 (+0.27%)

USD Index 106.06 -0.01 (-0.01%)

Important events for today:

– Australia RBA Gov Lowe Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
– Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

Economics & Fundamentals Financial News

23 Nov

Murrey Math Lines 23.11.2022 (USDJPY, USDCAD)

By RoboForex.com

USDJPY, “US Dollar vs Japanese Yen”

On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, which indicates the prevalence of a downtrend. The RSI has broken through the ascending trendline downwards. As a result, we should expect a test of 2/8 (140.62), a breakaway, and falling to the support level of 1/8 (139.06). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 3/8 (142.18). In this case, the pair may rise to 4/8 (143.75).

On M15, a breakaway of the lower line of VoltyChannel will increase the probability of a decline.

USDCAD, “US Dollar vs Canadian Dollar”

The situation with the USDCAD pair is similar. On H4, the quotes are under the 200-day Moving Average, and the RSI has broken through the ascending trendline. A breakaway of 1/8 (1.3305) is expected, followed by falling to 0/8 (1.3183). The scenario can be cancelled by rising over the resistance level of 2/8 (1.3427). In this case, the pair may reach 3/8 (1.3549).

On M15, the lower line of VoltyChannel is broken away. This indicates a downtrend and a high probability of further falling.

Article By RoboForex.com

Financial News Forex and Currency News

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