RoboMarkets, a brokerage company that provides financial markets trading services to European clients, has won the Safest European Broker 2023 title. This award was presented at the prestigious London Trader Show 2023 event in London.
The London Trader Show (formerly the London Forex Show) has been running every year since 2010. It is one of the most important events for the industry in Europe and the UK, providing investors and traders with the opportunity to interact with industry peers and gain new knowledge. A variety of training sessions and hands-on workshops are organised as part of this one-day event.
The highlight of the show’s programme is the awarding of The London Trader Show Awards 2023. During the voting, which was conducted on the organiser’s official website until 28 February 2023, everyone could take a poll and vote for their favourites in the 8 nominated categories.
How does RoboMarkets Ltd protect its clients’ funds?
Protection against negative balance
RoboMarkets clients can have peace of mind thanks to negative balance protection, as they can be sure they will not be charged more than they intended to invest in any case.
Membership in the Investor Compensation Fund (ICF)
The fund provides insured clients of CySEC-registered companies with compensation of up to €20,000.
Market-leading insurance policy
RoboMarkets has taken additional steps to protect its obligations to clients and third parties for up to €2,500,000 through a public liability insurance policy for brokerage companies. This programme includes market-leading insurance coverage for risks that can lead to financial losses for clients, such as fraud, omissions, negligence, errors and others.
About RoboMarkets
RoboMarkets is a financial brokerage company licensed by CySEC, operating under licence number 191/13. It provides access to more than 3,000 stocks and other instruments. Trading is performed using the latest technology and proprietary products on the MetaTrader 4, MetaTrader 5, R MobileTrader, R StocksTrader and R WebTrader platforms. View more information about the company’s products and services on www.robomarkets.com.
“Risk Warning: CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 69.88% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.”
Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe, but because it’s so reactive, it isn’t found on its own in nature. Instead, it is typically bound to other atoms and molecules in water, natural gas, coal and even biological matter like plants and human bodies.
Hydrogen can be isolated, however. And on its own, the H₂ molecule packs a heavy punch as a highly effective energy carrier.
Hydrogen can also be used to generate electricity with lower greenhouse gas emissions than coal or natural gas power plants. That potential is getting more attention as the U.S. government prepares new rules that would require existing power plants to cut their carbon dioxide emissions.
Because it can be stored, H₂ could help overcome intermittency issues associated with renewable power sources like wind and solar. It can also be blended with natural gas in existing power plants to reduce the plant’s emissions.
Using hydrogen in power plants can reduce carbon dioxide emissions when either blended or alone in specialized turbines, or in fuel cells, which consume H₂ and oxygen, or O₂, to produce electricity, heat and water. But it’s typically not entirely CO₂-free. That’s in part because isolating H₂ from water or natural gas takes a lot of energy.
How is hydrogen produced?
There are a few common ways to produce H₂:
Electrolysis can isolate hydrogen by splitting water – H₂O – into H₂ and O₂ using an electric current.
Methane reforming uses steam to split methane, or CH₄, into H₂ and CO₂. Oxygen and steam or CO₂ can also be used for this splitting process.
Gasification transforms hydrocarbon-based materials – including biomass, coal or even municipal waste – into synthesis gas, an H₂-rich gas that can be used as a fuel either on its own or as a precursor for producing chemicals and liquid fuels.
Each has benefits and drawbacks.
Green, blue, gray – what do the colors mean?
Hydrogen is often described by colors to indicate how clean, or CO₂-free, it is. The cleanest is green hydrogen.
Green H₂ is produced using electrolysis powered by renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar or hydropower. While green hydrogen is completely CO₂-free, it is costly, at around US$4-$9 per kilogram ($2-$4 per pound) because of the high energy required to split water.
Other less energy-intensive techniques can produce H₂ at a lower cost, but they still emit greenhouse gases.
Gray H₂ is the most common type of hydrogen. It is made from natural gas through methane reforming. This process releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere and costs around $1-$2.50 per kilogram (50 cents-$1 per pound).
If gray hydrogen’s CO₂ emissions are captured and locked away so they aren’t released into the atmosphere, it can become blue hydrogen. The costs are higher, at around $1.50-$3 per kilogram (70 cents-$1.50 per pound) to produce, and greenhouse gas emissions can still escape when the natural gas is produced and transported.
Over 95% of the H₂ produced in the U.S. today is gray hydrogen made with natural gas, which still emits greenhouse gases.
Whether H₂ can ramp up as a natural gas alternative for the power industry and other uses, such as for transportation, heating and industrial processes, will depend on the availability of low-cost renewable energy for electrolysis to generate green H₂.
Without the infrastructure, H₂ use won’t grow quickly. It’s a modern-day version of “Which came first, the chicken or the egg?” Continued use of fossil fuels for H₂ production could spur investment in H₂ infrastructure, but using fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases.
Policies like Europe’s greenhouse gas emissions limits and the 2022 U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax credits up to $3 per kilogram ($1.36 per pound) of H₂, could help make cleaner hydrogen more competitive.
Hydrogen demand is projected to increase up to two to four times its current level by 2050. For that to be green H₂ would require significant amounts of renewable energy at the same time that new solar, wind and other renewable energy power plants are being built to provide electricity directly to the power sector.
While green hydrogen is a promising trend, it is not the only solution to meeting the world’s energy needs and carbon-free energy goals. A combination of renewable energy sources and clean H₂, including blue, green or turquoise, will likely be necessary to meet the world’s energy needs in a sustainable way.
China is increasingly expanding its gold reserves and ditching the dollar in moves that could have implications for your investments, warns the CEO and founder of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations.
The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as it is revealed that China’s gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April, according to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Total gold stockpiles reached 2,076 tons after the nation added 120 tons in the five months through March.
He says: “Historically, China has been a major buyer of US Treasuries, but this has seen a markedly cooling off as Beijing swaps them out in favour of gold.
“During the last few years, the US has digitally been adding an unprecedented amount of dollars to the US economy which, of course, has the effect of devaluing the greenback over time, potentially making it less of an attractive investment for China, and others.”
“It can also be reasonably expected that this strategic move will limit its dependence on the dollar, as trade and political relations with the US deteriorate further.”
The deVere CEO continues: “Buying gold rather than dollars may also signal moves by China that it is eventually seeking to replace the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
“Building stocks of the precious metal and allowing the Chinese yuan to be traded freely would weaken the US dollar’s dominance as the global reserve currency. The move would have enormous implications, making it more expensive for the US government to borrow money and potentially to run perpetual trade and budget deficits.
“The US is used to having the privileged position of having the key reserve currency, but others are eager to take over it.”
Oil is one of the most important and widely traded commodities in the world, and it has traditionally been priced and traded in US dollars. This has given the US dollar a dominant role in global financial markets, as countries that want to purchase oil must first acquire US dollars in order to do so.
As a reserve currency, the dollar is the default for international transactions. For example, an Indian company wants to buy wine from Spain, it’s probable that they will carry out the transaction in dollars. Both companies must then purchase dollars to conduct their business, fuelling greater demand.
The value of global commodities, such as oil, is also generally demarcated in US dollars.
“If oil trading were to shift away from the US dollar, it would dramatically reduce the demand for US dollars, which would lead to a decrease in the value of the US currency. This could have a number of ripple effects throughout the global economy, including hugely increased inflation in the United States and potentially destabilising effects on financial markets,” notes Nigel Green.
With the dollar seemingly losing some of its traditional dominance, investment portfolios could be impacted and might need to be repositioned to seize the opportunities and sidestep the risks.
“As ever, the key will be to seek professional advice from an advisor and to ensure that your portfolio is properly diversified across asset classes, sectors, regions, and currencies.”
He goes on to add that: “Stock markets outside the US, particularly those in emerging markets, typically perform well when the dollar is weaker.
“US large caps and multinationals are also likely to do well as much of their profits are generated in countries where the currencies are becoming stronger.
“Sectors that can be expected to do well with a weaker greenback include energy and industrial commodities because they are traded in dollars and, therefore, as the dollar declines, they become less expensive for non-US-based buyers.
“Tech should also do relatively well, as much of the revenue also comes from outside the United States.”
Nigel Green concludes: “The strategic move by China to increasingly buy more gold and less US dollars could, in the longer-term, have a significant effect on the global financial system and investment planning.”
About:
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.
At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.17%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.46%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.63% on Tuesday. Discussions over the US debt limit dampened investor sentiment as there was no progress on preventing a US default before the anticipated June 1 deadline.
President Joe Biden will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy today. Both politicians face the need to reach an agreement on the debt ceiling, or else the US will face default as early as June 1. McCarthy is pushing for spending cuts and deficit reduction in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, while Biden wants it raised as a condition for any budget negotiations.
According to a new poll, public confidence in Jerome Powell’s leadership of the Federal Reserve has plummeted and is now at or below the level of his predecessors. A Gallup poll released Tuesday found that 36% of Americans believe they have confidence that the Federal Reserve chairman will do or recommend the right thing for the economy. That’s down from 37% for Janet Yellen during her first year at the helm of the Fed in 2014. Confidence in the Fed usually follows the state of the economy. President Joe Biden has 35% American confidence in the economy, the lowest of any president since George W. Bush got 34% during the 2008 financial crisis.
Shares of PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) fell more than -11% as the payments company cut its annual transaction margin forecast. Shares of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) jumped more than 23% yesterday after the analyst company reported better-than-expected first-quarter results and said it expects earnings in every quarter this year.
Stock markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) added 0.02%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.59% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) fell by 0.31%, and the British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed lower by 0.18% on Tuesday. The International Monetary Fund is still concerned about the recent turmoil in the banking sector and believes the risk of a banking crisis remains.
The Bank of England’s monetary policy meeting is due tomorrow. Inflation in the UK is much higher than in the United States and Europe, so the Bank of England will seek to reduce inflationary pressures. Markets expect the Bank of England to raise the interest rate by 0.25% from 4.25% to 4.5%, marking the twelfth consecutive rate hike since December 2021. The Bank of England’s final interest rate is expected to be 4.85% by September 2023.
Crude oil prices rose for the third straight session amid reports that the Biden administration will cancel the remaining withdrawals from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and instead add to it a volume that could reach 200 million barrels. Before the news, oil prices were declining yesterday due to weak data from China. China’s imports fell sharply in April, while exports rose more slowly than expected, adding to signs of a slower-than-expected economic recovery for the world’s biggest crude oil importer. There had been high hopes for the Chinese economy that demand for crude oil would rise sharply in the second quarter, but so far, this has not been seen.
Asian markets traded yesterday without a single trend. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 1.01% on the day, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) decreased by 0.55% yesterday, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) was down by 2.12%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) added 0.01%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was down by 0.17%.
Real wages in Japan fell for the twelfth consecutive month in March as consumer inflation outpaced nominal wage growth. Large companies negotiated wage increases at labor talks in March, and whether this trend spreads to small businesses depends on the outlook for the normalization of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan under new Governor Kazuo Ueda. Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of household purchasing power, fell by 2.9% in March from a year earlier, following the same rate of decline in February.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,119.17 −18.95 (−0.46%)
Dow Jones (US30)33,561.81 −56.88 (−0.17%)
DAX (DE40) 15,955.48 +2.65 (+0.017%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,764.09 −14.29 −0.18%)
USD Index 101.65 +0.27 +0.27%
Important events for today:
– Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
– US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
– Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Progress in slowing down US inflation is likely to have stalled, the consumer price index report is expected to show tomorrow – but the Federal Reserve must “resist the temptation” for further interest rate hikes.
This is the warning from Nigel Green, the founder and CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, ahead of the release of US inflation data on Wednesday that will play a key role in shaping the Fed’s interest rate plans moving forward.
He says: “We expect that The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday will show higher prices for core goods – fuelled by rising prices of vehicles – which will have the effect of counteracting cooling prices more generally.
“In addition, America’s employers added a sizeable 253,000 jobs in April, showing that the labor market is still surprisingly resilient.
“All this, we believe, will act as a spur to the Federal Reserve to raise rates again at their next meeting in June, after having hiked them last week to a range of 5 to 5.25%, its tenth increase in 14 months, and the highest since 2006.
“I would urge the US central bank to resist the temptation to do so.
“Rate hikes are a blunt instrument as they function by taking the heat down across the board, meaning parts of the US economy, which is already slowing, are likely to get broken.”
The deVere CEO continues: “US inflation has been coming down each month since it hit 9.1% in June 2022.
“We expect headline CPI will come in at an annual rate of 5% for April – the same as in March – meaning that progress to bring down US inflation would have stalled.
“Let’s hope this isn’t a trigger for the Fed to continue on with its rate hike agenda.”
Nigel Green cited three reasons why he believes the US central bank was wrong to have raised rates last week and why it would be wrong to do so next time too.
“First, the crisis within the US financial system is still not over. There remain serious and legitimate concerns that after a string of bank failures, there could be more to come,” he noted.
“The turmoil from the banking crisis is leading to a drop in bank lending, tightening the credit conditions for households and businesses. In turn, this will inevitably lead to a slowdown in economic activity and hiring.
“The Fed’s interest rate hiking agenda has tightened financial conditions which, in part, led to the banking crisis, and now the banking crisis itself is going to put the squeeze on financial conditions even more.
“Second, the time lag for monetary policies is very long. It is said that it takes about 18 months to two years for the full effect of rate hikes to filter fully into the economy.
“Third, the bond market is suggesting a long and/or deep recession with its inverted yield curve. Yields are inversely related to bond prices.”
This is typically the sign of a coming recession – an inverted yield curve has emerged roughly a year before nearly all recessions since 1960.
He concludes: “Investors will pour over the data for clues on the Fed’s policy path on interest rates.
“Regarding the central bank’s future plans, investors will likely be hoping for the best but fearing the worst.”
About:
deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients. It has a network of more than 70 offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.
The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.17% at Friday’s close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.18% on Monday.
Goldman Sachs joins Barclays in predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly this year. But the latest futures position data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that hedge funds expect the Fed to keep rates higher longer.
A report from the New York Federal Reserve showed Monday that bank stresses that began in March had little impact on American sentiment. The Federal Reserve regional bank reported in its April survey of consumer expectations that respondents forecast inflation after one year at 4.4%, up from 4.7% in the March survey. The report also showed that respondents’ perceptions of the current financial situation improved in April, while their expectations for the year worsened. Respondents indicated they expect unemployment to rise and to be more likely to lose their jobs, as well as difficulty finding a new job.
The PacWest stock jumped by 5% on Monday. The company announced a dividend cut from 25 cents to 1 cent per share late Friday night. PacWest CEO Paul Taylor assured investors that the bank’s business remains “fundamentally sound.” Concerns about regional banks have not subsided since regulators took over the First Republic last week, leading to the US bank’s third collapse since early March. Rapidly rising interest rates have put pressure on banks with long-term bonds, causing deposit outflows.
Stock markets in Europe were mostly up on Monday. Germany’s DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.05%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.11% yesterday, Spain’s IBEX 35 index (ES35) was up 0.70%, Britain’s FTSE 100 (UK100) was not trading Monday.
The European Central Bank should keep raising interest rates amid “too high” core inflation levels, ECB Governing Council spokesman Klaas Knot said over the weekend. The ECB will have to raise borrowing costs “until core inflation is suppressed.” Last week, the eurozone central bank raised its deposit rate by a quarter point to 3.25%, and ECB President Christine Lagarde also signaled that more interest rate hikes are likely.
Oil prices are up more than 2% as recession fears begin to fade. Fears of a recession are easing the risks of lower demand. Typically, oil demand rises in the run-up to summer as more travel occurs. And with OPEC+ countries still cutting production on a daily basis, black gold prices are projected to rise for the next three months. Analysts at Commerzbank say concerns about oil demand are exaggerated and expect prices to rise in the coming weeks.
Asian markets were mostly on the rise yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) declined by 0.71%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) jumped by 1.17%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) added 1.24% over the day, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) increased by 1.08%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.78%.
Continued soft monetary policy from the Bank of Japan is fueling a rally in Japanese markets, with the Nikkei 225 largely outperforming its global peers on the prospect of soft monetary conditions.
China’s latest trade balance data showed an increase in exports and a drop in imports. This suggests that local demand remains weak, which may prevent a more significant economic recovery this year. The prospect of weak demand in China does not bode well for Asian markets, which depend on the country as an export destination.
Australia recorded its first budget surplus in 15 years as its treasury was bolstered by unanticipated tax revenue from higher commodity prices and wages. The budget projected a small surplus of about A$4 billion ($2.71 billion) for the fiscal year ending in June. At the same time, deficit estimates for subsequent years have been revised downward.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,138.12 +1.87 (+0.045%)
Dow Jones (US30)33,618.69 −55.69 (−0.17%)
DAX (DE40) 15,952.83 −8.19 (−0.051%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,778.38 +75.74 (+0.98%)
USD Index 101.41 +0.20 +0.19%
Important events for today:
– Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
– China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
– US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
Asian markets were a mixed bag on Tuesday as caution kicked in ahead of tomorrow’s key US inflation report, although Chinese shares rose after export data beat market expectations. European futures are pointing to a positive open despite the mixed sentiment, with UK financial markets reopening after a public holiday. In the currency arena, the dollar has entered standby mode ahead of talks between US President Joe Biden and congressional leaders on the debt-ceiling issue. The yen is dominating the G10 space this morning after the new BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned that the central bank could drop its yield curve control policy if inflation reaches its 2% goal. Looking at commodities, gold is limping higher but clearly struggling to nurse the deep wounds inflicted by last Friday’s strong NFP report.
US CPI report in focus
After last Friday’s hot jobs report that saw the US economy create 253,000 jobs in April, much attention will be directed towards the pending inflation data for fresh clues on the Fed’s policy path.
It is worth keeping in mind that even though the Fed signaled a pause in further rate increases, it also left the door open to further tightening if incoming data warrants. Traders are currently pricing in a 49% probability of a 25-basis point cut at the September Fed meeting, according to Fed funds futures. CPI year-on-year is expected to rise 5.0% which would be the slowest pace in almost 2 years while core CPI is forecast to cool to 5.5% from the 5.6% in the prior month.
Looking at the technical picture, the Dollar Index (DXY) remains trapped within a range on the daily charts. Resistance can be found around 102.30 while support is at 101.00. A breakout could be on the horizon with the help of a potent catalyst. If prices slip below 101.00, the next level of interest can be found at 100.80. A rebound from 101.00 may trigger a move up towards 102.30.
Currency spotlight – GBPUSD
Could GBPUSD be gearing up for further upside after jumping to a fresh 2023 high on Monday? Well, it looks like bulls are taking a breather ahead of the US CPI data on Wednesday and BoE decision on Thursday. Markets widely expect the BoE to hike interest rates by 25 basis points with much focus on the minutes, quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), and Governor Bailey’s press conference. Looking at the technical picture, GBPUSD could rally to fresh 2023 highs if BoE hawks dominate the scene with key levels of interest found at 1.2730 and 1.2870 where the 200-week SMA resides.
Commodity Spotlight – Gold
Gold drifted higher on Tuesday as investors braced for the US inflation report mid-week. After being whacked by last Friday’s solid US jobs report which raised the odds of the Fed keeping rates higher for longer, the precious metal could sink further if US inflation remains sticky. Such a development may drag gold back below the $2015 level with bears eyeing the psychological $2000. Alternatively, signs of cooling inflation could inject gold bulls with renewed confidence, propelling prices back toward $2045 and 2023 high at $2063.
At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.65% (-1.30% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.85% (-0.73% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Friday (+0.21% for the week). Investor fears that the economy is headed for a recession in the second half of the year bolstered bets that interest rates will soon decline.
Friday’s data showed that the US economy added 253,000 jobs (forecast +181,000). The unemployment rate fell from 3.5% to 3.4%. The unexpected rise in US hiring and payrolls last month makes it more likely that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high longer and possibly keep the possibility of an 11th straight hike in June.
St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Friday that he is willing to be “open-minded” about whether to raise rates or leave them unchanged at the Fed’s June meeting, joining the “data-dependent” position. Bullard said he thinks the 5% to 5.25% rate level reached this week is still at the “lower end” of what might be needed; his own projections suggest that rates may need to rise another half a point for inflation to decline steadily. The US inflation data in the coming week will give an indication of whether the Federal Reserve can halt its series of interest rate hikes at next month’s meeting.
Deposits at US commercial banks fell to their lowest level in nearly two years by the end of April, data released Friday by the Federal Reserve showed. Total lending by banks rose, driven by record levels of outstanding loans and leases.
Equity markets in Europe were mostly up on Friday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.44% (+0.48% for the week), French CAC 40 (FR40) added 1.26% on Friday (-0.88% for the week), Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 1.11% (-2.06% for the week), British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 0.98% (-0.68% for the week).
The European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates until inflation is under control, two ECB officials said Friday. French central bank governor François Villrois de Galleau and his Lithuanian counterpart Gediminas Simkus confirmed the ECB’s intention to raise borrowing costs even further. Data on Friday also showed that Eurozone retail sales fell more than expected in March, signaling a cooling of demand.
Saudi Arabia’s economy grew by 3.9% in the first quarter thanks to non-oil activity. The IMF reports that the Saudi economy grew by 8.7% last year but forecasts that Saudi GDP growth will increase by 3.1% this year.
Gold fell back from record highs amid signs that the Fed may raise rates again in June. Gold has an inverse correlation to government bond yields, which depend on the dollar index. A rise in interest rates causes the dollar and government bond yields to rise, which is negative for gold and silver. But the medium-term outlook for gold for the rest of the year remains bullish, as the US Federal Reserve is in the final phase of its tightening cycle.
Asian markets have gained substantially over the past week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) gained 2.39%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added 0.37%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) increased by 0.50%, India’s NIFTY 50 (IND50) jumped by 0.96%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was up by 0.37%.
On Friday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) imposed additional capital requirements on DBS Bank, the banking arm of the country’s largest lender, DBS Group, after disruptions to its banking services in recent months.
The Australian government intends to lower its inflation forecasts and also forecasts a longer unemployment decline in the 2023/24 budget, which should lead to a much-needed rise in real wages. Unemployment is forecast at 3.5% at the end of the second quarter.
In the commodities market, futures on cotton (+4.03%), wheat (+3.94%), silver (+2.79%), and corn (+2.09%) showed the biggest gains last week. Futures on natural gas (-12.32%), WTI oil (-7.11%), Brent oil (-6.17%), and lumber (-2.15%) showed the largest drop.
S&P 500 (F) (US500) 4,136.25 +75.03 (+1.85%)
Dow Jones (US30)33,674.38 +546.64 (+1.65%)
DAX (DE40) 15,961.02 +226.78 (+1.44%)
FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,778.38 +75.74 (+0.98%)
USD Index 101.28 -0.12 -0.12%
Important events for today:
– Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
– Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
– German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.
The GBPUSD hijacked our attention this morning after hitting a fresh 2023 high.
Sterling has become the best performing G10 currency year-to-date, gaining roughly 4.7% against the dollar thanks to fundamental and technical forces.
On the fundamental side, pound bulls remain supported by encouraging UK economic data, BoE rate hike expectations and a weaker dollar. Taking a glance at the technicals, prices are firmly bullish on the weekly timeframe with the next major resistance levels around the 100 and 200-week Simple Moving Averages.
This could be a volatile week for the GBPUSD and here are 4 reasons why…
BoE Super Thursday
The Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision will be on Thursday 11th May.
This will be accompanied by the minutes of the meeting and the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), making it a Super Thursday combo.
Markets widely expect the BoE to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, taking the key rate to 4.5%. Given how UK inflation remains in double digits at 10.1% and strong wage growth, this is unlikely to be the last rate hike from the BoE. Investors will be paying very close attention to the minutes, quarterly MPR and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference for fresh clues on the central bank’s next move.
If the BoE strikes a hawkish note and signals further rate hikes in the face of stubborn inflation, this could boost the GBPUSD higher
A cautious sounding BoE that hints at potentially pausing rate hikes could send the Pound tumbling.
US April CPI report
Before the BoE rate decision, much attention will be directed towards the April US consumer price index (CPI) report published on Wednesday. After last Friday’s robust NFP report that saw the US economy create 253,000 jobs in April, investors will be paying extra attention to the inflation data. CPI year-on-year is expected to rise 5.0% which would be the slowest pace in almost 2 years while Core CPI is forecast to cool 5.5% from the 5.6% in the prior month.
Should the report point to further evidence of inflation slowing down, this could reinforce expectations around the Fed pausing rates – ultimately lifting the GBPUSD as the dollar weakens.
If the CPI figures remain sticky, this could compound to last Friday’s strong US jobs report and boost bets around the Fed leaving interest rates higher for longer. Should this boost the dollar, it may drag the GBPUSD lower.
Top-tier UK economic data
On Friday, it will be wise to keep a close eye on the UK Q1 GDP print and latest industrial production figures which could offer additional insight into the health of the UK economy. Growth is expected to stagnate in the first quarter of 2023, expanding 0.2% year-on-year compared to the 0.6% witnessed in the previous quarter. Ultimately, a strong set of figures may boost sentiment towards the UK economy while disappointing numbers are seen fuelling fears over the growth outlook.
GBPUSD confirmed breakout
After securing a solid daily close above the 1.2580 resistance level, this could signal further upside for the GBPUSD. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while prices are trading firmly above the 50,100 and 200-day Simple Moving Average. The bullish momentum could pave a path towards 1.2730 and 1.2870, respectively. If prices sink back under 1.2580, bears may target 1.2530 and 1.2380, respectively.
Mindfulness and self-compassion are now buzzwords for self-improvement. But in fact, a growing body of research shows these practices can lead to real mental health benefits. This research – ongoing, voluminous and worldwide – clearly shows how and why these two practices work.
One effective way to cultivate mindfulness and self-compassion is through meditation.
For more than 20 years, as a clinical psychologist, research scientist and educator, I taught meditation to students and clinical patients and took a deep dive into the research literature. My recent book, “The Self-Talk Workout: Six Science-Backed Strategies to Dissolve Self-Criticism and Transform the Voice in Your Head,” highlights much of that research.
Could mindfulness meditation be the next public health revolution?
Be patient when starting a meditation practice
I didn’t like meditation – the specific practice sessions that train mindfulness and self-compassion – the first time I tried it as a college student in the late ‘90s. I felt like a failure when my mind wandered, and I interpreted that as a sign that I couldn’t do it.
In both my own and others’ meditation practices, I’ve noticed that the beginning is often rocky and full of doubt, resistance and distraction.
But what seem like impediments can actually enhance meditation practice, because the mental work of handling them builds strength.
For the first six months I meditated, my body and mind were restless. I wanted to get up and do other tasks. But I didn’t. Eventually it became easier to notice my urges and thoughts without acting upon them. I didn’t get as upset with myself.
After about a year of consistent meditation, my mind seemed more organized and controllable; it no longer got stuck in self-critical loops. I felt a sense of kindness or friendliness toward myself in everyday moments, as well as during joyful or difficult experiences. I enjoyed ordinary activities more, such as walking or cleaning.
It took a while to understand that anytime you sit down and try to meditate, that’s meditation. It is a mental process, rather than a destination.
How meditation works on the mind
Just having a general intention to be more mindful or self-compassionate is unlikely to work.
Don’t be discouraged if your mind wanders as you meditate.
Establishing the formal practice
A common misconception about mindfulness is that it’s simply a way to relax or clear the mind. Rather, it means intentionally paying attention to your experiences in a nonjudgmental way.
Consider meditation the formal part of your practice – that is, setting aside a time to work on specific mindfulness and self-compassion techniques.
Cultivating mindfulness with meditation often involves focusing on paying attention to the breath. A common way to start practice is to sit in a comfortable place and bring attention to your breathing, wherever you feel it most strongly.
At some point, probably after a breath or two, your mind will wander to another thought or feeling. As soon as you notice that, you can bring your attention back to the breath and try not to judge yourself for losing focus for five to 10 minutes.
When I was just getting started meditating, I would have to redirect my attention dozens or hundreds of times in a 20-to-30-minute session. Counting 10 breaths, and then another 10, and so on, helped me link my mind to the task of paying attention to my breathing.
The most well-established technique for cultivating self-compassion is called loving-kindness meditation. To practice, you can find a comfortable position, and for at least five minutes, internally repeat phrases such as, “May I be safe. May I be happy. May I be healthy. May I live with ease.”
When your attention wanders, you can bring it back with as little self-judgment as possible and continue repeating the phrases. Then, if you like, offer the same well wishes to other people or to all beings.
Every time you return your focus to your practice without judging, you’re flexing your mental awareness, because you noticed your mind wandered. You also improve your capacity to shift attention, a valuable anti-rumination skill, and your nonjudgment, an antidote to self-criticism.
Mindfulness also occurs when you tune into present-moment sensations, such as tasting your food or washing the dishes.
An ongoing routine of formal and informal practice can transform your thinking. And again, doing it once in a while won’t help as much. It’s like situps: A single situp isn’t likely to strengthen your abdominal muscles, but doing several sets each day will.
When thoughts pop up during meditation, no worries. Just start again … and again … and again.
One final point: Beginning meditators may find that self-criticism gets worse before it gets better.
After years or decades of habitual self-judgment, people often judge themselves harshly about losing focus during meditation. But once students get through the first few weeks of practice, the self-judgment begins to abate, both about meditation and about oneself in general.
As one of my students recently said after several weeks of mindfulness meditation: “I am more stable, more able to detach from unhelpful thoughts and can do all of this while being a little more compassionate and loving toward myself.”
Article by 
