Archive for Financial News

Goldman Sachs has updated its economic projections for 2025. EU countries are looking for alternative sources of natural gas

By JustMarkets

At the end of Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 1.18% (for the week -2.25%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) gained 1.09% (for the week -2.19%). The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.85% (for the week -2.75%). Friday’s rally followed lower-than-expected inflation data, with the November PCE Index showing an increase to 2.4% year-over-year, slightly below expectations of 2.5%. That helped ease market anxiety over the Federal Reserve’s prediction of fewer rate cuts in 2025. However, despite Friday’s gains, all three indices closed negative at the end of the week.

Goldman Sachs updated its economic projections to reflect nuanced changes in monetary policy expectations and global growth trends for 2025. The US Federal Reserve’s ultimate policy rate is now expected to be in the 3.5–3.75% range, up from previous estimates of 3.25–3.5%. The broker expects the next 25 basis point rate cut to occur in March, followed by additional cuts in June and September. The US economic performance is projected to continue to outperform developed economies, supported by strong real income growth and excellent productivity gains. The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to continue to cut rates through mid-2025, eventually reaching the 1.75% level. In China, the outlook remains cautious despite recent policy easing.

The Mexican peso (MXN) strengthened to 20.2 per US dollar, amid a weaker US dollar following the release of softer-than-expected Core PCE data. Last week, the Bank of Mexico cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 10%, matching investor expectations. The rate cut came amid lower inflation in Mexico. The Bank of Mexico anticipates further easing next year amid prognoses for inflation to fall to 4.6% by the end of the year, although it does not expect to reach its 3% target until mid-2026.

Donald Trump said on Saturday that the Panama Canal charges “exorbitant prices and tariffs for passage” for US military and merchant ships. He demanded the fees be lowered or Panama must return the canal to the United States. The US is the canal’s largest customer, with about three-quarters of its cargo passing each year. China is its second-largest customer. Trump has suggested that China should not run the canal. A Chinese company based in Hong Kong controls two of the five ports adjacent to the canal, one on each side. “If the principles, both moral and legal, of this magnanimous gesture of giving are not honored, we will demand that the Panama Canal be returned to us, fully and without question,” Trump said. The US completed the 51-mile (82-kilometer) canal across the Central American isthmus in 1914. However, in 1977, US President at the time Jimmy Carter handed the Panama Canal back to Panama.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Friday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.43% (for the week -2.34%), France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.27% (for the week -1.46%), Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) gained 0.24% (for the week -2.25%), and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) lost 0.26% (for the week -2.60%) on Friday. Concerns over the potential impact of a second Trump administration in Europe intensified after Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on the European Union if EU countries do not increase their purchases of US oil and gas.

WTI crude oil prices decreased by 0.1% to close at $69.46 per barrel on Friday, recovering some losses but still showing a 3% decline for the week. China’s energy outlook added to market uncertainty, with Sinopec estimating crude imports could peak by 2025 and oil consumption by 2027. OPEC+ lowered its demand growth projection for 2024 for the fifth consecutive time, emphasizing the need for supply discipline. In addition, President-elect Trump has indicated the possibility of imposing tariffs on the EU if it fails to address trade imbalances, particularly with US oil and gas.

Natural gas prices (XNG/USD) rose to $3.7 per mmbtu on Friday, the highest in a month. The reduced likelihood that Europe will continue to receive Russian gas via Ukraine has prompted investors to take long LNG positions as EU countries look for alternative sources of gas. These boosts demand for US LNG at the turn of the US presidential election: President-elect Trump has pledged to issue more LNG export permits, prompting companies to favor more profitable exports over cheaper domestic gas sales due to the abundance of gas available in the United States.

Asian markets traded flat last week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 0.29%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) gained 0.19%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 1.14% and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.48% for the week.

Singapore’s Core Consumer Prices showed 1.9% year-on-year in November 2024, down from 2.1% in the previous month, below market estimates of 2.1%. This was the lowest core inflation rate since November 2021, thanks to lower inflation in food and services. MAS core inflation is expected to remain below 2% until the end of 2024. Core inflation is projected to average 2.5–3.0% in 2024 before falling to 1.5–2.5% in 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,930.85 +63.77 (+1.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,840.26 +498.02 (+1.18%)

DAX (DE40) 19,884.75 −85.11 (−0.43%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,084.61 −20.71 (−0.26%)

USD Index 106.95 −0.01 (−0.01%)

News feed for: 2024.12.23

  • Singapore Inflation Rate (m/m) at 07:00 (GMT+2).
  • UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

COT Bonds Charts: Speculator Bets led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by SOFR 3-Months & 10-Year Bonds

The COT bond market speculator bets were slightly higher this week as five out of the nine bond markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the bond markets was the SOFR 3-Months (218,551 contracts) with the 10-Year Bonds (142,799 contracts), the Fed Funds (52,914 contracts), the SOFR 1-Month (29,668 contracts) and the 5-Year Bonds (28,113 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The bond markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were the US Treasury Bonds (-6,810 contracts), the Ultra 10-Year Bonds (-6,403 contracts), the 2-Year Bonds (-4,349 contracts) and with the Ultra Treasury Bonds (-2,932 contracts) also seeing lower bets on the week.


Bonds Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Ultra Treasury Bonds & US Treasury Bonds

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Ultra Treasury Bonds (91 percent) and the US Treasury Bonds (67 percent) lead the bond markets this week. The SOFR 1-Month (59 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) and 5-Year Bonds (12 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Fed Funds (48.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (38.3 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.7 percent)
5-Year Bond (11.7 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (10.3 percent)
10-Year Bond (38.8 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (25.3 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (42.2 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (43.9 percent)
US Treasury Bond (67.4 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (69.7 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (90.6 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (91.7 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (58.7 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (54.6 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (43.4 percent)


SOFR 1-Month & Ultra Treasury Bonds top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the SOFR 1-Month (27 percent) and the Ultra Treasury Bonds (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for bonds. The 2-Year Bonds (14 percent) are the next highest positive movers in the latest trends data.

The Fed Funds (-11.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the US Treasury Bonds (-3 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Fed Funds (-11.0 percent) vs Fed Funds previous week (-44.7 percent)
2-Year Bond (14.4 percent) vs 2-Year Bond previous week (14.3 percent)
5-Year Bond (0.3 percent) vs 5-Year Bond previous week (-5.9 percent)
10-Year Bond (8.1 percent) vs 10-Year Bond previous week (2.4 percent)
Ultra 10-Year Bond (7.1 percent) vs Ultra 10-Year Bond previous week (-0.8 percent)
US Treasury Bond (-3.0 percent) vs US Treasury Bond previous week (5.3 percent)
Ultra US Treasury Bond (17.2 percent) vs Ultra US Treasury Bond previous week (35.8 percent)
SOFR 1-Month (26.9 percent) vs SOFR 1-Month previous week (51.4 percent)
SOFR 3-Months (-0.7 percent) vs SOFR 3-Months previous week (-14.2 percent)


30-Day Federal Funds Futures:

Federal Funds 30-Day Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 30-Day Federal Funds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -35,557 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 52,914 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -88,471 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 78.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

30-Day Federal Funds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.968.62.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.966.42.2
– Net Position:-35,55739,263-3,706
– Gross Longs:266,5771,226,90735,971
– Gross Shorts:302,1341,187,64439,677
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.049.278.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-11.010.34.9

 


Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) Futures:

SOFR 3-Months Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (3-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -108,925 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 218,551 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -327,476 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SOFR 3-Months StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:13.959.30.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.858.30.6
– Net Position:-108,925117,411-8,486
– Gross Longs:1,543,4086,609,84956,269
– Gross Shorts:1,652,3336,492,43864,755
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):54.645.783.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.71.0-3.1

 


Individual Bond Markets:

Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) Futures:

SOFR 1-Month Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Secured Overnight Financing Rate (1-Month) large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -39,662 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 29,668 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -69,330 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 41.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

SOFR 1-Month StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.562.20.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.159.60.0
– Net Position:-39,66240,010-348
– Gross Longs:392,112954,943141
– Gross Shorts:431,774914,933489
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 10.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.741.453.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:26.9-26.90.7

 


2-Year Treasury Note Futures:

2-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 2-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,259,273 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -4,349 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,254,924 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 77.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

2-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.678.25.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:41.451.42.8
– Net Position:-1,259,2731,129,720129,553
– Gross Longs:487,3393,297,104248,447
– Gross Shorts:1,746,6122,167,384118,894
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 11.5 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.484.977.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:14.4-15.0-7.2

 


5-Year Treasury Note Futures:

5-Year Treasury Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 5-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -1,762,317 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 28,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -1,790,430 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 11.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

5-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.284.86.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.257.25.0
– Net Position:-1,762,3171,670,04492,273
– Gross Longs:435,4195,139,765395,530
– Gross Shorts:2,197,7363,469,721303,257
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 11.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):11.787.870.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.33.5-11.2

 


10-Year Treasury Note Futures:

10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe 10-Year Treasury Note large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -732,917 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 142,799 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -875,716 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 58.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

10-Year Treasury Note StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.077.29.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.462.67.8
– Net Position:-732,917651,75981,158
– Gross Longs:492,5293,448,078431,228
– Gross Shorts:1,225,4462,796,319350,070
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.858.682.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.1-6.8-6.6

 


Ultra 10-Year Notes Futures:

Ultra 10-Year Treasury Notes Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra 10-Year Notes large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -112,485 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,403 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -106,082 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 42.2 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 34.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Ultra 10-Year Notes StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.372.910.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.566.212.4
– Net Position:-112,485145,015-32,530
– Gross Longs:332,6001,582,159237,065
– Gross Shorts:445,0851,437,144269,595
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):42.234.693.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.1-19.019.1

 


US Treasury Bonds Futures:

US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -46,303 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -6,810 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,493 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 74.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:21.965.711.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:24.467.67.1
– Net Position:-46,303-34,19780,500
– Gross Longs:407,7711,224,408213,331
– Gross Shorts:454,0741,258,605132,831
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 11.0 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.417.474.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.00.84.2

 


Ultra US Treasury Bonds Futures:

Ultra US Year Treasury Notes Long Bonds Futures COT ChartThe Ultra US Treasury Bonds large speculator standing this week equaled a net position of -219,304 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,932 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -216,372 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 90.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 4.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Ultra US Treasury Bonds StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.179.910.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:20.368.89.1
– Net Position:-219,304198,64420,660
– Gross Longs:144,9521,432,440184,033
– Gross Shorts:364,2561,233,796163,373
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 11.2 to 11.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):90.64.635.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.2-28.928.0

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Metals Charts: Speculator Bets led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led lower by Gold, Copper & Palladium

The COT metals markets speculator bets were decidedly lower this week as all of the six metals markets we cover had lower speculator contracts.

The markets with declines in speculator bets for the week were Gold (-13,545 contracts), Copper (-5,019 contracts), Palladium (-1,282 contracts), Platinum (-1,085 contracts), Silver (-901 contracts) and with Steel (-778 contracts) also recording lower bets on the week.


Metals Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Steel & Gold

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Steel (83 percent) and Gold (80 percent) lead the metals markets this week. Silver (67 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Copper (39 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently while the next lowest strength scores were Platinum (49 percent) and Palladium (48 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Gold (79.7 percent) vs Gold previous week (84.9 percent)
Silver (67.0 percent) vs Silver previous week (68.2 percent)
Copper (38.8 percent) vs Copper previous week (43.4 percent)
Platinum (48.5 percent) vs Platinum previous week (51.0 percent)
Palladium (48.4 percent) vs Palladium previous week (57.8 percent)
Steel (82.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (85.7 percent)


Gold tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Gold (3 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for metals and is the only positive mover in the latest trends data.

Platinum (-36 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Palladium (-27 percent) as the next market with lower trend scores.

Move Statistics:
Gold (2.5 percent) vs Gold previous week (-1.2 percent)
Silver (-16.5 percent) vs Silver previous week (-24.3 percent)
Copper (-16.5 percent) vs Copper previous week (-11.9 percent)
Platinum (-36.2 percent) vs Platinum previous week (-49.0 percent)
Palladium (-26.7 percent) vs Palladium previous week (-26.2 percent)
Steel (-12.0 percent) vs Steel previous week (-10.0 percent)


Individual Markets:

Gold Comex Futures:

Gold Futures COT ChartThe Gold Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 262,041 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -13,545 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 275,586 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Gold Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:64.913.110.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.874.25.4
– Net Position:262,041-285,23323,192
– Gross Longs:302,97861,01248,388
– Gross Shorts:40,937346,24525,196
– Long to Short Ratio:7.4 to 10.2 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.719.654.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.5-0.8-16.4

 


Silver Comex Futures:

Silver Futures COT ChartThe Silver Comex Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 40,264 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -901 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 41,165 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 67.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Silver Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.423.920.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.063.18.3
– Net Position:40,264-57,51017,246
– Gross Longs:68,18335,13529,396
– Gross Shorts:27,91992,64512,150
– Long to Short Ratio:2.4 to 10.4 to 12.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):67.030.854.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.518.5-17.7

 


Copper Grade #1 Futures:

Copper Futures COT ChartThe Copper Grade #1 Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 5,940 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -5,019 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 10,959 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 38.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 60.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Copper Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.335.88.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.441.55.6
– Net Position:5,940-11,7505,810
– Gross Longs:81,54074,27517,360
– Gross Shorts:75,60086,02511,550
– Long to Short Ratio:1.1 to 10.9 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):38.860.352.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-16.519.4-28.6

 


Platinum Futures:

Platinum Futures COT ChartThe Platinum Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 13,744 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,085 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 14,829 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Platinum Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:57.419.412.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.441.14.3
– Net Position:13,744-21,3417,597
– Gross Longs:56,23318,95911,841
– Gross Shorts:42,48940,3004,244
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.5 to 12.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.545.181.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-36.232.413.5

 


Palladium Futures:

Palladium Futures COT ChartThe Palladium Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -7,311 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,282 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -6,029 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 48.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 79.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Palladium Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:33.548.614.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:76.910.88.3
– Net Position:-7,3116,358953
– Gross Longs:5,6338,1822,356
– Gross Shorts:12,9441,8241,403
– Long to Short Ratio:0.4 to 14.5 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):48.449.379.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-26.726.9-5.9

 


Steel Futures Futures:

Steel Futures COT ChartThe Steel Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -3,558 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -778 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,780 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Steel Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.767.70.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:35.356.20.7
– Net Position:-3,5583,5508
– Gross Longs:7,33820,911226
– Gross Shorts:10,89617,361218
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.718.133.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.012.4-13.1

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Soft Commodities Charts: Speculator Bets led by Live Cattle, Lean Hogs & Coffee

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Live Cattle & Lean Hogs

The COT soft commodities markets speculator bets were overall lower this week as three out of the eleven softs markets we cover had higher positioning while the other eight markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the softs markets was Live Cattle (8,077 contracts) with Lean Hogs (1,888 contracts) and Coffee (73 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets this week were Sugar (-29,144 contracts), Soybeans (-23,113 contracts), Wheat (-20,050 contracts), Soybean Meal (-15,616 contracts), Soybean Oil (-9,513 contracts), Cotton (-7,075 contracts), Corn (-2,575 contracts) and with Cocoa (-1,696 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Soft Commodities Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Lean Hogs & Live Cattle

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that Lean Hogs (100 percent) and Live Cattle (98 percent) lead the softs markets this week. Coffee (86 percent), Corn (62 percent) and Soybean Oil (60 percent) come in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, Soybean Meal (9 percent), Cotton (13 percent) and Wheat (14 percent) come in at the lowest strength levels currently and are in Extreme-Bearish territory (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
Corn (62.1 percent) vs Corn previous week (62.4 percent)
Sugar (25.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (35.7 percent)
Coffee (86.5 percent) vs Coffee previous week (86.4 percent)
Soybeans (20.7 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (26.2 percent)
Soybean Oil (59.7 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (64.9 percent)
Soybean Meal (9.0 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (15.4 percent)
Live Cattle (98.4 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (89.7 percent)
Lean Hogs (100.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (98.5 percent)
Cotton (13.1 percent) vs Cotton previous week (17.9 percent)
Cocoa (45.9 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (47.7 percent)
Wheat (14.2 percent) vs Wheat previous week (30.1 percent)


Live Cattle & Lean Hogs top the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that Live Cattle (34 percent) and Lean Hogs (17 percent) lead the past six weeks trends for soft commodities. Corn (15 percent) comes in as the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

Wheat (-45 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with Soybean Oil (-24 percent), Soybean Meal (-24 percent) and Cotton (-10 percent) following next with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
Corn (15.2 percent) vs Corn previous week (18.0 percent)
Sugar (-3.5 percent) vs Sugar previous week (5.1 percent)
Coffee (-0.8 percent) vs Coffee previous week (-3.1 percent)
Soybeans (-4.8 percent) vs Soybeans previous week (1.4 percent)
Soybean Oil (-23.6 percent) vs Soybean Oil previous week (-11.8 percent)
Soybean Meal (-24.3 percent) vs Soybean Meal previous week (-23.1 percent)
Live Cattle (34.5 percent) vs Live Cattle previous week (22.6 percent)
Lean Hogs (17.0 percent) vs Lean Hogs previous week (23.5 percent)
Cotton (-9.5 percent) vs Cotton previous week (-5.2 percent)
Cocoa (-1.4 percent) vs Cocoa previous week (-0.4 percent)
Wheat (-45.1 percent) vs Wheat previous week (-28.9 percent)


Individual Soft Commodities Markets:

CORN Futures:

CORN Futures COT ChartThe CORN large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 221,848 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -2,575 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 224,423 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 62.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 39.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

CORN Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.146.17.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.456.610.7
– Net Position:221,848-170,678-51,170
– Gross Longs:454,635745,237121,259
– Gross Shorts:232,787915,915172,429
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 10.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):62.139.839.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.2-14.7-11.6

 


SUGAR Futures:

SUGAR Futures COT ChartThe SUGAR large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 68,183 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -29,144 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 97,327 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 73.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 35.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

SUGAR Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:23.453.47.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:16.261.96.0
– Net Position:68,183-79,99811,815
– Gross Longs:221,468505,12668,565
– Gross Shorts:153,285585,12456,750
– Long to Short Ratio:1.4 to 10.9 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):25.573.535.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-3.59.6-30.6

 


COFFEE Futures:

COFFEE Futures COT ChartThe COFFEE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 62,147 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly edge higher of 73 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 62,074 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 12.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COFFEE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:37.234.64.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:6.067.53.0
– Net Position:62,147-65,7003,553
– Gross Longs:74,22769,1459,539
– Gross Shorts:12,080134,8455,986
– Long to Short Ratio:6.1 to 10.5 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):86.512.771.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-0.8-0.317.0

 


SOYBEANS Futures:

SOYBEANS Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEANS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -109,329 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -23,113 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,216 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 20.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 79.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

SOYBEANS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.056.65.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:29.042.97.4
– Net Position:-109,329125,032-15,703
– Gross Longs:156,034518,26352,313
– Gross Shorts:265,363393,23168,016
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.3 to 10.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):20.779.671.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-4.84.28.7

 


SOYBEAN OIL Futures:

SOYBEAN OIL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN OIL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 33,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,513 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 42,863 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 59.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 45.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN OIL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:25.152.85.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:19.258.95.3
– Net Position:33,350-34,5661,216
– Gross Longs:142,261299,58931,466
– Gross Shorts:108,911334,15530,250
– Long to Short Ratio:1.3 to 10.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):59.745.818.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-23.625.5-32.3

 


SOYBEAN MEAL Futures:

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures COT ChartThe SOYBEAN MEAL large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -44,844 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -15,616 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -29,228 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 9.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 60.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend.

SOYBEAN MEAL Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.445.58.9
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.542.25.3
– Net Position:-44,84421,47823,366
– Gross Longs:130,356290,50657,067
– Gross Shorts:175,200269,02833,701
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):9.086.260.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-24.323.8-4.1

 


LIVE CATTLE Futures:

LIVE CATTLE Futures COT ChartThe LIVE CATTLE large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 110,778 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 8,077 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 102,701 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 98.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 15.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 7.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

LIVE CATTLE Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:50.128.67.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.553.713.5
– Net Position:110,778-87,943-22,835
– Gross Longs:175,651100,38924,537
– Gross Shorts:64,873188,33247,372
– Long to Short Ratio:2.7 to 10.5 to 10.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):98.415.27.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:34.5-39.62.8

 


LEAN HOGS Futures:

LEAN HOGS Futures COT ChartThe LEAN HOGS large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 93,410 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,888 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 91,522 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

LEAN HOGS Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:46.330.66.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:18.254.810.0
– Net Position:93,410-80,545-12,865
– Gross Longs:154,060101,70420,534
– Gross Shorts:60,650182,24933,399
– Long to Short Ratio:2.5 to 10.6 to 10.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):100.02.014.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.0-14.6-24.7

 


COTTON Futures:

COTTON Futures COT ChartThe COTTON large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -26,603 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -7,075 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -19,528 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 13.1 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 86.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

COTTON Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:24.947.55.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:36.036.05.8
– Net Position:-26,60327,546-943
– Gross Longs:59,565113,85412,851
– Gross Shorts:86,16886,30813,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.3 to 10.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):13.186.810.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-9.59.5-7.8

 


COCOA Futures:

COCOA Futures COT ChartThe COCOA large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 35,281 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly reduction of -1,696 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 36,977 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 45.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 50.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend.

COCOA Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:39.938.39.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.371.24.2
– Net Position:35,281-42,0676,786
– Gross Longs:51,06449,03312,193
– Gross Shorts:15,78391,1005,407
– Long to Short Ratio:3.2 to 10.5 to 12.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):45.950.970.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-1.41.7-2.2

 


WHEAT Futures:

WHEAT Futures COT ChartThe WHEAT large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -79,340 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -20,050 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -59,290 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 14.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 85.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

WHEAT Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:28.639.27.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:46.420.97.6
– Net Position:-79,34080,945-1,605
– Gross Longs:126,968173,93432,189
– Gross Shorts:206,30892,98933,794
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.9 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):14.285.849.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-45.140.832.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Stock Market Charts: Speculator Bets led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday December 17th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial entities) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by S&P500 & Russell-2000

The COT stock markets speculator bets were slightly lower this week as three out of the seven stock markets we cover had higher positioning while the other four markets had lower speculator contracts.

Leading the gains for the stock markets was the S&P500-Mini (43,471 contracts) with the Russell-Mini (1,741 contracts) and the Nasdaq-Mini (509 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The markets with the declines in speculator bets were the MSCI EAFE-Mini (-13,702 contracts), the VIX (-3,818 contracts), the DowJones-Mini (-3,550 contracts) and with the Nikkei 225 (-1,571 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Stock Market Net Speculators Leaderboard

Legend: Weekly Speculators Change | Speculators Current Net Position | Speculators Strength Score compared to last 3-Years (0-100 range)


Strength Scores led by Nasdaq-Mini & Russell-Mini

COT Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is Extreme-Bullish and below 20 is Extreme-Bearish) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (95 percent) and the Russell-Mini (82 percent) lead the stock markets this week. The DowJones-Mini (73 percent) comes in as the next highest in the weekly strength scores.

On the downside, the MSCI EAFE-Mini (35 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently with the next lowest strength score being the Nikkei 225 (45 percent).

Strength Statistics:
VIX (52.0 percent) vs VIX previous week (55.4 percent)
S&P500-Mini (58.8 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (52.3 percent)
DowJones-Mini (72.5 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (78.3 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (95.1 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (94.3 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (81.7 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (80.5 percent)
Nikkei USD (44.6 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (58.0 percent)
EAFE-Mini (34.8 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (49.4 percent)


Nasdaq-Mini tops the 6-Week Strength Trends

COT Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) showed that the Nasdaq-Mini (31 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for the stock markets. The MSCI EAFE-Mini (18 percent) is the next highest positive mover in the latest trends data.

The VIX (-29 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently with the S&P500-Mini (-23 percent) coming in as the next market with lower trend scores.

Strength Trend Statistics:
VIX (-29.3 percent) vs VIX previous week (-39.5 percent)
S&P500-Mini (-22.9 percent) vs S&P500-Mini previous week (-21.8 percent)
DowJones-Mini (-8.8 percent) vs DowJones-Mini previous week (2.4 percent)
Nasdaq-Mini (31.0 percent) vs Nasdaq-Mini previous week (47.2 percent)
Russell2000-Mini (-6.3 percent) vs Russell2000-Mini previous week (-9.6 percent)
Nikkei USD (-15.2 percent) vs Nikkei USD previous week (-21.6 percent)
EAFE-Mini (18.4 percent) vs EAFE-Mini previous week (18.1 percent)


Individual Stock Market Charts:

VIX Volatility Futures:

VIX Volatility Futures COT ChartThe VIX Volatility large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -48,988 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,818 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,170 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 52.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 49.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend.

VIX Volatility Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.946.88.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:34.232.77.8
– Net Position:-48,98848,253735
– Gross Longs:67,787159,78127,288
– Gross Shorts:116,775111,52826,553
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.4 to 11.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):52.049.081.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-29.330.0-12.0

 


S&P500 Mini Futures:

SP500 Mini Futures COT ChartThe S&P500 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -39,862 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 43,471 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -83,333 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 58.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 23.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 100.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

S&P500 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.169.112.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.673.76.6
– Net Position:-39,862-118,471158,333
– Gross Longs:313,4201,793,629328,497
– Gross Shorts:353,2821,912,100170,164
– Long to Short Ratio:0.9 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):58.823.5100.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-22.915.815.3

 


Dow Jones Mini Futures:

Dow Jones Mini Futures COT ChartThe Dow Jones Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 7,521 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -3,550 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 11,071 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 19.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 94.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Dow Jones Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:19.756.018.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.668.413.3
– Net Position:7,521-13,1455,624
– Gross Longs:20,78059,00919,672
– Gross Shorts:13,25972,15414,048
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.519.294.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-8.85.89.3

 


Nasdaq Mini Futures:

Nasdaq Mini Futures COT ChartThe Nasdaq Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of 36,082 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 509 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 35,573 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 95.1 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 2.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Uptrend.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.054.613.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:17.969.19.8
– Net Position:36,082-47,17411,092
– Gross Longs:94,151177,34642,919
– Gross Shorts:58,069224,52031,827
– Long to Short Ratio:1.6 to 10.8 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):95.12.975.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:31.0-20.9-0.9

 


Russell 2000 Mini Futures:

Russell 2000 Mini Futures COT ChartThe Russell 2000 Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -416 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 1,741 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,157 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.7 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 10.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 88.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Uptrend.

Russell 2000 Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.773.38.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.877.24.4
– Net Position:-416-22,28022,696
– Gross Longs:72,290417,35247,882
– Gross Shorts:72,706439,63225,186
– Long to Short Ratio:1.0 to 10.9 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):81.710.388.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.30.822.5

 


Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures:

Nikkei Stock Average (USD) Futures COT ChartThe Nikkei Stock Average (USD) large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -4,174 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decrease of -1,571 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -2,603 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 44.6 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.6 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 65.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

Nikkei Stock Average Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:4.871.523.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.142.312.6
– Net Position:-4,1743,0291,145
– Gross Longs:5017,4192,456
– Gross Shorts:4,6754,3901,311
– Long to Short Ratio:0.1 to 11.7 to 11.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):44.647.665.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.211.81.8

 


MSCI EAFE Mini Futures:

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures COT ChartThe MSCI EAFE Mini large speculator standing this week resulted in a net position of -31,665 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -13,702 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -17,963 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 75.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Downtrend.

MSCI EAFE Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:7.184.63.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.881.11.2
– Net Position:-31,66519,84211,823
– Gross Longs:39,277470,65418,670
– Gross Shorts:70,942450,8126,847
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.0 to 12.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.856.775.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.4-23.124.9

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Riksbank and Banxico cut interest rates by 0.25%. BoE, Norges Bank, and PBoC left rates unchanged

By JustMarkets 

At the end of Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased 0.09%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.47%. The US economic reports released on Thursday were mostly stronger than expected and pushed bond yields to a 6-month high, which pressured the indices. The US Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised upward to 3.1% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of no change at 2.8%. The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 22,000 to 220,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 230,000. The US home sales for November rose by 4.8% m/m to an 8-month high of 4.15 million, stronger than expectations of 3.2% to 4.09 million.

On Friday, markets await key inflation data: the PCE Core Price Index for November, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, to see if policymakers can continue to cut interest rates. The Core PCE Index for November is expected to rise to 2.9% y/y from 2.8% y/y in October.

The Mexican peso remained above 20.3 per US dollar, near the one-month low of 20.37 seen on December 18, after the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) cut rates to 10% and signaled further easing, possibly with larger cuts, depending on the pace of disinflation and economic conditions.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Thursday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 1.35%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 1.22%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.53%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down 1.14%. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index in Germany for January rose by 1.8 to minus 21.3, beating expectations of minus 22.5. The Bank of England (BOE) left the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.75%. Bank of England Governor Bailey stated that a “gradual approach” to future rate cuts remains the right approach, and we cannot determine when and by how much to cut interest rates in 2025.

Norway’s Norges Bank kept its key rate unchanged at 4.5% at its December 2024 meeting, in line with market expectations, but said rates will likely be cut in March 2025. Policymakers have kept the interest rate at a sixteen-year high of 4.5% since December 2023, helping to cool the Norwegian economy and lower inflation. Sweden’s Riksbank cut its key rate by 25 bps to 2.50% at its December meeting, confirming market expectations. This is the fifth rate cut this year, for a total of 150 bps, in response to the continued decline in inflation and stabilization of inflationary pressures. This was reflected in November core inflation, which came in at 1.6%, the lowest level since July 2021, remaining below the central bank’s 2% target for the fourth consecutive month.

The US natural gas (XNG/USD) prices rose to $3.5 per MMBtu on Thursday, the highest in more than a year, as bets on higher global LNG demand boosted domestic consumption. EIA data showed utilities withdrew more than 100 billion cubic feet of natural gas from storage for the second straight week, extending the expected withdrawal season. In addition, uncertainty over whether Europe will continue to receive Russian gas via Ukraine prompted investors to take long LNG positions as EU countries seek alternative gas sources.

Palladium prices slipped below $900 an ounce (XPD/USD), near their lowest level in four months, foreshadowing a fall of more than 18% for the full year amid slowing industrial demand, hawkish Fed monetary policy, and supply growth projections.

Asian markets were mostly down yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) was down 0.69%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) was down 0.41%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost 0.56%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was negative 1.70%. Chinese stocks rose on Friday. The rally followed the latest policy decision by the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), which left one-year and five-year lending rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6% respectively, matching market expectations. Earlier this month, senior Chinese officials pledged to adopt “more active” fiscal measures and “moderate” monetary policy easing next year to boost economic growth, signaling a shift away from the more cautious approach of the past decade.

Malaysia’s annual inflation rate eased to 1.8% in November 2024 from 1.9% in the previous month, below the market estimates of 2.1%. Core Consumer Prices, excluding volatile fresh food and administrative expenses, rose 1.8% y/y, holding steady for the third month and remaining at the slowest pace in six months.

S&P 500 (US500) 5,867.08 −5.08 (−0.09%)

Dow Jones (US30) 42,342.24 +15.37 (+0.04%)

DAX (DE40) 19,969.86 −272.71 (−1.35%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,105.32 −93.79 (−1.14%)

USD Index 108.40 +0.37 (+0.34%)

News feed for: 2024.12.20

  • Japan National Core CPI (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • China PBoC Loan Prime Rate at 03:15 (GMT+2);
  • UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

Brent Oil Under Pressure Again: USD and China in Focus

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices fell below 73 USD per barrel on Friday, reflecting ongoing downward pressure. The market is poised to close the week with losses as a robust US dollar weighs heavily on commodity prices.

This week, the US Federal Reserve signalled a measured approach to reducing borrowing costs in 2025, sending the US dollar to a two-year high. The dollar’s strength has raised concerns about a dampened outlook for global fuel demand, particularly in emerging markets where dollar-denominated commodities become more expensive.

Concerns from China add to market anxiety

The ongoing unease about China’s economic recovery adds to the bearish sentiment. Sinopec, the country’s largest refiner, announced that domestic petrol demand likely peaked last year. This revelation has significantly clouded the outlook for 2025 as China’s role as a key driver of global energy consumption diminishes. China’s reduced demand has cast a long shadow over global crude markets, leading to further downward price pressures.

Mixed signals from supply dynamics

Despite the weak demand signals, the supply side has provided mixed indicators. Earlier in the week, data from the US Department of Energy showed reduced oil reserves, temporarily bolstering prices. However, this bullish factor was short-lived. Kazakhstan’s decision to support the extended production cuts under OPEC+ was another potentially supportive signal, but it has failed to provide sustained relief to oil prices amid broader concerns.

The structural expansion of production outside OPEC, particularly in the US and other non-OPEC nations, further complicates the outlook. Combined with China’s declining appetite for energy, these factors suggest that oil prices may end 2024 on a subdued note, with limited prospects for a significant recovery.

Technical analysis of Brent oil

H4 chart analysis: on the H4 timeframe, Brent continues to trade within a broad consolidation range around the 73.13 USD level. The market recently extended this range upwards to 73.40 USD. However, a downward move to 71.93 USD appears imminent. If the market manages to break out of this range to the upside, the next target lies at 75.05 USD, with the potential for further gains towards the 80.00 USD level.

From a technical standpoint, the MACD indicator supports this scenario, with the signal line positioned below the zero level near recent lows. This indicates that the market could soon attempt a reversal towards higher levels, potentially marking the beginning of a new growth wave.

H1 chart analysis: on the H1 chart, Brent is also consolidating around 73.13 USD. The current wave structure suggests a decline towards 71.93 USD, followed by an expected corrective wave to return to 73.13 USD. If this resistance is breached, the market may gain momentum, with an upward trajectory targeting 75.05 USD and potentially higher levels.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Market round-up: BoE & BoJ hold, Fed delivers ‘hawkish’ cut

By ForexTime

  • BoE keeps ‘gradual’ cut prospects alive
  • Dovish BoJ sends Yen into intervention zone
  • Fed signals slower pace of cuts in 2025

Sterling slipped on Thursday after the Bank of England kept rates unchanged.

Prices dipped toward 1.2600 as investors reacted to three officials voting for an immediate reduction.

The Bank of England voted 6-3 to cut interest rates by a quarter point to 4.75% today.

Overall, the central bank adopted a dovish tone – signaling gradual easing in 2025. However, it flagged geopolitical and trade risks with Trump’s return to the White House.

Still, traders are now pricing in a 73% probability of a 25-basis point cut by February 2025.

Looking at the charts, the GBPUSD remains bearish with 1.2500 the next level of interest.

gpusd

 

Fed’s ‘hawkish’ cut slams markets

Equities tumbled, the dollar surged, and gold tanked despite the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday.

Investors were more concerned about the hawkish messaging which signalled a slower pace of Fed cuts in 2025.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the 2024 inflation forecast had “kind of fallen apart” with officials now seeing inflation at 2.5% at the end of 2025.

 

What does this mean?

The updated dot plot implies another 50 bps of rate cuts in 2025 compared to the 100 bps in the September dot plot.

So essentially, the Fed sees only two rate cuts in 2025.

And markets reactive aggressively to the Fed’s new projected path:

  • US500 fell as much as 3.5%
  • Gold tumbled over 2%
  • USInd surged over 1% to a fresh 2-yr high.

Traders are now expecting only a 50% chance of a 25bp Fed cut by March 2025 with this jumping to 94% by June 2025.

Expectations around slower Fed rate cuts are likely to set the tone for markets for the rest of 2024.

 

Yen rallies on dovish BoJ

The USDJPY has jumped roughly 400 pips this week thanks to a hawkish Fed and dovish BoJ.

BoJ rates were left unchanged as expected but Ueda’s dovish commentary surprised markets.

He stated that more information on Japan wages and Trump’s policies was needed before the BoJ could decide on a rate hike path.

This dented expectations around the BoJ hiking interest rates next month. Traders are now seeing a less than 50% probability of a January 2025 hike.

The Yen weakened further on this development, already battered by a hawkish Fed in the previous session.

Looking at the charts, the technical bullish levels discussed in our week ahead report were hit with prices back within intervention zones.

usdjpyf


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

NZD/USD at a New Low: The Problem is the US Dollar and Local GDP

By RoboForex Analytical Department

NZD/USD has dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, trading around 0.5620. The currency pair is under pressure from two major factors: the strengthening US dollar and New Zealand’s weak domestic economic data.

The primary driver of the decline in NZD/USD is the robust performance of the US dollar. Following the Federal Reserve’s December meeting, the greenback gained considerable strength due to expectations of subdued rate cuts in 2025. Throughout Wednesday, the NZD dropped by 2.3% against the US dollar, underscoring the impact of a hawkish Fed outlook.

The second factor contributing to NZD’s weakness is poor domestic economic performance. New Zealand’s GDP data has reinforced concerns that the economy is in recession. In Q3 2024, GDP contracted by 1.0% quarter-on-quarter, following a revised 1.1% decline in Q2. On an annualised basis, the economy shrank by 1.5%, a sharp deterioration from the 0.5% contraction recorded in the previous quarter.

The GDP figures were worse than anticipated, heightening fears of a deeper recession and increasing the likelihood of further aggressive monetary easing by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Even before this latest data, the RBNZ had been more proactive than several other central banks in cutting interest rates, and the recent developments are likely to reinforce its dovish stance for 2025.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD

On the H4 chart, NZD/USD experienced a downward pullback from the 0.5785 level and broke through the 0.5690 support level. The current market structure indicates the formation of a downward wave targeting 0.5598. After reaching this level, a corrective move back to test 0.5690 from below is possible. Notably, the breakdown below 0.5690 has paved the way for further declines towards 0.5500, with the main target projected at 0.5454. This bearish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, with its signal line positioned below the zero mark and trending sharply downward.

On the H1 chart, NZD/USD is shaping a downward wave towards 0.5597. Before the decline resumes, a short-term correction to 0.5690 could occur. The next target would be 0.5500. This outlook is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, where the signal line is near the 80 mark and preparing to drop towards the 20 mark, indicating continued bearish momentum.

 

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

The Dow Jones has fallen for 9 consecutive trading sessions. Inflationary pressures are easing in Canada.

By JustMarkets

As of Tuesday’s close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down -0.61%, extending its losing streak to nine sessions. The S&P500 index (US500) was down -0.39%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost -0.43%. The US stocks declined on Tuesday as markets refrained from opening risky positions ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. After Wednesday’s meeting, the FOMC is expected to cut the target range for the federal funds rate by -25 bps. Markets will also be looking to Fed Chair Powell’s comments after Wednesday’s meeting for clues on the future direction of Fed policy. Jerome Powell’s recent comments noted reduced risks in the labor market, but persistent inflation has led to speculation of a rate cut, with a hawkish stance for the next meeting in 2025. If this scenario were to occur, it would boost the dollar index, which would negatively impact risk assets (euro, British pound, Mexican peso) and pressure precious metals (gold and silver).

The US retail sales report for November published on Tuesday came in stronger than expected, showing a resilient economy with strong consumer spending. However, it could prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next year when it updates its quarterly dot-com forecasts on Wednesday. The US retail sales for November rose by +0.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles for November rose by +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.4% m/m. US manufacturing production for November added +0.2% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

On Tuesday, shares of healthcare companies that own pharmacy benefit management units declined after Pfizer’s CEO said President-elect Trump is “very committed” to reforming pharmacy benefit management (PBM). As a result, Humana (HUM) closed down more than -10%, topping the list of S&P 500 losers. Meanwhile, Pfizer (PFE) stock price gained more than +4% and topped the list of top gainers in the S&P 500 after reaffirming its 2024 outlook and 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $2.80-$3.00, above the average consensus estimate of $2.89.

Canada’s annual inflation rate for November 2024 was 1.9%, down from 2% in the previous month and short of market expectations of 2%. The result was in line with the Bank of Canada’s baseline scenario, which sees CPI inflation remaining near the 2% threshold for the foreseeable future. However, the average prime rate remained unchanged at 2.7% instead of expectations of a cut to 2.5%, limiting the extent of rate cuts that can be undertaken by the monetary authorities to promote economic growth.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down on Tuesday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by -0.33%, France’s CAC 40 (FR 40) closed up +0.12%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) lost -1.62%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down -0.81% yesterday. European equities continued to decline amid new pessimistic economic signals ahead of monetary policy decisions by major central banks this week. In terms of data, the Ifo business climate index for Germany fell more than expected, while the ZEW economic sentiment index unexpectedly rose. Swaps put the odds of a -25bp ECB rate cut at the January 30 meeting at 100% and the odds of a 50bp rate cut at the same meeting at 10%.

WTI crude oil held above $69 a barrel on Wednesday. API data showed that US crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels last week, beating forecasts for a 1.9 million barrel decline, which would mark the fourth consecutive decline if confirmed by official data later on Wednesday. Oil prices remain under pressure due to renewed concerns over Chinese demand, driven by unexpectedly weak Chinese consumer spending data. These concerns are compounded by forecasts of a significant rise in non-OPEC+ production next year.

Asian markets traded flat yesterday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by -0.24%, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) added +0.67%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) lost -0.48%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) was positive +0.78% yesterday.

The Westpac-Melbourne Institute of Australia’s leading economic index for November 2024 rose by +0.1% month-on-month after rising +0.2% in the previous month. This was the index’s first positive reading in 2.5 years amid optimism that economic growth will pick up slowly over the next few quarters. Australia’s GDP is forecast to grow from 0.8% y/y currently to 2.2% by the end of 2025.

S&P 500 (US500) 6,050.61 −23.47 (−0.39%)

Dow Jones (US30) 43,449.90 −267.58 (−0.61%)

DAX (DE40) 20,246.37 −67.44 (−0.33%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 8,195.20 −66.85 (−0.81%)

USD index 106.98 +0.12 (+0.11%)

News feed for: 2024.12.18

  • Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • Thailand BoT Interest Rate Decision at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • Indonesian BI Interest Rate Decision at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+2);
  • US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+2);
  • New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).

By JustMarkets

 

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.