Energy

Archive for Energy – Page 3

Offshore wind farms connected by an underwater power grid for transmission could revolutionize how the East Coast gets its electricity

By Tyler Hansen, Dartmouth College; Abraham Silverman, Johns Hopkins University; Elizabeth J. Wilson, Dartmouth College, and Erin Baker, UMass Amherst

Offshore winds have the potential to supply coastlines with massive, consistent flows of clean electricity. One study estimates wind farms just offshore could meet 11 times the projected global electricity demand in 2040.

In the U.S., the East Coast is an ideal location to capture this power, but there’s a problem: getting electricity from ocean wind farms to the cities and towns that need it.

While everyone wants reliable electricity in their homes and businesses, few support the construction of the transmission lines necessary to get it there. This has always been a problem, both in the U.S. and internationally, but it is becoming an even bigger challenge as countries speed toward net-zero carbon energy systems that will use more electricity.

The U.S. Department of Energy and 10 states in the Northeast States Collaborative on Interregional Transmission are working on a potentially transformative solution: plans for an offshore electric power grid.

Two illustrations show a line of wind farms, the first with each one individually connected to land and the second with all connected to a transmission backbone with only two connections to land. — How an offshore transmission backbone could reduce the number of transmission lines and land crossings.
Illustrations by Billy Roberts, NREL

At the core of this grid would be backbone transmission lines off the East Coast, from North Carolina to Maine, where dozens of offshore wind projects are already in the pipeline.

The plans envision it supporting at least 85 gigawatts of offshore wind power by 2050 – close to the U.S. goal of 110 GW of installed wind power by mid-century, enough to power 40 million homes and up from 0.2 GW today. The Northeast States Collaborative formalized their goals in July 2024 through a multistate memorandum of understanding.

Emerging research from the Department of Energy, the research company Brattle and other groups suggests that an offshore electric power grid could mitigate key challenges to building new transmission lines on land and reduce the costs of offshore wind power.

Cutting costs would be welcome news – offshore wind project costs rose as much as 50% from 2021 to 2023. While some of the underlying causes have subsided, such as inflation and global supply chain disruptions, interest rates remain high, and the industry is still trying to find its footing in the U.S.

What is an offshore electric power grid?

Today’s offshore wind projects use a point-to-point, or radial design, where each offshore wind farm is individually connected to the onshore grid.

This method works if a region has only a few projects, but it quickly becomes more expensive due to the cabling and other infrastructure. Its lines are also disruptive to communities and marine life. And it requires more costly onshore grid upgrades.

Coordinated offshore transmission can avoid many of those costs with what the Department of Energy calls “meshed” or “backbone” designs.

Rather than individual connections to land, many offshore wind farms would be connected to a shared transmission line, which would connect to the onshore grid through strategically placed “points of interconnection.” This way, electricity produced by an offshore wind farm would be transmitted to where it is most needed, up and down the East Coast.

A map shows lease areas, from South Carolina to Massachusetts. — Several areas along the Atlantic continental shelf have been leased for wind power development.
U.S. Department of the Interior, 2024

Even better, electricity generated onshore could also be transmitted through these shared lines to move energy to where it is needed. This could improve the resilience of power grids and reduce the need for new transmission lines over land, which have been notoriously difficult to gain approval for, especially on the East Coast.

Coordinated offshore transmission was part of early U.S. discussions on offshore wind planning and development. In the late 2000s when Google and partners first proposed the Atlantic Wind Connection, an offshore transmission project, the benefits in both offshore renewables and the entire energy system were intriguing. At the time, the U.S. had just one utility-scale offshore wind project in the pipeline, and it ultimately failed.

Today, the U.S. has 53 GW of offshore wind projects being planned or developed. As energy researchers, we believe coordinated offshore transmission is important for the industry to succeed at scale.

Offshore grid could save money, reduce impacts

By enabling power from offshore wind farms and onshore electricity generators to travel to more places, coordinated transmission can enhance grid reliability and enable electricity to get to where it is most needed. This reduces the need for more expensive and often more polluting power plants.

A 2024 report from the National Renewable Energy Lab found the benefits of a coordinated design are nearly three times higher than the costs when compared with a standard point-to-point design.

Studies from Europe, the U.K. and Brattle have pointed to additional benefits, including reducing planet-warming carbon emissions, cutting the number of beach crossings by a third and reducing the miles of transmission cables needed by 35% to 60%.

Three maps show how a backbone design connects systems all along the coast and requires fewer wind farm-to-land connections. — Three transmission designs show the difference between intraregional systems with several land connections and interregional and backbone designs. These three were investigated by the National Renewable Energy Lab in the Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study.
Illustrations by Billy Roberts, NREL

In the U.S., offshore transmission lines would be almost entirely in federal waters, potentially avoiding many of the conflicts associated with onshore projects, though it would still face challenges.

Challenges and next steps

Building an offshore grid will require some important changes.

First is changing government incentives. The federal investment tax credit for offshore wind, which covers at least 30% of the upfront capital cost of a project, does not currently help pay for coordinated transmission designs.

Second, planning needs to take everyone’s concerns into account from the beginning. While the overall benefits of coordinated transmission designs outweigh overall costs, who receives the benefits and who bears the costs matters. For example, more expensive power generators could earn less, and some communities feel threatened by offshore development.

Third, greater coordination will be needed among everyone involved to dispatch power to and from the regional grids. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s recent Order 1920, requiring power providers to plan for future needs, may serve as a blueprint, but it does not apply to interregional projects, such as an offshore transmission backbone connecting over a dozen states across three regions.

A pier with cranes and huge wind turbine blades, seen from the water — Several New England states are seeing economic growth from the offshore wind industry. Here, blades are prepared for shipping at a pier in New London, Conn.
Elizabeth J. Wilson, CC BY-ND

The U.S. reached an important milestone in March 2024 with the completion of South Fork Wind, the country’s first utility-scale wind farm, bringing U.S. offshore wind power capacity to nearly 200 megawatts. Eight more projects are under construction or approved for construction. Once built, they would bring installed capacity to over 13 gigawatts, roughly the same as three dozen coal-fired power plants.

An offshore transmission backbone could support offshore wind development and the East Coast’s energy needs for generations to come.

This article was updated July 31, 2024, to clarify that the states formalized the memorandum of understanding.

About the Authors:

Tyler Hansen, Research Associate in Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College; Abraham Silverman, Research Scholar, Ralph O’Connor Sustainable Energy Institute, Johns Hopkins University; Elizabeth J. Wilson, Professor of Environmental Studies, Dartmouth College, and Erin Baker, Professor of Industrial Engineering Applied to Energy Policy, UMass Amherst

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions

13 Aug

Brent Crude Oil Faces Demand Concerns Despite Recent Gains

By RoboForex Analytical Department

After five consecutive days of upward movement, Brent crude oil is now experiencing a consolidation phase, with prices retreating slightly to 81.80 USD per barrel on Tuesday. Market sentiment is being influenced by renewed concerns over global oil demand, particularly following OPEC’s downward adjustment of its demand forecasts for 2024 and 2025. This adjustment reflects weaker-than-expected economic data from China and reduced regional demand projections.

OPEC now estimates global oil demand will grow by 2.11 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down from its previous forecast of 2.25 million bpd. For 2025, the projection has been revised to 1.78 million bpd from 1.85 million bpd. These revisions are mainly due to the sluggish economic indicators emerging from China, a significant driver of global oil demand.

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East keeps market participants on edge. A new round of negotiations could be scheduled for Thursday, although there remains uncertainty about whether they will occur. Market players are particularly concerned about the potential for escalated conflicts involving Israel and Iran, which could disrupt oil supplies from the region and create further volatility in oil prices.

Technical analysis of Brent crude oil

The technical forecast on the Brent crude shows that the price is forming a consolidation range around 78.75 USD, with a recent upward breakout continuing the growth trend towards 81.97 USD. This level serves as a local target. Upon reaching this level, a correction back to 78.75 USD may occur, followed by a potential rise towards 82.40 USD. This bullish scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, which, despite being below zero, shows a clear upward trajectory.

On the H1 chart, Brent found support at 78.44 USD and is developing a growth structure towards 81.97 USD. Having already reached a local target at 81.90 USD, a corrective move to at least 80.17 USD could follow before resuming the upward trend. The stochastic oscillator, positioned near the 20 mark, indicates potential for upward movement, aligning with the broader bullish sentiment observed on the H4 chart.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News

07 Aug

Brent Oil Price Analysis: Anticipating a Correction

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil’s price increased to 76.88 USD per barrel on Wednesday, continuing to rise for the second consecutive session. This rebound helps mitigate previous losses, which were part of a broader market risk aversion phase.

Current market dynamics

Investor concerns about energy supply disruptions are heightening due to political developments in Hamas and ongoing unrest affecting Libya’s Sharara oil field. These factors contribute to apprehensions about potential threats to oil supply from the Middle East.

Additionally, the latest data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicated a modest rise in US oil inventories, less than market forecasts, which had anticipated a more considerable increase. This was the first inventory build in five weeks, adding a layer of complexity to market dynamics.

Broader economic concerns, including fears of a US recession and weak Chinese demand, continue to exert downward pressure on oil prices.

Technical analysis of Brent

The H4 chart suggests that Brent is progressing towards the 78.12 USD level. After reaching this target, a pullback to 76.33 USD could occur, potentially setting the stage for another upward movement towards 79.85 USD and extending to 81.37 USD. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with the signal line positioned for upward momentum from current lows.

On the H1 chart, Brent has established a consolidation range of around 76.33 USD. An upward breakout towards 78.12 USD is anticipated. Once this target is achieved, a retracement to 76.33 USD might follow. The Stochastic oscillator is poised near the 80 level, suggesting an impending downturn, which aligns with the expected corrective phase following the initial rise.

Market outlook

Investors should monitor further geopolitical developments and additional inventory reports, which could significantly influence oil price movements. The upcoming Federal Reserve communications and economic indicators will also be crucial in shaping market sentiment, especially concerning the potential for economic slowdowns, which could impact oil demand.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

24 Jul

Brent Oil Prices Decline Amid Inventory Reductions and Middle East Optimism

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices have continued their downward trajectory, reaching 81.14 USD per barrel as of Wednesday. This marks the fifth consecutive session of decline, primarily influenced by significant reductions in US oil inventories. The latest data from the API indicates a decrease of 3.9 million barrels, surpassing the forecasted reduction of 2.5 million barrels and marking the fourth consecutive week without a correction.

Concurrently, developments in the Middle East are also impacting oil prices. There is emerging optimism regarding ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas, which has helped alleviate some geopolitical pressures on oil prices. Additionally, concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies due to forest fires in Canada influence market dynamics, albeit helping to stabilise prices momentarily.

The strength of the US dollar continues to make commodities less attractive, as a stronger dollar typically reduces the purchasing power of other currencies in the commodities market.

Technical analysis of Brent

Brent oil is forming a consolidation range around the 80.80 USD level with an extension down to 79.76 USD. A further decline to 79.33 USD may occur. If the price exits this range on the upside, we might see the initiation of a growth wave targeting 84.24 USD. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, showing potential for new growth as it prepares at the lows.

The market has established a consolidation range around the 81.84 USD level. The target level of 79.76 USD has been reached with a downward exit. We anticipate a new consolidation range forming at these lows, potentially followed by another decline to 79.33 USD. If the price exits the range upward, a rebound to 81.44 USD could occur. The Stochastic oscillator, currently below the 50 level and heading towards 20, supports this potential downward movement.

Investors and market analysts must closely monitor these developments, as any significant changes in US monetary policy or geopolitical events could further influence oil prices.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

18 Jul

Brent Oil Price Trends Upward Amid Positive Market Signals

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil has reached $85.40, marking a continued increase over two consecutive sessions. This upward trend is primarily supported by recent US energy inventory statistics, which showed a significant decrease of 4.87 million barrels against an anticipated decline of 0.8 million barrels. This marks the longest stretch of inventory reductions since last September, underscoring a robust demand for oil.

Fueling the market optimism further, recent comments from Federal Reserve representatives suggest an imminent rate cut, with a 98% market expectation for this to occur in September. Lower interest rates typically stimulate economic activity, thereby boosting demand for oil.

Geopolitical tensions also play a role in the current price dynamics. Reports of renewed attacks by Hussite forces on vessels in the Red Sea have raised concerns about potential disruptions in oil supplies, prompting the market to add a risk premium to oil prices.

Brent technical analysis

Brent crude oil has shown a growth wave reaching 84.42. A consolidation range has been established around this level. If the market breaks above this range, we anticipate a move towards 86.10, which is the immediate target. After reaching this target, a retest of 84.42 could occur, potentially setting the stage for further growth towards 87.70 and possibly extending to 90.00. The MACD indicator supports this bullish outlook, indicating an upward trajectory from below the zero mark.

The market has found support at 84.42 and is progressing through a growth phase with an expected target at 86.10. We anticipate this target will be reached shortly, followed by a correction phase returning to 84.42. This view is supported by the Stochastic oscillator, which is nearing the 80 level, suggesting a potential pullback after the target is met.

Investors and traders should closely monitor these levels and the broader market context, including geopolitical developments and further signals from the Federal Reserve, as these factors will likely influence Brent’s price movements in the near term.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

15 Jul

Is the Carbon Credit Market Dead?

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/12/24)

We explain carbon credits, cover some of the system’s inherent problems, discuss future market growth and highlight some carbon credit streaming companies working hard to operate transparently.

Last year, scrutiny of the carbon credits/offsets market rose with media exposés on unethical carbon projects and system abuses. Despite issues with the system and harsh criticisms, the market is reportedly gaining traction.

Forecasts call for rapid growth over the next decade due to efforts by countries around the world to reach a net zero carbon status in the foreseeable future.

A Quick Primer

Carbon credits were introduced in 1997 as a way to lower carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Today, their purpose goes further, to help speed up decarbonization by offsetting global emissions.

“We are in a climate emergency, and we need every tool in the box to meet the 1.5 degrees C [global warming] target,” said Annette Nazareth, council chair of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market. “High-integrity carbon credits can mobilize private finance at scale for projects to reduce and remove billions of tons of emissions that would not otherwise be viable.”

Carbon credits allow a company or entity to emit CO2 or other greenhouse gases, specifically one ton of either per credit, according to Investopedia. Though these credits are akin to rations, companies earn them by avoiding, reducing, or removing carbon through a project verified by an independent third party.

As explained by Carbon Direct, “Carbon avoidance is an action that prevents a carbon-emitting activity from happening. Carbon reduction is an action that decreases the amount of greenhouse gas emissions compared to prior practices. Carbon removal is the process of removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and locking it away for decades, centuries, or millennia.”

After a project is verified, the company behind it receives the credits. Companies may either use, trade, or sell their credits.

Carbon Cowboys

While the concept is lofty, the carbon credit system has inherent problems. This has dampened companies’ confidence in it, which is reflected in the decrease in traded carbon credits in 2023, reported the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The world learned about one major abuse in 2006, when Gustav Daphne and three coconspirators were arrested for stealing €5−10 billion (€5−10B) from the European Union’s carbon emissions trading system, meant to facilitate transactions between member countries, according to an article by The Guardian. The scammers achieved “the fraud of the century,” the media called it, in just months, by exploiting a loophole in the market’s policy.

According to MIT News, “Several experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) now say that the system could be effective.”

The case of the Kariba REDD+ project in Zimbabwe illustrates two additional issues with carbon credit systems: a lack of transparency and accountability in where revenues from carbon-offsetting projects go and a lack of checks and balances in the verification process.

The Kariba project promised to conserve vast forest areas to sequester carbon and pass on benefits to the community by, for instance, investing in infrastructure and job creation. Reportedly, an independent third party verified the project, and it generated more than €100 million (€100M) from sales of carbon credits to Western companies. Yet only €14M of the proceeds went to the local villages, The Guardian reported. The other €86M went to the project broker/lead and local coordinator for costs and profits.

This very scheme has happened enough around the world, primarily in developing countries, that there is a name for groups involved in nature-based carbon markets just to make money from trading carbon: “carbon cowboys.” Like with Kariba, questions linger about the integrity and value of many projects.

Critics argue that forest carbon schemes often benefit international traders over local communities. More broadly, opponents of carbon credits/offsets claim they do not work and, sometimes, the associated projects harm the planet.

“Scientific studies and investigative have found that a growing number of projects failed to deliver the emission reductions promised,” reported Climate Home News on May 29. “Nongovernmental organizations have also denounced instances of human rights abuse and environmental damage caused by carbon-offsetting activities.”

Notable Growth Projected

Despite the controversy, the carbon credit/offset market is forecasted to skyrocket between 2023 and 2028 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31%, according to Market and Markets, even with the expectation that transparency and traceability will hamper its growth. By 2028, the market is projected to reach US$414.8B in value, more than 250 times the US$1.6B it was in 2023. The primary growth driver will continue to be the massive global effort to reach net zero carbon targets.

CarbonCredits.com highlighted Carbon Streaming Corp. as one of its Top 4 Carbon Stocks To Watch in 2024. The company, the first of its kind in the carbon credit market.

“Rising environmental concerns and government support are expected to offer lucrative opportunities for the market players in the next five years,” the report said.

Demand for voluntary carbon markets (VCMs), marketplaces in which entities may buy, sell, or trade carbon credits, is growing. Thus, the voluntary carbon credit market is projected to expand at a 27% CAGR between 2024 and 2032, according to Global Market Insights. During this period, the market value is forecasted to reach US$21.7B, up from US$2.4B.

In the U.S. in May, the Departments of Treasury, Agriculture, and Energy and White House representatives published a joint policy statement that laid out seven principles for responsibly participating in VCMs and ensuring they are effective, fair, and equitable, noted a White House fact sheet.

Carbon Streaming Isn’t Over

While bad actors may have previously polluted the carbon credit market, there are companies striving to operate transparently, and some experts consider the system worth looking into.

According to MIT News, “Several experts at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) now say that the system could be effective, at least in certain circumstances, but it must be thoroughly evaluated and regulated.”

Base Carbon

One company, Base Carbon (BCBN:NEO; BCBNF:OTCMKTS), is working to set standards for transparency in the sale of carbon credits. Base Carbon is a carbon credit company focusing on carbon capital allocation, project origination, and data transparency tools. According to the company, its primary objective is to allocate “capital directly into carbon reduction projects and carbon development companies.”

According to Base Carbon, “Pledges to lower carbon emissions now cover 92% of GDP and 88% of emissions worldwide. However, emission reduction, capture, and sequestration technologies are not yet scaled to meet these targets, creating a growing demand for quality carbon credits.”

Base Carbon aims to aid in this divide by connecting project developers who need financing and credit buying who may be searching for reputable carbon credits for their individual climate pledges.

In terms of renewing credibility in the carbon market, CEO Michael Costa stated, “Our mission is to simplify the carbon credit economy, and we are working to become the trusted financier within the voluntary carbon markets.”

One of the ways it does this is through data transparency tools. The company’s data standardization frameworks help capture and organize information from initial carbon emission sources. This process transforms raw data into valuable, usable components within the carbon credit ecosystem. By ensuring the accuracy and consistency of project-generated data, the company hopes to build a solid foundation of trust for our investment decisions and collaborative efforts.

You can see Base Carbon’s list of projects in the image below.

While past “bad apples” in the carbon credit space may have put a bad taste in investors’ mouths, Base Carbon is not slowing down anytime soon. As an article from Green Investing notes, “There’s a never-ending list of potential factors that turn people away from the space. This can either be seen as a contrarian opportunity or a reason to look elsewhere. Regardless, Base Carbon is going to continue advancing in the industry.”

The article solidified this opinion by sharing Base Carbon’s upcoming catalysts, which include:

The company will likely become profitable this year (2024).
Base Carbon has 8.1 million credits to be issued from its cookstove and household devices projects, which Green Investing believes could result in US$50 million in revenue.
Announcements about deals to sell carbon credits or get government approval for these sales.
New developments from current partnerships and more potential projects in the works.
More information about the company’s joint investment plan with STX Group to be released.
Streetwise Ownership Overview*
Base Carbon (BCBN:NEO;BCBNF:OTCMKTS)

	Retail: 65.54%
	Strategic Investors: 16.79%
	Management & Insiders: 10.57%
	Institutions: 7.1%

65.5%

16.8%

10.6%

7.1%

^*Share Structure as of 7/11/2024
Source: Thomson Reuters

Graham Mattison of Water Tower Research also sees promise in Base Carbon, as shown in a May 1 research note. Mattison wrote he saw “continued execution across all projects,” a growing cash flow, and “multiple potential catalysts ahead” for Base Carbon.

He wrote, “The current market cap of Base Carbon is ~US$40 million; the Vietnam project alone will deliver cash of ~US$29.1 million in the next 12 months.”

According to Reuters, 10.57% of the company is with management and insiders.

16.79% is with strategic investor Abaxx Technologies Inc.

7.10% is with institutions.

The rest is with retail.

According to the company, Base Carbon has a market cap of US$46.8 million, US$0 in debt, US$667,391 in cash, and 117.1 million shares outstanding as of May 16, 2024.

Market Watch notes that the company trades in the 52-week range between US$0.2025 and US$0.4520.

Carbon Streaming Corp.

Base Carbon is not alone in its mission to make carbon credits more attractive to the market. Carbon Streaming Corp. (NEO-NETZ; OTC-OFSTF) is also working on changing this perspective as part of a corporate turnaround following a drop in its stock price to CA$0.50 per share from CA$15.

The largest investor in the company, Marin Katusa of Katusa Research, is spearheading the changes. He willingly became a technical and financial adviser to the board at no cost, he said, to benefit all shareholders.

Certain changes at the management and board level were required to make the company a success for shareholders, which in turn will enable more investments to help improve the environment, in my eyes,” he told Streetwise Reports. “I trust the individuals I’ve asked to be on the board fully, and I believe we [the shareholders] are in good hands moving forward.” The new interim chair is Olivier Garret, and the interim chief executive officer is CEO Christian Milau.

Katusa also provided Carbon Streaming’s five-part plan for moving forward:

Go through the existing deals and see what we are dealing with. I don’t have an answer for anyone at this point, but I will within 120 days. I will be involved in the technical review of the projects with the new board.
Immediately meet with all existing employees and figure out who we want to keep and who needs to move on and pursue a new venture. Getting rid of the ridiculous compensation that was taken by certain prior management members has now stopped, and further cuts to G&A will be put into place.
In addition to 1&2 above, we have initiated a search both internally and externally for a new permanent CEO. There are two individuals currently employed at NETZ who did catch my eye as the potential to rise to the occasion, and every person at the firm will be given every opportunity to see if the CEO role is the right one. The culture of the company has already changed immediately after replacing the former CEO, and this is a chance for anyone in the firm to rise from the ashes or move on. Christian and the rest of the new NETZ board have the same “business culture” as my own, as does Alice Schroeder, and that will be paramount moving forward.
Moving forward, when it comes to Voluntary Carbon Markets — I’ll be encouraging Carbon Streaming will adopt my rule from 2022, only invest in the VCM market if there is an offtake in place for the credits. No offtake, no investment in the voluntary market.
We will look at all projects, assets, etc., to return shareholder value.

Unlike the company’s previous practice, Katusa said the board members now will only receive the standard options, no cash, no deferred or restricted stock units, nor any other form of compensation “third-party consultants justify.”

About the new culture Katusa is working to achieve, he commented, “This is a win for the shareholder rights. I am proud of this result. It wasn’t easy, but we got what we needed to give this company a chance to succeed. We live to see another day, and I’m expecting big things.”

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Carbon Streaming Corp. (NEO-NETZ; OTC-OFSTF)

	Retail: 93.52%
	Management & Insiders: 6.46%
	Institutions: 0.02%

93.5%

6.5%

^*Share Structure as of 6/7/2024

Source: Thomson Reuters

On July 3, 2024, the company also announced it had closed its acquisition with Blue Dot Carbon Corp. Blue Dot is a private company with an equity investment in a carbon project developer and certain option rights to invest in future removals (reforestation) projects of its partners.

CarbonCredits.com highlighted Carbon Streaming Corp. as one of its Top 4 Carbon Stocks To Watch in 2024. The company, the first of its kind in the carbon credit market, “expects moderate and then rapid growth of credits in the coming years, peaking near 20 million (20M) credits per year by 2027,” the article indicated. “Its unique business model could help it outperform the competition.”

On June 7, Jack Gilleland of the American Association of Individual Investors gave Carbon Streaming Corp. a Value Score of 62, which, according to the article, he considers good.

According to Reuters, management and insiders hold 6.5% or 3.12M shares of Carbon Streaming. In this category, Ross Beaty owns 2.9%, or 1.39M shares.

The company has one institutional investor, Black Diamond Asset Management Inc., which holds 0.02%, or 0.01M shares.

The rest of the company, 93.48%, is with retail.

Carbon Streaming has 47.97M shares outstanding and 44.85M free float traded shares.

Its market cap is CA$31.51M. Its stock price range over the past 52 weeks was CA$0.46−$1.47 per share.

Pioneer Key Carbon Ltd., A Private Co.

Most of the large carbon credit companies are private. These include Carbon by Indigo, Nori, TrueCarbon by TrueTerra, Bayer Carbon Program, and Nutrien Ag.

Another carbon credit streamer striving to be transparent is Key Carbon. Headquartered in Vancouver, British Columbia, this private company finances and supports developers of carbon projects around the world and is building a diversified portfolio of carbon credit streams and royalties. Corporations and other entities may purchase Key Carbon’s voluntary carbon credits to help them achieve their climate and sustainability goals.

“We will be a large environmental services company,” Luke Leslie, co-founder and chief executive officer of Key Carbon Ltd., told Streetwise Reports. “We want to do that to service these projects in a way others can’t, with cutting-edge monitoring systems to provide the data to better understand the impact.”

How it works is Key Carbon selectively chooses a carbon project after rigorously vetting its developer. The company pays the developer upfront in return for a portion of future carbon credits, as defined in an exclusive financing agreement created by Key Carbon. It receives the credits once an independent third party, such as Verra, verifies the project. Then Key Carbon sells the credits to corporations or groups that need them to offset their carbon emissions. Key Carbon also continues to support the developer with strategy and operational improvements.

Current partners of Key Carbon include BURN, Africa’s leading clean cooking company, and Worldview International Foundation, a nonprofit organization that has pioneered 680 sustainable development projects in 26 countries.

BURN is a small project with a big impact, in which Key Carbon has invested US$36M. Through BURN, they provide fuel-efficient cookstoves to families cooking on open fires, a practice that has caused 4M premature deaths, noted Leslie. Cookstoves use less fuel, are safer, and free up users’ time.

Key Carbon’s work with Worldview is an example of a higher-value project that Key Carbon has helped fund. This project consists of reforestation of native trees, specifically mangroves.

With Key Carbon’s portfolio, an estimated 41.2 million tons of carbon will be removed or avoided, according to the company’s website.

The types of projects Key Carbon could partner on are numerous, Leslie said, given that “the carbon markets have 200 ways to generate carbon credit.”

As for catalysts, Key Carbon will close a US$15M financing this month, moving it closer to its goal of raising US$100M by year-end, Leslie said. The company is continuing to build out direct sales channels and acquire biodiversity businesses. Also, of course, additional partnerships and project deals could also move the stock.

Carbon Industry Surviving

While so-called “carbon cowboys” may have sullied the name of carbon credits, these three companies, Base Carbon, Carbon Streaming, and Key Carbon, and growth forecasts might be showing that the carbon credits industry is surviving the negative aspects is very much alive, and is expanding.

These companies are working to ensure transparency and efficiency within the companies and to create a sustainable army in the fight against the climate crisis.

Important Disclosures:

As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Key Carbon Ltd.
Doresa Banning and Katherine DeGilio wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provide services to Streetwise Reports as an independent contractor/employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

Energy Opinions

10 Jul

AI Data Centers, EVs to Lead New Surge in Energy Demand

Source: Streetwise Reports (7/9/24)

With Electric Vehicles (EVs) and a swarm of new products requiring more power, experts agree that a surge in demand is coming, and soon. Here are several companies that can get you exposure to this important and growing resource.

With Electric Vehicles (EVs) and a swarm of new products requiring more power, experts agree that a surge in demand is coming, and soon.

But the nation’s largest utility companies are warning the surge could be unlike anything seen since the widespread adoption of heat pumps and air conditioners pushed demand sky-high in the 20th Century, according to a June 30 piece by Spencer Kimball for CNBC.

This time the engine of growth will come from power-hungry artificial intelligence data centers, EVs, and the expansion of computer chip manufacturing, he wrote.

“In absolute terms, the growth in electricity demand from these two segments, EVs and data centers, is equivalent to the total electricity demand of a country such as Turkey, that the U.S. has to take on,” said Rystad Energy analyst Surya Hendry in a June release on the issue. “This growth is a race against time to expand power generation without overwhelming electricity systems to the point of stress. If you envision cleaner roads and sustainable AI for the future, renewable energy is the key to meeting this demand and providing the scalability needed for U.S. power systems to endure.”

The tech giants — Amazon, Alphabet’s Google, Microsoft, and Meta — are looking for more power as they bring data centers online that can require as much as a gigawatt of electricity, Petter Skantze, vice president of infrastructure development at NextEra Energy Resources, told CNBC.

“To put that in context, a gigawatt is equivalent to the capacity of nuclear reactor,” the CNBC report noted.

Skantze’s parent company is NextEra Energy, the largest power company in the S&P utilities sector by market capitalization.

“This is a different urgency coming,” Skantze told the Reuters Global Energy Transition conference in New York recently, according to CNBC. “They need this load to drive the next iteration of growth. They’re showing up now at the utility and they’re banging on the door and they’re saying I need to put this resource on the grid.”

The Spark: AI Data Centers, EVs Demand Power

Rystad Energy’s research predicted that data centers and EVs alone will add 290 terrawatt hours (TWh) of new demand by 2030.

“Overall, the combined expansion of traditional and AI data centers, along with chip foundries, will increase demand cumulatively by 177 TWh from 2023 to 2030, reaching a total of 307 TWh,” noted Rystad, an independent research and energy intelligence company. “Despite data centers currently representing a relatively modest portion of total electricity demand in the U.S., this marks a more than two-fold increase compared to 2023 levels, which stood at 130 TWh, highlighting the efforts of the U.S. to position itself as a global data center hub.”

Rystad said the reliance on coal in the U.S. has diminished. This is expected to continue while overall power generation is expected to rise.

“The power mix will increasingly be defined by renewable energy growth and declining coal generation, supported by the Inflation Reduction Act and lowering costs for solar and wind generation technologies,” analysts wrote. “Most states are embracing renewable energy and natural gas in comparison to coal plants, in an effort to become greener and achieve climate goals. Overall, natural gas will continue to dominate much of the US power mix for the next decade, but renewable energy will play an increasingly important role.”

Solar PV capacity is expected to increase by 237 gigawatts (GW) between 2023 and 2030, while wind capacity is projected to grow by 78 GW, Rystad said. The strong growth from these two sources should be sufficient to meet the rising power demand brought by data centers and EVs in the US, while continuing to displace coal in the generation mix.

Southern Co., the second-largest utility in the U.S. by market cap, headquartered in Atlanta, said supplying the demand needed all of America’s future needs is a matter of economic and national security.

Chief Executive Officer Chris Womack told CNBC’s Kimball that nuclear power also has “got to be a big part of this mix.”

“Energy security brings national security, also brings about and supports economic security,” Womack said. “We’ve got to balance and meet the needs of sustainability. But — to ensure that we can continue to have a growing, a thriving economy — we got to get the energy piece right.”

There are some companies that investors can look at to get exposure to this revolution, including one that focuses on renewable sources, another that has created a sustainable battery that could help store all of this energy, and uranium explorers looking to supply future nuclear reactors.

Revolve Renewable Power Corp.

Revolve Renewable Power Corp. (TSXV:REVV; OTCQB:REVVF) was formed 12 years ago to capitalize on the growing global demand for renewable power. It develops utility-scale wind, solar, and battery storage projects in the US, Canada, and Mexico. Its second division, Revolve Renewable Business Solutions, installs and operates sub-20MW “behind the meter” distributed generation (or “DG”) assets.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Revolve Renewable Power Corp. (TSXV:REVV;OTCQB:REVVF)

	Management & Insiders: 60%
	Retail: 40%

60.0%

40.0%

^*Share Structure as of 2/1/2024

Source: Revolve Renewable Power Corp.

Its portfolio includes 11 Megawatts (net) of operating assets under long-term power purchase agreements across Canada and Mexico covering wind, solar, battery storage, and hydro generation; a 3 Megawatt (MW) CHP project and a 450 Kilowatt peak (kWp) rooftop solar project that are both under construction and expected to be operational later this year; and a diverse portfolio of utility-scale development projects across the U.S., Canada, and Mexico that have a combined capacity of over 3,000 MWs, as well as a 140 MW+ distributed generation portfolio that is under development.

Revolve has developed and sold over 1,550MW of projects so far. Going forward, Revolve said it is targeting 5,000 MW of utility-scale projects under development and is rapidly growing its portfolio of revenue-generating DG assets in parallel.

The company reported renewable energy generation of 3,877,342 kWh for the three-month period and 4,822,522 kWh for the nine-month period ending March 31, 2024.

During that quarter, Revolve completed the acquisition of WindRiver, a Canadian-based renewable energy operator and developer, enhancing its portfolio with additional hydro and wind projects.

About 60% of the company is owned by insiders and management, Revolve said.

Top shareholders include Joseph O’Farrell with 13.21%, Roger Norwich with 12.15%, the CEO and Director Stephen Dalton with 6.01%, President and Director Omar Bojoquez with 4.82%, and Jonathan Clare with 1.84%, according to Reuters and the company.

The rest is retail.

Revolve has a market cap of CA$22.06 million with 63.04 million shares outstanding and 38.08 million free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.50 and CA$0.20.

BioLargo Inc.

BioLargo Inc. (BLGO:OTCQB) plans to revolutionize the way energy is stored during the transition. It recently announced it has manufactured “liquid sodium” prototype battery cells that are long-lasting and safer than lithium-ion batteries.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

BioLargo Inc. (BLGO:OTCQB)

	Retail: 85%
	Insiders & Management: 15%

85%

15%

^*Share Structure as of 2/20/2024

Source: Thomson Reuters

BioLargo’s Cellinity™ battery cells have no runaway fires or risk of explosion, don’t decrease in performance over thousands of uses, and store more energy per unit of weight than lithium batteries, the company noted.

The company also said the battery is not self-discharging and does not have outgassing or parasitic load for cooling, and all of the materials in it can be sourced in North America without the need for rare earth elements.

The batteries have a unique chemistry involving molten salt electrolytes that “imparts substantial benefits over lithium-ion chemistry,” the company noted in a release.

“The world needs a reliable, safe, and eco-friendly alternative to lithium batteries, and we believe our Cellinity battery will meet these needs,” BioLargo President and Chief Executive Officer Dennis P. Calvert said.

BioLargo is made up of several subsidiaries that work in different sectors, a “family of products,” including ONM Environmental, BioLargo Engineering, BioLargo Water, BioLargo Energy Technologies, Clyra Medical Technologies, and the new BioLargo Equipment Solutions & Technologies Inc. (BEST) subsidiary.

Technical Analyst Clive Maund said on July 2 BioLargo’s stock “looks better than ever” as a “range of factors strongly suggest that it will now embark on another upleg.”

“Amongst the bullish factors to observe here is the increase in upside volume in recent weeks, with the Accumulation line showing remarkable strength and advancing to new highs, indicating that the stock has continued to be accumulated even as it has corrected back in a downtrend from its February peak,” Maund wrote.

About 14.6% of BioLargo is owned by insiders and management, according to Yahoo Finance. They include Chief Science Officer Kenneth Code with 8.44%, CEO Calvert with 3.32%, and Director Jack Strommen with 1.64%, Reuters reported.

About 0.04% is held by the institution First American Trust, Reuters said.

The rest, about 85%, is retail.

Its market cap is US$80.15 million, with about 296.84 million shares outstanding and about 254.71 million free-floating. It trades in a 52-week range of US$0.45 and US$0.15.

Skyharbour Resources Ltd.

Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (SYH:TSX.V; SYHBF:OTCQX; SC1P:FSE) has an extensive portfolio of uranium exploration projects in Canada’s Athabasca Basin, with 29 projects, 10 of which are drill-ready, covering over 587,000 hectares of mineral claims.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Skyharbour Resources Ltd. (SYH:TSX.V; SYHBF:OTCQX; SC1P:FSE)

	Institutions: 55%
	Retail: 40%
	Management and Insiders: 5%

55.0%

40.0%

5.0%

^*Share Structure as of 4/4/2024

Source: Skyharbour Resources

On Tuesday, the company announced initial results from more than 3,000 meters of drilling from Phase One of its 2024 winter drilling program at the Russell Lake Uranium Project in the central core of the Eastern Athabasca Basin. Second phase results from more than 2,800 meters of drilling are still pending.

The best intercept of uranium mineralization historically on the property was discovered in hole RSL24-02 during Phase One, which returned a 2.5-meter-wide intercept of 0.721% U3O8 at a relatively shallow depth of 338.1 meters, including 2.99% U3O8 over 0.5 meters at 339.6 meters just above the unconformity in the sandstone, the company said.

This high-grade intercept is a new discovery at the recently identified Fork Target, Skyharbour noted in a release.

“The discovery of multi-percent, high-grade, sandstone-hosted uranium mineralization at a new target is a major breakthrough in the discovery process at Russell — something that hasn’t been seen before at the project with the potential to quickly grow with more drilling,” President and Chief Executive Officer Jordan Trimble said.

In addition to exploring for high-grade uranium deposits, Skyharbour utilizes a prospect generator strategy by bringing in partner companies to advance its secondary assets.

Partner companies include Azincourt Energy Corp. (AAZ:TSX.V; AZURF:OTC), Thunderbird Resources Ltd. (THB:ASX) (formerly Valor Resources Ltd.), Basin Uranium Corp. (NCLR:CSE; BURCF:OTC; 6NP0:FRA), and Medaro Mining Corp. (MEDA:CNX). More recently, two earn-in option agreements have been signed with Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. to option the South Falcon East project, as well as North Shore Uranium Ltd. to option the Falcon project.

Jeff Clark, who just took over Gwen Preston’s The Maven Letter, which has now been christened Paydirt Prospector, said both the management team and the company’s projects themselves are impressive.

“Skyharbour is fully funded, sitting on CA$7M in cash,” he said in a June 26 Streetwise Reports article.

Management, insiders, and close business associates own approximately 5% of the company. According to Reuters, the CEO Trimble owns 1.54%, and Director David Cates owns 0.70%.

Institutional, corporate, and strategic investors own approximately 55% of the company. Denison Mines owns 6.3%, Rio Tinto owns 2.0%, Extract Advisors LLC owns 9%, Alps Advisors Inc. owns 9.91%, Mirae Asset Global Investments (U.S.A) L.L.C. owns 6.29%, Sprott Asset Management L.P. owns 1.5%, and Incrementum AG owns 1.18%, Reuters reported.

There are 182.53 million shares outstanding with 177.73 million free float traded shares, while the company has a market cap of CA$66.62 million and trades in a 52-week range of CA$0.33 and CA$0.64.

Tisdale Clean Energy Corp.

One of Skyharbour’s partner companies is British Columbia-based Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. (TCEC:CSE; TCEFF:OTCQB; T1KC:SE), which is advancing the South Falcon East uranium project just outside the southeast part of Saskatchewan’s Athabasca Basin, as part of an earn-in agreement with Skyharbour.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. (TCEC:CSE; TCEFF:OTCQB; T1KC:SE)

	Retail: 79.46%
	Strategic Investors: 15.5%
	Management and Insiders: 5.04%

79.5%

15.5%

5.0%

^*Share Structure as of 6/20/2024

Source: Tisdale Clean Energy Corp.

Nearby, big uranium companies are operating, including Cameco Corp. (CCO:TSX; CCJ:NYSE), Denison Mines Corp. (DML:TSX; DNN:NYSE.MKT), NexGen Energy Ltd. (NXE:TSX; NXE:NYSE.MKT), and Rio Tinto Plc (RIO:NYSE; RIO:ASX; RIO:LSE; RTPPF:OTCPK), Technical Analyst Clive Maund highlighted on June 11.*

“They would not be there without good reason, so the chances of [Tisdale] making a significant discovery are high,” wrote Maund.

The 12,234-hectare South Falcon East property encompasses the near-surface Fraser Lakes Zone B deposit. It has a historical Inferred resource of about 7 million pounds of U3O8 at 0.03% and 5.3 million pounds of thorium dioxide at 0.023% within 10,354,926 tons using a U3O8 cutoff grade of 0.01%.

Maund recommended the stock as a Strong Buy for all time horizons. In his report, he explained that though the stock has been declining in price since last spring, it is showing signs, on its one-and-two-year charts, that it is “set to reverse to the upside soon.”

Tisdale provided a breakdown of the company’s ownership and share structure, where CEO Alex Klenman owns 5.04% of the company with 1,591,300 shares.

Planet Ventures Inc. owns approximately 12% of the company, with 3.88 million shares, while Skyharbour Resources owns approximately 3.5%, with 1.11 million.

Tisdale has 31.54 million outstanding shares and 26.6 million free-float traded shares.

Over the past 52 weeks, the company has traded between CA$0.08 and CA$0.40 per share and has a market cap of CA$3.15 million.

North Shore Uranium Ltd.

Another uranium option is another Skyharbour partner, North Shore Uranium Ltd. (NSU:TSX), which is preparing for a follow-up drill program at Falcon and, later, a maiden drill campaign at West Bear, which are both uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin.

Streetwise Ownership Overview*

North Shore Uranium Ltd. (NSU:TSX)

	Retail: 55%
	Management & Insiders: 45%

55%

45%

^*Share Structure as of 5/16/2024

Source: North Shore Uranium

“We think we’ve just scratched the surface at Falcon,” President and Chief Executive Officer Brooke Clements said in an interview on RCTV. “More work is clearly warranted on the discoveries we made this winter. We have a lot of untested, high-priority targets that we want to evaluate.”

Both projects, about 90 kilometers (90 km) apart, are at the basin’s eastern margin, an area with much less past exploration than the expanse to the west. Both projects have historical exploration data, now in the hands of North Shore, which complemented it with airborne gravity surveys over each property in 2022. Both projects boast established uranium potential.

Clements said for the 55,000-hectare Falcon project, North Shore completed its maiden drill program earlier this year. It selected the drill targets after analyzing various historical data sets and the results of airborne geophysical surveys done in 2006, 2007, and 2022, said Clements.

Red Cloud Securities Analyst David Talbot described the drill results in a March research report. “In our view, the structures and alteration typical of basement-hosted uranium mineralization [were] identified by this initial drill program,” he wrote. “We see the results as a positive first step.”

Before the next drill program, said Clements, North Shore is analyzing its extensive geophysical and geological database along with data from the drill program and plans to go into the field to investigate some of the priority targets. North Shore also intends to drill the West Bear property in the future.

Among the reasons investors should consider North Shore, Clements said, are its ownership by insiders and founding investors, tight share structure, and attractive valuation.

Insiders and founding investors who are not insiders own approximately 45% of the issued and outstanding shares. Clements himself owns 3.43% or 1.26 million shares, Director Doris Meyer has 2.11% or 0.78 million shares, and Director James Arthur holds 1.45% or 0.53 million shares.

Most of the rest is with retail, as the institutional holdings are minor.

North Shore has 36.81 million outstanding shares.

The company has a market cap of CA$3.31 million at the recent price of CA$0.09 per share. It has traded in the past 52 weeks between CA$0.08 and CA$0.30 per share.

Important Disclosures:

BioLargo Inc., Revolve Renewable Power Corp., Skyharbour Resources Ltd., and Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. are billboard sponsors of Streetwise Reports and pay SWR a monthly sponsorship fee between US$4,000 and US$5,000. In addition, North Shore Uranium Ltd. and Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. have a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pay a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Azincourt Energy Corp., BioLargo Inc., North Shore Uranium Ltd., Revolve Renewable Power Corp., Cameco Corp., and Tisdale Clean Energy Corp.
Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
This article does not constitute investment advice and is not a solicitation for any investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her personal financial adviser and perform their own comprehensive investment research. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

* Disclosure for the quote from the Clive Maund article published on June 11, 2024

For the quoted article (published on June 6, 2024), Tisdale Clean Energy Corp. paid Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, US$1,500 in addition to the monthly consulting fee.
Author Certification and Compensation: [Clive Maund of clivemaund.com] is being compensated as an independent contractor by Street Smart, an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, for writing the article quoted. Maund received his UK Technical Analysts’ Diploma in 1989. The recommendations and opinions expressed in the article accurately reflect the personal, independent, and objective views of the author regarding any and all of the designated securities discussed. No part of the compensation received by the author was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed

Clivemaund.com Disclosures

The quoted article represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maund’s opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications. Although a qualified and experienced stock market analyst, Clive Maund is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Therefore Mr. Maund’s opinions on the market and stocks cannot be only be construed as a recommendation or solicitation to buy and sell securities.

Energy Opinions

25 Jun

Brent crude oil hits two-month high amid geopolitical tensions

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil prices surged to $86 per barrel on Tuesday, marking the highest level in two months. This rise was driven by escalating geopolitical risks in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, particularly the ongoing confrontation between Israel and Hamas, which shows no sign of abating despite the involvement of international mediators backed by the US.

On the demand side, uncertainties persist. China, the world’s largest oil importer, continues to face significant economic challenges, contributing to the volatile market sentiment. The retail sector in China is under pressure following disappointing results from the mid-year online sales, with Chinese consumers showing reluctance to spend amidst concerns about personal wealth, the ongoing property market crisis, delayed wages, and high youth unemployment. These factors are critical as they jeopardise China’s GDP growth target of around 5% for the year.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent is currently advancing towards the $86.50 level, which is identified as the immediate target. Once this level is reached, a potential correction to $81.60 may occur, testing from above. Subsequently, the market might initiate a new growth wave aiming for $89.00, with potential to extend up to $94.00. This bullish outlook is supported by the MACD indicator, whose signal line is above zero and climbing steeply.

On the H1 chart, Brent found support at $84.00 and is now progressing through the latter stages of the current growth wave. The market has already achieved the $85.24 mark. We anticipate the formation of a narrow consolidation range around this level, with a breakout above potentially leading to further growth towards $86.50. This scenario is technically reinforced by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line poised above 20 and gearing up for an ascent to 80.

Market outlook

Investors should closely monitor developments in geopolitical hotspots and economic indicators from major economies like China and the US, as these could significantly sway oil prices. The current trajectory suggests bullish momentum for Brent crude, but the volatile nature of geopolitical events and economic data releases warrants cautious optimism.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

18 Jun

Brent oil has risen in price: reliance on stock market demand has worked

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market was adjusted moderately on Tuesday morning after the price of Brent crude oil rose by 2% the day before. A barrel of the North Sea variety is at about 84 USD.

The main support factor currently is the improving prospects for global demand. Additionally, there are expectations that global oil producers will restrain supply.

The latest oil market reports from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency and the US Department of Energy suggest a steady increase in energy demand in the second half of 2024.

Yesterday’s surge in Brent’s price was also supported by an increase in the value of the entire range of risky assets. This is due to reduced inflationary pressures in the world’s largest economies. Such signals strengthen the bet on lowering the cost of lending in the coming months.

The proposal is underpinned by the collaborative efforts of key OPEC+ member countries, including Russia and Iraq, which have confirmed their intentions to adhere to the agreed production quotas. Saudi Arabia has also expressed its readiness to adjust production volumes to fully account for market conditions.

Technical analysis of Brent

On the H4 Brent chart, the market has formed a consolidation range above the 81.60 level. Today, the price has moved up from this range, continuing to develop a wave of growth to the level of 86.40. After achieving this level, we anticipate a correction to 81.60. Next, we expect the trend to continue to the level of 89.00. This scenario is technically confirmed by the MACD indicator, with its signal line above the zero mark and directed strictly upwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, the market received support at 81.56 and began the development of the second half of the growth wave. At the moment, the local target at the level of 83.98 is fulfilled. Today, a link of growth to 84.00 is possible. Next, we expect a correction link to the level of 82.76 (test from above), followed by an increase to the level of 86.40. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator. Its signal line is below the level of 20 and is preparing for the start of growth.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

11 Jun

Brent Crude Oil stabilises around 81.50 USD amid demand optimism

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Brent crude oil is holding steady at 81.50 USD per barrel on Tuesday, following a significant surge of over 2.5% the previous day. The price increase was driven by optimistic market expectations about fuel demand this coming summer and news that the US government is seizing the opportunity to replenish its strategic oil reserves at relatively low prices, with a particular focus on oil priced around 79 USD per barrel.

As the US Federal Reserve meeting commences today, market caution is expected. The recent robust employment data for May from the US suggests that the Fed might maintain a tight monetary policy longer than anticipated. This potential shift in policy could dampen US economic growth prospects and impact energy demand, making the Fed’s forthcoming statements highly significant for the oil market.

Additionally, market participants eagerly await the release of the American Petroleum Institute (API) report on crude oil and petroleum product inventories today and the Department of Energy’s similar report on Wednesday. These data releases, along with the monthly market reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), OPEC, and the International Energy Agency (IEA) later in the week, could further influence oil price dynamics.

Brent technical analysis

On the H4 chart, Brent has completed the initial wave of growth to 81.79. Currently, a consolidation range is expected to form below this level. Should there be a downward breakout, a correction towards 79.30 could occur, followed by a potential new wave of growth aiming for 83.30. Breaking this level could open the pathway to 87.50, the local target of the upward trend. The MACD indicator supports this bullish scenario, with its signal line below zero but directed sharply upwards.

On the H1 chart, after reaching 81.79, Brent is forming a consolidation range beneath this level. A downward exit could initiate a decline to 80.50, and further breaking this level could extend the correction to 79.30. Upon reaching this level, an upward movement to 81.80 is anticipated, potentially leading to further growth towards 83.30. This scenario is technically supported by the Stochastic oscillator, indicating a potential upward movement, as its signal line is currently poised at 20.

Market outlook

As investors navigate a week packed with significant data releases and central bank meetings, Brent crude prices will likely exhibit volatility. The outcome of the US Federal Reserve’s deliberations will be particularly pivotal, given its potential implications for economic activity and energy demand. Additionally, inventory data and global market reports from major energy agencies will provide further clues about supply and demand trends, which could either support the current price levels or drive further adjustments.

Disclaimer

Energy Financial News

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