Archive for Energy – Page 11

24 Jul

The Crude Oil Market Relies on Demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department

As the new week in July kicks off, the commodities market is in high spirits. The price of Brent crude oil has surged to 81.00 USD per barrel. The oil sector is responding to rising global tensions, which may have adverse effects on the supply of energy resources. However, demand expectations are stable, and are driving prices upward.

There are growing concerns about the potential displacement of a portion of biofuels by oil and its derivatives, particularly amidst complications with the extension of the “grain deal.” This further supports the upward trend in commodity prices.

According to Baker Hughes data, drilling activity in the US has decreased. The number of oil rigs fell by 7 units to 530, and the number of gas rigs decreased by 2 units to 131.

Technical Analysis of the Brent oil price chart:

On the H4 chart, Brent is currently developing a third wave of growth. Having reached 81.40 USD, a consolidation range is expected to form just below this level. A breakout above this range would likely lead to the continuation of the upward wave, targeting 81.81 USD. Surpassing this level could open the potential for further growth towards 84.00 USD, with the possibility of continuing the upward trend to 85.00 USD. Technically, the MACD indicator confirms this scenario; with its signal line above the zero mark, it is showing a clear upward direction, indicating potential new highs.

On the H1 chart, Brent completed an upward wave to 81.04 USD, followed by a correction to 80.30 USD. After the correction, an upward wave is anticipated to begin targeting 81.80 USD. This target is local. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator also supports this outlook, with its signal line above the 50 mark, indicating a readiness to continue rising towards the 80 mark.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
23 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as three of the energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts and one was unchanged.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,666 contracts) with Gasoline (3,379 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (2,261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,007 contracts) and Heating Oil (-6,608 contracts) while the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0 contracts) saw no change on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,768,18933206,09917-233,4908427,39134
Gold482,10428193,34862-213,7154120,36731
Silver146,8633643,86281-55,9832612,12134
Copper216,86256-3,55028-1,054714,60448
Palladium16,017100-8,35008,837100-48712
Platinum65,8345415,73652-19,674533,93821
Natural Gas1,234,29656-95,7623465,0846530,67853
Brent128,2482-45,7702242,386793,38455
Heating Oil331,7904921,39267-42,7853821,39372
Soybeans659,91719107,28331-81,46369-25,82040
Corn1,285,1761319,8702431,26881-51,13841
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar881,02044196,30660-226,2294129,92341
Wheat303,40710-38,7033943,03563-4,33258

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) leads energy at the top of their respective ranges and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (22.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (17.7 percent)
Natural Gas (33.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.4 percent)
Gasoline (47.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.9 percent)
Heating Oil (66.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (16.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Natural Gas (12.3 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (12.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.7 percent)
Gasoline (16.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.5 percent)
Heating Oil (0.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.0 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 206,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.336.54.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.749.73.3
– Net Position:206,099-233,49027,391
– Gross Longs:359,341645,94185,755
– Gross Shorts:153,242879,43158,364
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.084.433.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4-8.22.9

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.652.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.319.45.4
– Net Position:-45,77042,3863,384
– Gross Longs:11,05367,32210,271
– Gross Shorts:56,82324,9366,887
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.278.755.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.61.435.3

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.439.65.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.234.43.1
– Net Position:-95,76265,08430,678
– Gross Longs:252,375489,06568,430
– Gross Shorts:348,137423,98137,752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.865.452.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-11.0-9.0

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.042.26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.560.73.7
– Net Position:56,786-68,01711,231
– Gross Longs:106,199154,69324,973
– Gross Shorts:49,413222,71013,742
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.547.887.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.6-24.242.1

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.246.815.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.859.68.8
– Net Position:21,392-42,78521,393
– Gross Longs:47,142155,11950,474
– Gross Shorts:25,750197,90429,081
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.538.472.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-22.247.9

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.582.20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.272.80.2
– Net Position:-5,6515,515136
– Gross Longs:9,66248,086270
– Gross Shorts:15,31342,571134
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.316.353.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.616.1-2.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
17 Jul

Brent Failed to Rise Despite Improved Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Crude oil prices have paused in their rally. Brent quotes on Monday dropped to 79.20 USD per barrel.

One of the reasons for this local decline might be the market decision to lock in a part of the profit after the steady growth earlier. This version is also supported by the fact that today is the first work day after the weekend.

At the same time, the commodity market sentiment improved noticeably over the last week. Large investment houses still expect a shortage in crude oil supply in the second half of this year, which looks like a favourable factor, keeping in mind the current demand parameters.

The buyers are equally supported by the fundamental background. The geopolitical situation in Libya is unstable, which might lead to problems with the supply of energy carriers.

Technical analysis of Brent:

On the H4 Brent chart, the structure of the third wave of growth is developing. At a certain point, the quotes rose to 78.00. A consolidation range formed around this level, the price broke it upwards and extended to 81.45. Today the market is correcting this growth. A technical return to 78.00 is expected with a test of this level from above. Next, a rise to 84.00 is to follow. This is a local target. After the quotes reach this level, a new correction to 78.00 could develop, followed by an increase to 85.00. This is the first target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is at the highs, moving out of the histogram area, which is a signal in favour of a decline to zero.

On the H1 Brent chart, a corrective wave to 78.00 is developing. After it is over, a wave of growth to 84.00 is expected to start. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is under 20, ready to go on growing to 50. And if this level also breaks, the potential for a rise to 80 could open.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
15 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas 

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,004 contracts) with Natural Gas (12,020 contracts), Gasoline (7,393 contracts), Heating Oil (301 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (95 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil with a decrease of -8,158 contracts also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-11-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,796,34836173,4339-196,6889323,25526
Gold483,17028165,75450-187,7495121,99535
Silver120,282620,29247-31,6495611,35729
Copper197,78541-11,157217,915783,24239
Palladium15,772100-8,27208,765100-49312
Platinum71,007727,78734-13,912656,12550
Natural Gas1,236,80256-86,7553755,5546231,20154
Brent134,6628-48,0311846,617871,41428
Heating Oil320,0014428,00079-47,7283119,72867
Soybeans622,5091190,86325-77,18070-13,68368
Corn1,241,94077,8112335,21581-43,02652
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar877,69543196,30460-226,0304129,72641
Wheat297,1467-40,4113845,50665-5,09556

 

Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) and Heating Oil (79.0 percent) lead the energy close to the top of their respective ranges. Gasoline (41.9 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength scores currently and are in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (34.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (32.6 percent)
Gasoline (41.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (29.7 percent)
Heating Oil (79.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (83.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent), Gasoline (9.5 percent) and Natural Gas (7.7 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (15.8 percent)
Natural Gas (7.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.4 percent)
Gasoline (9.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-2.1 percent)
Heating Oil (18.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (35.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.3 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 173,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 32,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.939.05.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.249.93.7
– Net Position:173,433-196,68823,255
– Gross Longs:339,297700,01989,390
– Gross Shorts:165,864896,70766,135
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.593.025.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-0.9-14.1

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.254.15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.819.54.5
– Net Position:-48,03146,6171,414
– Gross Longs:13,70472,8347,524
– Gross Shorts:61,73526,2176,110
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.787.428.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.5-4.7-40.2

 

Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.439.25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.434.73.2
– Net Position:-86,75555,55431,201
– Gross Longs:251,784484,75870,705
– Gross Shorts:338,539429,20439,504
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.461.554.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-7.80.0

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.844.46.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.262.54.3
– Net Position:53,407-62,1648,757
– Gross Longs:95,389152,40723,514
– Gross Shorts:41,982214,57114,757
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.956.571.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-13.823.9

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,699 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.346.014.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.660.98.5
– Net Position:28,000-47,72819,728
– Gross Longs:52,184147,07646,782
– Gross Shorts:24,184194,80427,054
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.030.566.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-39.552.4

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 95 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.186.60.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.276.70.2
– Net Position:-5,6515,508143
– Gross Longs:6,69848,079269
– Gross Shorts:12,34942,571126
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.316.254.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.015.1-0.8

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
08 Jul

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 03 2023 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (17,049 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (3,041 contracts) and Heating Oil (3,599 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-5,975 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,666 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-350 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-03-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,816,04337141,4291-170,1489928,71937
Gold448,06312163,09749-184,7175321,62034
Silver114,421017,99044-29,5695811,57931
Copper204,399461,88832-4,003682,11532
Palladium14,781100-7,89008,358100-46814
Platinum69,383708,06734-13,570655,50342
Natural Gas1,241,41957-98,7753368,3136730,46252
Brent127,0191-39,8733438,114701,75933
Heating Oil305,6813827,69978-41,8104014,11147
Soybeans610,352890,97325-71,92472-19,04955
Corn1,246,983846,4032852476-46,92746
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar863,84340199,36861-229,7133930,34542
Wheat297,9337-45,4643451,05370-5,58954

 

Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index and Heating Oil

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) and Heating Oil (78.4 percent) lead the energy near the top of their respective ranges.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a Bearish-Extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (34.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Natural Gas (32.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (35.0 percent)
Gasoline (29.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (32.5 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (71.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (85.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by Heating Oil

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (35.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week.

Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) and Gasoline (-2.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (15.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.4 percent)
Gasoline (-2.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.6 percent)
Heating Oil (35.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (27.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-13.9 percent)

Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 141,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.540.64.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.750.03.2
– Net Position:141,429-170,14828,719
– Gross Longs:316,998737,22887,049
– Gross Shorts:175,569907,37658,330
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.236.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.611.09.0

 

Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.750.06.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.120.05.2
– Net Position:-39,87338,1141,759
– Gross Longs:14,88263,5428,338
– Gross Shorts:54,75525,4286,579
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.070.033.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-14.6-11.3

 

Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.539.65.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.534.13.1
– Net Position:-98,77568,31330,462
– Gross Longs:254,883491,19869,432
– Gross Shorts:353,658422,88538,970
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.666.752.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-5.1-2.3

 

Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.045.77.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.662.74.6
– Net Position:46,014-54,4808,466
– Gross Longs:86,285146,03123,246
– Gross Shorts:40,271200,51114,780
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.767.869.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.1-3.122.3

 

#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.944.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.858.09.7
– Net Position:27,699-41,81014,111
– Gross Longs:54,613135,61143,667
– Gross Shorts:26,914177,42129,556
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.439.947.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.1-40.022.5

 

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.886.80.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.176.80.2
– Net Position:-5,7465,553193
– Gross Longs:6,51448,124294
– Gross Shorts:12,26042,571101
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.916.455.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.315.30.2

 

Article By InvestMacro – Receive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

COT Updates Energy Financial News
07 Jul

Murrey Math Lines 07.07.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent quotes have broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4 and are now above it, indicating a probable development of an uptrend. The RSI has rebounded from the support line. In this situation, further growth to the resistance level of 6/8 (78.12) is to be expected. The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of 4/8 (75.00). In this case, the quotes could drop to the support of 3/8 (73.44).

Brent_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a rise to 6/8 (78.12) on H4.

Brent_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes remain in the overbought area on H4. The RSI is testing the resistance line. In this situation, a test of 8/8 (4375.0) is expected, followed by a breakout and a drop to the support at 7/8 (4296.9). The scenario can be cancelled by a rise above the resistance level of +1/8 (4453.1). In this case, the quotes could continue growing and reach +2/8 (4531.2).

S&P500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a price decline.

S&P500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Energy Financial News
20 Jun

Brent Crude Oil Price Sees Slight Decline as Energy Demand Concerns Persist

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of Brent crude oil commenced the new week in June with a marginal decline, reaching $75.70 per barrel.

Investor uncertainty regarding the expansion of energy demand remains a significant factor restricting the potential for price increases in the “black gold” market. There are currently no clear indications from global economies, particularly the United States and China, suggesting a rapid acceleration in GDP growth. Moreover, various pressures on economies, such as disruptions in the supply chain and subdued consumer demand, further contribute to this situation.

It is worth highlighting the weakened position of the US dollar, which provides some local support for oil prices. During periods of US currency depreciation, commodities tend to become more appealing for investment.

Technical Analysis:

On the H4 timeframe, Brent crude oil appears to be forming the structure of a third upward wave. Currently, it has risen to 76.06, and the market continues to consolidate around this level. There is a possibility of a breakout above this range, leading to the continuation of the third wave towards 79.19. Following the attainment of this level, a corrective pullback to 76.66 cannot be ruled out. Subsequently, there is a potential for further growth towards 80.60. The technical analysis supports this scenario, as the MACD indicator’s signal line has recently broken above the zero level, displaying confident growth towards new highs.

On the H1 timeframe, Brent has already formed an upward wave structure, reaching 76.06. The market is presently consolidating around this level, indicating a pattern of a continued upward trend. The projected target for this wave of growth is 79.30. Technical confirmation is provided by the Stochastic oscillator, with its signal line surpassing the level of 50 and exhibiting steady growth towards 80.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
14 Jun

Brent Crude Oil Prices Experience Decline Amidst Market Factors

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market is currently being impacted by various factors, causing Brent crude oil prices to decline. Currently, the price of a barrel of Brent is hovering around $72.35, reflecting a loss of approximately 4% within a 24-hour period.

Bearish sentiment in the oil market has been bolstered by Goldman Sachs’ updated price forecast. The investment bank now estimates that the average price per barrel will drop to $86.00, down from the previous forecast of $95.00 at the end of last year. Similarly, the outlook for WTI has worsened, with expectations declining from $89.00 to $81.00 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs analysts had previously held a more optimistic view on oil prices.

Furthermore, the pressure on commodity prices is being exerted by market anticipation of interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Both central banks are scheduled to hold their meetings later this week, on Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 timeframe, Brent crude oil is currently forming a wide consolidation range, centered around 74.55. However, the market has extended this range downwards to 71.55, indicating a potential for further correction. Today, we expect to see a potential upward movement towards 74.55, which will be tested from below. Following this, a downward trend towards 71.10 and subsequent upward movement towards 78.50 cannot be ruled out. This is the initial target. Technically, this scenario is supported by the MACD indicator, as its signal line is currently below zero and preparing to exit the histogram area, suggesting potential price growth.

On the H1 timeframe, Brent crude oil is currently following an upward wave structure towards 73.10. Once the price reaches this level, a downward correction towards 72.30 may occur. Subsequently, if the price reaches the 72.30 level, a further rise towards 74.55 is anticipated. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator, as its signal line continues to decline towards 50. Once it reaches this level, an upward movement towards 80 is expected to begin.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
14 Jun

Will faster federal reviews speed up the clean energy shift? Two legal scholars explain what the National Environmental Policy Act does and doesn’t do

By J.B. Ruhl, Vanderbilt University and James Salzman, University of California, Los Angeles 

The National Environmental Policy Act, enacted in 1970, is widely viewed as a keystone U.S. environmental law. For any major federal action that affects the environment, such as building an interstate highway or licensing a nuclear power plant, NEPA requires relevant agencies to analyze environmental impacts, consider reasonable alternatives and accept public input. It also allows citizens to sue if they believe government has not complied.

Critics argue that NEPA reviews delay projects and drive up costs. In May 2023 negotiations over raising the federal debt ceiling, President Joe Biden agreed to certain changes to NEPA reviews, which both the White House and congressional Republicans said would streamline permitting for infrastructure projects. Legal scholars J.B. Ruhl and James Salzman explain these changes and what they mean for protecting the environment and expanding clean energy production.

What kinds of projects typically require NEPA reviews?

The statutory text of NEPA is quite sparse and open-ended. When people speak of what NEPA requires, they really are talking about how the White House Council on Environmental Quality, or CEQ, federal agencies and the courts have implemented the law over the past 50 years.

The simple requirement is for agencies to create a detailed statement on the impacts of any major federal action that significantly affects the environment. A whole body of law and policy creates filters that sort projects into different NEPA buckets.

NEPA requires all federal agencies to analyze the environmental impacts of their major actions, consider alternatives and receive public comment.

First, only projects that will be carried out, funded or authorized by a federal agency are subject to NEPA. That’s a pretty big universe, but it also excludes a lot. For example, a wind farm built on private land by a private utility might not require any federal funding or approval. That means it wouldn’t be subject to NEPA.

If a project is subject to NEPA, the federal agency that has primary oversight assesses its impacts to decide how much analysis is needed. Many agencies use a classification known as categorical exclusions to winnow out minor actions that they know have no significant impacts, either individually or cumulatively. For example, the Interior Department categorically excludes planned burns to clear brush on areas smaller than 4,500 acres.

If the expected impacts are more extensive, but it’s not clear by how much, the agency can prepare an environmental assessment. If that assessment finds the impacts to the human environment will not be significant, that’s the end of the NEPA process.

If the impacts are significant, the agency will prepare a full-blown environmental impact statement, or EIS, which is a far more intensive process. CEQ guidelines establish an elaborate template of topics agencies must evaluate, and the public has opportunities to comment on a draft version.

A CEQ review of EISs prepared by all federal agencies from 2010 through 2018 found that, on average, it took about four and a half years to issue an EIS, not including added time if someone sued. The lengths of these reviews ranged widely but averaged 575 pages.

Flow chart showing numerous steps in the NEPA process.
A schematic of the NEPA process.
NASA

If an agency conducts lots of the same actions under a particular program, such as timber leasing on federal land, it might conduct a high-level programmatic EIS to cover the large-scale issues and then follow up with individual NEPA analyses for specific projects.

Decisions not to issue an EIS can be challenged in court. So can the EIS itself if critics believe that it’s inadequate.

What are NEPA critics’ central arguments?

Critiques of NEPA come from many different interests. The law mainly affects land development, industry and resource extraction activities such as logging, mining and drilling for oil and gas, particularly on federal public lands.

NEPA requires an impact assessment, but it doesn’t prescribe any particular outcome. Still, it unquestionably can add substantial time and cost to any significant project. If a project is controversial, interested parties can submit public comments that get their views on the record. If opponents aren’t happy with the final EIS, they can sue the agency responsible for the decision in federal court.

Between agency review and litigation, NEPA can add many years to a project’s development timeline before it is “shovel ready.” For example, it takes roughly four to seven years to complete environmental reviews for prescribed burns that the U.S. Forest Service carries out to reduce wildfire risks.

Supporters argue that NEPA reviews have avoided many bad decisions. In our view, the NEPA process is an important feature of the country’s stewardship of its natural resources. But we also share the growing concern that it can be used to delay building renewable energy infrastructure that the U.S. urgently needs to mitigate climate change.

Did the debt ceiling agreement significantly change the NEPA process?

Many of the changes are little more than tweaks. Others codify long-standing practices based on how the Council on Environmental Quality, agencies and courts implement the law.

One notable change is requiring a single lead agency and a single environmental impact statement for projects, even when those projects require multiple agency approvals. There also are some new time and page limits. For example, environmental impact statements will be required to be completed within two years and be no more that 150 pages long for most projects, and 300 pages for the most complex projects.

There also are some changes to definitions, such as what constitutes a “major federal action,” that narrow NEPA’s scope to some degree, although it will take time to sort out their meaning. Overall, we do not see these changes as a major overhaul of NEPA.

Will the changes speed up work on clean energy systems?

Maybe, but not nearly as much as needed. First, NEPA applies to projects that need federal funding or approval, such as under the Endangered Species Act. Getting that money or agency green light can also involve delays and litigation independent of the NEPA review.

Second, many state and local laws can affect large renewable energy projects, and those statutes can also be used to slow projects down. The bottom line is that to move the needle, politicians will have to do more to reform the project review process.

The debt ceiling agreement left several big questions unaddressed. They include where to build high-voltage electric transmission lines; which federal public lands and offshore waters can be used for power lines and renewable power production; and where to mine for essential minerals.
Beyond those immediate priorities, if carbon sequestration technology can be developed and scaled up, the U.S. will need an enormous buildout of carbon capture and storage infrastructure to meet net-zero goals.

As renewable energy scales up in the U.S., local opposition could impede some utility-scale projects.

All of these involve incredibly complex permitting processes, and tweaking NEPA won’t change that. Other hot-button issues – including federal preemption of state and local laws, impacts on Native American cultural lands, and environmental justice – will make further permitting reforms politically difficult.

Even this first small measure was hotly contested, and happened now only because it was tied to the debt limit legislation. As the inclusion of federal approval for the Mountain Valley gas pipeline in the debt ceiling agreement shows, in politics you need a quid in exchange for a quo. We expect to see a lot more deal-making if Congress takes permitting reform seriously.The Conversation

About the Authors:

J.B. Ruhl, Professor of Law, Director, Program on Law and Innovation, and Co-director, Energy, Environment and Land Use Program, Vanderbilt University and James Salzman, Professor of Environmental Law, University of California, Los Angeles

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Energy Opinions
15 May

Crude Oil Price Continues to Fall

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Oil continues to fall at the start of another May week. A barrel of Brent crude fell to 73.70 USD.

The sell-off in the commodities market has been ongoing for several weeks. Investors tried to get a foothold above 78.00 USD, but their attempts failed. The OPEC report, which normally looks optimistic, did not give investors any reason to buy this time. The main trigger for selling remains fears that the high interest rates around the world will put pressure on global economic activity. This, in turn, will reduce the demand for energy commodities.

Data from Baker Hughes showed that US drilling activity declined. Gas rigs were primarily affected (-16) but oil rigs also declined (-2).

On H4, Brent has worked its way up to the 77.44 level.  The market continues to develop a correction today. A decline to 72.33 is expected, followed by a new wave of growth to 80.07. After its breakdown, a new growth potential could open to the level of 87.77. The target is local. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below zero, with growth to new highs expected.

On H1, a consolidation range has formed around the 74.87 level. The market has escaped it downwards today. A decline to 72.56 is expected, followed by a rise to 74.87 and a decline to 72.33. After the price reaches this level, a wave of growth to 80.00 could begin. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: Its signal line is breaking through the level of 20 upwards, aiming at 50. A rebound from this level is expected, followed by a new decline to 20. Next, growth to 80 could follow.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Energy Financial News
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