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Archive for Energy – Page 11

Crude hovers above critical support

By ForexTime

  • Crude oil tumbles towards key $79 support
  • Prices still remain above moving averages
  • ADX indicator signals weak bearish move
  • Bears could attack 50 EMA if $79 support breached
  • A rebound from $79 could re-open doors to $83

Crude oil prices broke through the $83 resistance level which held for 184 trading days to close at $84.25 on 9th August 2023, and since then have declined back towards the $79 support level at the time of writing.

This decline is in no little way thanks to negative economic data out of China, the world’s largest exporter of goods, and with key levels in sight it may continue further.

Sitting above the important $79 price, a level not broken since the 25th of July, bears will be looking for a close below for Crude prices to extend their decline albeit with the moving averages in sight.

Crude is above its moving averages signaling a bullish trend, but with prices’ reversion to the mean, we see the moving averages contract, signaling a drop in momentum but much more, a pending impulse move in waiting.

A break below the psychologically important price level of $79 could see prices test the 50-day EMA, a potentially strong support area given, the cluster of moving averages.

With a failure to break the $79 price level bulls may be emboldened to return and push price back to test the $83 resistance handle while seeking highs above $84.91, reached at the false break.

A move to the upside could see the emergence of a golden cross- this is when 50-day EMA crosses over the 200-day EMA to the upside-, signaling a strong uptrend.

Further clarity may be gotten from the ADX – an indicator that shows us trend strength.

At the time of writing, we see the ADX continue its decline toward the 20-point threshold.

This decline started after the ADX peaked on the 1st of August as Crude prices approached the psychologically important $83 price level, signaling a weak bullish run nearing its possible end. This ADX decline has continued, following Crude price declines from the $84.91 highs of 10th August 2023, signaling a tame bearish move for the past 5 trading days.

Both bulls and bears will be looking for an upward sloping ADX with the DI+ and DI- respectively, locked in step, for a confirmation of their bias.


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Murrey Math Lines 11.08.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In these circumstances, the quotes are expected to break the 4/8 (87.50) level and reach the resistance level at 5/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 3/8 (84.38). In this case, the quotes could drop to 2/8 (81.25).

BRENTH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, price growth might be additionally supported by a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel.

BRENT_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes have broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4 and are now below it, which indicates a potential downtrend. The RSI has rebounded from the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 2/8 (4453.1) level, break it, and fall to the support at 1/8 (4414.1). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the resistance at 3/8 (4492.2). In this case, the S&P 500 index could return to 4/8 (4531.2).

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price decline.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 04.08.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent quotes are hovering above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. As a result, in this situation, the price is expected to grow further to the nearest resistance at 4/8 (87.50). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 3/8 (84.38). In this case, the Brent quotes could return to 2/8 (81.25).

BrentH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel has been broken, which increases the probability of a further price rise.

Brent_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, which indicates a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is nearing the resistance line. Currently, the price is expected to test the 4/8 (4531.2) level, rebound from it and decline to the support at 2/8 (4453.1). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the resistance at 4/8 (4531.2). In this case, the S&P 500 index could continue to rise and reach 5/8 (4570.3).

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, after the price tests the 4/8 (4531.2) level, an additional signal for the price to fall could be a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,097 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (3,420 contracts), Heating Oil (3,106 contracts) and Gasoline (1,965 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-1,359 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-522 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The WTI Crude Oil speculative positioning has risen for four straight weeks and has added a total of +86,808 contracts to the current bullish spec position in just these past four weeks. The current speculator standing for WTI is now at the highest level in thirteen weeks, dating back to April 25th.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-25-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,743,59831225,19622-250,9768025,78031
Corn1,280,2071270,47632-6,96675-63,51024
Natural Gas1,185,63846-97,1213370,9726826,14942
Sugar911,18551219,81469-251,3973331,58343
Soybeans676,64322134,98242-116,87656-18,10657
Gold476,17625173,63953-198,2104724,57142
Heating Oil324,6104624,49872-48,4682923,97081
Wheat311,33915-20,5555227,40151-6,84650
Copper234,713701,15932-3,904682,74536
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Silver146,8983636,92571-49,7183412,79337
Brent135,1858-42,3502939,044723,30654
Platinum64,1974815,48751-20,441514,95434
Palladium16,760100-8,37708,899100-52210

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) and the Heating Oil (72.4 percent) lead the energy category currently.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Natural Gas (33.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.8 percent)
Gasoline (50.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.5 percent)
Heating Oil (72.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent), Gasoline (10.7 percent) and Natural Gas (10.3 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-6.6 percent)
Natural Gas (10.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.3 percent)
Gasoline (10.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (16.6 percent)
Heating Oil (6.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (0.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.6 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 225,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.136.85.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.251.23.5
– Net Position:225,196-250,97625,780
– Gross Longs:350,507642,19586,919
– Gross Shorts:125,311893,17161,139
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.880.330.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-15.6-6.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.051.86.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.322.93.9
– Net Position:-42,35039,0443,306
– Gross Longs:14,81069,9818,633
– Gross Shorts:57,16030,9375,327
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.071.953.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.3-12.12.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.740.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.934.03.5
– Net Position:-97,12170,97226,149
– Gross Longs:245,779473,71967,603
– Gross Shorts:342,900402,74741,454
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.367.842.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.3-6.5-22.9

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 58,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.541.46.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.560.33.7
– Net Position:58,751-69,17310,422
– Gross Longs:111,892152,04324,044
– Gross Shorts:53,141221,21613,622
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.846.182.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-17.836.8

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.545.117.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.060.19.7
– Net Position:24,498-48,46823,970
– Gross Longs:50,444146,54855,411
– Gross Shorts:25,946195,01631,441
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.429.381.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-28.149.0

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.282.60.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.772.40.1
– Net Position:-6,1735,973200
– Gross Longs:9,52448,544279
– Gross Shorts:15,69742,57179
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 13.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.318.055.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.0-1.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Green Tech Co. Signs Letter of Intent to Sell First Solar Tower

Source: Streetwise Reports  (7/25/23)

For this green tech company looking to save space on solar power installations, the agreement is proof that its technology is commercially legitimate.

Green tech company Three Sixty Solar (VSOL:NEO;VSOLF:OTC) announced it had signed a non-binding letter of intent for the sale and installation of its first solar tower.

The agreement with Cattail Crossing Golf and Winter Club in Sturgeon County, Alberta, indicates the club’s intent to install a Three Sixty Solar tower to generate power for the golf course and the clubhouse.

Three Sixty’s solar towers build up instead of out to save space, rising vertically instead of covering acres of ground horizontally, leaving up to 80% to 90% more room for other economic or preservation purposes.

“They have substantial power needs and don’t want to give up their land because, obviously, that takes up space they need for the course,” Three Sixty Solar Chief Executive Officer Brian Roth told Streetwise Reports.

For Three Sixty, it’s an important step and a proof of concept for the technology, he said.

Three Sixty’s technology is a “big deal” because most solar farms are in rural areas, leading to energy leakage getting the electricity across distances and to market, Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote.

“The biggest thing is just as we work through the commercialization process, it’s proof that it’s commercially legitimate and that people are willing to pay and move forward on projects that are not just demonstrations or R&D funded,” Roth said.

Three Sixty’s technology is a “big deal” because most solar farms are in rural areas, leading to energy leakage getting the electricity across distances and to market, Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote.

In addition, the vast areas of land consumed by these solar arrays generally mean that it can’t be used for anything else, so there is a serious opportunity cost loss as well, he said.

The company’s vertical tower arrays can be built virtually anywhere, including in cities, and they take up little space.

“Three Sixty Solar’s towers will eventually render all these vast acreages of solar panels all over the place obsolete,” Maund wrote. “This being so, its stock has the potential to appreciate by many thousands of percent.”

‘Ideal Solution’ Does Not Sacrifice Land

According to the letter of intent, the parties plan to begin a feasibility study on the site as quickly as possible with the goal of reaching a binding purchase order by Aug. 31.

According to a Stratistics MRC report, the global market for solar energy accounted for US$76 billion in 2020 and is forecasted to reach US$296 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%.

Cattail Crossing owner Mark Beck said the club had been looking for ways to add renewable energy to the operation, but he couldn’t find anything suitable for the land.

“The solar towers offered by Three Sixty are such a unique approach that we can easily make it fit and generate power for our irrigation systems, cart charging, and more,” Beck said. “We are looking forward to working with Three Sixty and becoming an advocate for the solar tower solution to our friends in the golf community.”

Three Sixty’s solar technology is an “ideal solution” for the club “to provide power for operations without sacrificing the land they need for the course and clubhouse,” Roth said.

The Catalyst: Targeting Net Zero Emissions

Driving the growth is an increase in pollution, a surge in rooftop applications, and increased adoption in agriculture, the report said.

Solar power uses photovoltaic cells and other technologies to capture the sun’s radiant energy, which is efficient and renewable and mitigates environmental risks coming from options creating greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the cost to install the equipment has dropped by 50% over the last decade, leading to the deployment of thousands of new systems in new markets.

Governments are giving big incentives, as well. Canada is targeting net zero emissions by 2050 and has launched a CA$964 million program, Three Sixty Solar said. The United States Inflation Reduction Act commits US$370 billion to fund green energy, and the European Union has an energy target of at least 32% from solar by 2030. The European Green New Deal envisions a climate-neutral continent by 2050.

Countries have been “throwing record amounts of money at these types of technologies and trying to green our electricity grid,” Roth said. “There’s just a huge opportunity to clean up our electricity production while . . .  being very cost competitive with the older technologies.”

According to a Stratistics MRC report, the global market for solar energy accounted for US$76 billion in 2020 and is forecasted to reach US$296 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%.

Demonstration Tower Declared a Success

There are three models of towers, which soar from 40 feet to 120 feet tall and produce as much as 250 kilowatts per tower, the company said. They are manufactured in Canada and the U.S., approved by a U.S.-licensed engineer, and support many solar panel brands.

A demonstration tower in Kelowna, British Columbia that was in operation for 16 months was declared a success after it survived a major windstorm with gusts as high as 84 mph, intense rain and hail, and a snowstorm with no structural or panel damage.

The vertical positioning of the panels on the tower also prevented snow from covering the panels, which often inhibits power production in flatter, ground-mounted installations, the company said.

The Cattail Crossing tower will be proof that the solar towers are commercially viable, Roth said.

“And it will be an opportunity for us to go through the delivery process and continue to refine that,” he said.

The tower’s design enables it to be built with different materials to survive threats in different environments, such as surviving earthquakes in California or surviving hurricanes in Florida.

Power production and add-ons like telecommunications arrays and EV charging stations are opportunities to create more recurring revenue from the towers, Roth said.

Three Sixty Solar has applied for patents with the World Patent Office and others in North America, the European Union, and Africa.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to the company, about 21% of Three Sixty Solar is held by management and insiders. The CEO Roth owns 3.43%, founder and Director Peter Sherba owns about 30%, and Director Scott McLeod owns about 0.21%, Reuters said.

About 28% is held by strategic investors, and the rest, about 51%, is retail.

Three Sixty Solar’s market cap is CA$20.23 million, with about 43.5 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$1.29 and CA$0.51.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Three Sixty Solar Ltd. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Three Sixty Solar Ltd.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

For additional disclosures, please click here.

The Crude Oil Market Relies on Demand

By RoboForex Analytical Department

As the new week in July kicks off, the commodities market is in high spirits. The price of Brent crude oil has surged to 81.00 USD per barrel. The oil sector is responding to rising global tensions, which may have adverse effects on the supply of energy resources. However, demand expectations are stable, and are driving prices upward.

There are growing concerns about the potential displacement of a portion of biofuels by oil and its derivatives, particularly amidst complications with the extension of the “grain deal.” This further supports the upward trend in commodity prices.

According to Baker Hughes data, drilling activity in the US has decreased. The number of oil rigs fell by 7 units to 530, and the number of gas rigs decreased by 2 units to 131.

Technical Analysis of the Brent oil price chart:

On the H4 chart, Brent is currently developing a third wave of growth. Having reached 81.40 USD, a consolidation range is expected to form just below this level. A breakout above this range would likely lead to the continuation of the upward wave, targeting 81.81 USD. Surpassing this level could open the potential for further growth towards 84.00 USD, with the possibility of continuing the upward trend to 85.00 USD. Technically, the MACD indicator confirms this scenario; with its signal line above the zero mark, it is showing a clear upward direction, indicating potential new highs.

On the H1 chart, Brent completed an upward wave to 81.04 USD, followed by a correction to 80.30 USD. After the correction, an upward wave is anticipated to begin targeting 81.80 USD. This target is local. Technically, the Stochastic oscillator also supports this outlook, with its signal line above the 50 mark, indicating a readiness to continue rising towards the 80 mark.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 18th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Gasoline

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as three of the energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while two markets had lower contracts and one was unchanged.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,666 contracts) with Gasoline (3,379 contracts), Brent Crude Oil (2,261 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-9,007 contracts) and Heating Oil (-6,608 contracts) while the Bloomberg Commodity Index (0 contracts) saw no change on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-18-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,768,18933206,09917-233,4908427,39134
Corn1,285,1761319,8702431,26881-51,13841
Natural Gas1,234,29656-95,7623465,0846530,67853
Sugar881,02044196,30660-226,2294129,92341
Soybeans659,91719107,28331-81,46369-25,82040
Gold482,10428193,34862-213,7154120,36731
Heating Oil331,7904921,39267-42,7853821,39372
Wheat303,40710-38,7033943,03563-4,33258
Copper216,86256-3,55028-1,054714,60448
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Silver146,8633643,86281-55,9832612,12134
Brent128,2482-45,7702242,386793,38455
Platinum65,8345415,73652-19,674533,93821
Palladium16,017100-8,35008,837100-48712

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) leads energy at the top of their respective ranges and is in a bullish extreme position (above 80 percent).

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and below 20 percent.

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.0 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.8 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (22.2 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (17.7 percent)
Natural Gas (33.8 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (37.4 percent)
Gasoline (47.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (41.9 percent)
Heating Oil (66.5 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (79.0 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that the Gasoline (16.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Natural Gas (12.3 percent) and WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.4 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (2.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (-6.6 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (10.5 percent)
Natural Gas (12.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (7.7 percent)
Gasoline (16.6 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (9.5 percent)
Heating Oil (0.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (18.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.6 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.0 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 206,099 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 32,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 173,433 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.336.54.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.749.73.3
– Net Position:206,099-233,49027,391
– Gross Longs:359,341645,94185,755
– Gross Shorts:153,242879,43158,364
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.084.433.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:8.4-8.22.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -45,770 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 2,261 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -48,031 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 22.2 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 78.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:8.652.58.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:44.319.45.4
– Net Position:-45,77042,3863,384
– Gross Longs:11,05367,32210,271
– Gross Shorts:56,82324,9366,887
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.7 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):22.278.755.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-6.61.435.3

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -95,762 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -9,007 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -86,755 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 65.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.8 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.439.65.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.234.43.1
– Net Position:-95,76265,08430,678
– Gross Longs:252,375489,06568,430
– Gross Shorts:348,137423,98137,752
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.865.452.8
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:12.3-11.0-9.0

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 56,786 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,379 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 53,407 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 47.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 47.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:29.042.26.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:13.560.73.7
– Net Position:56,786-68,01711,231
– Gross Longs:106,199154,69324,973
– Gross Shorts:49,413222,71013,742
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):47.547.887.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:16.6-24.242.1

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 21,392 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -6,608 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 28,000 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 66.5 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 38.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 72.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:14.246.815.2
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.859.68.8
– Net Position:21,392-42,78521,393
– Gross Longs:47,142155,11950,474
– Gross Shorts:25,750197,90429,081
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):66.538.472.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:0.2-22.247.9

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of 0 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.582.20.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.272.80.2
– Net Position:-5,6515,515136
– Gross Longs:9,66248,086270
– Gross Shorts:15,31342,571134
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 12.0 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.316.353.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.616.1-2.2

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Brent Failed to Rise Despite Improved Sentiment

By RoboForex Analytical Department

Crude oil prices have paused in their rally. Brent quotes on Monday dropped to 79.20 USD per barrel.

One of the reasons for this local decline might be the market decision to lock in a part of the profit after the steady growth earlier. This version is also supported by the fact that today is the first work day after the weekend.

At the same time, the commodity market sentiment improved noticeably over the last week. Large investment houses still expect a shortage in crude oil supply in the second half of this year, which looks like a favourable factor, keeping in mind the current demand parameters.

The buyers are equally supported by the fundamental background. The geopolitical situation in Libya is unstable, which might lead to problems with the supply of energy carriers.

Technical analysis of Brent:

On the H4 Brent chart, the structure of the third wave of growth is developing. At a certain point, the quotes rose to 78.00. A consolidation range formed around this level, the price broke it upwards and extended to 81.45. Today the market is correcting this growth. A technical return to 78.00 is expected with a test of this level from above. Next, a rise to 84.00 is to follow. This is a local target. After the quotes reach this level, a new correction to 78.00 could develop, followed by an increase to 85.00. This is the first target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD: its signal line is at the highs, moving out of the histogram area, which is a signal in favour of a decline to zero.

On the H1 Brent chart, a corrective wave to 78.00 is developing. After it is over, a wave of growth to 84.00 is expected to start. This is a local target. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator: its signal line is under 20, ready to go on growing to 50. And if this level also breaks, the potential for a rise to 80 could open.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

COT Energy Charts: Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas 

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 11th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil and Natural Gas

COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as five out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other one market had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (32,004 contracts) with Natural Gas (12,020 contracts), Gasoline (7,393 contracts), Heating Oil (301 contracts) and Bloomberg Commodity Index (95 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy market leading the declines in speculator bets this week was Brent Crude Oil with a decrease of -8,158 contracts also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-11-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,796,34836173,4339-196,6889323,25526
Corn1,241,94077,8112335,21581-43,02652
Natural Gas1,236,80256-86,7553755,5546231,20154
Sugar877,69543196,30460-226,0304129,72641
Soybeans622,5091190,86325-77,18070-13,68368
Gold483,17028165,75450-187,7495121,99535
Heating Oil320,0014428,00079-47,7283119,72867
Wheat297,1467-40,4113845,50665-5,09556
Copper197,78541-11,157217,915783,24239
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Brent134,6628-48,0311846,617871,41428
Silver120,282620,29247-31,6495611,35729
Platinum71,007727,78734-13,912656,12550
Palladium15,772100-8,27208,765100-49312

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) and Heating Oil (79.0 percent) lead the energy close to the top of their respective ranges. Gasoline (41.9 percent) comes in as the next highest energy market in strength scores.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) and Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) come in at the lowest strength scores currently and are in Extreme-Bearish levels (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (8.5 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.7 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (17.7 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (34.0 percent)
Natural Gas (37.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (32.6 percent)
Gasoline (41.9 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (29.7 percent)
Heating Oil (79.0 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (78.4 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (84.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (83.9 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (18.2 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent), Gasoline (9.5 percent) and Natural Gas (7.7 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (2.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.6 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (10.5 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (15.8 percent)
Natural Gas (7.7 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (5.4 percent)
Gasoline (9.5 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (-2.1 percent)
Heating Oil (18.2 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (35.1 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.0 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.3 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 173,433 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 32,004 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 141,429 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 8.5 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 93.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 25.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:18.939.05.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.249.93.7
– Net Position:173,433-196,68823,255
– Gross Longs:339,297700,01989,390
– Gross Shorts:165,864896,70766,135
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):8.593.025.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:2.6-0.9-14.1

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -48,031 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -8,158 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -39,873 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 17.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 87.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 28.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:10.254.15.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:45.819.54.5
– Net Position:-48,03146,6171,414
– Gross Longs:13,70472,8347,524
– Gross Shorts:61,73526,2176,110
– Long to Short Ratio:0.2 to 12.8 to 11.2 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):17.787.428.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.5-4.7-40.2

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -86,755 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 12,020 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -98,775 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 37.4 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 61.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.439.25.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:27.434.73.2
– Net Position:-86,75555,55431,201
– Gross Longs:251,784484,75870,705
– Gross Shorts:338,539429,20439,504
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.1 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):37.461.554.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:7.7-7.80.0

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 53,407 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 7,393 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 46,014 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 41.9 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 56.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 71.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.844.46.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.262.54.3
– Net Position:53,407-62,1648,757
– Gross Longs:95,389152,40723,514
– Gross Shorts:41,982214,57114,757
– Long to Short Ratio:2.3 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):41.956.571.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:9.5-13.823.9

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of 28,000 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 301 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 27,699 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 79.0 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 30.5 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.346.014.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.660.98.5
– Net Position:28,000-47,72819,728
– Gross Longs:52,184147,07646,782
– Gross Shorts:24,184194,80427,054
– Long to Short Ratio:2.2 to 10.8 to 11.7 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):79.030.566.7
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:18.2-39.552.4

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week reached a net position of -5,651 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly gain of 95 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,746 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 84.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 54.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:12.186.60.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.276.70.2
– Net Position:-5,6515,508143
– Gross Longs:6,69848,079269
– Gross Shorts:12,34942,571126
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 12.1 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):84.316.254.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.015.1-0.8

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Monday July 03 2023 and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by Brent Crude Oil

COT energy market speculator bets were mixed this week as three out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other three markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was Brent Crude Oil (17,049 contracts) with WTI Crude Oil (3,041 contracts) and Heating Oil (3,599 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-5,975 contracts) with Gasoline (-1,666 contracts) and the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-350 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-03-2023
OI
OI-Index
Spec-Net
Spec-Index
Com-Net
COM-Index
Smalls-Net
Smalls-Index
WTI Crude1,816,04337141,4291-170,1489928,71937
Corn1,246,983846,4032852476-46,92746
Natural Gas1,241,41957-98,7753368,3136730,46252
Sugar863,84340199,36861-229,7133930,34542
Soybeans610,352890,97325-71,92472-19,04955
Gold448,06312163,09749-184,7175321,62034
Heating Oil305,6813827,69978-41,8104014,11147
Wheat297,9337-45,4643451,05370-5,58954
Copper204,399461,88832-4,003682,11532
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Brent127,0191-39,8733438,114701,75933
Silver114,421017,99044-29,5695811,57931
Platinum69,383708,06734-13,570655,50342
Palladium14,781100-7,89008,358100-46814

 


Strength Scores led by Bloomberg Commodity Index and Heating Oil

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) and Heating Oil (78.4 percent) lead the energy near the top of their respective ranges.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is in a Bearish-Extreme level (below 20 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (0.7 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (34.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (0.0 percent)
Natural Gas (32.6 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (35.0 percent)
Gasoline (29.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (32.5 percent)
Heating Oil (78.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (71.6 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (83.9 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (85.2 percent)

Strength Trends led by Heating Oil

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that Heating Oil (35.1 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week.

Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent), WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) and Gasoline (-2.1 percent) lead the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (-12.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (-12.9 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (15.8 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-28.6 percent)
Natural Gas (5.4 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.4 percent)
Gasoline (-2.1 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (11.6 percent)
Heating Oil (35.1 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (27.9 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-15.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-13.9 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 141,429 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,041 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 138,388 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish-Extreme with a score of 0.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 99.2 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 36.5 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.540.64.8
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:9.750.03.2
– Net Position:141,429-170,14828,719
– Gross Longs:316,998737,22887,049
– Gross Shorts:175,569907,37658,330
– Long to Short Ratio:1.8 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):0.799.236.5
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bearish-ExtremeBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-12.611.09.0

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -39,873 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly rise of 17,049 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -56,922 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 34.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 70.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 33.0 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.750.06.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:43.120.05.2
– Net Position:-39,87338,1141,759
– Gross Longs:14,88263,5428,338
– Gross Shorts:54,75525,4286,579
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.5 to 11.3 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):34.070.033.0
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:15.8-14.6-11.3

 


Natural Gas Futures:

The Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -98,775 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -5,975 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -92,800 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 32.6 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 66.7 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 52.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.539.65.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.534.13.1
– Net Position:-98,77568,31330,462
– Gross Longs:254,883491,19869,432
– Gross Shorts:353,658422,88538,970
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):32.666.752.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:5.4-5.1-2.3

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

The Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 46,014 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -1,666 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 47,680 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.7 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 69.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:27.045.77.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:12.662.74.6
– Net Position:46,014-54,4808,466
– Gross Longs:86,285146,03123,246
– Gross Shorts:40,271200,51114,780
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.767.869.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-2.1-3.122.3

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

The #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of 27,699 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lift of 3,599 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 24,100 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 78.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 39.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 47.2 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:17.944.414.3
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.858.09.7
– Net Position:27,699-41,81014,111
– Gross Longs:54,613135,61143,667
– Gross Shorts:26,914177,42129,556
– Long to Short Ratio:2.0 to 10.8 to 11.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):78.439.947.2
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:35.1-40.022.5

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week recorded a net position of -5,746 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly decline of -350 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,396 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 83.9 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 16.4 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.886.80.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:22.176.80.2
– Net Position:-5,7465,553193
– Gross Longs:6,51448,124294
– Gross Shorts:12,26042,571101
– Long to Short Ratio:0.5 to 11.1 to 12.9 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):83.916.455.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-15.315.30.2

 


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*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

All information and opinions on this website and in this article are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.