Archive for Energy – Page 10

Trade Of The Week: Are Oil Bulls Back In Town?

By ForexTime 

Oil prices have hijacked our attention after surging to their highest level since November 2022!

The global commodity rallied over 7% last week after Russia announced that it will extend export curbs, with other supply and demand factors complementing upside gains.

Given how WTI crude simply cut through key weekly resistance like a hot knife through butter, bulls could be back in town. Taking a quick look at the technical picture, the trend is turning bullish with another potential breakout on the horizon.

Here are 3 reasons why oil could extend gains in September:

  1. Signs of tight supply

Oil bulls continue to draw ample strength from the prospect of tightening crude supply thanks to production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.

  • Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter has announced curbs will be extended in October – with more details of the reductions to be unveiled in the coming days. It is worth keeping in mind that Russia has already cut production by 500,000 bpd in August and will cut exports by 300,000 bpd in September in an effort to ensure market stability.
  • Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of OPEC is widely expected to take a similar action by also extending its voluntary 1 million bpd oil production cut into October, even as oil prices push higher.

Should these curb extensions become a reality, this could keep oil bulls in the driving seat – leading to higher prices.

  1. Energy demand optimism

China’s recent efforts to bolster economic growth coupled with growing speculation around the Fed ending its aggressive hiking campaign bodes well for the demand outlook.

  • China has been plastered in the headlines after rolling out new measures of stimulus measures to stimulate its economy, as investor concerns over the growth outlook persist. This development has somewhat boosted sentiment towards the world’s largest energy consumer, lifting optimism over rising demand.
  • Last Friday’s mixed US jobs report supported expectations around the Federal Reserve already ending its aggressive hiking cycle. Should this become a reality, it could be a welcome development for oil as lower interest rates support economic growth – translating to higher demand for oil.
  1. Bullish technical forces

After bouncing within a wide range since November 2022, WTI Crude experienced a solid breakout above the $83.70 resistance level last week.

Oil seems to be gaining positive momentum on the daily charts with prices trading above the 50,100 and 200-day SMA. There have been consistently higher highs and higher lows while the MACD trades above zero.

  • Bulls remain in a position of power and could push the global commodity higher if a solid breakout above $86 is secured.
  • Beyond this level, the next key points of interest can be found at $89.50 and $93 – a level not seen since August 2022.
  • A decline back below $83.70 may trigger a selloff towards $83. If this level is breached, bears may target the 50-day SMA around $78.50.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Brent Oil on an Upward Trajectory: A Comprehensive Overview

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of Brent crude oil is showing positive momentum, stabilizing at approximately $88.57 per barrel as of Monday. The market sentiment is predominantly bullish.

This upward trend is supported by encouraging economic data from both China and the United States. Specifically, China’s business activity outperformed expectations in August, lending some optimism to projections for oil demand. However, it’s worth noting that the strength of the U.S. dollar could act as a moderating factor on crude oil price gains.

In terms of supply, Baker Hughes’ recent statistics reveal that the count of active oil rigs in the U.S. remains stable at 512 units. Meanwhile, Canada saw a minor decline, with one rig going offline, bringing its total to 114 units.

Technical Analysis of Brent Oil

On the 4-hour chart for Brent, the price trajectory suggests robust growth. This upward movement can be interpreted as targeting a level of $93.93. Once this price target is achieved, a price correction to $87.70 is anticipated, potentially accompanied by a retest from above. Subsequently, analysts expect the price to climb to the initial target of $104.00. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line directed sharply upward, indicating the possibility of reaching new highs.

On the 1-hour chart, Brent has already seen a surge to $87.70, and a consolidation pattern has emerged around this price point. A breakout above this level has set the stage for an extension to $90.00, from where the upward trend could potentially continue to $93.93. The Stochastic oscillator lends technical support to this scenario; its signal line has bounced off the 20-point level and is advancing toward 50. Should it surpass this level, further upward movement to 80 is highly likely.

In summary, both short-term and medium-term technical indicators suggest that Brent oil prices are poised for further gains, although external economic factors could introduce some volatility.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Will the fallout from Prigozhin ‘plane crash’ hit oil prices?

By George Prior

Oil prices are likely to become volatile amid the fallout from the alleged killing of Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin in a plane crash that is reported to be on the orders of Russian President, Vladimir Putin.

The assessment from Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory, asset management and fintech organizations, comes as Russian aviation authorities say Prigozhin, the leader of the infamous mercenary group who was denounced as a traitor by Putin following an attempted coup 60 days ago, was among 10 people killed in a plane crash near Moscow on Wednesday.

“Some reports say that Wagner mercenaries can be expected to take revenge on Putin and Defence Minister Shoigu for the death of their leader. Other reports say that Prigozhin, in fact, avoided the killing and will be even more on the war path with Putin,” says Nigel Green.

“Either way, it appears the situation is becoming even more fragile and vulnerable for Vladimir Putin, at least in the short term.

“Some analysts are even warning that this situation could ultimately lead to his downfall and potentially lead to civil war and/or the possible fragmentation of Russia.”

He continues: “A weakening of Vladimir Putin’s stronghold on power could potentially have an impact, albeit not directly, on oil prices as his influence is closely tied to Russia’s oil production and its geopolitical positioning.

“A power struggle or political instability in Russia will introduce uncertainty to global oil markets.

“Geopolitical tensions, disruptions in oil supply routes, or military conflicts, will cause temporary supply disruptions and drive oil price volatility.”

The deVere CEO says oil prices are “particularly vulnerable” right now to the Prigozhin news as the market is “concerned about the pace of China’s economic growth” and as investors monitor the Jackson Hole Federal Reserve meeting which starts Thursday, which “could provide more hints as to whether interest rates will remain higher for longer.”

He concludes: “The situation is looking precarious on many levels for Putin, and we expect that this will contribute to short-term turbulence in the price of oil.

“Oil prices have a substantial influence on wider financial markets due to their far-reaching impact on economies, industries, and consumer behaviours.”

About:

deVere Group is one of the world’s largest independent advisors of specialist global financial solutions to international, local mass affluent, and high-net-worth clients.  It has a network of offices across the world, over 80,000 clients and $12bn under advisement.

Can “golden cross” save Brent bulls?

By ForexTime

  • Brent’s 50-day SMA could soon cross above 200-day counterpart
  • However, other forces may negate bullish “golden cross” signal
  • Oil weighed down by risk of higher Venezuela/Iran supplies
  • Oil dropped on technical pullback, deteriorating China economy
  • Brent may yet return into sub-$80/bbl levels, while $88 offers strong resistance

 

 

Brent’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently teasing its 200-day counterpart.

Prices of the global oil benchmark are climbing at the time of writing as Brent tries to halt three straight days of declines.

Traders typically see a bullish signal (a sign that prices will go higher) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA to form a “golden cross”.

The last time Brent formed a “golden cross” on the daily charts was back in late-September 2020.

After that previous episode, Brent went on to soar by more than 200%, going on to peak just above $130/bbl following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

However, there are other forces at play that may offset a bullish signal from a “golden cross”.

 

Here are 4 reasons why oil prices have been falling of late:

1) US-Venezuela talks

The US is discussing with Venezuela about possibly lifting sanctions on the latter’s oil exports temporarily.

Keep in mind that Venezuela boasts of the largest crude oil reserves in the world (though its refining capabilities are limited).

Should these sanctions be lifted, it risks sending out more crude oil into the world.

NOTE: Greater supply tends to translate into lower prices, all else equal.

The Biden administration is dangling this carrot so that Venezuela would hold fair elections in 2024, while lower prices at the pump would also placate the US voter base.

 

2) Iran’s exports surge

Iranian oil, which is sanctioned, has been making its way into China at the highest level in about a decade!

When China, as the world’s largest crude importer, is taking in such shipments, it lessens the need for China to buy oil from other producers, prompting depressed global oil prices.

 

3) China’s waning recovery

Much has already been made about China’s stuttering economy, as wary consumers have heaped more pressure on China’s property sector, which in turn risk financial instability.

Oil markets are concerned about the sluggish demand levels in the world’s second largest economy, and also the world’s largest crude importer, which has led to falling oil prices.

NOTE: Lower demand tends to lead to lower prices, all else equal.

 

4) Technical pullback

Brent bulls could do no better than the $88/bbl handle earlier this month, which makes sense given that that price region has capped Brent since last November.

That peak also saw Brent’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) – another widely used technical indicator – breaking into “overbought” territory.

That technical event signalled that Brent was indeed ripe for a pullback, and it duly did (see chart above).

 

Brent looks past positive catalysts

The above factors even prompted oil markets to shrug off signs that oil inventories worldwide are around a 6-year low.

Also, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week reported a larger-than-expected 6.1 million barrel drawdown in US inventories to reach its lowest levels since December!

 

 

Where to next for Brent?

From a fundamental perspective, of course it boils down to the supply-demand equation.

 

Further declines in Brent prices may prompt Saudi Arabia and Russia to further crimp their oil shipments.

Such supply cuts may then shore up Brent price and help them stay close to the $88.00 resistance zone.

 

However, Brent may languish back in sub-$80/bbl levels if the Chinese economy continues to produce worrying signs, coupled with the risk of more oil supplies out of Venezuela and Iran to offset Saudi/Russia’s lowered shipments.

If further declines aren’t thwarted at the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, then the 100-day SMA may then be called for support just below the psychologically-important $80/bbl mark over the near term.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

The crude oil finds stability amidst price recovery

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market has stabilised as the new week begins. The price of a barrel of Brent is hovering around 85.40 USD.

The price recovery is observed for the third consecutive day. Market expectations are tied to China: there are reasons to believe that the Chinese authorities will implement additional measures in their stimulus-driven economic policy.

Meanwhile, market players continue to exercise caution. The Federal Reserve System recently announced its readiness to continue tightening its monetary policy to combat inflation. At the same time, the economic outlook for China remains uncertain.

Technical analysis of Spot Brent Crude Oil:

On the H4 Brent chart, the price has rebounded from the support level and is now developing an ascending wave to 88.50. This is a local target. After the price reaches it, a link of declining correction to 85.75 might follow (with a test from above). Next thing, a rise to 94.50 could be expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, whose signal line has left the histogram area and is aimed strictly upwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, a structure of an impulse to rise to 85.30 has formed. Today a narrow consolidation range is expected to develop below it. An escape from the range upwards might facilitate the development of a wave to 86.66, from where the trend could continue to 88.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator with the signal line under 80, ready to renew the highs.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

Crude hovers above critical support

By ForexTime

  • Crude oil tumbles towards key $79 support
  • Prices still remain above moving averages
  • ADX indicator signals weak bearish move
  • Bears could attack 50 EMA if $79 support breached
  • A rebound from $79 could re-open doors to $83

Crude oil prices broke through the $83 resistance level which held for 184 trading days to close at $84.25 on 9th August 2023, and since then have declined back towards the $79 support level at the time of writing.

This decline is in no little way thanks to negative economic data out of China, the world’s largest exporter of goods, and with key levels in sight it may continue further.

Sitting above the important $79 price, a level not broken since the 25th of July, bears will be looking for a close below for Crude prices to extend their decline albeit with the moving averages in sight.

Crude is above its moving averages signaling a bullish trend, but with prices’ reversion to the mean, we see the moving averages contract, signaling a drop in momentum but much more, a pending impulse move in waiting.

A break below the psychologically important price level of $79 could see prices test the 50-day EMA, a potentially strong support area given, the cluster of moving averages.

With a failure to break the $79 price level bulls may be emboldened to return and push price back to test the $83 resistance handle while seeking highs above $84.91, reached at the false break.

A move to the upside could see the emergence of a golden cross- this is when 50-day EMA crosses over the 200-day EMA to the upside-, signaling a strong uptrend.

Further clarity may be gotten from the ADX – an indicator that shows us trend strength.

At the time of writing, we see the ADX continue its decline toward the 20-point threshold.

This decline started after the ADX peaked on the 1st of August as Crude prices approached the psychologically important $83 price level, signaling a weak bullish run nearing its possible end. This ADX decline has continued, following Crude price declines from the $84.91 highs of 10th August 2023, signaling a tame bearish move for the past 5 trading days.

Both bulls and bears will be looking for an upward sloping ADX with the DI+ and DI- respectively, locked in step, for a confirmation of their bias.


Forex-Time-LogoArticle by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

Murrey Math Lines 11.08.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In these circumstances, the quotes are expected to break the 4/8 (87.50) level and reach the resistance level at 5/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 3/8 (84.38). In this case, the quotes could drop to 2/8 (81.25).

BRENTH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, price growth might be additionally supported by a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel.

BRENT_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes have broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4 and are now below it, which indicates a potential downtrend. The RSI has rebounded from the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 2/8 (4453.1) level, break it, and fall to the support at 1/8 (4414.1). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the resistance at 3/8 (4492.2). In this case, the S&P 500 index could return to 4/8 (4531.2).

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price decline.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

Murrey Math Lines 04.08.2023 (Brent, S&P 500)

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent quotes are hovering above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI has broken the resistance line. As a result, in this situation, the price is expected to grow further to the nearest resistance at 4/8 (87.50). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 3/8 (84.38). In this case, the Brent quotes could return to 2/8 (81.25).

BrentH4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, the upper line of the VoltyChannel has been broken, which increases the probability of a further price rise.

Brent_M15
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, which indicates a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is nearing the resistance line. Currently, the price is expected to test the 4/8 (4531.2) level, rebound from it and decline to the support at 2/8 (4453.1). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the resistance at 4/8 (4531.2). In this case, the S&P 500 index could continue to rise and reach 5/8 (4570.3).

S&P 500_H4
Risk Warning: the result of previous trading operations do not guarantee the same results in the future

On M15, after the price tests the 4/8 (4531.2) level, an additional signal for the price to fall could be a breakout of the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel.

S&P 500_M15

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author’s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

COT Energy Charts: Speculator Bets led by WTI Crude & Brent Crude Oil

By InvestMacro

Here are the latest charts and statistics for the Commitment of Traders (COT) data published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

The latest COT data is updated through Tuesday July 25th and shows a quick view of how large traders (for-profit speculators and commercial hedgers) were positioned in the futures markets.

Weekly Speculator Changes led by WTI Crude Oil

The COT energy market speculator bets were higher this week as four out of the six energy markets we cover had higher positioning this week while the other two markets had lower contracts.

Leading the gains for energy markets was WTI Crude Oil (19,097 contracts) with Brent Crude Oil (3,420 contracts), Heating Oil (3,106 contracts) and Gasoline (1,965 contracts) also showing positive weeks.

The energy markets leading the declines in speculator bets this week were Natural Gas (-1,359 contracts) with the Bloomberg Commodity Index (-522 contracts) also registering lower bets on the week.

The WTI Crude Oil speculative positioning has risen for four straight weeks and has added a total of +86,808 contracts to the current bullish spec position in just these past four weeks. The current speculator standing for WTI is now at the highest level in thirteen weeks, dating back to April 25th.


Data Snapshot of Commodity Market Traders | Columns Legend
Jul-25-2023OIOI-IndexSpec-NetSpec-IndexCom-NetCOM-IndexSmalls-NetSmalls-Index
WTI Crude1,743,59831225,19622-250,9768025,78031
Gold476,17625173,63953-198,2104724,57142
Silver146,8983636,92571-49,7183412,79337
Copper234,713701,15932-3,904682,74536
Palladium16,760100-8,37708,899100-52210
Platinum64,1974815,48751-20,441514,95434
Natural Gas1,185,63846-97,1213370,9726826,14942
Brent135,1858-42,3502939,044723,30654
Heating Oil324,6104624,49872-48,4682923,97081
Soybeans676,64322134,98242-116,87656-18,10657
Corn1,280,2071270,47632-6,96675-63,51024
Coffee180,11838,49536-8,05268-4437
Sugar911,18551219,81469-251,3973331,58343
Wheat311,33915-20,5555227,40151-6,84650

 


Strength Scores

Strength Scores (a normalized measure of Speculator positions over a 3-Year range, from 0 to 100 where above 80 is extreme bullish and below 20 is extreme bearish) show that the Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) and the Heating Oil (72.4 percent) lead the energy category currently.

On the downside, WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) comes in at the lowest strength level currently and is followed by Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent).

Strength Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (21.8 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (17.0 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (29.0 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (22.2 percent)
Natural Gas (33.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (33.8 percent)
Gasoline (50.8 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (47.5 percent)
Heating Oil (72.4 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (66.5 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (82.3 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (84.3 percent)

Strength Trends

Strength Score Trends (or move index, calculates the 6-week changes in strength scores) show that WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) leads the past six weeks trends for energy this week. Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent), Gasoline (10.7 percent) and Natural Gas (10.3 percent) fill out the top movers in the latest trends data.

The Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) leads the downside trend scores currently.

Strength Trend Statistics:
WTI Crude Oil (17.6 percent) vs WTI Crude Oil previous week (8.4 percent)
Brent Crude Oil (11.3 percent) vs Brent Crude Oil previous week (-6.6 percent)
Natural Gas (10.3 percent) vs Natural Gas previous week (12.3 percent)
Gasoline (10.7 percent) vs Gasoline previous week (16.6 percent)
Heating Oil (6.6 percent) vs Heating Oil previous week (0.2 percent)
Bloomberg Commodity Index (-17.7 percent) vs Bloomberg Commodity Index previous week (-15.6 percent)


Individual COT Market Charts:

WTI Crude Oil Futures:

WTI Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe WTI Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 225,196 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly increase of 19,097 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 206,099 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 21.8 percent. The commercials are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 80.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 30.6 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

WTI Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.136.85.0
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:7.251.23.5
– Net Position:225,196-250,97625,780
– Gross Longs:350,507642,19586,919
– Gross Shorts:125,311893,17161,139
– Long to Short Ratio:2.8 to 10.7 to 11.4 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):21.880.330.6
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullish-ExtremeBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:17.6-15.6-6.9

 


Brent Crude Oil Futures:

Brent Last Day Crude Oil Futures COT ChartThe Brent Crude Oil Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -42,350 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 3,420 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -45,770 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 29.0 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 71.9 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 53.9 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Brent Crude Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:11.051.86.4
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:42.322.93.9
– Net Position:-42,35039,0443,306
– Gross Longs:14,81069,9818,633
– Gross Shorts:57,16030,9375,327
– Long to Short Ratio:0.3 to 12.3 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):29.071.953.9
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:11.3-12.12.9

 


Natural Gas Futures:

Natural Gas Futures COT ChartThe Natural Gas Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -97,121 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly lowering of -1,359 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -95,762 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bearish with a score of 33.3 percent. The commercials are Bullish with a score of 67.8 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bearish with a score of 42.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Natural Gas Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:20.740.05.7
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:28.934.03.5
– Net Position:-97,12170,97226,149
– Gross Longs:245,779473,71967,603
– Gross Shorts:342,900402,74741,454
– Long to Short Ratio:0.7 to 11.2 to 11.6 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):33.367.842.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BearishBullishBearish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.3-6.5-22.9

 


Gasoline Blendstock Futures:

RBOB Gasoline Energy Futures COT ChartThe Gasoline Blendstock Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 58,751 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly boost of 1,965 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 56,786 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 50.8 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 46.1 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.1 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Long Position.

Nasdaq Mini Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:30.541.46.6
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:14.560.33.7
– Net Position:58,751-69,17310,422
– Gross Longs:111,892152,04324,044
– Gross Shorts:53,141221,21613,622
– Long to Short Ratio:2.1 to 10.7 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):50.846.182.1
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:10.7-17.836.8

 


#2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures:

NY Harbor Heating Oil Energy Futures COT ChartThe #2 Heating Oil NY-Harbor Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of 24,498 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly advance of 3,106 contracts from the previous week which had a total of 21,392 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish with a score of 72.4 percent. The commercials are Bearish with a score of 29.3 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish-Extreme with a score of 81.4 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Weak Downtrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Weak Downtrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: Hold – Maintain Short Position.

Heating Oil Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:15.545.117.1
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:8.060.19.7
– Net Position:24,498-48,46823,970
– Gross Longs:50,444146,54855,411
– Gross Shorts:25,946195,01631,441
– Long to Short Ratio:1.9 to 10.8 to 11.8 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):72.429.381.4
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):BullishBearishBullish-Extreme
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:6.6-28.149.0

 


Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures:

Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures COT ChartThe Bloomberg Commodity Index Futures large speculator standing this week came in at a net position of -6,173 contracts in the data reported through Tuesday. This was a weekly fall of -522 contracts from the previous week which had a total of -5,651 net contracts.

This week’s current strength score (the trader positioning range over the past three years, measured from 0 to 100) shows the speculators are currently Bullish-Extreme with a score of 82.3 percent. The commercials are Bearish-Extreme with a score of 18.0 percent and the small traders (not shown in chart) are Bullish with a score of 55.3 percent.

Price Trend-Following Model: Strong Uptrend

Our weekly trend-following model classifies the current market price position as: Strong Uptrend. The current action for the model is considered to be: New Buy – Long Position.

Bloomberg Index Futures StatisticsSPECULATORSCOMMERCIALSSMALL TRADERS
– Percent of Open Interest Longs:16.282.60.5
– Percent of Open Interest Shorts:26.772.40.1
– Net Position:-6,1735,973200
– Gross Longs:9,52448,544279
– Gross Shorts:15,69742,57179
– Long to Short Ratio:0.6 to 11.1 to 13.5 to 1
NET POSITION TREND:
– Strength Index Score (3 Year Range Pct):82.318.055.3
– Strength Index Reading (3 Year Range):Bullish-ExtremeBearish-ExtremeBullish
NET POSITION MOVEMENT INDEX:
– 6-Week Change in Strength Index:-17.718.0-1.3

 


Article By InvestMacroReceive our weekly COT Newsletter

*COT Report: The COT data, released weekly to the public each Friday, is updated through the most recent Tuesday (data is 3 days old) and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) were positioned in the futures markets.

The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators) as well as their open interest (contracts open in the market at time of reporting). See CFTC criteria here.

Green Tech Co. Signs Letter of Intent to Sell First Solar Tower

Source: Streetwise Reports  (7/25/23)

For this green tech company looking to save space on solar power installations, the agreement is proof that its technology is commercially legitimate.

Green tech company Three Sixty Solar (VSOL:NEO;VSOLF:OTC) announced it had signed a non-binding letter of intent for the sale and installation of its first solar tower.

The agreement with Cattail Crossing Golf and Winter Club in Sturgeon County, Alberta, indicates the club’s intent to install a Three Sixty Solar tower to generate power for the golf course and the clubhouse.

Three Sixty’s solar towers build up instead of out to save space, rising vertically instead of covering acres of ground horizontally, leaving up to 80% to 90% more room for other economic or preservation purposes.

“They have substantial power needs and don’t want to give up their land because, obviously, that takes up space they need for the course,” Three Sixty Solar Chief Executive Officer Brian Roth told Streetwise Reports.

For Three Sixty, it’s an important step and a proof of concept for the technology, he said.

Three Sixty’s technology is a “big deal” because most solar farms are in rural areas, leading to energy leakage getting the electricity across distances and to market, Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote.

“The biggest thing is just as we work through the commercialization process, it’s proof that it’s commercially legitimate and that people are willing to pay and move forward on projects that are not just demonstrations or R&D funded,” Roth said.

Three Sixty’s technology is a “big deal” because most solar farms are in rural areas, leading to energy leakage getting the electricity across distances and to market, Technical Analyst Clive Maund wrote.

In addition, the vast areas of land consumed by these solar arrays generally mean that it can’t be used for anything else, so there is a serious opportunity cost loss as well, he said.

The company’s vertical tower arrays can be built virtually anywhere, including in cities, and they take up little space.

“Three Sixty Solar’s towers will eventually render all these vast acreages of solar panels all over the place obsolete,” Maund wrote. “This being so, its stock has the potential to appreciate by many thousands of percent.”

‘Ideal Solution’ Does Not Sacrifice Land

According to the letter of intent, the parties plan to begin a feasibility study on the site as quickly as possible with the goal of reaching a binding purchase order by Aug. 31.

According to a Stratistics MRC report, the global market for solar energy accounted for US$76 billion in 2020 and is forecasted to reach US$296 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%.

Cattail Crossing owner Mark Beck said the club had been looking for ways to add renewable energy to the operation, but he couldn’t find anything suitable for the land.

“The solar towers offered by Three Sixty are such a unique approach that we can easily make it fit and generate power for our irrigation systems, cart charging, and more,” Beck said. “We are looking forward to working with Three Sixty and becoming an advocate for the solar tower solution to our friends in the golf community.”

Three Sixty’s solar technology is an “ideal solution” for the club “to provide power for operations without sacrificing the land they need for the course and clubhouse,” Roth said.

The Catalyst: Targeting Net Zero Emissions

Driving the growth is an increase in pollution, a surge in rooftop applications, and increased adoption in agriculture, the report said.

Solar power uses photovoltaic cells and other technologies to capture the sun’s radiant energy, which is efficient and renewable and mitigates environmental risks coming from options creating greenhouse gas emissions.

According to the Solar Energy Industries Association, the cost to install the equipment has dropped by 50% over the last decade, leading to the deployment of thousands of new systems in new markets.

Governments are giving big incentives, as well. Canada is targeting net zero emissions by 2050 and has launched a CA$964 million program, Three Sixty Solar said. The United States Inflation Reduction Act commits US$370 billion to fund green energy, and the European Union has an energy target of at least 32% from solar by 2030. The European Green New Deal envisions a climate-neutral continent by 2050.

Countries have been “throwing record amounts of money at these types of technologies and trying to green our electricity grid,” Roth said. “There’s just a huge opportunity to clean up our electricity production while . . .  being very cost competitive with the older technologies.”

According to a Stratistics MRC report, the global market for solar energy accounted for US$76 billion in 2020 and is forecasted to reach US$296 billion by 2028, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5%.

Demonstration Tower Declared a Success

There are three models of towers, which soar from 40 feet to 120 feet tall and produce as much as 250 kilowatts per tower, the company said. They are manufactured in Canada and the U.S., approved by a U.S.-licensed engineer, and support many solar panel brands.

A demonstration tower in Kelowna, British Columbia that was in operation for 16 months was declared a success after it survived a major windstorm with gusts as high as 84 mph, intense rain and hail, and a snowstorm with no structural or panel damage.

The vertical positioning of the panels on the tower also prevented snow from covering the panels, which often inhibits power production in flatter, ground-mounted installations, the company said.

The Cattail Crossing tower will be proof that the solar towers are commercially viable, Roth said.

“And it will be an opportunity for us to go through the delivery process and continue to refine that,” he said.

The tower’s design enables it to be built with different materials to survive threats in different environments, such as surviving earthquakes in California or surviving hurricanes in Florida.

Power production and add-ons like telecommunications arrays and EV charging stations are opportunities to create more recurring revenue from the towers, Roth said.

Three Sixty Solar has applied for patents with the World Patent Office and others in North America, the European Union, and Africa.

Ownership and Share Structure

According to the company, about 21% of Three Sixty Solar is held by management and insiders. The CEO Roth owns 3.43%, founder and Director Peter Sherba owns about 30%, and Director Scott McLeod owns about 0.21%, Reuters said.

About 28% is held by strategic investors, and the rest, about 51%, is retail.

Three Sixty Solar’s market cap is CA$20.23 million, with about 43.5 million shares outstanding. It trades in a 52-week range of CA$1.29 and CA$0.51.

 

Important Disclosures:

  1. Three Sixty Solar Ltd. has a consulting relationship with an affiliate of Streetwise Reports, and pays a monthly consulting fee between US$8,000 and US$20,000.
  2. As of the date of this article, officers and/or employees of Streetwise Reports LLC (including members of their household) own securities of Three Sixty Solar Ltd.
  3. Steve Sobek wrote this article for Streetwise Reports LLC and provides services to Streetwise Reports as an employee.
  4. The article does not constitute investment advice. Each reader is encouraged to consult with his or her individual financial professional. By opening this page, each reader accepts and agrees to Streetwise Reports’ terms of use and full legal disclaimer. This article is not a solicitation for investment. Streetwise Reports does not render general or specific investment advice and the information on Streetwise Reports should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Streetwise Reports does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services or securities of any company mentioned on Streetwise Reports.

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