InvestMacro

By RoboForex.com

Brent

Brent crude oil quotes and the RSI on H4 are in their respective overbought areas. In this situation, a downward breakout of 8/8 (93.75) is expected, followed by a decline to the support at 6/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by an upward breakout of +1/8 (95.31). In this case, the quotes could aim at the resistance at +2/8 (96.88).

On M15, the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel is too far from the current price, so the decline might only be supported by a downward breakout of 8/8 (93.75) on H4.

S&P 500

On H4, the S&P 500 index quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average, indicating the prevalence of an uptrend. However, the RSI has already reached the overbought area. As a result, in these circumstances, a test of 4/8 (4531.2) is expected, followed by a rebound from this level and a decline to the support at 3/8 (4492.2). The scenario can be cancelled by rising above the resistance level of 4/8 (4453.1). In this case, the S&P 500 could continue growing and reach 5/8 (4570.3).

On M15, the lower boundary of the VoltyChannel is too far from the current price, so the decline might only be supported by a rebound from 4/8 (4531.2) on H4.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.

By JustMarkets

At Tuesday’s stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.05%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.04%. Weakness in technology stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. For example, Oracle closed down more than 13% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings due to a slowdown in cloud sales. According to Morgan Stanley, Oracle’s results raise questions about the timing of artificial intelligence (AI) demand turning into revenue for the company. In addition, Apple shares were down more than 1% after introducing the iPhone 15 lineup.

On the positive side, energy stocks rallied after the price of WTI crude oil rose to a near 10-month high. In addition, shares of several regional banks rose after an upbeat outlook at the Barclays Global Financial Services Conference.

The US financial markets are awaiting the release of consumer price data on Wednesday. Economists’ median estimate is that the pace of growth in the consumer price index will accelerate to 3.6% y/y in August, although the core reading, which excludes food and energy costs, will fall to 4.3% y/y. On a month-on-month basis, however, overall CPI is forecast to rise 0.6%, which would be the biggest jump since inflation peaked in June 2022. If the data matches expectations, it will increase the likelihood of a US Fed rate hike at the November meeting and support the USD index. Currently, markets are pricing in a 7% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and a 42% chance of a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.

Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. Germany’s DAX (DE40) decreased by 0.54%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) fell by 0.11% on Tuesday, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) added 0.27%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) closed up by 0.41%

The ECB meeting will take place as early as Thursday, amid much uncertainty, as price pressures in the Eurozone remain elevated and data suggests a sharp slowdown in economic activity. The latest Spanish inflation data showed that consumer prices rose to 2.6% y/y in August, influenced by higher fuel costs, up from a 2.3% y/y reading last month. The probability of the ECB raising interest rates by 25 bps at Thursday’s meeting rose to 52% from 38% a day earlier.

Oil rose to a near 10-month high, and gasoline rose to a 2-week high. Limited global oil supplies helped boost prices on Tuesday after OPEC’s monthly report forecast global crude inventories to fall to a 10-year low. A decline in oil in floating storage is also a bullish factor for prices. On Monday, Vortexa released weekly data showing that the volume of crude oil stored in tankers afloat for at least a week fell by 5.8% from the previous month to 81.02 million barrels as of September 8, the lowest in 9 months.

Asian markets traded flat on Tuesday. Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) jumped by 0.95% yesterday, China’s FTSE China A50 (CHA50) lost 0.32%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) decreased by 0.39%, and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 (AU200) was positive by 0.20% on Tuesday.

On Monday, natural gas prices received support from a rise in European gas prices to a one-week high. LNG production workers at key Chevron facilities in Australia began a partial strike last week after talks with management failed to reach an agreement. The workers said that if no agreement is reached, they will completely stop work for two weeks starting this Thursday.

Sentiment towards China remains largely negative as a raft of economic indicators for August painted a weak picture of Asia’s largest economy. Added to this was Beijing’s slow rollout of additional stimulus measures.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) watchers shifted their forecasts for an end to negative interest rates after Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda touched on the possibility in an interview published over the weekend. Most economists believe that the BoJ will stick to its previous policy at next week’s BoJ board meeting, with the authorities predicted to abandon negative interest rates by the end of June next year.

S&P 500 (F)(US500) 4,461.90 −25.56 (−0.57%)

Dow Jones (US30) 34,645.99 −17.73 (−0.051%)

DAX (DE40)  15,715.53 −85.46 (−0.54%)

FTSE 100 (UK100) 7,527.53 +30.66 (+0.41%)

USD Index  104.54 +0.01 (+0.01%)

• – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
• – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
• – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
• – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
• – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).

By JustMarkets

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The price of Brent crude oil is showing positive momentum, stabilizing at approximately $88.57 per barrel as of Monday. The market sentiment is predominantly bullish.

This upward trend is supported by encouraging economic data from both China and the United States. Specifically, China’s business activity outperformed expectations in August, lending some optimism to projections for oil demand. However, it’s worth noting that the strength of the U.S. dollar could act as a moderating factor on crude oil price gains.

In terms of supply, Baker Hughes’ recent statistics reveal that the count of active oil rigs in the U.S. remains stable at 512 units. Meanwhile, Canada saw a minor decline, with one rig going offline, bringing its total to 114 units.

Technical Analysis of Brent Oil

On the 4-hour chart for Brent, the price trajectory suggests robust growth. This upward movement can be interpreted as targeting a level of $93.93. Once this price target is achieved, a price correction to $87.70 is anticipated, potentially accompanied by a retest from above. Subsequently, analysts expect the price to climb to the initial target of $104.00. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator corroborates this outlook, with its signal line directed sharply upward, indicating the possibility of reaching new highs.

On the 1-hour chart, Brent has already seen a surge to $87.70, and a consolidation pattern has emerged around this price point. A breakout above this level has set the stage for an extension to $90.00, from where the upward trend could potentially continue to $93.93. The Stochastic oscillator lends technical support to this scenario; its signal line has bounced off the 20-point level and is advancing toward 50. Should it surpass this level, further upward movement to 80 is highly likely.

In summary, both short-term and medium-term technical indicators suggest that Brent oil prices are poised for further gains, although external economic factors could introduce some volatility.

Disclaimer

Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By ForexTime

• Brent’s 50-day SMA could soon cross above 200-day counterpart
• However, other forces may negate bullish “golden cross” signal
• Oil weighed down by risk of higher Venezuela/Iran supplies
• Oil dropped on technical pullback, deteriorating China economy
• Brent may yet return into sub-$80/bbl levels, while $88 offers strong resistance

Brent’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is currently teasing its 200-day counterpart.

Prices of the global oil benchmark are climbing at the time of writing as Brent tries to halt three straight days of declines.

Traders typically see a bullish signal (a sign that prices will go higher) when the 50-day SMA crosses above the 200-day SMA to form a “golden cross”.

The last time Brent formed a “golden cross” on the daily charts was back in late-September 2020.

After that previous episode, Brent went on to soar by more than 200%, going on to peak just above $130/bbl following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

However, there are other forces at play that may offset a bullish signal from a “golden cross”.

Here are 4 reasons why oil prices have been falling of late:

1) US-Venezuela talks

The US is discussing with Venezuela about possibly lifting sanctions on the latter’s oil exports temporarily.

Keep in mind that Venezuela boasts of the largest crude oil reserves in the world (though its refining capabilities are limited).

Should these sanctions be lifted, it risks sending out more crude oil into the world.

NOTE: Greater supply tends to translate into lower prices, all else equal.

The Biden administration is dangling this carrot so that Venezuela would hold fair elections in 2024, while lower prices at the pump would also placate the US voter base.

2) Iran’s exports surge

Iranian oil, which is sanctioned, has been making its way into China at the highest level in about a decade!

When China, as the world’s largest crude importer, is taking in such shipments, it lessens the need for China to buy oil from other producers, prompting depressed global oil prices.

3) China’s waning recovery

Much has already been made about China’s stuttering economy, as wary consumers have heaped more pressure on China’s property sector, which in turn risk financial instability.

Oil markets are concerned about the sluggish demand levels in the world’s second largest economy, and also the world’s largest crude importer, which has led to falling oil prices.

NOTE: Lower demand tends to lead to lower prices, all else equal.

4) Technical pullback

Brent bulls could do no better than the $88/bbl handle earlier this month, which makes sense given that that price region has capped Brent since last November.

That peak also saw Brent’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) – another widely used technical indicator – breaking into “overbought” territory.

That technical event signalled that Brent was indeed ripe for a pullback, and it duly did (see chart above).

Brent looks past positive catalysts

The above factors even prompted oil markets to shrug off signs that oil inventories worldwide are around a 6-year low.

Also, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) this week reported a larger-than-expected 6.1 million barrel drawdown in US inventories to reach its lowest levels since December!

Where to next for Brent?

From a fundamental perspective, of course it boils down to the supply-demand equation.

Further declines in Brent prices may prompt Saudi Arabia and Russia to further crimp their oil shipments.

Such supply cuts may then shore up Brent price and help them stay close to the $88.00 resistance zone.

However, Brent may languish back in sub-$80/bbl levels if the Chinese economy continues to produce worrying signs, coupled with the risk of more oil supplies out of Venezuela and Iran to offset Saudi/Russia’s lowered shipments.

If further declines aren’t thwarted at the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, then the 100-day SMA may then be called for support just below the psychologically-important $80/bbl mark over the near term.

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By RoboForex Analytical Department

The commodity market has stabilised as the new week begins. The price of a barrel of Brent is hovering around 85.40 USD.

The price recovery is observed for the third consecutive day. Market expectations are tied to China: there are reasons to believe that the Chinese authorities will implement additional measures in their stimulus-driven economic policy.

Meanwhile, market players continue to exercise caution. The Federal Reserve System recently announced its readiness to continue tightening its monetary policy to combat inflation. At the same time, the economic outlook for China remains uncertain.

Technical analysis of Spot Brent Crude Oil:

On the H4 Brent chart, the price has rebounded from the support level and is now developing an ascending wave to 88.50. This is a local target. After the price reaches it, a link of declining correction to 85.75 might follow (with a test from above). Next thing, a rise to 94.50 could be expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD, whose signal line has left the histogram area and is aimed strictly upwards.

On the H1 Brent chart, a structure of an impulse to rise to 85.30 has formed. Today a narrow consolidation range is expected to develop below it. An escape from the range upwards might facilitate the development of a wave to 86.66, from where the trend could continue to 88.50. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator with the signal line under 80, ready to renew the highs.

Disclaimer

Any predictions contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis shall not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex shall not be held liable for the results of the trades arising from relying upon trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.

By ForexTime

Article by ForexTime

ForexTime Ltd (FXTM) is an award winning international online forex broker regulated by CySEC 185/12 www.forextime.com

By RoboForex.com

BRENT

Brent quotes are above the 200-day Moving Average on H4, indicating a prevailing uptrend. The RSI is testing the support line. In these circumstances, the quotes are expected to break the 4/8 (87.50) level and reach the resistance level at 5/8 (90.62). The scenario can be cancelled by a downward breakout of the support at 3/8 (84.38). In this case, the quotes could drop to 2/8 (81.25).

On M15, price growth might be additionally supported by a breakout of the upper line of the VoltyChannel.

S&P 500

S&P 500 quotes have broken the 200-day Moving Average on H4 and are now below it, which indicates a potential downtrend. The RSI has rebounded from the resistance line. In this situation, the price is expected to test the 2/8 (4453.1) level, break it, and fall to the support at 1/8 (4414.1). The scenario can be cancelled by a breakout of the resistance at 3/8 (4492.2). In this case, the S&P 500 index could return to 4/8 (4531.2).

On M15, the lower line of the VoltyChannel is broken, which increases the probability of a further price decline.

Article By RoboForex.com

Attention!
Forecasts presented in this section only reflect the author s private opinion and should not be considered as guidance for trading. RoboForex LP bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations described in these analytical reviews.